When your Treasurer ignores factual analysis, doesn’t believe in econometric modelling, and wants to keep deals a secret, that is a real worry
“I tell you what, if you go down the pub and you talk to small business people, they’re not talking about econometric models,” said our Treasurer Scott Morrison when asked about modelling to justify his legislated and proposed tax cuts.
He may well be right, but, personally, I would prefer our economic policy to be informed by evidence and evaluated by experts rather than the guys in the public bar.
The Coalition is going out all guns blazing this year to spruik their economic credentials and to push for further tax cuts but there are some things the guys in the pub should be made aware of.
Since the Coalition won government in September 2013, there are 8,600 more people unemployed and those that are employed are working, on average, 1.34 hours less a month.
Whilst tax cuts for small businesses may have been politically more palatable than for the top end of town, there is absolutely no evidence that it will deliver any benefit for the $24 billion loss in revenue.
Small businesses, those with fewer than 20 employees, account for about 45 per cent of the private sector workforce but generated just 5.2 per cent of the increase in job growth in the five years to June 2015, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data.
By comparison, large businesses – those with 200 or more employees – account for 32 per cent of the private sector workforce but generated 66 per cent of the increase in job growth for the same period.
Whilst that may sound like an argument to cut taxes for large corporations, the reality indicates otherwise.
The 2017 financial year saw a 21% increase in corporate profits, reaching an all-time high of 82147 AUD Million in the first quarter of 2017, whilst wage growth declined to record lows.
Scott Morrison, the man who doesn’t like modelling, also seems adverse to looking beyond headline figures. He tells us that our corporate tax rate of 30% makes us uncompetitive, completely ignoring the franking credits that shareholders receive and the generous deductions that our system allows for things like accelerated depreciation and cross-financing which actually reduced our average corporate tax rate in 2012 to 17% and, more importantly, an effective tax rate of 10.4%.
This ignoring of the facts to promote political goals does not auger well for the new but very secret TPP11.
Steve Ciobo told Radio National the deal would increase access to Japan for Australian beef producers. I thought that’s what we just did when we signed the free-trade agreement with them a couple of years ago.
Presumably, it also increases access to Japan for Canadian beef producers.
In April 2017, Farm Weekly reported that, despite having signed a free trade agreement with Korea in December 2014, volumes of Australian beef exports to Korea “reduced significantly with the US competition an increasing challenge.”
Most concerningly, the High Commission for Canada in Australia says on their website that “Australia’s overly cautionary-cum-protectionist quarantine measures can effectively limit agricultural imports.”
I sincerely hope Barnaby hasn’t insisted that we relax biosecurity though, with his cavalier attitude to climate change, water security and animal welfare, I wouldn’t put it past him.
Labor has called for independent appraisal of the proposed TPP before we formally agree but the government is refusing.
Someone who can truly assess the effect on local industry and jobs, not just talk to one or two niche exporters and industry lobbyists, needs to look at the wider consequences before we sign on the dotted line.
When your Treasurer ignores factual analysis, doesn’t believe in econometric modelling, and wants to keep deals a secret, that is a real worry.
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It is not that Scott Morrison’s economic beliefs are evidentially or logically flawed.
It is just that they seem to be entirely derived from / reliant upon mysterious and miraculous events, and are mostly communicated through ‘Glossolalia’ (aka ‘ecstatic utterances’).
Happy clapping sums.
if Morriscum walked into a pub, he would not be welcome, if fact, he probably wouldn’t make it out in one piece!
NeoCons believing their own BullSh*t!
It doesn’t really matter what the tax rate is for business, what matters is the long list of taxable deductions which in 30% of these huge multinational corporations reduces their tax burden to zero. While professional working people are slugged 49% on their earnings, unless they become a business, then the deductions are huge. The average lowly paid worker pays around 20% on their taxable income, and the idea of allowing businesses to rape and pillage the population by buying a pencil for 10 cents and selling it for a dollar was that they would pay tax on their earnings, sadly that has proven not to be the case. So in actual fact the lowly paid worker is paying the tax that his/her boss should be paying. What a sad, sad situation.
Morrison would not drink, he belongs to the Australian Branch of the USA cult, the assembly of god, Hillsong, Calvary etc.
Unless he’s at the footie
The sick and sad thing is, ScoMo was more than likely on the public payroll for the taking of that photo..
A little detective work shows the game was on Sunday afternoon, May 15, 2016.
Apparently, after the game, Scott flew to Townsville at a cost of $1,011.19 and claimed $368.00 to stay there for the night. He claimed $140.08 for a comcar on that day.
It’s a fine line between doing things that will definitely lose votes and saying things that might win some while tap dancing back and forth . . . the coming crash is going to be spectacular.
Yeah, my missive was brief and simple, thus a bit inaccurate..
SOP seems to be for pollies to get complimentary show-tickets, then claim public monies for associated for travel and accommodation (+ other occasional miscellaneous expenses).
Political business conducted in the broader electorate.
Official business…met with key stakeholders.
We never know who the stakeholders are, what the meetings were about, where they were held. They don’t have to produce receipts or reports about why they were there or what they learned/achieved.
Does sitting in the corporate box imply you are conducting business?
Barnaby Joyce, who was given free tickets to watch the 2012 State of Origin and NRL finals in corporate boxes, claimed flights to Sydney, Comcars and overnight ”travel allowance”, costing taxpayers $4615. His spokeswoman told Fairfax Media that attending the matches was legitimate ”official business”
”Mr Joyce was invited to these events due to his position as a shadow minister. Such gatherings are viewed as opportunities for business and community leaders to meet and discuss policy issues with members of Parliament.”
I find it hard to believe you could concentrate to discuss, or even hear, policy at a state of origin match or league grand final.
The Treasurer also has no moral principles.
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is attending her fourth AFL grand final in as many years at the taxpayers expense
On Saturday morning North Melbourne AFL chairman Ben Buckley joked to a packed grand final breakfast audience including Ms Bishop that she “had arranged a meeting of cabinet in the Yarra Room at the MCG regarding the North Korean crisis”.
A spokeswoman for Ms Bishop said it was appropriate for senior leaders from all parties to attend the AFL grand final in their official capacities. When politicians are in their official roles, taxpayers fund travel and other expenses.
On 17 occasions between 2009 and 2013 Ms Bishop was in the same city when the Eagles played away from home, racking up $29,000 in taxpayer funded flights.
Mr Ciobo, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Tasmanian senator David Bushy claimed publicly-funded travel entitlements to go to the 2013 AFL
Mr Ciobo, who charged taxpayers $1100 to attend, said “I was invited because I’m the Trade Minister. Ministers or parliamentary secretaries or others are invited to go along to these events specifically by businesses and organisations who are taking the opportunity to showcase themselves there, to take the time to have a conversation in relation to important matters.”
It appears they all subscribe to the “policy with free alcohol” approach. Don’t bother with facts and figures, just give me tickets, free flights and accommodation, free booze and some good sport to watch. Important matters require a certain bonhomie.
In his defense, Barnaby did submit a detailed report after his 2012 research trip to Sydney. for the state of origin..
He advised parliament that;
“Hotels in Sydney are way overpriced.
Beer served in plastic cups tastes like rancid billy-goat piss, but I’ll drink it anyway.
That ref is a c*nt with one blue eye.
I wouldn’t mind ploughing that little blonde shiela 3 rows down.”
Parliament solemnly acknowledged Barnaby’s findings.
Now I know that can’t be true. Barnaby hasn’t paid for a hotel in many years so what would he care?
I think the Coalition must know that the large % of tax they take from the less well off and the small % they take from the most well off do not fund federal spending. If they get their way and company taxes are reduced, the deficit, which according to their propaganda must be reduced and turned to surplus, will rise even further. Then ScoMO will argue that public spending must be reduced. Either that or he will try to pretend that a lowered company tax will result in an overall high tax take overall.This is more ideology than reality.
Let’s just hope that sooner or later the voters will see through the Coalition’s lies and misrepresentations.
My suggestion is to reduce company tax to 20% across the board but that tax is to be paid on gross profit before any deductions, transfer pricing, off shoring or any other rort is allowed you earn 10 million in this country you pay 2 million tax no if buts or maybes we all pay tax on our gross salary so if its good enough for us its bloody good enough for all companies and especially large tax dodging multinationals
Nope – due to markedly differing profit margins tax cannot be on gross, unless it was set to to a very low percentage <10%.
But they could do it before any transfer pricing scam.
Thank You Kaye, your research and succinct points are always worth reading.
Scott Morrison would make a pathetic figure if he were truly grilled by an expert panel of 5 experts who were allowed to question Scotty, dig deeper, show his superficial shallowness. Sort of a “REAL Q&A”.
The above article shows very simply, how misleading the employment stats are.
In his report, Mr Joyce didn’t specify exactly who those fancy hotels were going to be expensive for.
Part of the purpose of Barnaby’s public-interest research trip was to check up on exactly how much a fancy bed in the big smoke can cost, as the plain folk of Nowendoc and surrounds like to know how much city slickers will pay for a silk pillow these days.
Although Mr Joyce showed due diligence in presenting parliament with the absolute maximum available figure he could obtain (especially given that he was struggling with the difficulties of short notice during a busy time), he could, with effort, find costlier bedding, and as such, he feels obliged to continue his research (expenses forthcoming).
Ps, I reckon the good people round Bundarra also wanna know; ‘how much for a hooker?’ 😉
[Mr Ciobo, who charged taxpayers $1100 to attend, said “I was invited because I’m the Trade Minister. Ministers or parliamentary secretaries or others are invited to go along to these events specifically by businesses and organisations who are taking the opportunity to showcase themselves there, to take the time to have a conversation in relation to important matters.”]
Well shouldn’t those companies be paying for it then! …lol…like Dastyari
Not that I would want this to occur – as it would probably advance corruption even more.
Journo’s should do some spying when they attend these matches to see just how much business was discussed.
I’ve just seen an ethical use for those laser pointers – shine them not at the players but the pollies.
Hi Diane L.,
The article I posted shows neatly how much effective tax is actually being paid right now, before the unnecessary 50 billion in tax cuts.
I’ll ride with you on that one.
I’ll re-post this quote from last night: “Once a culture of corruption has taken hold, it tends to spread to every level of society. Anybody who works for the government comes to expect a bribe for every service he or she provides—a kind of “personal fee” on top of the worker’s regular salary. To justify the fee, ensure its payment, and extort additional money, the worker becomes innovative about designing difficulties for citizens who need service. The payment demanded for simply verifying someone’s ID or accepting a filled-out form may be small, so to increase his or her income, the worker makes things more difficult for the citizen.”
‘World of Three Zeroes” is the book it’s from.
I don’t have to be there to know how the discussion would go.
It is often the banks who host the pollies.
“We’ll have to have some sort of inquiry that finds us squeaky clean, has no compensation aspect, and that destroys the industry super funds. Go the blues”
Scott Morrison was the guest of bank lobbyist and former Labor premier Anna Bligh at an Adele concert.
It might be the hotel and clubs guys
“get rid of that gambling reform rubbish. Say something like poker machines pay for kids sport, or pensioners love going to the club”
You can be sure the instructions would be short and unchallenged.
Malfeasance and mal-competence do seem to be 2 areas where the ‘trickle-down theory actually seems to work.
As a bonus, the efficiency drain of all this top-middle level parasitic fluffing and disgruntled shuffling (aka work-simulation methodology) can act to encourage/ensure some desperately innovative ‘solutions’ at the very arse end of responsibility in the direct implementation of cumulatively crapulent decisions.
Of course, there’s no real difference between corruption and the opportunity for corruption because there’s no oversight.
By way of illustration, imagine being an eco-numerically competent professional working within the federal treasury department.
Your current top boss has this disconcerting habit of happy-clapping sums and dictating in tongues (whilst brandishing coal).
A bit hard to add up in straight columns whilst that shit’s going down.
The World Economic Forum 2018 in Davos https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/whos-coming-to-davos-2018/ is being called the biggest gathering of world leaders but evidently Turnbull isn’t going : why is that ?
The sight of a LNP politician on TV or their photo anywhere makes me instantly vomit. The up side of this aversion is that I have trained myself to turn off or turn away before the vomit urge engulfs me.
no matter what a LNP minister says, it is worth sweet ‘eff all’ – lies and damned lies.
Kaye Lee you are a courageous person for delving into and forensicaly analysing the tripe and bullshit these LNP bastards spread and in doing so you expose their ugliness and deciet.
We should all be grateful for your commitment to truth and facts. I know I am.
I wonder if Beetroot was invited to the wedding.
What is Morrison’s personal experience of working in or running a small business or SME, and does he regularly attend a pub versus Hillsong assemblies (Townsville blog I concur).
Morrison’s career before politcs…..
At uni, he studied economics and geography. That led to jobs in a number of industry groups, including the Property Council of Australia and what was then known as the Tourism Task Force (now the Tourism and Transport Forum). He served as the number two at the TTF before jumping ship to its main rival, Tourism Council Australia. Afterwards, the TTF changed its employment contracts to prevent others from “doing a Morrison”.
When the New Zealand government wanted to set up an Office of Tourism and Sport, Tourism Minister Murray McCully. turned to Morrison. When McCully resigned his portfolio in 1999, over a scandal involving “golden handshakes” to tourism board members who had resisted his heavy-handed interference, Morrison lost his chief political sponsor. So with a year still left on his contract, he returned to Sydney in March 2000, where he took up a position as the state director of the NSW Liberal Party.
His reward came after the 2004 federal election, when the Coalition needed a chief executive to head its newly created tourism body, Tourism Australia. In a move that reeked of political cronyism, Joe Hockey, the then tourism minister, gave Morrison the $350,000-a-year post.
Something of a bureaucratic black belt from his days in New Zealand, Morrison also fought running battles with Tourism Australia’s nine-strong board. Its members complained that he did not heed advice, withheld important research data about the controversial “Where the bloody hell are you?” campaign, was aggressive and intimidating, and ran the government agency as if it were a one-man show. But Morrison thought he had the upper hand. Confident that John Howard would ultimately back him, Morrison reportedly boasted that if Tourism Minister Fran Bailey got in his way, he would bring her down. When board members called for him to go, however, Bailey agreed, and soon it was Morrison who was on his way. “Fran despised him,” says an industry insider. “Her one big win was ousting Scott. His ego went too far.” Another senior industry figure claims that it was Morrison’s arrogance, combined with his misreading of John Howard and the power dynamics of Canberra, that proved his undoing: “He was naive to think he could take on the politicians. Howard was always going to back his ministers.” The “agreed separation” was said to have pocketed him at least a $300,000 payout.
Soon Morrison turned his attention to getting himself a seat in federal parliament, and eyed up the safe seat of Cook. Local party members initially rejected him, partly because he was considered insufficiently right wing.
Preselection at the second time of asking brought with it the prospect of a safe Liberal seat. In the 2007 election, Scott Morrison was duly elected as the member for Cook
Kaye, your fabulous post reminded me of a brilliant series Dr George Venturini wrote on Morrison a few years ago, which I have spent the day re-reading.
Peoples, do yourselves a favour and check it out:
Interestingly, from the same article, Morrison is on the record as saying “the Bible is not a policy handbook, and I get very worried when people try to treat it like one”.
Yet now he has promised to play a leading role in the debate about enshrining further “protections” for religious freedom in law.
“it all starts when you allow religious freedoms [to be eroded], mockery to be made of your faith or your religious festivals – it always starts innocently and it’s always said it is just a joke – just like most discrimination does”.
“And I’m just gonna call that out. With what I’ve seen happen in the last year, I’ve just taken the decision more recently, I’m just not going to put up with that any more, I don’t think my colleagues are either.”
Yet when it came to the Charlie Hebdo shootings……..
“COMPERE: Well, the material was designed to offend.
MORRISON: And so what. A lot of what I’ve heard here today has offended me but if you’re civilised, and I think that’s a major issue with some of the people we are talking about, if you are civilised you just get on with it. We shouldn’t have to have special rules for special people.
COMPERE: No-one is suggesting special rules just an understanding that some things are offensive.
MORRISON: So OK, we can have a bit of fun with the Pope, with Buddha, Jesus Christ on the Cross, The Dalai Lama, The Queen, Barack Obama. Want to add to the list? But not anything or anyone associated with Muslims. They’re special apparently. And that’s where all this free speech talk I’m hearing falls to bits. If you defend free speech then you defend offensive speech as well. It’s real easy to stand up for the nice stuff but sometime it gets ugly and if you are fair dinkum, as we say in Australia, you stand for all.”
Morrison is just one big contradiction.
based on Treasury’s own figures, the Grattan Institute estimates Australians will have to wait around 25 years for an increased income of just 0.6 per cent as a result of the tax cuts.
Meanwhile, as foreign-owned companies enjoy immediate tax benefits, Australia’s superannuants and retirees would see five percentage points shaved off their franking credits, and the government would have a multibillion-dollar hole in the budget to fill.
Notice that Morrison is never caught on TV in the company of any advisor. (They all have them.) Clear that he wants to be seen as his own man. Read his Media Releases.
And notice – No contact name. Very, very unusual. Google: name of media advisor to Scott Morrison and again you will shoot blanks.
Silly me – Scott does it all himself. LOL.
He’s a one man band . He can do everything. Leap tall buildings etc .. Strange!
Re At uni, he studied economics and geography Yet his own published profile claims he has a •BSc(Hons)(NSW)*.
Not sure of the validity of either claim. But it matters not because there is little evidence his supposed academic studies had any lasting effect (no affect as well.)
I suspect that Morrison’s reached his political peak and is now in Dutton’s shadow.
Pope Francis on Wednesday condemned fake news as satanic, saying journalists and social media users should shun and unmask manipulative “snake tactics” that foment division to serve political and economic interests.
“Spreading fake news can serve to advance specific goals, influence political decisions, and serve economic interests,” the pope wrote, condemning the “manipulative use of social networks” and other forms of communication.
”This false but believable news is ‘captious’, inasmuch as it grasps people’s attention by appealing to stereotypes and common social prejudices and exploiting instantaneous emotions like anxiety, contempt, anger and frustration,” Francis said.
He called for “education for truth” that would help people discern, evaluate and understand news in order to recognize the “sly and dangerous form of seduction that worms its way into the heart with false and alluring arguments”.
They’re going to have to put a whole new wing in purgatory to accommodate politicians
And right on cue……
Scott Morrison, said Labor was stalling, and modelling was not needed to prove “economic common sense”.
“Labor would think you’d need economic modelling to decide whether you put your pants on one leg at a time,” he told Sky News on Thursday.
Economists estimate that the TPP may, at best, boost Australia’s economy by just 0.04% per year – less than all the other countries involved.
Free trade agreements are slightly more complex than putting your pants on Scott.
I prefer to check my boots for funnel-webs before I put my feet into them.
Terry2, maybe Turnbull is afraid he’ll go unnoticed amongst all the great world leaders ( Macron, Memel, Trudeau etc.) and prefers to shine on smaller gatherings like the ABC’s Australian of the Year Awards…?
It’s easier to be the biggest fish in a small pond…
Perhaps Malcolm Turnbull isn’t flying to Davos because he feels that the deputy PM would better represent ‘straya..
We sent Cormann and Ciobo to Davos.
That photo presses the case for random breath tests in parliament and for stopping serving alcohol during working hours.
As a straya day present I offer you a rare and resfreshing spectacle, a coalition politician showing decency in principle by articulating a sound policy proposal through reasonable language
Llew O’Brien, Nationals HoR MP for the electorate of Wide Bay, supports alcohol and drug testing of federal parliamentarians.
Typical LNP insipid propaganda…equating eveything with ‘Australianess’ and the pub. They drink a beer to look ‘Australian’ but probably hate the stuff. Most Australians cant afford the pub theses days and any way small business owners are petite bourgsoise and prefer wine bars and cafes to the pub. However, its doesn’t quite have the same aussie ring to it saying the ‘small business owner at the local wine bar doesn’t need eco modeling’. Like Abbott equating a morning cup of take away coffee with ‘Australianess’ in a feeble attempt to characterise the Lindtt cafe attack in Sydney as an attack on Australian culture and therefore an act of terrorism. ‘There is nothing more Australian than stopping off at the local cafe on the way to work to pick up a cup of coffee’ or something to that affect said the mad monk.. As if take away coffee is somehow unique to Australia. The last refuge of the tyrant is nationalism. I hate these perverted fckn morose conts! Best thing for them is the gallows.
I think the wonderful term which I just recently learned right here on theaimn – gaslighting pretty much applies to virtually everything Morrison says, though I think there is a strong element of fabulism in his thought patterns as the man is capable of deceiving himself to the point of ardent belief – believing something strongly enough till it becomes true
He’s basically really F&$#ing dangerous
“I tell you what, if you go down the pub and you talk to small business people, they’re not talking about econometric models,”
Presuming ‘small business people’ is not a height reference, there weren’t many in the bar the last time I was there. Not that they would be wearing signs. It was a while ago, but the discussion didn’t really get to discussing corporate governance, behaviour and activity.
Oops, banks got a mention, but not in a pleasant way. Credit cards, mortgages, loans and those fees that keep appearing and multiplying. Now that I think about it, one fellow mentioned his insurance premiums went up but the cover was reduced. A few people outside the private health insurance ‘system’ mentioned how ‘out of pockets’ seemed to be going up and Medicare didn’t perform as well as it used to.
Several mentioned how their kids couldn’t find work and the dealings with Centrelink and Job Network was thoroughly demoralizing. Oh, and education got a bit of a run. Organising pre-school working bee’s to repair and maintain buildings, finding money for books, that sort of thing.
Yeah, lots of economics were discussed. Not so much business. Other than the desire for everyone to enter politics as we were so envious of that life of privilege and unaccountability.
Indeed Ms Lee, “They’re going to have to put a whole new wing in purgatory to accommodate politicians.” Thankfully, this guy in Victoria will build a whole heap of prisons if he gets a chance. He’s calling it affordable housing, so it must be for politicians.
As for Morrison – “Yet now he has promised to play a leading role in the debate about enshrining further “protections” for religious freedom in law.
“it all starts when you allow religious freedoms [to be eroded], mockery to be made of your faith or your religious festivals – it always starts innocently and it’s always said it is just a joke – just like most discrimination does”.”
Wonder if this is the sort of free religious expression he is talking about;
“Grace said she and other staff were particularly fearful in the lead up to Lent, the annual 40-day period of Christian observance preceding Easter. Each year the number of protesters increased during Lent, Kelly said, and she said those protesters were more confrontational. Up to a dozen protesters attended the clinic each day during the Lent period, she said.”
“The ACT, Tasmania, Victoria and the Northern Territory are the only places with exclusion zones in place that make it illegal for protesters to stand outside of or near to women’s health services. The distance protesters must be from clinics varies according to jurisdiction.”
“Staff and patients are being verbally and physically abused, spat on and told they are going to hell,” she said. “We’ve noticed the protests increase substantially before Lent and it’s more orchestrated and organised now around that time. The protesters have become quite bold and the message I want to get across is that we desperately need safe access zones to protect patients and staff.”
And the pope “…..called for “education for truth” that would help people discern, evaluate and understand news in order to recognize the “sly and dangerous form of seduction that worms its way into the heart with false and alluring arguments”.
Onward Christian Soldiers. Bugger. Forgot how the rest of that song went. At least corvus boreus has done his bit for family planning. That picture should be shown to any future potential breeders.
Thank you Ms Lee and commenters. Take care
Ah, the political divide of sedative vs stimulant, beer vs coffee, barman or barista?
Tony Abbott stood with lattes, flats and frothaccinos as the drink best symbolizing Australia because some psychotic dipshit had committed violent acts and murder within the confines of a cafe, and Tony thought he could exploit the opportunity..
Had the ‘Lindt Cafe seige’ taken place in a pub, Tony would have ostentatiously sculled a schooner in defense of ‘strayan values.
I think that politicians do pitch more predominantly towards the pub than the cafe, and I suspect that may be because it is easier to convince people to believe and do dumb shit when they are drunk.
Armed forces have traditionally utilized ethanol as a means of recruitment.
Living wage to every Australian…..inheretence over 1mil to treated as income
It’s easy to arrange your affairs and avoid tax ….become resedent of tax Haven ….bingo no tax to au