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Turnbull looking both ways

For those of us who have been pushing to have Tony Abbott produce his renunciation certificate (his RN form), to show he is no longer a British citizen, we can finally relax. It looks like he’s done it. But it took Australian/New Zealander, Scott Ludlam’s resignation and a twitter poke from Deryn Hinch to finally get him to mention it.

It looks like he’s done it, although what he has released is not actually a certificate, as such, but a letter dated quite recently, from the Permanent Migration Nationality Team in Liverpool, UK, which says that according to their records, he renounced his UK citizenship, and did so on 12th October 1993 (see below).

It’s not a certificate, but perhaps the original certificate was lost. If so, why not ask for a duplicate? Nevertheless, we should all now be satisfied that Tony Abbott has renounced his U.K. citizenship and did so before entering the Australian parliament in 1994.

It’s a relief, in a way. It means he’s going to be around for some time yet and that can only mean more wrecking, more undermining and more sniping. This can only be of benefit to Bill Shorten, who is now looking odds-on to be elected Prime Minister, probably in 2018, although it’s quite possible, he won’t be the next Australian prime minister.

As they say in the media, a week is a long time in politics and within a few months, we might yet see another Liberal PM stand before them and proclaim the party is a broad church, that all is now well and how bad it would be for the country if Bill Shorten were to become prime minister.

The problem for them is that no one is listening anymore.  The problem for Malcolm Turnbull, if he is to avoid a leadership challenge, is to decide when the next election will be held. That decision now lies in the timing of next senate election, a problem he created himself when he called the double dissolution last year.

Under our constitution, the next senate must take its place no later than the 1st July, 2019. For this to happen, a half senate election must be held no later than 18th May 2019.

While an election for the House of Representatives is not required until 2nd November 2019, it is preferable and probable that elections for both houses will be held at the same time. Choosing the date will be tricky.

Waiting until May 18th, 2019 would box the PM into a canyon. Going three months earlier, in February is possible, but messy, given its proximity to the summer holiday break and the start of the school year.

That leaves November 2018 as the most convenient time and this is where it gets tricky. If Turnbull is going to be replaced before the next election, you can be sure those planning the night of the long knives will have done their homework on the possible dates for a necessary early poll.

They would want “their man” to have a reasonable settling-in period; a year or so, possibly eighteen months. The likely candidates are, Bishop, Dutton, Morrison, or if they are looking for a rank outsider, Josh Frydenberg.

That would mean a leadership challenge sometime between now and the end of this year. With current polling suggesting the government could lose more than twenty seats, those government members sitting in marginal seats are getting increasingly nervous and they have a lot of thinking to do.

Which brings us back to Tony Abbott. His seat of Warringah is safe, but is he safe? While he plans to be around for some time, his branch members might have other ideas. A number want him out, preferably right now, and it is possible, albeit unlikely, he will lose pre-selection?

Either way, the conservative right in the party are determined to oust Turnbull as soon as possible and Abbott will want to be there when it happens.

All indications are that either Turnbull, looking both ways, will call an early election to head them off, or a leadership challenge will happen sooner rather than later.

What a delicious thought.

 


31 comments

  1. longwhitekid

    There’s at least a couple of things about Abbott the known fraud suddenly producing the alleged evidence after all this time, that just don’t add up. I’m calling it – I don’t believe it’s true. Why was the kibosh put on the paperwork by him so that anyone requesting it by FOI from government archives was refused access? Millions of documents held, and Abbott was able to call in some kind of special favour yet again. More to the point, he spent the last few years deliberately hiding whatever it was he didn’t want people to see.

  2. Jaquix

    Abbott loves being in the limelight and hasn’t had a headline this week. So Scott Ludlams honorable announcement and dig from Hinch would have given him the chance for one.

  3. denisc

    @longwhitekid
    Yeah, I call bullshit too!

  4. Aussie Pride

    What is interesting is that it was unnamed anonymous unaffiliated member of the public who did the digging investigations to bring down the Greens Senator Ludlum. Reports are coming in that the document Abbott has produced shows the request date to be about a week or two before they brought Ludlam down.

    Why would Abbott after all this time, knowing he had renounced British citizenship decades ago, request proof documentation to the fact, so recently that just happen to coincide with the hatchet job on Ludlum, before anyone, even knew it was going to happen?

    LNP Conservatives Right Wing Hatchet job for sure. Who stands in the way of the LNP think tank current hit list of directives? Let’s see?

    Shut down the Human Rights Commission.
    Stop all traffic light signals from being altered to alternate sexism appropriateness (honestly there’s no limit to the silliness)
    Defund the ABC.
    Stop any chance of a Federal ICAC and shut down all who oppose the directive.
    Continue and ramp up privatisation of all social government programs.
    Continue and ramp up punitive attacks on the poor and defenceless, minorities.
    Ramp up plans to ban immigration of Muslims.
    Increase punitive measures and introductions of the welfare authoritarian Indue card and other monstrosities, using the poor Indigenous as a scapegoat prize donkey example of ‘ look how fabulously this works’ sell it plan to the majority.
    Continue MSM brainwashing.

    And the list goes on and on.

    So.. Who stands in the way of all these things, and the only political force known to have integrity and actually acting in the benefit to the Australian Society and it’s citizens?

    … The Greens!

    R.I.P Ludlam. You’re opening speech was one of the best eye opening shockers i’ve ever heard from an Australian politician. Bloody gunning brilliant! May the attacks on you, provoke many Australians of such calibre to rise up against this great evil suffocating our great land and it’s people.

    For those who haven’t heard the speech it is available on you tube. If only more of our politicians behaved and cared like this.

  5. helvityni

    No rush, Mal has promised that he will be our PM for a very long time…he’s our Elizabethan Republican PM…it’s also nice to have someone sensitive and caring at the helm, someone who gets all teary eyed when visiting disaster sites….

    Abbott loves to be a man of action, to put out bushfires, and to be seen doing it, but sadly as a sideline he starts little political ‘fires’….

    I don’t think Alan Jones likes Frydenberg, he calls him the Minister for Blackouts…

  6. Freethinker

    IMO remove Turnbull will be a political suicide, the have lo let him in power, provoque some very bad blackouts to support coal, get into more “good debts” to spread the money around with the purpose of buying votes, win the next election and then go for the knife with the excuse of he was wrong going soft with alternative energy.

  7. Aussie Pride

    Hahaha I can’t believe i left out the most obvious, biggest one off the list.

    Who’s the biggest environmentalist group standing against Adani and the COALitican? And with renewables becoming the atomic weapon against coal to get the majority on side? ..

    The Greens.

    The Conservatives parties will all preference each other and the Liberals. To stop Bill Shorten and Labor from winning, they do what they do best.. take out the most vulnerable from the minority. Labor need the growing strength of the Greens to govern outright. The right wing, have made unprecedented attacks upon the political structure of our democratic system, to ensure upper house vote blocking is removed, just like they have with the amalgamations of the smaller councils. Effectively silencing the peoples voice.

    It’s all pretty horrifying when you look at the big picture. Hitler indeed. I don’t care if the Nazi’s were left wing, right wing or batwing, the war tactics are the same. Labor is the only political body large enough to stop this. They must stand against this with everything they’ve got. The fate of the country depends upon it. They cannot wimp out, sell out and cop out any longer.

    It’s official. It’s war!

  8. Kaye Lee

    Between 1993 and 1994, Abbott served as Executive Director of Australians for Constitutional Monarchy. It seems very odd that, not long after being appointed chief Queen adorer, he would choose to give up his British citizenship. It wasn’t until 1994 that Howard suggested he seek pre-selection for the by-election in Warringah so why would he choose to renounce in October 1993? With processing time, he must have applied earlier than that. Seems very fishy to me.

  9. susan

    Yes, I call Abbott’s paperwork bullshit too. Has it been apostilled?

  10. Zathras

    I’m wondering why Abbott ignored a public petition plus an earlier formal written request from another MP and why an FOI request to confirm his citizenship status was denied – all for over four years and suddenly now he comes up with a result.

    Probably arrogance or sheer bloody-mindedness.

    Whatever the reason I’m guessing he doesn’t want this hanging over him when he makes whatever move he has in mind.

  11. Kaye Lee

    Yes Zathras. The letter is dated 7 January 2016. Why ask for it then and why wait to release it now?

  12. Dave

    More lies abbott?

  13. jamesss

    my Bullshit Meter is pushing 110% of a truthful word ever leaving the buggy smugglers self serving lips.
    We are speaking of politicians here, referred to in these very pages of the past as Treasonous Traitors.

  14. Möbius Ecko

    …it is not a legalised document in accordance with the Apostille Convention ie it is not legally acceptable.

    I don’t know what the Apostille Convention is, but I came across a conversation that questions the legality of the document Abbott has produced.

  15. Aussie Pride

    Honestly guys & gals, i can understand you’re distrust, and i agree with you; whenever it comes to the LNP and conservative parties it’s been found to be underhanded, deceit, lies, harmful, treacherous, manipulative, dishonest, corruption, well i think that describes it enough.

    However.. let’s keep our credibility by applying rational thought. If one was found to be dual citizen in parliament, according to the law, one would have to repay all salaries & expenses. That would total enough to be in the over a million for someone who’s served as long as Tony.

    My guess. He’s legitimate in that he’s allowed to be serving. He gave up his dual citizenship a long time ago.

    However..the recent nonsense to me, shows it was the Liberals who took out the Greens senator by way of their usual underhanded, sly, manipulative, cheating methods. And Abbott knew about it, made sure he had proof of his, as he knew the first question demanded by us would be, where’s Abbotts? .. and ta da!!.. how well organised..he promptly just happens to have a newly printed version of proof.

    He’s not lying about it. He’s intentionally being deceitful, as always, about not knowing who knee capped the Greens Senator. Nothing is honest or decent about these people. I used to at least like Tony’s dedication and loyalty to the Libs, but now i’m just thoroughly disgusted with all of them. My stomach turns when i think of the level of deceit, fraud, abuse, ugghhh..they are revolting excuses for human beings, the lot of them. The level of damage their greed for money & power & egoism has caused is so huge it’s beyond comprehension.

    For a bunch of church goers it’s right up there with pediphile priests and the vatican cover ups.

  16. longwhitekid

    Oh please…tell that to that piece of trash Eric Abetz who served for 14 years with dual citizenship and somehow still has his job! I’d love for him to repay everything and piss off back under the damp rock he crawled out from.

  17. bobrafto

    I just simply do not buy it.

    Abbott’s dodgy letter of course.

    And I’m sure that you know Abbott like I know Abbott and that letter automatically makes the nostrils flare.

    The Tone could have had Lord Downer arrange a very discreet letter or a similar letter could have been obtained and transformed in Photoshop.

    Either way I won’t be happy until their is verification of the register and a copy of the original renunciation document with an imprint of a date stamp.

    I wonder if the Tone has a Plan B if he finds himself embarrassingly exposed.

    Desperate men do desperate things and this renunciation letter was a long time coming.

  18. Miriam English

    Anyone would have rocks in their head to think old Phony Tony wasn’t above a bit of forgery. The bugger lies his tits off at the drop of a hat. But yes, I do hope he stays on to continue to be a thorn in the side of all the nitwits in the LNP. Thank goodness they don’t have the brains to get rid of the twerp. With him kicking Turnbull in the nuts and throwing mud in his face they have next to no chance at the next election — even with master propagandist Murdoch shoveling on the pixie dust.

  19. bobrafto

    Aussie Pride
    How do you know it was Abbott & the libs who dumped on Ludlum?

  20. bobrafto

    A bit off topic but I need some opinions.

    I made a comment in the Guardian in regard to a QLD LNP story on their policies.

    My comment was ‘A bunch of retards trying to win government’ and was promptly deleted.

    Was my remark offensive to retards?

    Or
    Anyone likened to an LNP poliy is offensive?

    Or have I drifted into incorrect territory?//

  21. jamesss

    bobrafto
    newspapers try to portray a sense of decorum for the letters pages. On occasion letters are edited. I find your description quite satisfactory. Although I would not have used retards, my replacement ” dumb-arses”.

  22. John Kelly

    Bobrafto, the word, “retard” when used in reference to the intellectual disabled is an acutely American saying that we should not condone or allow into our lexicon. We are better than that.

  23. Terry2

    The question is, should we leave it to the Parties to check the credentials of their candidates for election or should we pass it to the AEC who can ask any overseas born candidate to show written proof of having renounced their non-Australian citizenships before they are accepted as bona fides candidates.

    We also need to ensure that they are not getting money from the commonwealth and that they are not an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent, all prerequisites of section 44 of our Constitution.

    We really must get serious about this or change the Constitution.

  24. bobrafto

    John

    I agree and I’m better than that transgression.
    Cheers

  25. John L

    Bobrafto…..I tbink the word, along with a few others triggers an automatic delete. I’ve had the same thing happen!

  26. Kyran

    Hmmm, if a ‘week’ is a ‘long time’ in politics, we have a mathematical problem. Talcum has promised to be around for a ‘very long, long time’. If ‘week’ equals ‘long time’, let’s call that ‘X’, then talcum will be around for two more weeks. We, of course, have the variant ’very’, let’s call that ‘Y’, which means he will be around for ‘Y’ times ‘X’ (two)!
    There you go. No need to worry about the timing of the next election. If talcum is gone in the next few weeks and the successor needs a year to be ‘imbedded’, the next election will be in thirteen months. This can be achieved by another DD, the subject of which will depend on who the successor gets into bed with. Easy peasy.
    With regard to talcum’s promise of quitting if he gets rolled again, well, that’s old news. He has ‘form’. Remember 2009/2010?
    “After the leadership vote, Turnbull said he would serve out his full term as member for Wentworth. On 6 April 2010, he announced he would not seek re-election. However, on 1 May 2010 he reversed his decision, stating he had been convinced by the former Liberal Prime Minister, John Howard, to remain in parliament.”
    As for tiny and Ludlum, there are some differences worthy of noting. Sect 44 provides for a dispute to be lodged by a constituent in the member’s electorate within 40 days of an election being held. Mr Magrathea’s most recent attempt regarding tiny was thwarted, so he has reverted to petitions to require tiny produce his RN. The fact that tiny has now produced a morsel in such a climate is curious to say the least. Ludlum, however, was challenged outside that time frame and outed himself. This does not, for a second, excuse Ludlum’s oversight. The two cases are, however, demonstrably different.
    As for tiny, his legacy will be the faux title of the most successful opposition leader of all time anywhere in the known universe. Even when he is in government.
    Delicious? I wouldn’t bite that bollocks to find out. Notwithstanding his predisposition to being photographed, you really never know where he has been.
    Talcum doesn’t need to look both ways. He will require eyes in the back of his head to see the knife coming!
    Thank you Mr Kelly and commenters. Anyone else for popcorn? Take care

  27. Patricia

    Turnbull will be reluctant to call an early election, seeing that calling the last election early went so well for him.
    Based on the shambles that Newman in Queensland made by calling an election during the summer holiday period that would also be out as it would be seen to be what it is. Devious, trying to slip in an election while everyones attention is focussed elsewhere.
    Would not surprise me if he let the half senate election go a head in May 2019 and then call a HoR election towards the end of the year. He has no consideration for the cost to the taxpayer but doing this might just leave him with not alot of support in the senate, less than he has now.
    Between a rock and a hard place. Couldn’t happen to a better person.

  28. westozirwin

    The info regarding Scott was dug up by a lawyer. The lawyer was checking the citizenship status of all federal MPs with a particular focus on someone other than Scott. BTW I don’t believe Abbotts so called proof either. The form RN would certainly be available if lodged so recently (1993). Interesting that it was only as a result of Sue v Hill in 1999 that holding dual Australian/ British citizenship became a problem so why change it back in 1993?

  29. stephengb2014

    The letter is merely evidence, it is not proven evidence untill it is tested.

    Tiny is very clever, producing unproven evidence rather than a certificate, no one is going to challenge the varicity of the letter in a court, as the cost would be prohibitive to most of those interested in finding out.

    S G B

  30. Pingback: Turnbull looking both ways | THE VIEW FROM MY GARDEN

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