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And they thought they had problems before

Not only does Turnbull face the prospect of a minority government, the Senate looks like being quite a handful.

On Insiders this morning Barry Cassidy showed the likely make-up of the Senate based on an insider whose opinion Cassidy said should be respected.

LNP 30

ALP 27

Greens 9

NXT 3

Hanson 2

Hinch 1

LDP 1

Lambie 1

Fred Nile 1

Other 1 (probably to go to one of the above, possibly Lambie)

Good luck with managing that lot. If Labor and the Greens collaborate, the LNP will need 9 of the 10 crossbenchers to agree to pass legislation – Labor/Greens would only need 3 to block.

 

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50 comments

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  1. Michael Taylor

    Turnbull has already phoned Cathy McGowan, saying he’s confident he can form a majority government.

    For a man who before the election said he would not negotiate, he’s certainly changed his tune now that his arse is on the line.

  2. David Stephens

    More likely Coalition plus Greens = 39 and the rest won’t matter?

  3. Kaye Lee

    He may well get the 76 he needs, maybe even one or two more. But he loses one to be Speaker. And even if he gets legislation through the lower house, the Senate will be harder. People like Leyjonhelm and Fred Nile have, in the past, very openly sold their vote in return for some entirely unrelated legislation they want. If you thought the wind commissioner was weird, just wait for what this lot will demand. Hanson has already done her “halal? no way!” routine.

  4. Neil of Sydney

    For a man who before the election said he would not negotiate, he’s certainly changed his tune now that his arse is on the line.

    That is human nature.

    For the first time in my life i did not follow the Liberal how to vote card. I put my local Liberal member No 3 because this person was one of the 53. And for the first time i voted below the line for the Senate. I voted for 12 Conservative politicians. No one from Labor or Greens made my 12 because these people only destroy the country

  5. longwhitekid

    Shouldn’t you be in The Church of Dumbfluckery this morning Neil? That’s where you usually are on Sundays instead of trolling AIM.

  6. David1

    As counting continues I would rather be Bill Shorten than the Fizza Turnbull today. The Electoral Commission still showing Labor leading 72 to the LNP 66. The breakdown in the close contests favours Labor but who knows?
    Can check it here http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

  7. Kaye Lee

    Be kind to Neil. He is searching for relevance.

  8. Möbius Ecko

    Migs Turnbull has also contacted Wilkie. Wilkie said there was nothing constructive in the discussion, it was more about Turnbull keeping the communications line open.

    Seems Turnbull and the Liberals are still determined to destroy Australia to hand its carcass to the wealthy to scavenge.

  9. David1

    NOS do us a favour and just FO You have hogged AIM for days with your crap and I am loathe to not read AIM posts but there are limits!!!!

  10. Kate M

    It’s disappointing that so far there aren’t any progressive Senators in the cross-benchers. Xenophon’s crew are at least centre – and Lambie can go either way depending on the issue. But the balance are definitely conservative.

    That said – those numbers are purely on first preferences, so it will be interesting to see how many people took the time to preference and where those preferences went.

  11. Kaye Lee

    If Cassidy’s source turns out to be right, Labor+Greens+Xenephon control the Senate and might even be close to controlling the HoR? If I was Shorten, that’s who I would be talking to today.

  12. bobrafto

    longwhitekid
    July 3, 2016 at 12:42 pm
    Shouldn’t you be in The Church of Dumbfluckery this morning Neil? That’s where you usually are on Sundays instead of trolling AIM.

    Can someone insert a ‘like’ button.

  13. Kaye Lee

    I am just wondering where abouts in Sydney Neil found a Nationals candidate to vote for.

    “It would seem that we are almost certainly heading for a hung parliament. Liberal party insiders have been texting reporters saying on current numbers they cannot see a way for the LNP to form a government in their own right. On the ABC insiders this morning Barry Cassidy pointed out that on the final numbers provided last night, that it may end up as the ALP on 73 and the LNP on 72. Counting restarts Tuesday.”

  14. Freethinker

    With whom can work Fred Nile in the senate, the LDP?
    Is he worse that the Family First senator?
    I do not think that Pauline like much the coalition members, it will be interesting to see to which side of the fence she jump.
    IMO it is going to be a nightmare for Malcolm and as I have said during the campaign IMO this government will not last 2 years.
    I cannot see how the main polices on the budget will be approved in the senate.
    If another election will be on the cards the LP will be mad in changing the leader.
    Interesting times ahead.

  15. Kaye Lee

    “With 77.6% of the vote counted, the ABC tally had the Coalition and Labor on 67 seats each, five crossbenchers, and 11 seats in doubt.”

  16. Neil of Sydney

    I am just wondering where abouts in Sydney Neil found a Nationals candidate to vote for.

    I didn’t. I put two conservative candidate before the local Liberal member because this person was one of the 53. I did vote for more Nats than Liberals in the Senate plus other conservative candidates. I did enjoy not putting Labor or Greens in my first 12. First time i have voted below the line.

    Also hello to all my fans who are so happy to see me posting here.

  17. Kaye Lee

    Oh….it’s just that you said the other day that you would be voting for the Nationals candidate. It’s ok….lot’s of people don’t have a clue about their local candidates. Commiserations on your choice missing out but it may have been just as well.

  18. diannaart

    (In whiny disbelieving voice)…. Who the f^ck keeps voting that nutter Fred Nile back – why isn’t he dead yet?

    Agree with points already made that senate is looking conservative – shame about Windsor & Oakeshott – guess Nat voters hold a grudge.

    TO Kaye Lee

    Love the “herding cats” – I did hope for a nightmare senate for Turnbull. 😀

  19. OzFenric

    Currently the AEC has Labor with more seats than the Coalition. I’m still holding onto glimmering hope. Even if Turnbull manages to marshall the support of sufficient lower house independents to form government, he can say goodbye to any chance of governing on his own mandate and putting down the right of his own party. I’ll not be surprised to see him rolled before too long.

  20. deanyz1

    Cathy McGowan stated unequivocally before the election that if there was a hung parliament, she would not support any side to form one. And you are right, David1 – The AEC is giving better results than MSM – http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

  21. Kaye Lee

    It’s someone from Nile’s party – he is a state politician.

    Malcolm’s speech was dreadful. Not only have all his previously held principles been abandoned, any attempt at raising the tone has also been thrown away. He is incapable of listening. Arrogant certainty bred by privilege typifies the Liberal Party. He has to blame someone else. It isn’t him. It isn’t his policies. How many times did we hear Liberal MPs say I haven’t read the report but I know better.

  22. Kaye Lee

    The AEC is saying Labor 71, Coalition 67, Greens 1, Katter 1, Xenophon 1, Wilkie, McGowan, and 7 undecided (at this stage). Even if Malcolm got all 7, it is not enough for majority government.

  23. cornlegend

    .
    Kaye Lee “Even if Malcolm got all 7, it is not enough for majority government.”
    yeah it is, he only needs 5 of them to govern in his own right without deals
    5 would give him 76 of the 150 and he is home and hosed .
    Then, wait for the fun

  24. Michael Taylor

    Cathy wasn’t giving any preferences. Confirms she declined to support any political party.

  25. Kaye Lee

    67+7=74 He also needs a Speaker. The 76 would give him government but only 75 votes.

  26. Freethinker

    Kaye, Bob Katter can be an option for a Speaker

  27. cornlegend

    He would be fine with 76

    Even with a Speaker he would be 75 {150 MPS}
    ALP +all others 74 74+ 75 +1 = 150
    Any bets on an Independent getting the Speakers job
    That would ensure he had a majority of 3

  28. Kaye Lee

    cornie, the AEC is saying Coalition 67, Labor 71, 5 others, with 7 undecided. Cassidy said 72 Coalition, 73 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Xenophon, with 3 others. I don’t see a Coalition majority government as a foregone conclusion by any means.

  29. kerri

    Can anyone explain to me how it is that the media keep giving it to the LNP when the AEC shows Labor in a clear lead??

  30. diannaart

    Freethinker

    My “guts” enjoyed a jolly good belly laugh. Thank you.

  31. Diane

    Oh thank you, thank you Kerri for asking that… I thought it was just me!

  32. cornlegend

    Kaye Lee,
    A little bit of cautious optimism creeps into the old fella 😀
    As at 2 oclock Labor scrutineers were at 13 in doubt, LNP ahead in 8
    Damn, if Labor could reduce the “ahead” number :-{ !!

  33. Kaye Lee

    Cathy McGowan was asked before if she would be interested in being Speaker and she replied she was elected to represent her constituents – I think she would be very good but I understand her reticence. Katter doesn’t bear thinking about.

  34. David1

    I’m optimistic and given the way voting went Saturday, Turnbulls hopeful declaration his rabble will get the majority of postals and specials are, lets say somewhat arrogant. He voiced his opinion on how they usually go, not prepared to admit had this been a usual election, he would be certain of still being PM for the next 3 years. He is not and it shows.

  35. Kaye Lee

    Diane and kerri,

    Possible reasons.

    Postal votes tend to favour the Coalition. Let’s face it, our children don’t even know how to send a letter.

    A girlfriend rang me last night somewhat upset that “people came into mum’s dementia ward at the nursing home and made them all vote”. There will be a lot of that going on.

    There was a very large pre-poll which traditionally favours the incumbent – this time I am not so sure.

    I would say the MSM is suffering from premature congratulation.

  36. Matters Not

    While the Speaker in the HOR doesn’t have a ‘deliberative’ vote, the Speaker does have a ‘casting’ vote in the event of a tie. Appointing one of your number as the Speaker doesn’t translate to a ‘lost’ vote if a ‘crunch’ comes.

    As for Katter becoming a Minister, let’s not forget he was a Queensland State Minister for Northern Development and Aboriginal and Islander Affairs from 1983 to 1987, Minister for Northern Development, Community Services and Ethnic Affairs from 1987 to 1989, Minister for Community Services and Ethnic Affairs in 1989, Minister for Mines and Energy in 1989, and Minister for Northern and Regional Development for a brief time in 1989 until the Nationals were defeated in that year’s election.

    He is fondly remembered for his work in Aboriginal Affairs. But today Katter survives politically by always being outside the tent. Always free to criticise. Nevertheless he could do a Barnaby and shift a whole government Department into his electorate.

  37. Kaye Lee

    That is true MN. If they reach 76 then then the Speakership is irrelevant. If they are a minority government it could however be pivotal.

  38. Miriam English

    If Labor and the Greens collaborate, the LNP will need 9 of the 10 crossbenchers to agree to pass legislation — Labor/Greens would only need 3 to block.

    Alternatively, when Labor vote with the LNP (as they do more than 60% of the time) then we are basically screwed.

  39. Kaye Lee

    Unless they are voting for something good Miriam. And after this result, they are sure going to be looking for our approval. It is our job to keep vocal to steer them towards the right course. We have now all been given the power that a hung parliament provides. Demand from your representative that they make decisions based on the common good. I am sick of the blame game. It is up to all of us to turn up.

  40. kizhmet

    Diane/Kerri – not just you, I have been trying to work it out as well. From what I can gather, ABC is based on input from their resident ‘experts’ on how the “undecided” will pan out.

    @Freethinker – thank you. Thoroughly enjoyed a little light relief. Bravo!!

    @Kaye Lee – Premature congratulation 🙂 Still chuckling. Thank you :-))))))

  41. keerti

    With a small majority, a left senate and tony-credlin looking for their job back I give a lieberal government 6 months before it falls on it’s arse!

  42. vicki

    Agreed Keerti. Kaye Lee – my husband I cast early votes whilst in Darwin visitng family and we sure did not vote for the incumbents.

  43. Kaye Lee

    And so it begins…..

    “Whichever party forms government will have to embark on Senate negotiations with Ms Hanson, who has called for Parliament to “start passing legislation that is right for the people and our future generations”.

    According to her party’s agenda, that includes a royal commission into the “corruption” of climate science, adding climate change is “used as a political agenda by politicians and self interest groups or individuals for their own gain”.

    “We cannot allow scare mongering by people such as [respected scientist] Tim Flannery, who make outlandish statements and are not held accountable,” it says. “Climate change should not be about making money for a lot of people and giving scientists money.”

    The party also wants the Renewable Energy Target scrapped and would oppose any moves towards an emissions trading scheme.

    One Nation, which came to prominence for its divisive immigration policies, also wants a royal commission or similar inquiry to establish whether Islam is “a religion or political ideology”.

    The policy claims Islam’s religious aspect is a “fraud”, and rather, it is “a totalitarian political system, including legal, economic, social and military components, masquerading as a religion”.

    The party would also cease the intake of Muslim refugees and other migrants, ban the burqa and niqab in public places, and mandate that surveillance cameras be installed in all mosques and Muslim schools.

    No more mosques would be allowed to be built until the inquiry is held.

    One Nation also advocates net zero migration – which means limiting the number of new migrants to the number of people who leave Australia – because the nation is “near her carrying capacity”.

    One Nation would also rail against “unjust applications from the Family Law Court and Child Support Agency”. This would include replacing the Family Law Court with a “family tribunal” consisting of “people from mainstream Australia”. “

  44. @RosemaryJ36

    I assume that Neil of Sydney goes to a private doctor and a private hospital and never avails himself of Medicare as it would taint him to use a national service installed by Labor! But he has no choice over the Medicare levy! And incidentally Neil of Sydney – people with incomes below the median – which is about $43,000 pa – are being destroyed by the Coalition – as is the Reef!
    There is an interesting tool in this article:
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tool-that-compares-your-income-shows-most-australians-are-out-of-touch-20150512-ggznib.html

  45. David1

    Kaye Lee …the passing of the years has not halted the decay taking place in what I presume was the Hanson brain.

  46. jim

    Labor will win and Abbott will lead the Coalition and continue to make a dick of himself and his Lieberal party.

  47. diannaart

    Malcolm T should, at least, be happy with this outcome – more conservatives in senate… more vacuous, bigoted conservatives.

  48. townsvilleblog

    It seems that we have gained some absolute lunatics in the Senate, some religious and some not. A great opposition who will keep the tories on their toes, or a new Labor minority government which would be hard placed to get innovative policy through a Senate like this one. So much for Mal’s and The Greens Senate voting reforms.

  49. Freethinker

    townsvilleblog, I was not in favor of the voting reforms but IMO the lunatics in the senate are there because there are thousands of people that like them there.
    We having here the “Donald Trump Syndrome” and I do not know how long will last.

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