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What will happen in the aftershock of the coronavirus? (part one)

With the curve allegedly starting to flatten, writers and political commentators are already speculating about what might happen in the immediate future when the virus has run its course and the damage it caused has been assessed.

The Prime Minister has already said that things will just “snap back” and return to where they were. But is that really the case? Is it even politically feasible?

I would like to think that this event might be the catalyst for change: Economic and social change for the better.

Let’s take a look at what might happen in the aftershock of the coronavirus?

Before we do let’s keep in mind the words of Greg Sheridan (pay-walled):

“The government’s massive fiscal intervention in the Australian economy, entirely justified by the gravity of the COVID-19 crisis, will change center-right politics in this country forever. You cannot make the need for small government, free markets and less state intervention your chief political narrative if you have just used government on a scale never before imagined to rescue the nation from a desperate health emergency”

Will the government – when the time comes for “snap back” to occur – just pull the switch and magically everything will return to its unfair and unequal state?

How would you feel if you were already on Newstart and were then required to return to an amount that all and sundry believed to be grossly unfair and below the poverty line?

Will the “dole-bludger” tag of blame for those who remain unemployed be reinstated by a reinvented philosophy?

Or you are part of the 10% plus who lost their jobs and found themselves on Newstart’s new fortnightly payout only to find it reduced to a pittance.

How would you feel if after you had experienced free child minding for six months that helped save your job and then found that you were back paying the full fee?

What if your wages had been subsidised by the government to keep you on your employer’s payroll only to find that when eventually you returned to work the company had lost a contract and had to put you off. On top of that, the government had reverted to once again calling you a “dole bludger” or a “leaner”..

The Prime Minister is on the record as saying: “We have to get back to where we were before.”

Is he serious? Does he think politically speaking that he could explain the politics of such a move in a few interviews?

The conservative mindset of paying down the debt might be chaffing at the bit to do so, but is it politically feasible?

You simply cannot use one philosophy to resolve an issue and then revert back to your own when the job is completed. It would be political suicide.

He has ruled out any restructuring of franking credits and indicated that the tax cuts will go ahead.

Our stimulus measures were “temporary, expenditure,” he said last week, adding:

“There is a snap back to the previous existing arrangements on the other side of this … So there is an intensity of expenditure during this period, and then we have to get back to what it was like before, and then we have to deal with the burden that will be carried out of this period of time.”

After spending $200 billion on stimulating the economy and then to go ahead with tax cuts when raising them seems to be the logical thing to do is a bit beyond me.

Guardian Australia’s Greg Jericho also said last week that:

“… the tax cuts were predicated on rosy budget forecasts over the next decade, which are now laughable and will either have to be shelved or paid for with deep cuts to expenditure.

‘Given we are very likely to experience a period of ongoing low revenue, the only way to have the tax cuts be budget neutral is to cut services – and the cuts will have to be much larger than previously expected’.”

Paying back the debt (the $200 billion in stimulus measures), according to Scott Morrison, is:

“… going to put a great strain on the country, clearly, but … one that is absolutely necessary given the circumstances that we face.”

Yet he:

“ruled out franking-credit reform or the shelving of tax cuts.”

We will have to wait until October’s “Snap back” budget to find out just who is going to pay back this debt and how. There are only three areas where that sort of money is available. It is in education, health or social services, although I’m sure they will take the opportunity to give the ABC a going over.

My sarcasm aside, most Australians are sitting on their bums at home in perfect isolation without the faintest idea of what is about to hit them. The word “recession” doesn’t have the tone of alarm about it but having experienced every one since Menzies’ 1963 through to Keating’s one that we had to have, they are most unpleasant.

Might we see a 2 per cent budget repair levy or the GST increased to 15 per cent and extended to everything including food, but no new taxes?

Morrison may be receiving accolades for his handling of the COVID-19 crisis but it doesn’t make up for seven years of appalling governance. Can you trust a government that has been lying to you for seven years?

But let’s move on. Now that all sides of our democracy have tasted the salt of bipartisanship is it not possible to use the events of the last year as a catalyst for change? To recognise that now is the time to give economics a human face and cement a marriage between it and society.

The big banks have set the scene for change and accepted that money should have a humane face going into the future. Why not the government?

ANZ Bank chief executive Shayne Elliott in an interview with Clancy Yeates of the Sydney Morning Herald spelt it out:

“We’re already being a shock absorber by being able to say to customers: ‘You know what, if you want a deferral and not pay us for six months, you can do that,'” … “Does it come at a cost to shareholders? I would argue it already has.”

“… He predicted the crisis could have lasting impacts on consumers’ attitudes to debt, the housing market, and how people do their banking.”

“Australia in the future won’t look the same,” he said. “It won’t look the same because it will impact a whole generation of our customers, the way they think about technology, the way they think about borrowing, the way they think about employment, the way they think about frankly the capitalist system and democracy.”

Both major parties – during this crisis – have shown a spirit of bi-partisanship that has been both encouraging and enlightening, but can it last? The Premiers’ responses have also been welcome.

However, all the emergency measures are undoubtedly designed with all the elasticity needed to snap back into place at the end of there usefulness.

As I said earlier, it must be problematical as to whether the public will accept the “snapback” or consider it a “payback.”

 

 

The government will be forced to explain its adaption of “flexible ideology“ and if it will be ongoing. After all, it is a form of political philosophy never tried before – an experiment of great economical and societal significance.

Even conservative commentators have acknowledged that the centre-right, or the further-right, of politics will have to find a new narrative to sell to the electorate. “The centre-right politics is going to be in desperate need of a new political narrative,” suggests Lenore Taylor.

The National Cabinet has proven to be an effective way to manage a crisis but there will come a time when normality will regain its place. Is it then that we will likely witness an inevitable return of ideological differences?

If we can have ‘free‘ childcare for six months why can we not have it all the time?

When the current wave of stimulus has reached the shore and all but evaporated into the waiting sand the country and its householders will be left in a sand pit of debt.

How will we possibly repay it? How will we resurrect our economy our society and everything that goes with it?

As unpalatable as the choices are, decisions will have to be reached. Given the track record of this government my mood is grim and foreboding.

My thought for the day

One of the oddities of political polling is trying to understand how 51 per cent of the voting public would willingly return a party that has governed so abysmally.

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30 comments

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  1. Andrew Smith

    Will be interesting to see how Sheridan’s employer’s, fellow travellers and ideological think tanks are going to strategize out of this one to keep on track with radical right libertarianism?

  2. New Eng;and Cocky

    Perhaps the foreign owned multinational corporations could pay tax in Australia on their billion dollar turnover before charging Australia with their in-house inflated interest loans.

  3. Marilyn Shepherd

    And the truth is we will have sacked millions of people, spend hundreds of billions, destroyed millions of lives, treated sick people like criminals and all based on the dodgy hysterical ranting of Norman Swan and his millions of deaths schtick. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/ to date the spend will be about $21 million for each person who got a small virus. In all my 67 years I have never, ever seen the whole country shut down over the lie that this corona virus is any different to all the other coronaviruses that cause 20% of common colds every year and up to 15% of flu cases.

  4. Keitha Granville

    Marilyn, are you serious ?? Conservatively, this ‘small virus’ will kill a million people. It is more highly contagious than any we have yet seen and more deadly, given that once settled in the lungs of any age, let alone those already compromised, it kills. In spite of all medical expertise we have, it kills. I hope you have no relatives who succumb. Perhaps you believe that climate science is nonsense at well, that would explain it.

    Putting aside that head in the sand nonsense –

    We don’t need to pay back this debt. It’s a war. Put it aside when it’s over and pay off the interest which is negligible, and get on with rebuilding the economy. I would love to think that the government will see an inclusive, fairer and kinder society is a good thing. Pigs might fly. The only good thing about a return to before will be the chance that the bulk of the electorate will see the truth of this dreadful government for what it is and vote them out.

    We will need an opposition worth fighting for.

  5. Kaye Lee

    Meanwhile, the IPA is calling for an end to the lockdown now.

    “Our response to the coronavirus outbreak has decimated our society, ruined thousands of lives, turned Australia into a police state and, worst of all, put hundreds of thousands of Australians out of work,” Rozner says.

    He says it is time for state and federal governments to come up with a plan on how to win the lockdown and let people rebuild their lives.

    “Do it safely with appropriate social distancing measures in place, but do it now, not in six months, not in one month. Now, because Australians were not meant to live like this, and we cannot allow this to go on any longer,” he says.

    “Enough is enough. It is time to begin to end this lockdown now.”

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-experts-slam-calls-for-lockdown-to-be-reversed-in-australia-but-loosening-some-restrictions-may-be-possible/news-story/6bf4a7d4175a68098a5996184e48748a

    These irresponsible idiots should be shutdown. Marilyn, you obviously have absolutely no understanding of this virus and no medical knowledge whatsoever. Please STOP. Millions will die if people do not listen. Our health system will be overwhelmed. This is NOTHING like the flu.

  6. whatever

    This Govt. is only spending big as an emergency measure, they do not believe in BUDGETING this amount of money……..”Why should we waste all this on the likes of you?” is the core LNP philosophy, and they are referring to most of the idiots who voted for them.

    I am thankful that I will probably never again hear the above stated idiots begin a sentence with “Now, I’m a TAXPAYER, and therefore…..”

  7. Matters Not

    As Andrew Bolt is to climate change so is Marilyn Shepherd to coronavirus. Guess you don’t have to be young to be foolish.

    Don’t censor Marilyn. Let her destroy herself.

  8. Kaye Lee

    “Our ABC are going to bore the population to death over a tiny virus and then bore the virus to death” says Marilyn

    Marilyn also opines “This is ridiculous, the virus is not spread by healthy pple going on holiday”. Tell that to thousands of healthy people who set out on a cruise.

  9. wam

    A heaut ‘giggke’ today with a hidden omg laugh
    “s he serious? Does he think politically speaking that he could explain the politics of such a move in a few interviews? ”
    ‘explain’ is not an hillsong christian concept they have ‘tell and believe’. Besides the corona is big and now and the GFC is long in the past and didn’t really affect us, he will not explain why??
    Do you not talk to people who don’t share your belief in ‘abysmal’ and are frightened by the extremists? Take time to sit and listen to see the danger of relying on your values you may understand why smirko won last year and is over 60% now, You could create a new page and visit some lnp, police, army sites ??

    Do you wonder why the shock jocks aren’t screaming about debt? Is albo able to capitalise? Will he get the timing right? Is it now the time to gloat over hockey, the rabbott tlob jones et al?
    Is it time for you and kaye to wring a concession out of your rabbottian friends and relatives over the GFC?

    Will pink batt style rorts be monitored by albo’s boys or girls? Then trumpeted on the morning shows? Probably not smirko has thought of that and the states have accepted his chalice from the palace with the brew that is true or the vessel with the pestle??

    ps marilyn this virus causes pneumonia it is not a cold or flu such en association is obstructive and disguises the fact that, for the vulnerable, this is deadly

  10. calculus witherspoon.

    Am afraid I digress to John Lord and his minor point concerning the takeover by stealth of democracy here and elsewhere under cover of Covid 19 and the recession it is inducing as communities panic.

    Marilyn maybe right that the public and the virus will be bored to death by the hamstrung and marginalised ABC, let alone MSM in general, despite the efforts of people like Ellen Fanning on last night’s Drum.

    But the evidence pointing to the new reality comes more from the revelations concerning the cruise ships and their crews, increasing unrestrained secrecy and surveillance and the abominable treatment of subcategories of the New Unemployed, indigenes and DV victims without shelters to flee to. This against the backdrop of long term spending cuts for various vital infrastructures contrasted against hundreds of $ billions suddenly available for stimulus, as politicians and public servants scramble desperately to ensure their previous agendas are not threatened by unfolding events. Do not expect to find out much about massive scams and enviro destruction in the new age though.

    Do people REALLY think those running things are going to change their spots?

    And yes, the virus will probably be bored to death and what’s more much quicker than the public, should my hunch as to relative intelligence be confirmed.

  11. Kronomex

    “The Prime Minister is on the record as saying: “We have to get back to where we were before.””

    Oh joy, the rorts, the corruption, the rabid “christianisation” of the adults in charge, the ongoing erosion of democracy, the demonising of the little people, ad nauseam…I just can’t wait.

  12. Wanderer

    Thank you. Under the smokescreen of the virus NSW has lifted planning controls for development. NSW, at least, will definitely look different afterward. Also, logging of forests is now at unprecedented levels, despite clear evidence of the long term impact on climate and environment. Labour protections and awards are under threat.
    As others have said.. these leopards’ spots are still prolific.. and will remain and diversify. Opportunistic neo capitalism is alive and thriving.

  13. Win Jeavons

    People who believe in a quick ‘ snapback’ have clearly never experienced the elastic in their underwear just relaxing to the point it ceases to be elastic ever again. At that point you either replace the elastic or buy a new garment. Given ongoing climate change I would suggest we invest in a new garment.

  14. Robert

    Hi John Lord, the only ‘snap back’ that is going to happen is the one when our leaders realise they are required to stay in lockstep with Agenda 21, in lockstep with the dictates of the UN and WHO, in lockstep with the new normal of ‘Sustainable Development’ – a place where the freedoms we once took for granted go to die.

    Hi Marilyn, I tend to agree. The shutdown of the economy could well do more harm than good.
    Try this from microbiologist specialist ‘Dr Sucharit Bhakdi: Corona virus COVID-19- hype & hysteria? Demystification of the nightmare!’ March 29, 2020 – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5FHQDpzkMw

    Also, the possibility exists that the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of covid19 is flawed as noted by this doctor
    ‘FROM NYC ICU: DOES COVID-19 REALLY CAUSE ARDS??!! March 31, 2020
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9GYTc53r2o
    “I am a physician who has been working at the bedside of COVID+ patients in NYC. I believe we are treating the wrong disease and that we must change what we are doing if we want to save as many lives as possible.” If you know of someone working in ICU, ask their thoughts.

    Two nights ago I watched a segment ‘Coronavirus: does 5G technology actually cause COVID-19? | 7NEWS April 07, 2020’ – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F3lKtxNNLo
    “With theories circulating online that 5G technology is to blame for the COVID-19 pandemic, our experts present the facts behind the claims.”

    My research reveals that 5G operating at 60GHz frequency can cause respiratory distress. That fact seems to be overlooked. Would it make sense to investigate any ICU patients’ prior contact with 5G devices (on Cruise ships, in ICU wards, etc)? It is possible covid19 and illnesses caused by 5G are being lumped in the same basket? Why not check out the possibility at least?

    This leads to another question: Why hasn’t 5G been tested by our govt before being rolled out?
    Perhaps they know it would never pass safety testing? Is that possible?

    The claim by the media that 5G is inherently safe and causes no illness is not true.
    I leave you with these –
    US Naval Medical Research Institute Study (1972):
    https://www.emfresearch.com/us-nmri-studies/
    This US Navy report documents the connection of 122 bioeffects to microwaves. “Bibliography of Reported Biological Phenomena (Effects) and Clinical Manifestations attributed to Microwave and Radio-Frequency Radiation.”; and
    ‘Seletun Statement’ 2009 – http://www.iemfa.org/seletun-statement/

  15. Kaye Lee

    A conspiracy theory claiming 5G can spread the coronavirus is making the rounds on social media. The myth supposedly gained traction when a Belgian doctor linked the “dangers” of 5G technology to the virus during an interview in January.

    Peddling such misinformation is not only wrong, it’s destructive.

    5G radiation can’t penetrate skin, or allow a virus to penetrate skin. There is no evidence 5G radio frequencies cause or exacerbate the spread of the coronavirus.

    Also, the protein shell of the virus is incapable of hijacking 5G radio signals. This is because radiation and viruses exist in different forms that do not interact. One is a biological phenomenon and the other exists on the electromagnetic spectrum.

    Youtube has announced it will devote resources to removing content linking 5G technology to COVID-19.

    The announcement came after fingers were pointed at one video, published on March 18 (and viewed more than 668,000 times), in which an American doctor claims incorrectly that Africa is less affected by COVID-19 because it’s not a 5G region.

    https://theconversation.com/no-5g-radiation-doesnt-cause-or-spread-the-coronavirus-saying-it-does-is-destructive-135695

    The youtube video you linked to (our experts present the facts behind the claims) states very clearly that your theory is impossible bullshit Robert. Do you post links hoping people won’t look at them? Did YOU even look at it? Your link to the 1972 paper doesn’t even exist.

  16. Potoroo

    @Robert

    You need to update your conspiracy theories. The UN has replaced the always voluntary guidelines for sustainable development called Agenda 21 with a new set of voluntary guidelines for sustainable development called Agenda 30. Isn’t that exciting! It’ll give you something to “research” whilst you adjust to the sad reality that 5G and Covid-19 have exactly nothing to do with each other.

  17. Jack sprat

    Spectulation tax folks . Most of the money circulating in the economy is in speculation , trading stocks,bonds, commodities ,options and currency trading ,almost as much as all the other section of the economy put together . That is why all governments around the world answer to Wall street . A 1% tax on all trades would have any government rolling in money and even out mass tradings based on small margin gains which cause a lot of uncertainty in the market . People love to gamble and like any gambling should be taxed on it , if introduced the stimulus package would be paid off in a year and also achieve a huge surplus .But alas getting it pass the wolves of wall street is another matter .

  18. andy56

    kate lee, 5g and the virus, who would have thought? Microwave proof virus, who would have thought? These idiots should be allowed to believe anything they want, hell, send them on a cruise. Anyone who even entertains this as plausible should have a large L stamped on their forehead. As for covid 19 being no worse than a cold or the flu, shit ah, should we expose her as an experiment? Maybe not, when the shit hits the fan these people are cowards disguised as idiots. Sympathy level 000

  19. andy56

    “My research reveals that 5G operating at 60GHz frequency can cause respiratory distress. That fact seems to be overlooked. Would it make sense to investigate any ICU patients’ prior contact with 5G devices (on Cruise ships, in ICU wards, etc)? It is possible covid19 and illnesses caused by 5G are being lumped in the same basket? Why not check out the possibility at least?”

    fuck me dead, well educated idiot too !! 60ghz radiation is going to cause all sorts of issues, same as arsenic, same as a dose of plutonium, a dose or two of agent orange. Microwaves are a know hazard to hydrocarbon life forms, we have known this for over 100yrs.

    Jack sprat. I disagree, i think there is a lot of money tied up in stranded assets, especially in housing in australia. Simple solutions like “only 1%” are a crock. ” never ever”, and ” raise it to 15%” come to mind. your still in a ” capitalism as an end game thinking mode”.
    this ideology DOSEN’T WORK, look around you. It needs wholesale redressing.

  20. David Stakes

    Marilyn a well known Twitter nutter, who lives in fantasy land. Covid 19 would be a wake up call for her, bet she would scream for help as she slowly suffocates from her so called cold.

  21. Phil

    Marilyn Shepherd. Nanu nanu.

  22. Robert

    Hi Kaye, “5G radiation can’t penetrate skin, or allow a virus to penetrate skin.”
    I’ll the first admit I know next to nothing about viruses. However, EMF is a different story. The main point of my post was to alert readers to the dangers posed by EMF & 5G in particular.
    Firstly, 5G can be broadcast in the range 700MHz to 300GHz;
    from https://www.emf-portal.org/en/cms/page/home/effects/radio-frequency
    The lower the frequency, the greater the depth EMF will reach in a body. Wifi (2.4GHz) penetrates about 50mm. It will pass straight through your outstretched hand, skin will not stop it. The lower frequencies used by mobile networks (sub GHz) will irradiate your body to a depth of about 150mm. For a child or infant that is a big problem, especially for infants as it amounts to full body mass irradiation, not just full surface irradiation.
    I now see my statement was ambiguous. I should have written something like ‘It’s POSSIBLE any cases of respiratory distress illness caused by 5G operating @ 60GHz could be lumped in the same basket as cases of covid19’.
    If it turns out to be the case that Wifi equipment in ICUs are operating @ 60GHz and thereby adding to the carnage, then that is criminal negligence. The government should have done safety testing on all 5G frequencies in the first place and put limits on lethal frequencies at the outset.
    You are right about the NMRI link, it got nuked since last I used it.
    Try: https://rense.com/general96/Navy-Microwave-and-RF-Effects-Brief-1971.pdf
    Andy 56 “60ghz radiation is going to cause all sorts of issues, same as arsenic, same as a dose of plutonium, a dose or two of agent orange.” Thanks for agreeing with my main point, EMF is dangerous yet what testing has been done? None, to hell with the consequences apparently, let’s just irradiate citizens.

  23. Kaye Lee

    So the “With theories circulating online that 5G technology is to blame for the COVID-19 pandemic” line was just clickbait to get our attention before we launched into your pet subject you had prepared earlier…..which may have gone off over time on the bench?

  24. Robert

    Hi Kaye, it was Channel 7 and their routine ‘5G is safe’ piece to air titled ‘‘Coronavirus: does 5G technology actually cause COVID-19?” that got me off the couch. I don’t care for conspiracy theories, I go to source. All I am trying to do is encourage people to do their own research. I see a lot of posters here who are switched on in terms of politics but who are missing the main story, the methodical stripping away of your rights. I have an insight into 5G few on the planet have experienced and lived to tell the tale. That’s it.

  25. king1394

    Despite the social distancing, I don’t see this virus just petering out. When we try to get back to normal, I think there will be a resurgence of the virus, and the same level of problems for the medical profession, hospital capacity etc. There is a lot of expectation that there will be a vaccine or a cure, but there is no guarantee of either.

  26. New England Cocky

    AAAAAHHHHH!!!!! Wake up doubters!!! Look at the death figures!!! This COVID-19 is a real killer of the elderly, over 65 age group, and especially any person in that group who have co-morbidities. In the USA (United States of Apartheid) a person is dying of COVID-19 infection every two minutes!! In New York, the medical system is overwhelmed and reduced the 1,000 bed military hospital assistance to overcrowded.

    @Kaye Lee: Thank you for bringing a little bit of financial commonsense to the AIMN.

  27. Potoroo

    @Robert

    There is no evidence for non-ionising radiation being harmful (short of UV wavelengths), except that if sufficiently powerful it may cause heat. This is after all the operating principle underlying microwave ovens. But mobile phones and wifi equipment operating at a few watts is of no concern to anyone who heeds the evidence.

    And don’t pretend you “don’t care for conspiracy theories”, you who just peddled the Agenda 21 conspiracy garbage just a few hours ago. You love a good conspiracy theory. They make you feel superior to us “sheeple”.

  28. johno

    There have been plenty of substances released into the environment over the decades touted as safe. DDT, Glyphosate and Carbon Dioxcide to name a few. Is 5G safe or not, I don’t know.

  29. Potoroo

    @johno

    5G is radio waves. We have enormous experience with radio waves, more than a century’s worth, potentially affecting billions of people. Any underlying problem with radio waves and biological organisms would have shown up long ago.

  30. leefe

    How in the bloody blue blazes did we get from SooMoFo’s Snapback to 5G conspiracy theories?

    At the risk of derailing the derailment, the LNP’s response to the pandemic will improve their electoral chances. Snapback would destroy them. They will realise that if and when they get around to discussing how to implement it.

    You’d think that by now they would have learnt that , while screws can be loosened rapidly, they must be tightened slowly.

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