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“Dr Napthine also mentioned Victoria’s wins on the Gonski education reforms, the National Disability Insurance Scheme and law and order as significant improvements.”

The Australian, 30/11/14


Actually, Napthine referred to the “so-called” (?) Gonski reforms. And he didn’t use the word “wins” as far as I can recall, but there needs to be a little spin on it, as both Gonski and the NDIS were introduced by that “dysfunctional” Labor Government, so his decision to sign up has to be seen as a “win” by The Australian, because, God knows, Napthine has nothing else that could be described that way during his short time as Premier.

When Julia Gillard said: “If I could put it as clearly as I can . . . ‘don’t write crap. Can’t be that hard. And when you have written complete crap, then I think you should correct it”, she pretty much hit the nail on the head. Over the past few weeks, the media have been feeding us such gems as:

“This election will be decided in a few key marginal seats.” Compared to all the elections where the marginal seats aren’t key?

This was followed by: “Labor will need to win a majority of these to claim government.” What, you mean they can’t just have a military coup?

And on Friday, we had a wonderfully considered analysis which told us that Dr. Napthine was “closing the gap” and the election – which everyone was saying would be tight – would be tighter, because, well, one opinion poll showed it tighter than the opinion poll that predicted a Labor landslide the week before. Let me point out for the 237th time, polls have a margin of error and any individual poll can be an outlier, so it’s never reasonable to make any conclusions about a single poll – beyond, of course, this poll is consistent/inconsistent will all the previous polls.

But no, the media concluded that the trend showed that if the drop in Labor support of 2% from the week before the poll, then the election would be close. I’m surprised that they didn’t also conclude that if the election could be delayed until next February, then, according to the trend, there’d be nobody that was voting Labor .

We’ve also been told the Daniel Andrews was adopting a small target strategy at the same time the press was attacking him for his decision to “rip up” the East-West Tunnel contract. The Liberals are insisting that ripping up the contract is impossible owing to the fact that one of the conditions of the contract was that it would be locked in a secure location and hidden where nobody would ever see it, and that the contractors would just get whatever payments had been agreed to in the contract without the need for anyone to ever read it.

Whatever, Andrews policy on this doesn’t strike me as someone who’s adopting a “small target” approach.

Now I’m sure that we’ll have various articles from the Murdoch press talking about how Labor was risking $1,000,000+ by their stance on the East-West link. Never mind that the Liberals signed the contract just a few weeks ago, and according to the (ex) Treasurer, the Government will still have to pay the billion or so, even if the Court challenge by the various city councils prevents the road tunnel from proceeding. Never mind that it was the Liberals who couldn’t delay the contract because – after all – didn’t they know that there was a risk that Labor could get in and refuse to build the road.

But I found the most awe-ispiring comments last night came from the defeated candidates and the Liberal commentators.

Apparently, the timing of the election made it hard. I mean, there was the Grand Final just last September and it was really hard to get people interested in state politics while that was going on, and, of course, it was followed by three minute race just a few weeks ago, which apparently is still occupying our minds to the extent that we can’t even remember Michael O’Brien’s name. Yes, the footy finals and the Spring Carnival really hampered the Liberals in spite of the fact that they always happen at this time of the year and the state election only happens every four years – just after these events.

And there were some great comments from a couple of the candidates complaining that unions got behind Labor and helped them. Apparently, Labor had people turning up to support Mr Andrews at various events. Well, not so much people, as unionists – you know, those ambos, and teachers, and firefighters and nurses and construction workers and factory workers and butchers, bakers and candlestick makers. I was half-expecting one to say that the other problem was that the unionists votes were counted just like they were actually members of the public, and if democracy could be restricted to the proper people like it was in Ancient Greece then the slaves would be excluded from voting.

But one final observation, McMahon replaced Gorton and was promptly trounced at the next election. Kirner replaced Cain mid-term and went on to lose. Gillard took over from Rudd and managed to cobble together a minority government, but still had less seats than the LNP. Bracks resigned, but even then, Brumby lost the next election. I’m sure there are a few other examples, but it does seem – with the exception of Paul Keating in 1993 – that the electorate don’t respond well when leaders are changed mid-term.

Perhaps it would be a mistake for the Liberals to replace Tony mid-term.

Then again…


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  1. John Fraser


    A sad day when Journalists stopped going to the pub.

    To gauge …. as Jones said …. the pub test.

    Robb the drinks waiter has received his order from Credlin and is saying the Unions won the election.

    Apparently Victorians prefer the thug Setka to the thug Abbott Abbott.

    And even more from the drinks waiter …. its all the Unions fault and victorians must … by inference …. be dumb.

  2. Salstarat

    The Victorian election was LOST and they lost convincingly! Napthine is delusional when he said that they were handed a mess by the previous Labor government … they were handed a AAA rated State economy so their “spin” about inheriting a State government in disarray is a complete and ABSOLUTE LIE … Lies are something the Australian public are becoming to expect from the unconscionable LNP at State and Federal levels. The Napthine government were kicked out because they absolutely DESTROYED the TAFE system and left the public transport system in chaos. They really did not achieve a single thing except, at least, Napthine had the foresight to continue with the Gonski reforms introduced by Labor.

    To top that off, the federal LNP are SO IMMENSELY ARROGANT that they can’t even accept the very REAL negative and disastrous impact they had on the Victorian state election. The tangible hatred and contempt that the overwhelming majority of Australians have for the despicable Abbott and his cabinet of callous, inept psychopaths is overwhelming! Abbott hasn’t got the intelligence, insight nor foresight to see that the catastrophic loss to Napthine’s State LNP is a DIRE WARNING that will be repeated in NSW and, especially, in Queensland when the unspeakable environmental vandals and totally corrupt Campbell Newman government is toppled at the next state election!

    Abbott and his band of corrupt mongrel sociopaths are INCAPABLE of listening to the electorate and that is WHY they are DEAD MEN WALKING … their staggering loss at the next federal election will bring so much joy to the overwhelming majority of Australians and be celebrated around the world. Abbott is a knuckle dragging, regressive little pariah who has destroyed our international reputation and turned Australia into a parochial backwater and a haven for his red neck, xenophobic racist BOGAN following who, thank God, are becoming the flat earth, fringe dwelling minority!

  3. Blanik

    What can on say after that, Salstarat. I wish that I could add to it, but you’ve covered it completely. Thank you.

    ‘Tis a wonderful morning in Victoria.

  4. Ricardo29

    Yep, can’t top that although if you have a look at the LNP supporters webpage there are many denialists predicting disaster and a few interstaters saying (eg a Queenslander) we won’t have a change of govt. because of the great work being done… Etc etc. the ability of Lib voters to self delude, aided by the Murdoch rags, is breathtaking, as is their inability to see how bad their scumbag governments are.

  5. DanDark

    The excuses will come thick and fast, I saw the one goose who whined “well we have got the footy,then the races, people havnt had time to think about politics” ….Footy finished 2 months ago and Melbourne cup was a month ago…Liberals lost not because of these reasons, they lost because they make up crap as they go, like that piss poor excuse in an interview last night by a Lib Ostrich…

  6. rossleighbrisbane

    Actually to be fair, DanDark, the Melbourne Cup was only three and a half weeks before the election, not a month so there’s no way we could have such a quick turnaround to start thinking about the election. I always need at least a couple of years after the Cup before I can adjust to thinking on other topics.
    Of course, the actual subtext of the suggestion by the Liberals has two rather insulting aspects to it:
    1. The public can’t actually think about more than one thing at a time, and
    2. Surely nobody who actually thought at about politics would vote against the Liberals.

    Personally, I suspect the more aware Victorians were, the less likely they’d be to vote for such a self-interested, incompetent group of clowns.

  7. John Fraser


    I don't know who won the last Melbourne Cup. …………because it hasn't been run yet.

    boom boom !

  8. DanDark

    Ross tooo funny lol
    yes “folks are dumb where I come from” according to that Lib
    We cannot multi task, we need more time to sort through the bullshit they pump out is what he was saying, they had no clear air for months, blah blah blah,, what a whinge he had, but none were the real reason for their loss.
    Next they will suggest we ban state elections, using sport as a reason and folks don’t have time for sport when we have an election LOL
    But I am soooooo happy today, they can bleat on as much as they want, the libs are just poor losers and need to have a good sook 🙂

  9. DanDark

    John F
    I wonder if Smokin Joe is playing this song today ROFL
    like I am over and over 🙂

  10. Möbius Ecko

    …the ability of Lib voters to self delude…

    This is an interesting one in that the Right so often assail the Left for being unbending and never criticising the Left, stated as though they are fair and balanced in their commentary and criticisms.

    One infamous Neil comes to mind in this.

    I clearly remember the heavy criticisms of the terrible NSW Labour State government from the Left in Dunlop’s old blog we were a part of, Joni, Migs, Carol, FU and so many other, sorry if I’ve left you out, who didn’t hold back in their deserved damnation of it. Yet we still had right wingers saying we never went against Labor, all the while you had a better chance of getting blood from a stone than getting them to admit blatant failures and malfeasance from the Liberals.

    We’re seeing it again with not just the failure of the the Victorian Liberals, but Abbott’s role in it and his government’s obvious shortcomings and bankruptcy.

    The born-to-rule mentality is strong in these ones, and they will contort any reality in self delusion to make their loser a winner and the winner a loser. This was so evident with the Liberal Josh Fryderberg who ended his interview on ABC News inferring that the four years of Labor is just an aberrant blip and the Liberals will be returned with a huge majority after the unions destroy the State.

  11. pappinbarafoxPappinbarra Fox

    I got my power bill on Friday. I was overjoyed to see that there was a reduction due to the termination of the carbon price. I got $0.68 reduction. Just another $549.32 to go to meet Tony’s claim. Yipppeeee.
    Bring back the carbon price I say!!!

  12. Möbius Ecko

    pappinbarafoxPappinbarra Fox. There’s a study doing the rounds that shows the reduction of energy bills from the scrapping of the carbon price varies widely across the country.

    This seems incongruous as it was a set rate pricing so surely if Abbott has worked out that $550 should be the saving then that, or a set figure should be the saving across the board.

  13. diannaart

    …that the electorate don’t respond well when leaders are changed mid-term…

    Even though mention was muted if not completely overlooked… caused barely a ripple – unlike when Gillard deposed Rudd – one could be forgiven for thinking that such shenanigans had never happened before what with all that Sturm und Drang. I guess now it is acceptable… for some reason… Therefore, I am not entirely sure if the change of leadership was much of a factor.

    More likely, even the hoi polloi can tell when blackmail tactics, such as the East-West sign-up on the final afternoon of sitting, despite the best efforts of the Murdochracy ( Occasionally the electorate can work out for themselves the Libs didn’t really create anything, apart from the usual slash and burn of anything slightly equitable – a pale echo of their big bro in Canberra.

    Whatever, Labor won even without preferencing that other progressive party the Greens. This should make some people very happy indeed. What it won’t do is place care and repair of our environment to first place in stuff that really needs to be started.

    Here we go again.

  14. Bacchus

    I wouldn’t be too overconfident of a Queensland win yet Salstarat. We have Campbell Newman spending $11.2 million + on its “Strong Choices” campaign propaganda and who knows how much on trumpeting the wins they’re having with hospital waiting lists without, of course, mentioning that the money for that program comes from the Gillard government’s National Health Reform Agreement, or that commonwealth funding they now receive is $1.1 billion p.a. more than in 2007-08.

    Then we have the Murdoch rag in this town supporting Newman to the hilt – watch this ramp up as we approach the election.

    There’s also the minor problem of coming off a low of having only nine members out of 89 seats in the parliament – that usually takes a couple of elections to recover from. Fingers crossed, 2015 will be an exception.


  15. Mike

    I’ve got a feeling Dennis knew exactly what he was saying re: gonski etc and was much rather subtly letting political poison tony know all about it, bearing in mind he was quick to concede defeat and run for the hills. “Can one blame him”

  16. David

    I have a sneaky feeling in the bones, we are not only beginning to hear the Abbott death rattle but that of a couple of the Murdoch gutter rags. The Herald Sun being top of the list.

  17. stephentardrew

    Lovely day chaps.

    My little Chrisy present is in the bag.

    Christmas has come early.

    A fine day for celebration and well earned relaxation.

    Just for one day I can forget Tony Baloney knowing his ship is sinking and Asbestos come Uranium Queen is counting the numbers.

    Me thinks the calm before the storm though its getting pretty rough out there in LNP land regardless.

    The loony has painted with broad strokes of stupidity that I am afraid will not wash off with a change of fool for fool.

    Time the country started to realize the Liberals don’t give a shit about them unless they are corporate farms or big super duper miners.

    But sadly country folk will keep voting against their best interests all because of the scary Union boggy.

    Oh for the good old days when we really could kick but.

    Still I smirk at you for failures self-inflicted and rejoice in your demise.

  18. Annie B

    David –

    How right you are. …… The Murdoch rag ” the Sunday Herald-Sun” here in Victoria, headlined “Dan the Man” …. huge font. But more interestingly, the bolded secondary which was above the big stuff – and it said :


    Which of course is a very direct shot at the head of the Abbott.

    As I said elsewhere ( in a rather – er – long rant about the MSM on another post !! ) ……… the media will turn on a threepence if it suits them to do so. …. Do a 180° turn. Friends become enemies and vice versa. The day BEFORE the event, the headline in the same Herald Sun rag re the Victorian election, said :

    ………..” >>>>> Dangerous time to change ” ……… which in effect praised the efforts of BOTH Andrews and Napthine almost equally – and then ended the article by urging Victoria to ” vote for a return of the LNP ” ??

    So when Labor gets voted in, they turn around and stick needles into the Libs ……… LOL.

    Certainly nothing we read, watch or listen to in this countrys’ mainstream media, can be taken with anything more than a grain of salt.

  19. Matters Not

    Bacchus said:

    usually takes a couple of elections to recover

    Certainly does. To go from 9 to 45, a gain of 36, will require a virtual landslide. Sure there’s some ‘low hanging fruit’ such as Sandgate, Nudgee and the like but the current incumbents always start with an advantage and some undoubtedly will have built support over the last three years.

    While I want a win and will work to achieve same, I am not expecting it. What would delight me is a win by Kate Jones in Ashgrove.

    Re the advertising campaign, I am surprised it’s only costing $11.2 million. The ads are in plague proportions. Surely they must be annoying the voters.

  20. stephentardrew


    Have predicted as much for a long time that market forces and a certain amount of pissoffedness by journalist could turn the media enough to make a difference. They are market driven after all and the Austdictator is on the slide.

    Just imagine the deep seated urge for payback for the LNP resting dormant at the ABC and SBS.

    Malcom the Dud is desperately trying to deconstruct the ABC and SBS knowing it is a poisoned chalice that voters do not want screwed with.

    Turnbull is signing their final death warrant.

    May take a little time but the seeds of revolt are brewing and they know it.

    Censorship in a democracy is just plain befuddled and stupid.

    Lets not minimise the masochistic stupidity of the LNP.

  21. mars08


    I can see what’s needed here…. some solid summer bushfires!!!! If young Tones can get himself into some overalls and behind the wheel of a fire truck… all will be forgiven.

    Oh, and maybe some REALLY LOUD terrorism alerts!!!!

  22. David

    I fear it will take a decent kick in the backside to shift ABC News24 into a position of balance and equal time as demanded by their charter.
    Example..lunch news brief interviews with Premier elect Andrews 70secs and shorter with LOTO Shorten30secs followed by a 6 min load of the same Tory drivel we are used to from the distasteful Josh Freydenberg.
    Victorian result had nothing to do with Federal policies, was strictly run on State matters, obviously majority wanted Napthine’s Abbott funded East West corridor (spare me) and Vic Libs inherited a financial mess and restored the State economy and the best he left till last…the vote is not conclusive ALP wont have a majority in the Upper House so will never get their legislation through. Just as well he had finished the screen was in grave danger of destruction.
    That smart arse is one of Abbott’s rising stars. Lord help us, they know not what they do.

  23. Happy sack

    Wow have never been so happy about being so wrong the billion dollars debt threats didn’t work!!! Hooray Hooray Hooray for the workers of Victoria.

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