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Day to Day Politics: Back to the polls. What else is there?

Wednesday 14 February, 2018

1 A week ago Newspoll had journalists standing on their heads blowing their collective socks off with a poll that had the Coalition within 4 points of catching up with Labor. Why, everyone was asking. They have started the year just as badly just as badly as the left of the last.

And why am I writing about Barnaby Joyce yet again? Well, the answer is simple. I want to see if our library of pictures of him run out. No, the truth is that his hypocrisy now matches that of Turnbull’s.

This week we have Essential repeating its now fortnightly poll, with Labor 8 points ahead of the Coalition. Because it is a rolling poll (half stay in and half go out) it has more than likely caught up with the Barnaby Joyce affair.

Now it will be interesting to see if Barnaby’s mischief has the same effect next Monday and with three to go for Judgement Day on the Prime Minister just what words of disdain the Abbott might have for Turnbull.

Another thing to remember with Essential is that respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election. So it only picks up the fairdinkum voters at this stage of the cycle.

The Essential Report also has some interesting questions on the following subjects:

Federal voting intention
Malcolm Turnbull
Bill Shorten
Preferred Prime Minister
Economic statements
Company tax cut
Company tax cuts and wages
Statements about Adani coal mine

Now if you are more interested in some definitive analysis on polling you could take a peek at the William Bowe Poll Bludger blog.

Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, as respondents reject the government’s stance on company tax cuts.

No change this week on Essential Research’s two-party preferred result, which shows Labor maintaining a two-party lead of 54-46, although as usual we’ll have to wait until later today for primary votes.

The pollster’s monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull with 39% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (down three), while Bill Shorten is on 33% approval (also up one) and 46% disapproval (also down three), and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-47, down from 42-25 last time. As related by The Guardian, the poll finds 72% supporting company tax cuts being made conditional on pay rises; more disagreeing than agreeing that company tax cuts would lead to higher wages without prompting; most disagreeing that penalty rate cuts would encourage companies to hire more workers.
A series of questions on the proposed Adani coal mine found 48% saying it should be assessed on its economic and environmental merits, 22% saying coal mining in the Galilee basin should be banned, and 13% saying all mines should go ahead subject to environmental approvals.

2 Now it’s time to give some space to a thespian friend, Bruce Beamish. Bruce has written a critique of Monday’s Q&A.

“I watched last nights Q&A episode. It may have been perhaps better in the terms of a good flowing show if the two people on the left were not there. Tended to hog the conversation. I would have like to heard more from John Hewson.

He seems to talk with a better approach these days than when he was in Politics. Does not seem to be a big fan of short-term thinking in Politics, I can agree with him there. Nor tax cuts to the big end of town (his words).

I wished he could have got a word in on trickle down economics, that would have really got a shot into his old party.

It is difficult for them to argue with John as he is a well qualified and respected Economist. The other panelists were Terri Butler of the ALP who got little air time but was composed, considered and concise in her answers.

Liberal Senator, Linda Reynolds was left to carry the LNP can.

She tried to make a fist of it but couldn’t really, no surprise it is a bucket of shit. Then she got into politician mode and rambled on Party lines. Her other unsalable points were on the Bi- partisan committee she chairs looking at the dual citizenship issue. We got the blurb on how outdated it is and how there is no wriggle room to change it without a referendum – surprise!

How difficult it is.

Her big sales point was that if we the public wanted to enter Politics we would face the same hurdles. Again no great surprise. She then made various attempts to illicit public support for a referendum based on the premise that it would be hard for the public to get into the game as they would face the same hurdles.

Another revelation was that serving members of the Defence Force, Police service, Teachers and Nurses could be excluded from nominating and being elected. It was not stated but I presume it was because these professions could be seen a offices for profit under the Crown.

If this is the best this committee can do, they are wasting their time. When a Government can decide in a heartbeat that the work of the Uluru convention and the Uluru Statement and proposals arising from it can be dismissed because it would have no hope of getting up in a referendum.

They can however convene a Parliamentary committee to see if they can come up with a question to put to the people at a referendum ( the only way to change the Constitution) to get around the dual citizenship issue.

Do they think the public are going to be swayed by the wishy washy arguments so far to support such a notion? Do they think we are that stupid that we cannot see it is Politicians trying to save their own skins yet again? It beggars belief that so many of them ignored the rules before nominating regarding citizenship. If new entrants into the political world fall foul of the Constitution after all this they should not be there, they have disqualified themselves at the first hurdle.

To waste money on a Referendum on this question is ridiculous and shows how out of touch they really are in my opinion. We had the silly non binding plebiscite waste of money,that was bad enough. I reckon this issue will have no chance of getting up, how about putting up the question of Aboriginal recognition to the people, despite Mr Turnbull pouring cold water on the idea , I believe it would succeed.”

My thought for the day

“Never be afraid to step over the shadow of your negativity.”

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  1. Terry2

    The Treasurer is desperate to get tax cuts through for large corporations :

    These ATO statistics on tax paid by major corporations are sobering and you have to wonder what is going

  2. Wam

    Negativity is a beacon for the media and is a tool for the electoral success of the lnp and di’s boys.

    Wonder how barnaby was exempt during the election? Remember the ad against windsor? Two women chatting …..till he ran off with julia….she sends a text…not this time tony and with beaming smile she shares it with her supporting friend….
    In the present context it was a disgusting ad.
    When barnaby claimed a canberra allowance for double the sitting days(my clp boy was a close second) the negative thoughts run rampant(oops??)
    Flew to Adelaide and had to take the Australian with the boys and a token featured in the front page beaming the trickle from tax cuts. Oops like little irish hasn’t paid corporate tax (his share gifts would be franked so maybe no personal income tax either??) for 10 years.

    ps just be positive and trust trumble and the xbench to write a new constitution and scrap the old document that the pommie parliament passed in 1900???

  3. Terry2

    Vikki will no doubt be absolutely opposed to Barnaby being removed or resigning, understandably from her point of view, she saw herself as a future Deputy PM’s partner with all the glamour and standing that position brings, she won’t be too impressed with being a back-benchers moll, holed up in an apartment in Tamworth.

    Should have gone to specsavers, Vikki !

  4. MikeW

    My question to Treasurer is: How do you give tax breaks to companies, that pay zero or very little tax?

  5. Ricardo29

    Terry2,using advertising punchlines I like yours but maybe “that went well Frank” when considering Bananaby’s two apologies

  6. Keith

    Barnaby might have won his last poll; it seems that fiction has met up with reality:

  7. Terry2

    The coalition’s media advisers/managers have gone into top gear and are busy texting and lighting up social media with unattributed comments like “the best retail politician we have”, “needs another chance”, ” has done so much for country people”, “needs public sympathy at this difficult time” ,” was re-elected in December with a massive majority in New England”.

    We will now see just how good these media manipulators are.

    They will probably save Barney.

  8. paul walter

    Perhaps it’s just time to admit to the rhino in the room- that much of electorate are ignorant or complicit scum.

    But we have to surmise Australian politics, in common with politics in most formerly advanced democracies, has been eroded to rupture by capitalist globalisation- the power relations are now different to those of a generation ago, at the expense of individuals and communities in favour of tycoons and corporations.

    The ALP has been gelded and the public despises the fat house cat, even to the extent of not disposing of the rabid dog(s) of the Right.

  9. Kronomex

    Of course no lobbyist has been suspended, Trembles and cronies aren’t going to upset their donators and corporate mates/masters.

    Anyone else get the feeling that this will go all in favour of the churches?

  10. guest

    Bruce Beamish

    “to illicit public support”? You mean “elicit”; “illicit” means ‘illegal’.

    I agree with your comment about wanting to hear more from John Hewson. What he had to say about Coalition three word mantras such as “Jobs and Growth” was a dagger to the heart of Coalition policy. And his prediction that present economic problems are only the beginning was a subtle but ominous wake up call. It would have been interesting to hear any further elaboration.

    All the two Coalition advocates on the panel could do was to stare into space as Hewson spoke. No doubt Chris Kenny was wondering how he could counter Hewson’s opinions – or he was trying to ignore them altogether.

    All the WA Coalition member could do was to recite the Coalition mantras and Right-wing political handbook. No wonder she was attacked enthusiastically (sometimes rudely) by the Left-winger on the far left of the panel.The Coalition stance is very vulnerable, as Hewson showed in a calm and measured manner.

    The Coalition deserves to be pilloried in public in a loud and raucous manner or with calm and measured tones because they are pitiful . The media which supports them is equally pitiful, firing off in all directions at anyone who disagrees.

    Take for example Nick Cater’s attack on immigrants and leftish supporters. He says we are encouraging low grade immigrants who cannot live on their own wits but depend on welfare. He says 58% of refugees who came here in the last 10 years are unemployed. He neglects to say there are 700,000 people looking for work in Oz. Cater himself is an immigrant who leads the Menzies Research Centre and receives a large subsidy from public funds. Fake news is alive and sick in Oz.

  11. Keith

    Dr Hewson provided great information on Q&A, hopefully he will be a panelist again in the near future.

    I watched today’s Press Club today; a speech delivered by Professor Emma Johnson about science, technology, engineering and maths (stem).
    Politicians really need to think about the medium/ long term rather than parliamentary terms. They also need to think about maths and science being promoted in schools; and then, Universities. The costs of degrees are getting out of hand; the future of Australia in the longer term relies on research and development which require stem expertise. Currently, the amount of resource being pushed into research and development is dwindling; as is, the number of graduates. HECs fees are a real disincentive for students to go into a stem related vocation.

  12. Glenn Barry

    I loved Van Badham on Q&A, specifically the spray she served up to Barnaby. I would have loved it she’d given Chris Kenny a backhander – he’s just a revolting little toad that one – unfortunately I get a feeling I can look forward to seeing him on Insiders.

    Senator Linda Reynolds, well she is just trite, nothing more and I am going to be livid if they try and hold a referendum on section 44 given Turnbull’s dismissal of the Uluru statement. Turnbull is realistically just a greedy, selfish imperialist pig in all of his thoughts and deeds

  13. Chris

    “The footage shows one officer drop a knee into Mr Begic’s shoulder as he lay on the concrete floor, and then the chef was punched to the head twice.

    The CCTV then shows officers placing Mr Begic into the back of a police wagon where he is punched four more times in the head.

    The senior officer on duty the night of the bashing was Senior Sergeant David Joachim, and the footage shows him washing Mr Begic’s blood from the floor of the car park after the incident.”

    “I’d take a job [in the police force] but the only one would be the commissioner’s job.”

    It doesn’t sound like he believes there are any good cops.

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