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Tag Archives: Climate change

Day to Day Politics. Climate Change: A lay person’s dilemma

Wednesday 9 December.

1 The Paris Climate talks are now in their third week. The coverage of this most important and crucial event in the Australian media has been simply sickening. Only the ABC, The Guardian and Fairfax have given it the treatment it so earnestly deserves. Murdoch has given it little coverage.

In a piece for THE AIMN I said this:

“How does the layperson like me reach a view on such subjects without any formal training? It’s simple. There are many areas (medicine for example) that I don’t have a deep analytical grasp. Like many others I listen to experts, apply common sense, observation and what my life experience tells me. It is not difficult to understand a theory. Generally people assume that a theory (for example the theory of evolution) is something unproven”.

In the scientific world, a theory is something that has evolved to fit known facts.

Conversely, those who deny Climate Change and the overwhelming scientific consensus seek to justify their belief by attaching themselves to a minority of science deniers with obscure qualifications or worse, to right-wing shock jocks and journalists with no scientific training what so ever. These people have no way of evaluating the volume of data produced by the various scientific institutions. One of the most outspoken deniers (Andrew Bolt) has, in recent times, been found guilty of deceptive lying in that he defamed some white skinned aboriginals. The Press Council also made him correct misleading figures in one of his articles. One has to wonder how many he has told when writing about his favourite topic climate change.

So for the layperson the choice is to listen to the science or default to the opinions of the Bolts of this world.

And in Paris the latest news is that the world’s biggest climate polluters rallied around a stronger target for limiting warming on Monday, saying they were open to the 1.5C goal endorsed by the most vulnerable countries.

In the final push to a climate agreement, the US, Canada, China and the European Union declared they were now on board with demands from African countries to adopt an even more ambitious goal to limit warming.

Now they are taking it seriously. Julie Bishop must be wetting herself.

2 Guardian Australia has two years to prove itself commercially viable according to a headline in Tuesday’s Australian. Now that a bit of a shocker coming from a newspaper that loses 25 million annually. If fact the only reason it is still in business is because of the power it yields. It has very little public readership but is the go to source for every conservative commentator in the country. It will die with Murdoch.

An observation.

‘It is a pity that fact in journalism cannot be made compulsory and decency legislated’.

3 Joe Hockey has said if he did not retire from the Parliament he would have been focused on “getting even with people” who contributed to his downfall as treasurer. What a shocking indictment of politics in general and his party in particular.

4 Donald Trump wants to close the United States borders to Muslims.

“Until we are able to determine and understand this problem and the dangerous threat it poses, our country cannot be the victims of horrendous attacks by people who believe only in Jihad, and have no sense of reason or respect for human life,” the billionaire real estate developer said.

I wonder if that should also apply to adults entering schools. Maybe tattoos next.

5 The Vladimir Putin Shirtfront won the Insiders Matt Price award in 2014. This year it was given to Christopher Pyne for his ‘I’m a fixer’ comment. There were some excellent entries. Abbott got the most nominations with his onion eating (without tears) act. Knighthoods, Good government starts today and in my opinion he should have been on a winner when he outrageously said that his ministers were performing fantastically well and it was all due to his magnificent leadership. Oh I forgot one. ‘Good government starts today’ Others nominated were Hockey’s ‘Just get a job. ’Scott Morrison for ‘There’s a boom up there’ Bronwyn Bishop ‘It was within the guidelines’ Then there were mentions of ministers with large packages, even snakes. There were many others but for the breadth of its audacity I’ll stick with my choice.

6 Now here is a conspiracy theory to end them all. Tony Abbott was toppled by Malcolm Turnbull, not because of gross incompetence. According to climate sceptic Christopher Monckton it was the UN who brought down Tony Abbott because of his anti-global warming views.

Wrong of course but he tells the truth about Abbott’s denialism.

MY THOUGHT FOR THE DAY

“At some time in the human narrative…..in our history, man declared himself superior to women. It must have been an accident, or at least an act of gross stupidity. But that’s men for you”.

PS. Early warning. Day to Day in Politics will be taking a break over the Christmas and New Year Periods. I will however be posting some of my short stories, poetry and other things of interest.

 

South Australia’s pathway to a low carbon future

By Dr Anthony Horton

South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill and Minister for Climate Change Ian Hunter have recently released a report outlining how the state will transition to a low carbon future. The report titled ‘South Australia’s Climate Change Strategy 2015-2050 Towards a low carbon economy’ includes more than 30 initiatives grouped into six themes. These themes are: South Australia Leading on Climate Change, Towards Net Zero Emissions, Carbon Neutral Adelaide, Innovating to Drive a Resilient and Competitive Low Carbon Economy, Creating a Prosperous and Resilient State, and Building Community Capacity to Act.

The message from Weatherill and Hunter early in the report is very clear. They see climate change presenting South Australia with massive economic opportunities, and by taking ambitious early action they believe South Australia will be best placed to maximise these opportunities. They also send the strong message for the rest of the world to look to South Australia if they want to innovate and perfect low carbon technologies to slow the pace of global warming.

I found it refreshing that the report was upfront and honest about the projected environmental impacts of climate change in South Australia – based on data and statistics from CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and the Department of Environment. Some of these environmental impacts include more hot days and prolonged high temperature spells, decreases in annual rainfall, higher intensity extreme rainfall events, and prolonged periods of drought.

“A net zero target is critical to limiting the global temperature increase to 2°C and will signal this Government’s commitment to a low carbon economy”.

The introduction of an ambitious net zero emissions target by 2050, signing of the Global Climate Leadership Memorandum of Understanding (Under2MOU) and embedding the net zero emissions target in legislation, policy, and decision making are amongst the new initiatives which Premier Weatherill and Minister Hunter believe will consolidate the State’s climate change leadership. They believe that a net zero target is critical to limiting the global temperature increase to 2°C and will signal this Government’s commitment to a low carbon economy.

Signing the Under2MOU demonstrates their Government’s commitment to reducing emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050 according to Weatherill and Hunter. The Weatherill Government will amend the Climate Change and Greenhouse Emissions Reduction Act 2007 to include the net zero emissions by 2050 target. The net zero target and Carbon Neutral Adelaide target will also be embedded into key policy documents, and both of these targets will have to be taken into account regarding future decisions in planning and infrastructure provision.

In terms of towards net zero emissions, the South Australian Government will firstly implement the Low Carbon Investment Plan which is targeting $10 billion of investment in low carbon energy generation by 2025. In addition, expressions of interest are being sought for the reduction of Government fleet vehicle emissions, with a focus on electric and hybrid vehicles. Decarbonising the transport network is another new initiative under the towards net zero emissions theme. Other components of this initiative include completing the electrification of the metropolitan rail network, reintroducing trams within the CBD and inner metropolitan routes, and extending and improving cycling and walking networks.

“A Carbon Neutral Adelaide will be a critical part of South Australia’s transition to a low carbon economy”.

According to the report, a Carbon Neutral Adelaide will be a critical part of South Australia’s transition to a low carbon economy. New initiatives under this theme in the report include developing a Carbon Neutral Adelaide action plan, installing solar PV cells on low income households, and improving the energy efficiency of Government buildings. The action plan which will include specific actions towards the carbon neutral goal will be developed in collaboration with the Adelaide City Council and published next year. Two hundred low income households will have solar PV cells installed on the roofs of their houses, and as a pilot program they will also be installed on newly constructed Australian Housing Trust properties in South Australia next year. As part of a new energy efficiency investment program for Government owned buildings, it will be mandatory for all agencies to identify and implement upgrade opportunities.

New initiatives under the Innovating to Drive a Resilient and Competitive Low Carbon Economy include launching ‘smart city’ technologies, supporting the uptake of electric vehicles, and attracting international investment. The Adelaide City Council has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Cisco to undertake a number of pilot projects including Smart Parking, Smart Public Lighting, and the establishment of an ‘Internet of Things Innovation Hub’ in Adelaide. In terms of electric vehicles, the Government will support a car share project using a vehicle provided by Go-Get. with the aim of this project to allow people to experience driving an electric car and understand the associated environmental benefits.

The South Australian Government is establishing an agency dedicated to attracting interstate and international capital, and to work with the private sector assisting with the navigation of Regulatory and Approvals processes. By focusing on existing capabilities and strengths, including advanced manufacturing, it is hoped that the agency will facilitate significant opportunities in the cleantech space.

rWdMeee6_peAbout the author: Anthony Horton holds a PhD in Environmental Science, a Bachelor of Environmental Science with Honours and a Diploma of Carbon Management. He has a track record of delivering customised solutions in Academia, Government, the Mining Industry and Consulting based on the latest wisdom and his scientific background and experience in Climate/Atmospheric Science and Air Quality. Anthony’s work has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences, and he is currently on the Editorial Board of the Journal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology. Anthony also blogs on his own site, The Climate Change Guy.

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Day to Day Politics. The heat’s on in Paris.

image

2 December

1 Malcolm Turnbull in his address the Paris Climate Conference said:

‘We do not doubt the implication of the science, or the scale of the challenge’.

I found that a bit rich given that many of his Cabinet and back bench MPs are known deniers.

Added to that, the latest research shows that barely one in four Coalition voters accepts climate change is mostly caused by humans, with more than half of Liberal voters believing changes to global temperatures are natural, according to a CSIRO survey.

However, there are a number of initiatives taking place. Australia has committed to doubling the government’s $100-million-a-year commitment to clean technology research and development as part of a global innovation project spearheaded by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, whom Mr Turnbull met on the sidelines of the event.

Mr Turnbull also said Australia would commit $1 billion over five years to helping developing countries – especially those in the Pacific – to build resilience against climate change and to cut emissions.

And where is all this money coming from? Well the Foreign Aid budget of course. And not a whimper from Julie Bishop.

He said the country would “meet and beat” its 2020 emissions reduction goal – a reduction of 5 per cent compared with 2000 levels.

Now that shouldn’t be so difficult given that Australia was given at the first Kyoto meeting, the ok to raise its emissions by 8%, as an incentive to sign the agreement.

The fact is that our target is too low and at some point, Turnbull will have to convince his party that Australia must lift its climate ambitions if it’s to do its fair share to keep global warming to less than two degrees – a case that will be easier to make if Paris produces a credible pathway to such an outcome.

He also flagged increasing the target when a review is conducted in five years’ time.

But of course the task will be made tougher without a broad-based carbon price, an approach Turnbull himself once championed – and may yet to do so again.

He also flagged increasing the target when a review is conducted in five years’ time.

But Liberal MP Dennis Jensen said the Prime Minister should stick with the position of the party room.

The back bencher said discussion about increasing the target was “a joke”.

“I will certainly be very strong on the fact that we should not change those targets and that we stick with what we agreed [in] the party room and we don’t change,” he said.

“If there’s discussion about it a couple of years’ in the future, don’t change it again.”

It is difficult to believe that Hunt and Turnbull are actually getting away with the flattering, self-ingratiating bullshit they are delivering in Paris. And the compliancy of the mainstreammedia is equally dim-witted and lacks scrutiny. But I suppose it’s what Rupert wants.

They are both slaves to the hard right conservative wing of the Coalition. After all, delivering what he is now doing in Paris, was a condition of his employment.

Finally, Australia refused to sign with 43 other countries an agreement eliminate coal subsidies. In doing so they have now admitted that they do subsidise coal. Even if under another name. (Rebates).

2 Tuesday’s Essential Poll tightens with Labor on 49% and the Coalition on 51%. Bit of a surprise that one.

3 Special Minister of State Mal Brough has made a significant comment in relation to a key admission he made on Channel Nine over his dealings with James Ashby.

‘What was put to air was not the full question’.

Really. I suggest you watch the video.

4 I won’t beg or do an Abbott arse joke but could we please have a national ICAC.

One in six exempt companies exempted from reporting from reporting financial details to Asic are political donors or government contractors.

What was that you said?

5 Tony Abbott accusing Julie Bishop of telling lies. Well I never. Well I never.

MY THOUGHT FOR THE DAY

“If we do not take action on the environment and there is no disaster the outcome will be due to luck alone, like someone winning tattslotto” Average odds 58 million to one.

‘Day to Day Politics’ with John Lord

Thursday 26 November

1 I have reached the conclusion that we have a Government of talkers, not doers. One might easily call them wafflers. They must be setting an Australian record for papers, enquiries, reports, and meetings both domestically and internationally. However I don’t foresee much doing prior to the next election. Which of course will mean that the Coalition has wasted three years of government.

2 One of the best wafflers of course is Environment \minister Greg Hunt who at yesterday’s National Press Club gave himself a glowing report prior to the Paris talks.

He said we have already reached our 5% target reduction for 2020 levels. He is correct but we have only done so because of drought, the slowdown in the economy, the decline in manufacturing and to a small extent the impact of the renewable energy target and other climate policies such as the emissions reduction fund. And of course some very dodgy, smoke and mirrors accountancy measures. Fact is the 5% was always too low and we were given an 8% increase in emissions at the first Kyoto meeting.

3 I got into a discussion with a conservative friend who insisted that Julia Gillard told the biggest political lie ever. I countered with this and I thought my friend was going to have a stroke.

One of most important moments in the life of Menzies must have been when, on 28 April 1965, he lied to the Australian Parliament and people over an alleged call for assistance from the Saigon Regime of General Nguyễn Văn Thiệu as official head of state and Air Marshall Nguyễn Cao Kỳ as prime minister. The first battalion arrived in Vietnam the following month. After March 1966 National Servicemen were sent to Vietnam to fight in units of the Australian Regular Army. Some 19,000 conscripts were sent in the following four years. 521 lost their life. The number of Australian invalid and otherwise victims of the war is still uncertain.

The document carrying the alleged call was never found.

4 International tensions are very high with the shooting down of a Russian fighter. I know it’s difficult to overcome thousands of years of fighting based on nationalism but wouldn’t it be nice if the leaders of the world opened their minds to internationalism.

To quote a friend:

‘We have entered a very dangerous moment in human history.

These developments put us on the precipice of a conflagration that could have grave consequences for the world.

We must all hope that the fullest exercise of international diplomacy and a show of good faith is made before this worsens’ (Stuart J Whitman).

5 Did you know that 58,000 people die each day from hunger and preventable diseases?

6 The Australian, the official newsletter of the Liberal Party, reports that resentment among ousted conservatives and retribution against Abbott supporters is creating a dangerous political atmosphere.

7 So have the isms of left and right gone past their used by dates? What do you think? Do they suffer from the tiredness of longevity? Is there any possibility that a new politic could emerge from a society deeply entrenched in political negativity and malaise, yet still retain the essential ingredients of a vigorous democracy? One where a wide-ranging common good test would be applied to all policy.

Have left and right so fused into each other that they no longer form a demarcation of ideas? Could the ideologies of the two somehow come together to form this commongoodism? Who would decide the common good? How could one define it? Could capitalism embrace the common good or would it need further regulation? Could conservatism which empathises individual responsibility and opportunity embrace it? What would common good values be?

That’s all a bit like political scrambled eggs I know, but they are the sort of philosophical questions I ask myself on my daily walks. You see that although I still value my leftish views I do really believe that modern political thought and practice needs a makeover. And not just nationally but internationally. But particularly in Australia where politics no longer meets the needs or aspirations of the people and is held in such low esteem that politicians are barely relevant. I have long felt that the political establishment has taken ownership of a system that should serve the people but instead serves itself. It is self-indulgent, shows no respect for the people it serves and lacks transparency.

MY THOUGHT FOR THE DAY

‘Leadership is a combination of traits that etch the outlines of a life and grow over time. They govern moral choices and demonstrate empathy toward others. It is far better for those with these qualities to lead rather than follow. In fact it is incumbent on them’.

 

The price of solar in India could fall below that of coal within 5 years

By Dr Anthony Horton

According to a KPMG report published this month, the price of solar power has declined more than that expected by many analysts since January this year. In India currently, the price of solar is within 15% of coal process on a levelised basis. In the report titled “The Rising Sun-Disruption of the horizon”, KPMG contends that while the current price of solar doesn’t include grid integration costs, even after taking them into consideration, solar would still be competitive with coal. By 2020, they forecast that the price of solar power could be approximately 10% less than that of coal.

By 2020, KPMG forecasts a generation price of INR 4.2/kWh and INR 3.59 kWh by 2025 (at today’s prices), and that wind and solar generation could constitute 20% of India’s energy supply mix by 2025. The biggest potential factor in solar power pricing in India could be rooftop solar, especially if it is supported by the continuing evolution of storage technologies. KPMG predicts that rooftop solar could provide 10 GW within 5 years and 49 GW within 10 years, and could mitigate as much as 275 million tonnes of carbon emissions in 2025. Thus it would make a sizeable contribution to India’s INDC which included a 33-35% reduction in emissions intensity of its GDP by 2030 from 2005 levels.

In addition to price forecasts, the KPMG report pointed to the need for stakeholders to understand the possible extent of the impact of falling solar prices on the coal industry, and to the need to face it. A new planning paradigm that takes into account a significant renewable energy input scenario (including storage and smart grids) going forward was needed in India, and the report also suggested that the Government focus on bolstering planning policy, institutions, resources and protocols. Appropriate incentives for investment in the integration of solar into the grid and balancing services should be implemented early, and consideration should be given to storage technologies being promoted in a similar fashion to the way solar power was encouraged through the National Solar Mission in 2009.

In flagging the significant competition utilities are likely to face from distributed rooftop solar, KPMG suggests they get into rooftop solar themselves and develop new revenue models based on the relationships they have with existing customers. If they don’t confront the competition, they could face losing customers and may need to rely on subsidies to remain solvent. They will also need to examine their power procurement portfolio and look at how they contract incremental capacities. The cost structures of new capacities should be scrutinised closely prior to committing.

On the basis that solar power in India would be at a sufficient scale from 2022, the coal sector would come under pressure. To meet that challenge, the sector should focus on cost efficiency and flexibility, according to KPMG. Imported coal prices could be influenced by a number of factors including slowing growth in China, energy efficiency (on the demand side) and a fall in the commodities cycle. KPMG further recommended that Coal India Limited conduct a study of long run costs and add flexibility to its operations so it can adjust to different demand and price scenarios as they arise.

A framework for encouraging private investment in ancillary services needs to be urgently addressed, according to KPMGs report. The solar sector represents significant investment opportunities, including storage solutions, demand response and grid balancing, however the significant ramp up needs are such that the availability of sufficient domestic capital may represent a challenge. International funds and domestic bond markets should be investigated by investors, according to KPMG. Given that solar is approximately four times as capital intensive as coal on a per kWh basis, a global economic recession could have a potentially significant impact-not just in terms of the availability of capital but also in terms of falling fossil fuel prices which would make solar potentially less attractive. If shale gas or clean coal technologies become more prominent they could also pose a threat.

In KPMGs opinion, solar power has the potential to be a significant part of India’s energy mix in the next decade. Solar is clean and will reduce coal consumption over time, which will help India’s fight against climate change. Rooftop solar can take the pressure off distribution grids, which are of lower quality especially in rural areas according to KPMG. The continued evolution of storage technologies could lead to further development of electric vehicles in India, which in turn would reduce oil consumption and could possibly increase energy self-reliance. From a global point of view, reduced oil consumption and storage technologies offer the potential for increased energy security which is critical for every nation.

rWdMeee6_peAbout the author: Anthony Horton holds a PhD in Environmental Science, a Bachelor of Environmental Science with Honours and a Diploma of Carbon Management. He has a track record of delivering customised solutions in Academia, Government, the Mining Industry and Consulting based on the latest wisdom and his scientific background and experience in Climate/Atmospheric Science and Air Quality. Anthony’s work has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences, and he is currently on the Editorial Board of the Journal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology. Anthony also blogs on his own site, The Climate Change Guy.

 

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Extreme event attribution is turning up the heat on climate change deniers

By Dr Anthony Horton

According to a recently published report by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) entitled “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 From a Climate Perspective”, there is increasing evidence of human influence on climate changing the risk profile of events including the 2014 forest fires in California and snow storms in Nepal.

In terms of the California forest fires, the analysis included in the report showed that drought was in part responsible for the frequency of such events. Although the exact mechanism linking the fires and higher temperatures couldn’t be identified, the authors showed that global warming was likely to exacerbate both the risk and intensity of such events in future.

Analyses of heat events conducted in recent years continued to show the impact of human induced climate change, according to the AMS report. The report examined events in Argentina, Europe, China, Korea, Australia and both the northern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and identified a climate change signal. Of the 22 other studies reviewed by the AMS, only one discussing heat events couldn’t detect a climate change signal.

The winter storms in North America in 2013/14 were less frequent than normal along the West Coast, and more frequent than normal in the region from central Canada to the Midwest United States. The storm activity was linked to atypical winds in the tropical Pacific and not to human induced climate change. The daily temperature variability over the Midwest and Eastern United States was found not to be influenced by human induced change. Seasonal extremes were also not unusual in the historic records. However, seasonal mean cold conditions in the greater Upper Midwest in 2013/14 are between 20 and 100 times less likely than in the 19th century as a result of long term higher temperatures.

Drought received significant attention in the report due to the complexity of meteorological, hydrological and societal drivers that play a part in the phenomenon. The results of analyses of drought events could vary greatly dependent on whether temperature or rainfall was examined. An analysis of the significantly lower rainfall associated with the severe drought in Southeastern Brazil could not find any human influence.

Two analyses of the drought in East Africa used different methods and reached different conclusions regarding the role of human induced climate change in drought intensity. While human induced climate change wasn’t linked to the Middle East and central-southwest Asia, lower rainfall as a result of climate change was linked to the drought in Syria.

Following an analysis of the tropical cyclone season in the vicinity of Hawaii, the AMS report concluded that the events were substantially more likely as a result of a combination of human induced factors and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The transition of Hurricane Gonzalo into a very strong extratropical storm that affected Europe was not found to have been influenced by human activity. The AMS report highlighted the importance of the limitations of models used to analyse such events, and in particular the extent to which they capture and process the relevant environmental data.

In addition, the authors of the report pointed out that a conclusion of no human influence may result from the chosen methodology not being able to detect it, or insufficient observations being used. Even though the report highlighted the importance of examining each analysis to maximise the effectiveness of attribution results, it was clear that with respect to investigations of the extreme weather around the world, they were increasingly likely to show a detectable human influence.

As a scientist who is interested in how methodologies evolve, become more rigorous and lead to results that are widely applicable in society, I was particularly engaged in the report’s discussion of future directions. The authors stated that event attribution could become more relevant to society by taking into account additional human induced drivers of extreme events above and beyond typical ones. The flooding in the Canadian prairies was reported to be more likely as a result of human impacts on rainfall and land use changes that influence the mechanisms of drainage.

The Jakarta floods may have also been influenced by land use change from urban development and land subsidence. These examples emphasize pathways by which human activity can increase the regional risk of extreme weather events. Information regarding the ways in which human activities can impact extreme events is critical for decision making.

In concluding the report, the authors highlighted that methodologies used in event attribution have come a long way such that they are now well established and could be used routinely. Being able to use such methodologies is this way can be a tremendous “shot in the arm” for scientists, insurance companies and corporations who are each looking at climate change risks and opportunities from different perspectives.

 

rWdMeee6_peAbout the author: Anthony Horton holds a PhD in Environmental Science, a Bachelor of Environmental Science with Honours and a Diploma of Carbon Management. He has a track record of delivering customised solutions in Academia, Government, the Mining Industry and Consulting based on the latest wisdom and his scientific background and experience in Climate/Atmospheric Science and Air Quality. Anthony’s work has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences, and he is currently on the Editorial Board of the Journal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology. Anthony also blogs on his own site, The Climate Change Guy.

 

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Australian Government review of vehicle emissions has a now familiar aroma of disappointment

Br Dr Anthony Horton

According to a Press Release from Federal Member for Bradfield and Minister for Territories, Local Government and Major Projects Paul Fletcher, a “whole of Government” approach will be used to address vehicle emissions with the establishment of a Ministerial Forum which will be supported by a working group.

The working group will be examine the implementation of Euro 6 (a Regulation that reduces the emissions from light duty vehicles-cars and vans), fuel quality standards, fuel efficiency measures (CO2) for light vehicles and vehicle emissions testing.

In addition to the future implementation of Euro 6, fuel efficiency measures for light vehicles, fuel quality standards and vehicle emission testing standards in line with those implemented by international Regulators, the terms of reference for the working group include consulting with Industry stakeholders and coordinating work that is already underway regarding Government measures under the National Clean Air Agreement, the Emissions Reduction Fund and Safeguard mechanisms relating to transport initiatives and future infrastructure to support new vehicles.

The working group will report to the Ministerial Forum by the end of this Financial Year on options for managing fuel quality standards and measurement reporting standards for air pollutants under the National Clean Air Agreement. By 31 March 2017 the working group will report to the Forum on a draft implementation plan for new measures. Given that the current Government has committed to announcing measures to meet Australia’s 2030 climate change targets in 2017, it is shaping as a very busy year indeed with respect to Climate related matters.

The Ministerial Forum will facilitate consultation between Environment Minister Greg Hunt, Minister for Resources, Energy and Northern Australia Josh Frydenberg, Major Projects Minister Paul Fletcher (Forum Chair) and Industry to reduce motor vehicle emissions on Australian roads. Minister Fletcher stated that Australia already has tough emissions standards which ensures that air quality is good by international standards and the Government is taking Direct Action on climate change through a number of initiatives.

Australian Government policy is to bring vehicle emission standards with those developed by the United Nations. The recent adoption of Euro 5 vehicle emissions standards for light and heavy vehicles in Australia and consideration of Euro 6 was evidence of this according to Minister Fletcher.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt reiterated that while a number of programs were already in place which target vehicle emissions, the Government would continue working to reduce them further, including an Independent Review of the Fuel Quality Standards which will report before the end of this Financial Year.

I find it “interesting” (heavy sarcasm noted) that successive Federal Governments of both persuasions in Australia continue to promote bringing the population on a journey focusing on reducing vehicle emissions using initiatives including the Green Vehicle Guide and mandatory fuel efficiency labelling and at the same time seemingly ignore the personal exposure of drivers who refuel their vehicles at petrol stations. Fuel quality and vehicle engine efficiency are valid and important aspects, however surely the point of sale (e.g. petrol bowser) for that fuel should also receive some attention?

I wrote my PhD on personal exposure to benzene (an aromatic compound that is added to petrol to replace lead) with a focus on the lifetime excess leukemia risk of refuelling a vehicle once a week over a 70-year average lifetime. Therefore, I happen to know something about the significant excess risk that this one activity poses in comparison to others that individuals would probably do on a weekly basis without thinking too much about either the activity itself or what they are being exposed to as a result.

I wrote a blog on that earlier this year if you are interested in finding out more. You don’t have to worry-its not a lesson in chemistry or industrial hygiene however I’m pretty sure you’ll understand why we need to think a little more about some of the activities we do regularly. It may also cause you to ponder why Governments continue to ignore it from both an emissions and personal exposure perspective.

On this basis, I question how successive Governments continue to pick and choose which initiatives they will align with those of international counterparts under the premise of working to minimise what they label “noxious” emissions. In terms of minimising exposures during refuelling, vapour recovery at the petrol bowser has been in place in the US and Europe for decades and therefore Australia clearly has a long way to go. I am also growing tired of hearing that New South Wales is looking into implementing vapour recovery systems at the bowser (called Stage 2)-this statement has been trotted out for years.

I commend New South Wales for their persistence in this matter, however the lack of action from other states or from successive Federal Governments causes me to question their respective level of commitment to “noxious” emissions. If they intend to mention their new approach to vehicle emissions as part of their commitment at the upcoming Paris meeting and someone begins to probe a little deeper, the Australian delegation could well face questions as to why refuelling emissions aren’t part of such a review. Based on what I learnt from my PhD, I would certainly be asking such a question (among many others).

This article was originally published on The Climate Change Guy.

rWdMeee6_peAbout the author: Anthony Horton holds a PhD in Environmental Science, a Bachelor of Environmental Science with Honours and a Diploma of Carbon Management. He has a track record of delivering customised solutions in Academia, Government, the Mining Industry and Consulting based on the latest wisdom and his scientific background and experience in Climate/Atmospheric Science and Air Quality. Anthony’s work has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences, and he is currently on the Editorial Board of the Journal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology. Anthony also blogs on his own site, The Climate Change Guy.

 

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Bill Shorten takes climate change seriously, so guess who isn’t happy with him?

‘The frontline of climate change’ was the appealing subject of the email I received from Labor this morning. It read:

We often talk about what effects climate change will have on our economy, or on agricultural land, or how many more natural disasters we’re likely to suffer.

What we talk about less is how climate change is affecting some of our closest neighbours right now. And it’s devastating. The Papua New Guinea and island nations in the pacific are facing real, existential threats from climate change.

Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Richard Marles are visiting these islands this week and talking to people about life at the frontline of climate change.

This is an issue that isn’t going to go away – we’re likely to see and hear a lot more about it as the International Climate Change Conference in Paris approaches at the end of this month. We’ll keep you informed as much as we can.

Now you’d think that’d be a good thing. Here we have a group of politicians and a political party taking climate change seriously and placing it front and centre on the table. And added to that, they are engaging with counties that are most likely to be the first victims of rapid change.

In most countries this concern and their initiative would be applauded. But they might just happen to be countries where the Murdoch media doesn’t have the same influence as it does here. Instead of it being applauded, we see it derided. Andrew Bolt of The Herald Sun led the way:

LABOR leader Bill Shorten will test the honesty of journalists this week when he tours Pacific Islands he claims are drowning.

Will they dare report that most of the islands are in fact growing or stable? Or will they again prove they cannot be trusted to tell the truth about the global warming scare?

Shorten and deputy Tanya Plibersek plan to visit Kiribati and the Marshall Islands.

As the gullible Sydney Morning Herald announced: “Labor wants to put climate change at the centre of public debate in the run-up to a major United Nations summit in Paris later this year.

Sister paper The Daily Telegraph could only feature the story as one that will see ‘Bill Shorten . . . fly 16,000km on a private jet . . .’ and mock him with the image above with the caption ‘Labor overboard with private jet tour’, while all that news.com.au wanted to tell us was that Bill Shorten danced awkwardly while in Kiribati with suggestions that it might give us a good reason to laugh at him.

One would think that the Murdoch media don’t like the idea of someone taking climate change seriously.

Personally, I’ve had it up to my teeth with the Murdoch media. How can any important issue or any non-Coalition politician get a fair run in this country while the Murdoch media has so much power and so many right-wing fanatics spreading the Murdoch gospel?

The Great Hoax, Climate Change or the GST?

Personally, I think that maths is overvalued in schools. Now I’m not talking numeracy, I’m talking trigonometry, surds, quadratic equations and a whole range of things that most people won’t use past school. Fine for those who are going on to particular fields but a large number of students would be better off if they’d never had to struggle through them.

Of course, if you disagree with me, it’s not because you have a different perspective. It’s not because you think that maybe it’s a good idea to expose all people to maths because it’s good for them to be challenged. No, it’s because you’re gullible and a victim of the gigantic hoax that the maths teachers have invented. For a start, numbers aren’t even real. As for Pythagoras, not only did he believe that beans were souls migrating from one life to the next, he and his followers believed that numbers had magical powers. So, if you want to disagree with me, don’t cite a maths teacher or anyone who believes in maths teaching, don’t trust academics, they’re all part of the conspiracy. The best people to trust are your friends and family.

Yep, I sound ridiculous. While there is an argument to be had about how maths should be taught and whether it needs to be compulsory past a certain level, the idea that it’s a “hoax” and that you can rely on information from your friends and family makes me sound well, at least a little unbalanced.

Yet, this seems to be what the CSIRO’s survey on climate change revealed. People who didn’t believe in climate change found their friends and family their most trusted source. While I can support a degree of sceptism about what experts tell us, it strikes me that there are certain areas where the average person won’t have the necessary skills to be able to make an informed decision. Nobody says that they took their X-ray home and after everyone they know had a look at it, they decided that the doctor’s interpretation was wrong. In the case of climate change, many are arguing that they don’t even need to see the X-ray.

OK, there are “experts” on both sides of the climate change debate and it’s interesting to see how the media presents them. It was fine when Cardinal Pell gave his opinion, but Pope Francis should stick to religion. Anyone with a science degree or a couple of years at university hanging around the cafe is presented as an expert on climate change without much sceptism by the media and there’s no attempt to evaluate their credentials. . We have the absurd scenario where we’re asked to believe that a group of scientists decided that they’d find it easier to get funding to investigate something invented, and that rather than make actuall discoveries, they’d rather just take this funding and spend their time making stuff up. However, thanks to some intrepid physicists and geologists – often funded by fossil fuel companies – this hoax is being exposed.

Now, I’m not saying that the prevailing wisdom on climate change couldn’t be wrong. I’m simply saying that when one suggests that scientists have dishonest motives, one should be prepared to have one’s own motives scrutinised. Why climate scientists are supposedly part of a “hoax” and not just simply wrong is what gets me. For years, the cause of ulcers was misunderstood, but we don’t suggest that was because of some conspiracy to stop people stressing or eating spicy foods.

But speaking of hoaxes, how do you like this GST?

Remember when it came in?

No, I’m not talking about how “never ever” simply meant not until after the next election – although I suppose if that’s the case, then the assurances by Howard and Costello that it could never go up because, well, all the states had to agree and could you ever see a time when all the governments would agree to receiving more revenue, lasted a lot longer than we could have expected. That was “never” and not “never ever”, so I’m surprised that it’s taken so long before someone put it on the table.

Mm, I guess it’s easy to see why people don’t trust the “experts” and would rather listen to Uncle Frank and the guy next door.

Now, ignoring the politics, I can see an argument for putting up the GST. While the converntional argument is that it’s regressive and hurts the poor more than the rich, this needn’t be the case.

In the first instance, the poor have a limited amount to spend and so any increase in the GST won’t hit them in total terms as much as someone who spends more. If someone only spends twenty five thousand in a year, then a five percent increase can’t cost them more than $1250, whereas someone spending $100,000 could be hit for $5000. If the current exemptions on fresh food, education and health are included then it’s even less than the $1250. If you raise pensions and allowances by enough, as well as increasing the tax free threshold, you can compensate those who the five percent increase will affect.

Secondly, while income tax can be minimised by various accounting tricks to minimise one’s income, the GST is more difficult to avoid. I may have used the Cayman Islands to avoid the tax on my business, but when I buy my Jaguar, I’ll be hit for an extra five percent.

And finally, the extra revenue should enable the states to continue to provide services from which should benefit those who don’t have private health insurance or go to Xavier where they learn to be grateful that they don’t go to some “povo” school in Pakenham. (Hey, I know it was just one individual and private schools don’t really encourage that sort of class warfare thing. They just constantly tell you what a great education you’re getting and how their school is the best in the world. Why a student would think that government schools are “povo” is a mystery to them …).

So, I can see that a rise in the GST could be a good thing all round – even if it is the Liberal Party proposing it.

But then, I’m also gullible enough to fall for the climate change hoax.

 

Why would anybody want to re-elect this government?

Voters must have an intense dislike of asylum seekers.

The latest Morgan Poll is great for the government, which sees them leading the opposition 56.5/43.5.

Taking away personalities (ie, disregarding that many people obviously like Malcolm Turnbull), it really is hard to see what the government has going for them.

If re-elected, they will make life harder or more miserable for near on all of the population. “Yes we can” says the poster. And yes they will. For example, if re-elected they:

  • will be doing nothing to address climate change
  • will possibly increase the GST, costing each family about $4,000 a year
  • will continue to ignore science of any description
  • will be doing nothing about housing affordability
  • will be doing nothing about the high unemployment levels
  • will be providing us with internet speeds that are the worst in the world
  • will continue to tighten the screws for people on welfare or income support
  • will still be giving billions to the mining companies
  • they will do nothing about the huge gap in wealth inequality (quite the opposite, they will continue to pander to the rich)
  • will do nothing to help the disadvantaged in our society (they will probably cut funding even further)
  • will continue to beat around the bush as far as same-sex marriage goes
  • have intentions of changing the media ownership laws which will give Murdoch even more control of our media (and they’ll probably cut funding to the ABC even further)
  • will continue to demonise innocent people (Gillian Triggs is a good example)
  • will make it more costly to see a doctor or a specialist
  • if economists are correct, the government will lead us into a recession
  • will keep ripping coal out of our beautiful country – coal that nobody wants
  • will make tertiary education unaffordable
  • will strip away our citizenship if (as a dual citizen) we do as much as destroy a government owned coffee table
  • will spy on our every movement
  • will jail anybody who dares report on atrocities committed by the government
  • . . . and on and on the list goes

But . . . they will keep telling us that they’ve stopped the boats and we’re safe from all those murderous would-be terrorists that did sneak through because they’re all locked up now on Nauru or Manus Island and with any luck they will either rot to death or be sent to a country with an unpronounceable name where they can perish without our knowledge.

And no matter how much misery this Coalition government casts over our own lives we will vote for them because of their asylum seekers policies.

And it’s got me beat.

 

China illustrates the true meaning of Direct Action on climate

By Dr Anthony Horton

With 37 days to go until the Paris Climate Change conference in December, a report released by the Paulson Institute in Beijing on Friday October 23 outlined a plan to accelerate the economic and environmental improvement transition in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China, which last year was home to 130 million people and accounted for 10% of China’s GDP.

In addition to industrial areas, modern urban centres and districts trying to resist urban sprawl and maintain their rural character, the region is also called home by the largest steel and iron manufacturers in China, and some of the most polluted cities in the world. The steel, coke and cement industries are the largest greenhouse gas emitters in China.

According to a story in the weekend edition of the China Daily newspaper (24/25 October) which discussed the highlights of the report, the region is well placed to transition on the basis of its good infrastructure and relatively easy access to wind and solar power.

Former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stated in an interview on the release of the report that in his opinion the next Five Year Plan (commencing in 2016) will be very ambitious and widely acclaimed. Figuring out how to make the Plan a reality will represent the biggest challenge though, and transitioning from “dirty” to “clean” plants without stifling growth was achievable but will take some time. Paulson also highlighted the huge opportunities that such a transition presents for international companies based on the size of the market for environmental goods and services.

Deputy Director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform, Wang Jiahui commented that it was possible to control air pollution, given the emissions reduction campaign conducted during APEC China last year. She also stated that nineteen coal fired power plants in Tianjin will meet the emission standards that gas fired stations are required to meet by the end of this year.

Liu Bozheng, also a Deputy Director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform announced that 1200 high energy consumption and highly polluting companies will be closed by 2017 rather than relocated to other regions. Four significant thermoelectric centres have been closed in Beijing and numerous coal fired boilers have been converted to gas boilers. A number of energy efficiency measures have also been implemented in Beijing as part of revamping more than 40 million square metres of office space.

Rather than simply revitalising industries in decline, the report recommended that City officers should identify opportunities for new growth industries. With respect to Hebei, officers should prioritise policies that promote renewable energy, energy efficiency and have strong growth and job creation potential, according to the Paulson Institute report.

I read the China Daily story on the flight from Beijing to Perth on Sunday, and have to admit that it brought to mind many of the conversations I had over the week I was in China. I was invited to speak on the role of innovation in the environmental protection space at the China Mining Conference and Exhibition 2015 in Tianjin, and in addition to speaking to a range of people in my session, I also spoke to many others over the three days of the conference.

After reflecting on the conference and the few days I spent in Beijing before and after, I left China with four main impressions. Firstly, there is an appreciation of the scale of transition that is required. There is also an understanding that the Green Mining Standard (initially conceived by the Ministry of Land and Resources in 2007) and the Guidance to Implement the National Mineral Resource Program, Develop Green Mining and Construct a Green Mine issued in 2010 (which essentially established a defined Green Mining Standard) is flexible enough to accommodate new knowledge and innovative approaches.

The Green Mining Standard takes into account nine operational aspects-operating legally, good practices, the efficient use of resources, technological innovation, limiting releases of wastes, environmental protection, reclamation, a harmonious relationship with the community and a good culture within the company.

Third, there is a willingness to listen to adopt learnings from international mining settings, and lastly (but by no means least), there is an optimism regarding what can be achieved in the short, medium and long term.

I am also heartened by the singularity of the messages I heard from Governments and Mining companies in China with respect to the need to protect the environments in which mining takes place as well as nearby ecosystems (which are linked in some way to those mined areas) as far as practicable and the importance of clear legislation and policies which facilitate that protection.

rWdMeee6_peAbout the author: Anthony Horton holds a PhD in Environmental Science, a Bachelor of Environmental Science with Honours and a Diploma of Carbon Management. He has a track record of delivering customised solutions in Academia, Government, the Mining Industry and Consulting based on the latest wisdom and his scientific background and experience in Climate/Atmospheric Science and Air Quality. Anthony’s work has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences, and he is currently on the Editorial Board of the Journal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology. Anthony also blogs on his own site, The Climate Change Guy.

 

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Malcolm’s test

In six weeks’ time, we will see if Malcolm Turnbull is a leader of substance or a snake oil salesman.

You have to admire his courage in deciding to personally attend the climate change talks in Paris but if he tries to push the Greg Hunt propaganda, he will get called out on it. Some 150 of the 200 or so countries attending have submitted their plans to move to a low carbon future and I doubt they will take kindly to spin.

Both the IMF and the World Bank, along with a growing number of world leaders, are calling for a price on carbon but Malcolm promised the Nationals and the right of his party that he wouldn’t do that.

As recently as July, we had two Western Australian Liberal MPs calling for an inquiry into the evidence of human influence on climate change.

“I’m open to being convinced but the data and the evidence that I’ve seen [on climate change] thus far certainly I don’t find compelling,” said Dennis Jensen. “You get the appeal to consensus when the data and the evidence is weak and it’s an appeal to authority rather than examining the data and the evidence.”

Dr Jensen said he was not alone within the party, and that there were “at least” 10 MPs who shared his view that the Government should not sign up to emissions cuts without a parliamentary inquiry.

We have Cory Bernardi whose argument runs along the lines of “Well, the Earth’s climate changes all the time, always has, always will and this happened well before we came along burning fossil fuels. Oh and by the way the world stopped warming since 1998 and I just saw an article the other day saying Chlorofluorocarbons were the real culprit of warming not CO2.”

Senator Fierravanti-Wells reminds us that CO2 is plant food which I assume means she thinks increased levels will be good for agriculture.

And then there’s George Christensen who, when addressing the Heartland Institute last year, said “The weather and climate in Australia has not changed in the last century but a new religious interpretation has arisen since then. When we are in a flood, they tell us ‘too much rain is a sign, more hurricanes is a sign, fewer hurricanes is a sign, the sky is blue – it’s a sign, gravity – it’s a sign’.”

The most strident critic of carbon pricing and the man who worked tirelessly to bring it down, Barnaby Joyce, is being touted as our next leader of the Nationals and Deputy Prime Minister.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said this month that the El Nino was now on course to challenge the 1997-98 event as the strongest on record, and was not expected to peak until late this year.

September was not only the seventh month so far this year to set a new record for heat, it was also the most anomalously hot month in 135 years of data, NOAA said and predictions are that 2015 will easily eclipse heat records in previous years.

Malcolm is going to have to explain why we are approving huge new coal mines and, with China and India both looking to cut coal imports, it is unlikely the ‘lift them out of poverty’ excuse will wash on the international stage.

Will he defend the Direct Action Plan that he previously described as “bullshit” and prohibitively expensive?

In an interview with the Guardian, Turnbull said “If something isn’t working as well as you want, chuck it out. I’m not afraid of people saying, it’s a backdown, or a backflip, an agile government is prepared to abandon policies that don’t work.”

We shall see.

 

Global fossil fuel divestment a tsunami of change

By Dr Anthony Horton

According to a report published by Arabella Advisors, since Climate Week in September last year more than 250 institutions and 1300 individuals have joined the global fossil fuel divestment and clean energy investment movement. The scale of the increase in divestment over the last 13 months is indeed significant-growing from $50 billion to $2.6 trillion (eg. a 50 fold increase).

There has also been a significant broadening of sectors pledging to divest. Last year, foundations, universities, faith-based organisations and NGOs were leading the movement. Now, large pension funds and private sector companies hold more than 90% of the combined assets of those who have committed to divest.

The massive growth in divestment is in part being driven by an awareness that climate change poses a risk to investment portfolios. Citigroup, HSBC, Mercer, the International Energy Agency, Bank of England and Carbon Tracker Initiative have reported evidence of a significant (and now quantifiable) risk to portfolios that include fossil fuels when the world is increasingly constrained by carbon.

Historically, the United States was the focus of the divestment movement, however divestment now covers virtually the whole world. Last year, nearly 80% of organisations that divested were based in the United States. Currently, just under 60% of organisations that divest are based there. Significantly, divesting organisations now represent nearly 650 million people around the world.

Last year, global investment in clean energy reached $310 billion, and many organisations are also committing to invest in solutions to climate change. Approximately $785 billion in assets are now held by organisations and individuals that have pledge to divest from fossil fuels and invest in clean energy.

Faith communities are also making a very strong case for the moral responsibility of acting on climate change and providing access to clean energy for the world’s poor. Faith leaders are demanding meaningful climate change actions and they are also divesting their own assets. To date nearly 130 faith based organisations with $24 billion in assets have committed to divest.

Commitments from universities have almost tripled since last year, with 40 institutions and $130 billion in assets pledging to divest. Prominent universities including Georgetown, Oxford and the University of California have committed in the last year, with the latter committing its entire $98 billion portfolio.

The California General Assembly recently voted to divest its public employee pension funds (worth $476 billion) from companies that get more than 50% of their revenue from coal mining. Providence Rhode Island, the City of Newcastle (Australia) and the Government of the ACT are notable examples.

More than 110 Foundations with over $10 billion in assets have also committed to divest from fossil fuels since September 2014.

Divestment is one mechanism in an organisation’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) tool kit; as significant as the movement is, it is important to remember that there are a number of other strategies available from a CSR perspective including carbon pricing and emission reduction targets. Carbon pricing is a very well-known strategy which has revolutionised business operations and procurement in a number of countries and industries.

Evidence is growing that carbon pricing in some shape or form is one basis upon which decisions are being made as to the procurement of goods and services. Those corporations that provide goods and services and have implemented internal carbon pricing have an advantage over their competitors, and being a market based instrument, that advantage may grow more significant over time.

Emission reduction targets-based on what science currently tells us-are another mechanism available to corporations for inclusion in their CSR tool kit. Analysis by the We Mean Business (WMB) Coalition shows that there are a range of ways a science based reduction target can be determined.

The first method is entitled the 3% solution-based on the United States’ corporate sector’s need to reduce emissions by 3% on average each year from 2010 to 2020 in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. Businesses that act now can save $US 190 billion in 2020. If they wait until 2020 to start, corporations will have to cut emissions by 10% per year to maintain the correct trajectory for 2050.

The second method-entitled Cutting absolute emissions-involves corporations reducing emissions in line with IPCC recommendations (a reduction of 41-72% by 2050 of 2010 levels). This method isn’t sector or region specific, and importantly a 41-72% reduction effectively means there is still a 1 in 3 chance global warming won’t be kept under 2°C.

Value added approaches link a corporation’s carbon emissions to their contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As a corporation’s contribution to GDP increase, the emission reductions need to keep pace. These approaches can be implemented in developed and developing countries, are flexible and reasonably simple to implement. However, they don’t necessarily account for differences in sectors.

Lastly, the Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA) allocates a carbon budget to each sector that is linked to the IPCC recommendations. Corporations in each sector can base targets on their contribution to their sector’s total activity and on their emissions intensity relative to their sector’s overall emissions intensity. It is a new method, however it should give a more accurate picture of the extent to which corporations need to maintain the 2°C ceiling. Being sector based, it also makes more sense for business.

Whichever method corporations choose to set emission reduction targets once they have considered their individual circumstances, the important point is that they are setting them in the first place. Along with divestment in fossil fuels and investment in clean energy, these mechanisms illustrate that corporations understand the challenges and opportunities that climate change presents. It is also somewhat illustrative of the need for Government to establish the policy framework and then get out of the way and let corporations do what they do best.

This article was originally published on The Climate Change Guy.

rWdMeee6_peAbout the author: Anthony Horton holds a PhD in Environmental Science, a Bachelor of Environmental Science with Honours and a Diploma of Carbon Management. He has a track record of delivering customised solutions in Academia, Government, the Mining Industry and Consulting based on the latest wisdom and his scientific background and experience in Climate/Atmospheric Science and Air Quality. Anthony’s work has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences, and he is currently on the Editorial Board of the Journal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology. Anthony also blogs on his own site, The Climate Change Guy.

 

Why a 4 degree global temperature increase is the new game in town

By Dr Anthony Horton

Numerous recent initiatives intend to precipitate action on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the lead up to the Paris Climate Summit, which is now less than 2 months away. In recent weeks, approximately 2000 people and 400 organisations have made commitments to cease investments in fossil fuel producing companies. Countries were asked to nominate actions they would undertake to reduce GHG emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by October 1.

A US Clean Power Plan which was announced in August this year could reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power stations by 870 million tonnes by 2030 (equivalent of taking 166 million cars off the road). China has committed to peak emissions by 2030, and there are indications that emissions may peak before that. Two weeks ago on September 25, China announced that a national carbon emissions trading scheme would commence in 2017. Shortly after that, Brazil announced a 43% cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2030.

When the Paris Climate Summit begins, the parties negotiating a deal need to consider the extent to which global warming is already occurring. Global carbon dioxide emissions in 2012 were 58% higher than they were in 1990 and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased from approximately 340 parts per million (ppm) in 1980 to nearly 400ppm today. It is a commonly held belief that in order to limit warming to 2°C the total amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere must stay below 1 trillion tonnes.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we were more than half way to 1 trillion tonnes in 2011 with a total amount of 515 billion tonnes in the atmosphere. If global greenhouse gas emissions continue at the rate of 140 billion tonnes each year, temperatures may rise by up to 4.5°C by 2100. Even if each country fully honours its Paris pledge, it is possible that global temperatures may increase by 3.5°C by then.

Global average temperatures are approximately 0.8°C higher than before the Industrial Revolution and a recent study in the journal Science showed that a suspected warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012 didn’t occur-the cooler temperatures arose from measurements from ocean buoys rather than ships. A subsequent study also found flaws in the statistical modelling in the research that pointed to the hiatus.

The world’s oceans are absorbing most of the heat which is being added to the Earth’s climate system. Arctic sea ice coverage in summer has reduced by more than 40% over the past 40 years, and mean sea levels have risen by approximately 20cm since 1880 and could rise by up to 1 metre more by 2100. The Kiribati Government has recently purchased land in Fiji to accommodate residents in the case of flooding.

Given that fresh water is less dense than salt water, melting sheets of ice interrupt oceanic circulation patterns. It is possible that Europe’s climate may cool slightly as a result of the Atlantic meridional driving cold salt water into the deep ocean and warm water northward. The changes in ocean currents may also be shifting jet streams and altering storm patterns.

According to Simon Lewis from University College London, forest fires in Indonesia could release up to 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. Recent US fires have consumed more than 2 million hectares of forest. Alaska fared worst due to soot from the fires darkening the ice and reducing its ability to reflect solar radiation away from the Earth.

The Arctic region is reportedly warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth, and if the permafrosts (that store 1,700 Gigatonnes or 1,700 billion tonnes of carbon) thaw out, huge amounts of methane will be released. The big problem with that is the global warming potential of methane is 25 times that of carbon dioxide.

In a paper recently published in Nature Climate Change, researchers from Universities of Cambridge and Colorado estimated that the economic impact of both methane and carbon dioxide being released could be as high as 0.7% of global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2200 using environmental models. Their research did however include a high level of uncertainty.

A little more than a week ago Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney warned that measures necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change in the long term could result in huge losses in the shorter term by rendering oil, coal and gas essentially untouchable.

See more on the 4 degree warming scenario here.

I have to say I admire Christiana Figueres’ persistence in urging immediate action-seemingly on a weekly basis. As overseer of the Paris Climate Summit in December she has an unenviable task in obtaining an unprecedented global agreement. Her task is not made any easier given the justification with which some countries are defending their Paris commitments (despite considerable pressure from others) and their apparent lack of understanding that we are all residents of the one Earth.

Most developed countries understand that the old “business as usual” approach simply won’t cut it anymore and that they have a responsibility to take the needs of people in developing countries into account, especially as the majority of these countries have made little contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. Announcements are being made virtually every day on social media regarding renewable energy initiatives and/or countries, states or towns that are moving from a reliance on fossil fuels to larger and larger percentages of renewables in their energy mix.

Whether the global average temperature increase by 2100 is predicted to be 2°C or 4°C, it is inevitable that countries need to join together and help each other, including their nearest neighbours. Australia’s recent move to “throw its toys out of the cot” if the UN established an organisation charged with the responsibility of assisting people that are fleeing from the ravages of climate change surely flies in the face of the need to help those around us.

This article was first published on The Climate Change Guy.

rWdMeee6_peAbout the author: Anthony Horton holds a PhD in Environmental Science, a Bachelor of Environmental Science with Honours and a Diploma of Carbon Management. He has a track record of delivering customised solutions in Academia, Government, the Mining Industry and Consulting based on the latest wisdom and his scientific background and experience in Climate/Atmospheric Science and Air Quality. Anthony’s work has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences, and he is currently on the Editorial Board of the Journal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology. Anthony also blogs on his own site, The Climate Change Guy.

 

Give Labor a big tick

It was bound to happen and I’m glad it did.

After weekly emails from Labor – that were generally pointless or simply wanted me to sign a petition – I am pleased to announce that something constructive found its way into my inbox.

Instead of garbling on about nothing or inviting me/email recipients to send stern words to the government about whatever horrible policy they were trying to thrust upon us . . . Labor wants my opinion about the policies important to me.

I don’t know how many people received said email but I do hope that a hell of a lot of people are on their mailing lists. I want a hell of a lot of people telling Labor what is important to them.

Now to the email:

We want to make sure our community is heard. We have so many supporters who are passionate about so many different issues.

That’s why we’d like to hold a series of Facebook QandAs with Labor Shadow Ministers so that you can ask your questions about Labor’s plans and policies directly from the source.

So what issue are you most passionate about?

The Budget

The Economy

Education

Environment and Climate Change

Foreign Affairs

Health

Higher Education

Immigration and Asylum policy

Infrastructure

Innovation and Start-ups

National Security

The NBN

NDIS

Regional Australia

Social Security, Pensions and Welfare

Are Labor actually about to start implementing some policies? Are they actually trying to shake off the Liberal-Lite label? Are they actually trying to move forward again now that Tony Abbott and his wedge-style of politics have been swept away?

If ‘yes’ to all of the above, then “thank you, Labor”.

For two years I’ve been dumbfounded as to why the issues important to me have been ignored. There must be tens of thousands of Labor supporters who feel the same way, but at last Labor wants to hear from us.

As I’ve been the first to complain over these two years I will be making sure I am one of the first to tick some of the boxes. Please join me. We are about to be listened to.