Ok, I’m sure that somewhere on social media someone will point out the hypocrisy of the title… I frequently have people telling me that I’m wrong or an idiot based on the title of my piece and, while I may in fact be both wrong and an idiot, the point is I can tell that they haven’t read more than the title by the fact that everything in the article agrees with their world view and it’s only the title that’s misleading.
And yes, I know, if I didn’t want people to react to the title, why didn’t I choose a less ironic title? The simple reason is that more people read it when they expect to be outraged than when they expect to agree with every word. For example, my best ever blog was “SOME OF US OWE SCOTT MORRISON A BIG APOLOGY” had thousands of times more views than the one titled: “MORRISON IS A COCKSUCKER!” However that may have been because the word “cocksucker” was actually banned by various social media outlets… I don’t know why. Some of my best friends are cocksuckers and I’ve never held it against them…
Perhaps I should rephrase that!
Anyway, I just thought – as a Christmas present – I’d throw out a small sprig of hope for all those non-Murdoch hypnotised people who are hoping that one day we’ll actually elect a government who has an agenda for improving the world as opposed to just winning the next election. (Yes, Joel Fitzgibbon and friends, I’m including you in that!)
So while various media outlets are telling us that Scott Morrison has the next seven elections in the bag, I’d just like to remind you of the simple fact that 2020 has been full of surprises. Ok, I started the year with shingles and I remember thinking that things wouldn’t get much worse…
Yes, the future is unpredictable. No matter how many times the universe shows us this, we seem completely incapable of learning it. I have suggested that the problem is that ninety percent of things are predictable so we start to presume that everything is and what we don’t realise that not only is that ten percent going to happen from time to time but we don’t actually know which ten percent will be the unpredictable bit..
In terms of elections, I remember after Maggie Thatcher was dumped, John Major – in a shock result – won the next election.
However, I don’t want to go all the way back to last century but without doing major research into votes this century, I’d like to remind you that John Howard was heading for a big defeat when the Tampa sailed in. Kim Beasley decided not to rock the boat (symbolically and literally) and spent the next few months going along with anything Howard said. Then the terrorist attack on the World Trades Centre (or the USA attack it you want a good conspiracy theory) pretty much sealed the election for Howard. Yes, he was a masterful politician who then won another election before losing his seat in 2007.
Let’s just look at recent events and look at the predictable nature of politics:
- Abbott is elected Liberal leader because his party hated Turnbull and all the good candidates didn’t want to take on Rudd who was sure to win the next election.
- Kevin Rudd gets dumped by his own party.
- Abbott nearly wins.
- Obama is predicted to lose in 2012. He wins.
- Abbott wins the 2013 election. He is dumped before the next election.
- The British vote for Brexit much to the surprise of David Cameron who says that he didn’t expect that and he’s not going to stick around.
- Bill Shorten nearly wins the 2016 election prompting an election night dummy spit from Turnbull.
- Pauline Hanson shows everyone that both zombies and vampires are real by winning Senate seats at the 2016 election.
- Donald Trump gets elected POTUS.
- Jeremy Corbyn goes closer than anyone expected in the British election.
- In spite of everything he’s done, Clive Palmer thinks that nobody will remember and launches a series of ads and tells his party members that they’ll probably win the election. Some people actually believe him.
- Bill Shorten is so certain to be elected that one of the betting companies pays out on the result the day before the election.
- Trump becomes so irrational that even some Fox News commentators can’t support him.
Ok, this is not an extensive list. And yes, Scotty The Marketer may win the next ten elections. The world is unpredictable.
All we can do is go forward in hope that we’ll be equal to the forces that try to tell us that there’s no point in trying because the future is certain.
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The point is, Rossleigh, not to try and win the election but to try and fundamentally change the party. I was in it for over 20 years and stood as a (State) candidate for two. I’ve never seen it so moribund, so uninspiring so dispiriting in fact, in my life!
I, in my unlove for religion, blame this phenomenon on all this religiosity in the party, especially from Kim B onward. Even Julia confessed that she wouldn’t vote for gay marriage rights because her mum was a conservative christian…
They’re all being to nice to the fascist thugs in the LNP, who, in the main are also religious and anti-progressive.
The party is paralysed because they’re chasing religious dogma instead social morality.
Polytongued or otherwise.
If “we” need to do anything, we need to rewire their heads and give them the brawn to stand up against the manners of the pew and the rhetoric of the pulpit and get them to do something about substantial issues, inside and outside the country. Get them to show that this country is run by its own people and by its own mind and heart, fully engaged.
Clarity is always good. People often see what they expect and misunderstand what you are trying to say. I think Hersh here gets it when he said ‘Obama is worse than Bush ‘ and I’ve said myself here that, on some issues at least, Biden will be worse than Trump. And I know that you know many wont get it. But there you go.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/media-blog/2013/sep/27/seymour-hersh-obama-nsa-american-media?fbclid=IwAR1nQrRtXU8m6KgiB5zpTYew5F_HqL6hvKGwy0LOvReIT2RjSJBeIDpBOwE
Australia has always been perceived from the outside as white, nativist and conservative.
We have culturally specific MPs (and advisors) in all parties, and media types too, who interact with each other in their own confected world. The latter includes all the political PR and media techniques in endeavouring to lobby/influence MPs and/or inflame the electorate on non or sociocultural issues e.g. immigration, religion, LGBT rights, etc. to preclude more serious policy actions on e.g. the environment (via Koch linked think tanks, astro turfing, model bills, NewsCorp media and corporate donors).
Fact is most of Labour, the Greens, Nationals and Liberal Parties are very culturally similar pale, ageing, mostly male and socially conservative (till demographic change does its work), isolated from both electorates and society. If not manipulated, at least needing to compromise by the policy boundaries or limits set by consolidated conservative media, commentariat, think tank PR etc.; manufacturing or engineering consent.
Across the board, not only have they all fallen for the niche white nativist ‘population growth’-‘immigration’ equals environmental issues dog whistle, it is also an admission that Australia cannot implement environmental measures or many other good policy measures e.g. stopping dirty fuel like diesel and RON92?
Worse, Bob Brown, an admirer of Menzies, had in his twenties, contemplated joining the Liberal Party, later siding with Abbott to kill Rudd’s emissions scheme (for supposedly not going far enough), still now banging on about ‘population growth’ as an environmental issue (when it is misrepresented, ignores credible research and NOM has fallen off a cliff)); great victory for fossil fuels, libertarian think tanks, corporate sector and maintaining the status quo.
ah yes andrew correct Bob is a cocksucker and I dont just mean his bed side manner, ha
Yes, rossleigh, there is no point in waiting till it is time because god is a gun toting, flatearth conservative and generates miracles via his sky pilot, rupert.
So labor has to go underground, where god isn’t, and hammer out a few weapons.
ps
george to my memory gillard was unmarried and opposed marriage so, in conscience, she could not vote for marriage without being a hypocrite? I thought she was right but I am a confirmed idiot who believes in honesty.
What picture did you have at the top of the article which suggests that Australia’s prime minister is able to give a good tonsil polish to fellow(s) members ? It’s not just the headline, it’s the accompanying graphic that sells the story.
I mean, a full camera shot would explain the expressions on all of the four faces above.
Wam, wam, wam! You’re excusing her for not being a hypocrite and then you show her hypocrisy! Is she or is she not a servant of the country? Its public, its mental and physical welfare? Is she not a hypocrite for swearing an oath (are they worth anything any more?) to serve this country, only to serve her own psycho needs?
Once a PM you are only a PM, not a self indulgent, entitled one. Your beliefs must be balanced against the beliefs of those you’ve sworn to serve.
“Sorry Mr Cake maker but I won’t sell this wedding cake to this gay couple.”
no george, it was a conscience vote, making gillatd, no different than you or me on the topic.
She was voting against MARRIAGE not against gays. 40% of the country did vote against gays.,
A bit like the “sacred” books: a matter of interpretation. Not giving gays the full rights enjoyed by the rest of the community is voting against gays.
Conscience vote? Whence does that come and why, when it comes to such human rights?
I was disgusted by the fact that I was given the right to decide who marries whom in this country? Why would I have such a right?
Why would Mz Gillard?
But she did say in no muffled sounds that she wouldn’t give the gays that right because of her mum’s religious proclivities. Nauseating stuff. Very… Morriscumian, if I may coin a phrase.
As he’s a mini-Trump, I like to call Morrison “Scump”.