Wednesday 1 May 2019
Monday 29 April 2019
1 “The Australian” published its latest polling results 51/49 to Labor. To gain a better understanding of what the results mean you would be well advised to read the analysis of William Bowe at the Poll Bludger.
His most important words are his very last.
“The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes in the current environment unavoidably involves an uncomfortable degree of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has had almost no effect on it.”
What William Bowe is saying is that individual polls mean little. It is only when you marry them all together over a period of time that they do.
With just 18 days to go, I refuse to believe Newspoll.
How do I justify that conclusion? Well, I do so by applying bucketfuls of faith in the Australian people.
I believe that a majority of people are sick to death of the putrid governance they have had to endure over the past six years.
I believe that the majority of Australians are fed up with all the arguments about climate change and want something done about it. The extraordinary first day turns out for pre-poll voting would suggest that this is the case.
I believe that Australians will put better health, better schools and better-aged care before their hip pocket. Including help for those with cancer.
I believe the same goes for Childcare and dental services.
“One of the oddities of political polling is trying to understand how 49% of the voting public would willingly return a party that has governed so abysmally.” (John Lord)
Am I to believe that the Australian people don’t give a stuff about how the Coalition interfaces with each other, and that they can change leaders at will.
Am I to believe that 49% of voters couldn’t care less if the Liberal and National parties don’t have an energy or environmental policy.
Am I to believe that these same voters believe the Liberal lie that they are the better money managers? Take a look at the stats in No 2. Three times this morning I heard Simon Birmingham in an interview on News24 say “we will be able to pay back Labors debt.”
I find it impossible to imagine that the Australian people would be so gullible as to elect for a third term a government that has performed so miserably in the first two.
Most of what is happening in the body politics, seems to laconically pass by the general populace. Truth is no longer fashionable and in politics, conservatives have overwhelmingly legitimised lying as a genuine political election contrivance.
It’s as though we have reached the point in politics where truth is something that politicians have persuaded us to believe alternative facts rather than truth based on factual evidence, arguments and assertions.
2 Government debt: was $534 billion last Friday compared with $501 billion in June 2017, $420 billion in June 2016, $369 billion in June 2015, $319 billion in June 2014 and $273 billion at the 2013 election. And the government is promising huge tax cuts.
3 Mark Butler and other tweets
Angus Taylor won’t do any interviews and he won’t debate me in public. All he’s got are tired, old, baseless scare campaigns from Tony Abbott’s playbook. Australians are sick of it; they want real action on climate change.
Just a thought watching an excellent @InsidersABC. How come after 6 years of a government of better economic managers we have a weakening economy with the RBA tipped to go lower than Joe Hockey’s economic emergency interest rates?
Fantastic policy announcement extending free dental care for pensioners and seniors. Labor created and built Medicare. Liberals underfunds and cuts it #ausvotes
Now let’s see how this goes; A massive boost to childcare & dental care for seniors, both fully funded versus a cap on refugee intake and claims of being “back in the black” I think I know which is more important.
Tuesday 30 April 2019
4 It’s a strange world. One Nation loonies go to the US to solicit funds to water down our gun laws and the redhead thinks it’s acceptable but visiting a strip club isn’t. Yes, it’s a strange old world.
5 More tweets overnight.
Making the point of fairness. Fixing unfairness in our system.
Hey @CliveFPalmer – how about an interview on #abc730 tonight? Surely the Australian people deserve a chance to hear you on prime time television answering some questions about your track record and your election promises.
After watching the leaders’ debate I would advise @ScottMorrisonMP not to do any more.
Dr Karen Bagley/Phelps
Both of my kids were glued to the #leaders debate with great interest.
9 year olds sum it up: ‘so that one cares about hospitals 🏥, schools 🏫 and climate change 🌳 and that one cares about money 💰’. #ausvotes
Imagine being so stuck in the past you think childcare is communism smh.com.au/national/turnb… via @smh
#leaders debate either Morrison doesn’t understand franking credits or he’s happy to lie to the nation. No prize for guessing which one.
6 The Essential Poll comes up with the same result and the same problems in distributing preferences.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has followed Newspoll in recording the Labor lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 – and also in doing so from primary votes that you would think more likely to convert to 52-48. Labor are actually up two points from an unusually weak result last time, from 35% to 37%, while the Coalition are up a single point to 39%. The explanation for Labor’s two-party decline must lie in the two-point drop for the Greens, from 11% to 9%, and the attendant weakening in their flow of preferences. One Nation are up a point to 6%; no response option has been added for the United Australia Party, and there is nothing to suggest their ascent in the combined “others” tally, which is down a point to 9%.
7 Now about the debate. For me, it was much to do about nothing. It was enlightening to the point that it gave the two protagonists the opportunity to further clarify what we already know. For the Prime Minister, it was about two things: A) Bill Shorten and B) economics. For the Opposition leader Bill Shorten it was all about: A) Policies, B) How they affect people and C) a resulting fairness.
Morrison spoke with his usual overbearing bully talk that borders on arrogance whereby Shorten was with a much more personable persona.
25 audience members declared Mr Shorten the winner; only 12 voted for Mr Morrison and another 11 were undecided.
For me, it was a bland affair that didn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know.
For those who don’t follow politics, it may have managed to spell out the differences the voter faces although in saying that I think the first thing the voter should ask him/herself is: “Based on the government’s performance over its past two terms, does it deserve another?”
Then you can examine their policies. Good luck with that.
The debate ranked 29 in its time slot meaning very few people watched it. It could also mean that people have made up their minds and tuned out.
8 I was looking through some old stuff and found this from 2016.
An ABC Fact check: Did abolishing negative gearing push up rents?
The claim: Treasurer Joe Hockey says abolishing negative gearing could push up rents, because that’s what happened in the 1980s.
The verdict: During the period negative gearing was abolished rents notably increased only in Sydney and Perth. Other factors, including high interest rates and the share market boom, were also contributors to rent increases at the time.
Mr Hockey’s claim doesn’t stack up.
In the same period Liberal Member for Bennelong John Alexander who headed the Housing Affordability enquiry said:
“Some have said we are on track to becoming a kingdom where the Lords own all the land and the biggest Lord will be King and the enslaved serf tenant is paying rent to the Lord to become wealthier.”
It might sound a bit dramatic but it’s not far from the truth.
Greg Jericho writing for the Guardian:
“Negative gearing: a legal tax rort for rich investors that reduces housing affordability.”
Peter Van Onselen writing for The Australian says that six Coalition members, including the PM, own 99 investment properties between them. (Link unavailable).
My thought for the day
“It’s difficult to imagine how a person of such little character is again a force in Australian politics. No matter how small it is powerful. That a party founded by Menzies would be doing deals with a person of such ill repute and ratbaggery is incomprehensible.” (John Lord)
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