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Why Theresa May Called An Early Election And How Tony Abbott Is Helping Turnbull

When I heard that Theresa May had called an election for June 12, I thought, “Well, that’s one way of avoiding all the mess of Brexit. Get voted out!” However, all the news stories I’ve read seem to suggest that she’s expected to win. It’s a strategy to give herself a mandate for Brexit, they said. The Labour vote is down, they said. Some even suggested that it was a clever move.

Well, I don’t know much about British politics, but if I want to succeed as a hard-hitting opinion piece writer, I can’t let total ignorance stop me from commenting. After all, if only the well-informed commented then the whole standard of political discourse would be improved and then there’d be no room for Barnaby Joyce. So, for what it’s worth, here’s my two cents worth… Or should that be tuppence, giving I’m writing about Britain?

In spite of Brexit and the election of Trump, most commentators seem to be behaving as though these things are entirely predictable. And, if we have a good hard look at what May is arguing, we discover that – even though they had a vote about leaving the EU – the British PM feels that she needs another election in order to give her a mandate. Of course, they’ve already passed the legislation and put the wheels in motion and triggered Article 50 and announced that there’s no going back. However, she just needs a bit of reassurance. No, they’ll still go ahead, no matter what, but she doesn’t feel that her seventeen seat majority is enough and she’d like it extended so that she can say how much everyone is behind Brexit.

Except that a lot of people aren’t. Even some of those who voted against it were doing so as a protest, but when they won, it all became a bit real for them. And now that UKIP, Boris Johnson, Uncle Tom Cobbly and all have demonstrated that while they campaigned with all the passion of a dog chasing a car, once the car pulled over, they didn’t seem to have any ideas about what to do, apart from continuing to bark until someone put them back in their kennel.

And given that there’s a strong expectation that May will win, the danger of yet another protest vote leading to a surprise result remains a real possibility. It seems that there are only three possibilities: 1. May loses the election badly and the whole process is in chaos while Labour works out exactly what they’ll do; 2. May needs the support of other parties to form government, meaning that she has less authority to make decisions; 3. May is returned with a working majority, which even if she increases the number of seats, she’s effectively in the same position she’s in now, except she can say that she has a mandate to do what she’s already done!

It’s always worth remembering that while ninety percent of everything is predictable, that’s what lulls us into a false sense of security and causes us to miss the fact that the other ten percent is unpredictable and therefore always likely to catch us by surprise.

Now take Tony Abbott, for example. Various Liberals are making the same suggestion that was made to that shepherd whose sheep were making too much noise: “Why don’t you shut the flock up!” However, I don’t see Tony as doing much damage at all. Every time he opens his mouth, we’re reminded of exactly how out of touch with reality he actually is. True, Turnbull may be two-faced, duplicitous, arrogant, out-of-touch, manipulative and prepared to do anything in order to stay PM, but at least he gives the impression that he has some grip on reality. Comparatively speaking, that is.

And, of course, Abbott’s five point plan for fixing up the government made Turnbull’s announcement on 457 visas look impressive by comparison. Turnbull managed to get through the whole thing without blaming Labor for not changing it sooner… Possibly because then the question of why it’s taken them four years before they’ve actually got around to taking off such things as Cinema Manager, Park Ranger or Amusement Centre Manager from the list. Ok, I know that many of the changes are largely cosmetic and that there’s still a heap of jobs on the list where we don’t actually need overseas workers, but could you imagine, Tony ever making an announcement without telling us why it was someone else’s fault?

Tony’s five point plan, for those of you who missed it, consisted of attacking renewables (they shouldn’t get subsidies – only fossil fuels provide jobs), cutting spending so that our grandkids don’t have debt (mind you, they’ll have a bucketload of delayed infrastructure they’ll have to pay for), reforming the Senate (ok, we just did it, but we need to keep doing it until only Liberals can be elected), cutting immigration (we don’t want people like his parents coming here) and getting rid of the Human Rights Commission (because it’s part of the “nanny” state and Tony obviously hated his grandmother!)

So after Tony’s little outburst, I see a bump in the polls for Malcolm. Of course, I could be wrong. There’s always the possibility that Malcolm may actually make the mistake of showing us one of those excruciating moments where he tries to look all human and relaxed by having a beer. That never plays well. And, of course, his version of “All the way with LBJ” where he goes “I’m a chump for Donald Trump” may get him into trouble.

Whatever, it’s all very predictable. Apart from the bits that aren’t. And if I could work them out, I’d have it made!

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15 comments

  1. Möbius Ecko

    Or, channelling conspiracy, she’s calling an early election because the impact of Brexit is about to begin. I find it suspect that she has called this election soon after it was revealed that Britain may lose its position as a major global banker and financial hub to the EU.

  2. David1

    From what I have observed and comments via email from UK Labour friends immediately after the announcement, she is relying on the chaotic mess UK Labour is in with a leader the majority don’t want and a return to the fold of those who deserted Cameron. Scotland is lost to both the Torys and Labour, going on all reports.
    It will take a political miracle for her to lose outright, but I believe a couple of your scenarios are definitely in play Rossleigh. Perhaps it will also enable Labour to finally sort out their leadership woes, although Lord knows who it will be.

  3. RonaldR

    WHAT’S BEHIND THERESA MAY’S EARLY EARLY ELECTION GAMBLE?
    ANSWER : JEREMY CORBYN

    WHAT IS THERESA MAY’S THEME SONG? RUNNING SCARED

  4. RonaldR

    David1 What Labour Woes -you have been led up the Garden Path by the Mass Media Labour’s membership has grown and is still growing – Record Membership and you call that woes

  5. David1

    Ronald I get my information from party members and articles from the hardly anti Labour Guardian. and following rank and file members on Twitter. I do not read the mass media nor do I follow any of Murdochs right wing crap.
    What was the reason for the increase in membership? What size increase 1 21 51….? Could be any number of reasons. Dissatisfaction with certain elements, with policy, leader,
    Labour party leadership
    April 2017

    Most of Labour’s main support is down to Corbyn, Diane Abbott says
    Party could fall to below 10% in polls if leader’s critics try to replace him, says shadow home secretary
    Published: 14 Apr 2017

    March 2017

    Can anyone rescue Labour from this deep irrelevance?
    John Harris
    Published: 31 Mar 2017
    2,664

    Stephen Hawking: Jeremy Corbyn is a disaster for Labour
    Published: 7 Mar 2017

    Labour MPs hit out at suggestions they want to replace Jeremy Corbyn
    Published: 6 Mar 2017

    Podcast How can Labour reunite? – Politics Weekly podcast
    Published: 4 Mar 2017
    75

    Pass notes #softcoup: the plot to oust Corbyn
    Published: 1 Mar 2017
    383

    February 2017

    What policies should Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour pursue?
    Published: 27 Feb 2017

    Lessons in leadership from Clement Attlee and George Lansbury

    Tom Watson denies disunity among MPs

    These stats hardly agree with your claim of record membership and growing. I want to see the party prosper but currently they are a mess
    Labour party has lost nearly 26,000 members since mid-2016, report …
    https://www.theguardian.com › Politics › Labour
    Mar 2, 2017 – The leaked data showed total Labour membership at 528,180, down from a peak … Commenting on the reports of the decline in membership, the shadow ..

  6. Sir Scotchmistery

    Tony didn’t hate his granny. He had no idea who she was.

    I was impressed that the ALP are going after that African woman running on family first’s ticket beaded on the fact she was born overseas. The ALP need to take a good long look at themselves over that piece of work. It will be a long chilly day in hell before I get convinced to vote for those turds again.

  7. silkworm

    If Corbyn does manage to become PM, he should consider staying out of the EU, because member states of the EU lose their currency issing powers. Corbyn is an initiate of MMT – Bill Mitchell was one of his economic advisors – and so he would know that Brexit gives the currency issuing power back to Britain.

    One of the reasons often not discussed as to why Britons voted for Brexit was that the influx of immigrants was “taking up jobs” and putting downward pressure on wages. Under EU rules, Corbyn would have been hamstrung in creating more jobs, but with his understanding of MMT, he would know that the country would not be bound in creating a government funded job creation scheme, and he would know that the quickest way to boost the economy is to give an economic stimulus to the poorest in the community, as proved by the Rudd-Swan stimulus of 2008-2009, and to raise the minimum wage. Or, as Mitchell advocates, Corbyn should campaign for full employment, and for a Job Guarantee.

  8. Cynthia

    Thankyou for the making me smile; love your sense of humour.

  9. Miriam English

    Regarding BREXIT, here is a really good laugh:
    CGP Grey – Brexit, Briefly
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3_I2rfApYk

    CGP Grey’s videos are some of the most informative I’ve seen and always worth watching. This one is the most hilarious one I’ve seen. It has me chuckling all the way through. Those wacky politicians! At least our idiots don’t look quite so stupid now… oh wait… yes, they do.

  10. burniebobthe_b_

    David1
    I think your Labour sources might be from the anti Corbyn camp beause members I correspond with tell a different yarn as does Media,
    The membership of Labour has grown and the growth has been maintained
    Labour Party gains 60,000 new members in one week following attempted coup against Corbyn

    At least 60,000 new people have joined the Labour party in the past week amid delays to Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership challengThe rush of new members to the party, however, raises Labour’s total membership to around 450,000 – higher than its last peak of 405,000 during Tony Blair’s leadership in 1997.

    But these latest accounts highlight the Corbyn effect. They show that Labour raised a whopping £9,532,000 in membership subscriptions in 2015

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-gains-60000-new-members-following-attempted-coup-against-corbyn-a7112336.html

    2017 figures have membership at 528,180, hardly a drop

  11. Zathras

    Regarding Bexit, it makes no difference whose in power now – it’s a done deal and both sides will have to do the same things.

    It’s an opportunistic and cynical move, probably made before the full effect of Brexit has been determined.
    Things will not get better in the short term and will get much worse economically.

    The phony “mandate” argument may provide enough of an excuse to get them across the line at the next election but without it, they will suffer more at the next election and a couple of years sooner.

    If the EU was smart, they would get the UK out as quickly as possible and use the outcome as an example to others who may considering a similar move.

    As an aside, I’m wondering where it leaves all those Brits who bought holiday homes in Spain and Italy to retire to. They were all the rage not so long ago on Lifestyle shows.

    Will they be forced to to sell up and move back home or apply for foreign residency and probably forfeit their UK pension rights?
    It will be interesting.

    If the Government is panicked now, there must be a reason.

  12. David Bruce

    Good article about a subject close to me. I was born in the UK during WW2, and celebrated my first birthday in Melbourne. The Commonwealth of Australia purchased my first passport before I went overseas to Vietnam. As luck would have it, the passport was a British passport, valid in North Vietnam. I still have a British passport, as it was useful for traveling and working in Europe until I retired in 2004. With Brexit, I decided to apply for an Australian passport, as I am eligible and have a letter from Immigration to that effect.
    Theresa May is calling an election, I believe, because there is a severe backlash among the legal fraternity about Brexit. The Khazarian-run globalists who have been hiding within Judaism as cover and leveraging the anti-semitism as a crybaby diversion for centuries are not happy about Brexit. The harder Theresa May works to stamp out anti-semitism in UK, the more entrenched it has become. I see the snap election as her answer to the dilemma posed by the lawyers in London. My sources for this opinion include Neil Keenan, judge Anna von Reitz, and Rupert Murdoch.

  13. David1

    bernie if your informants are from the Corbyn camp, obviously you will be getting a jaundiced view of the situation. My contacts are from both and 2 are senior Opposition shadow Ministers, one a firm supporter of Corbyn, he agrees about the internal mess.
    Your Independent article may well be a set of figures that agree with your point of view, however you ignore the Guardian writings merely as fiction then, along with the excerpts from their articles, all identified.
    There will be no agreement between us on this topic, so I will move on. Thank you for your input.

  14. Freethinker

    Is this for real? are people going to vote for her?
    Can please someone help me to understand the electorate.

    On the news: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/17/theresa-may-conservative-tory-policy-older-people-pay-for-social-care#comment-98787669
    Tory manifesto: more elderly people will have to pay for own social care
    More elderly people will have to pay for their own social care in the home and lose universal benefits under a new Conservative policy which, Theresa May will say on Thursday, is difficult but necessary to tackle the crisis in funding.

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