Trumble trembles and we should be worried
When a man as spineless as Turnbull has to negotiate with someone as cut-throat as Trump, Australians should be very worried. In his much-publicised gaffe, if Sean Spicer had referred to our PM as Mr Tremble instead of Trumble, we could have been forgiven for thinking it wasn’t even a mistake. It would describe the man perfectly.
For someone who had considerable success in merchant banking, Mr Tremble seems to have difficulties making deals without giving out major concessions. I make this comment based on his complete capitulation to the ultra conservatives in his party and his inability to make deals with either the Nationals or the cross bench, without giving up everything he stood for.
I am not actually planning on writing much about Donald Trump’s policies on this site, as they are being breathlessly analysed all over the world. However the revelations of the conversation between Trump and Tremble over refugees were frightening. I am far from the only person to be concerned with how this conversation panned out, but there was one significant aspect of the discussion that I thought might have raised more concern than it did.
Now I don’t for one minute disagree that these detainees that our government has imprisoned for years are our responsibility. There is no consistent economic, humanitarian or border protection reason for keeping them imprisoned any longer. I would like to see them brought to Australia, but given that seemed unlikely, I was cautiously in favour of the agreement struck with the Obama administration. But although it seemed to capture the majority of attention and coverage in relation to this issue, the fact that this deal seemed in jeopardy once more was not my biggest concern.
I also wasn’t completely surprised by Tremble’s silence in a time when many other world leaders were speaking out about the unconscionable travel ban. Aside from not wanting to upset the far right of his party, perhaps he felt he could handle the condemnation, if that was what it took to rid himself of the serious political difficulties his government faces over refugees (remember when New Zealand offered to take several hundred of them and Dutton rejected the offer). After all, we have already seen Tremble appears to value his job above anything resembling his values or his dignity.
But it wasn’t going to be that easy. President Trump has made it quite clear he is very unhappy about accepting any refugees, describing them with his typical lack of class as “the next wave of Boston Bombers.” Yet as I write this the deal lives on. One wonders why. There has been some discussion and analysis suggesting it may still go through, which makes Trump’s bluster look more like a deliberate bargaining strategy. Sickening as it sounds, they were basically haggling over the fate of these asylum seekers the way we haggle over the price of a used car.
By publicly slamming the agreement, Trump could be preparing the ground to ask for something more in response, whether it be now or in the future. Reportedly this may include military activities, such as a freedom of navigation exercise in the South China Sea. This is what really alarms me. Surely our Prime Minister would not put Australian servicemen’s lives in danger and at the same time antagonise China just to rid himself of a domestic political trouble? Would he?
What scares me is that it isn’t even hard to believe that he would. The Coalition has a strong recent history of relying on ‘national security’ to deflect attention from their incompetent management of the economy, backwards social policies and outright corruption. According to the then US ambassador to Australia, Tremble’s predecessor, Abbott was reportedly itching to send soldiers to Syria a few years ago too. For someone as notoriously bad at making deals to be using our military as a bargaining chip is not just an affront to the courage and dedication of our servicemen. It is downright scary.
Recent history may have tied our foreign policy to the United States, but as Trump has bluntly showed, we are entering a new era of realpolitik and we must ensure Australia is making foreign policy decisions in the nation’s best interest. With our American ally increasingly erratic and unpredictable, Australia cannot assume action taken today will mean anything tomorrow. It would be irresponsible and foolish to anger a regional neighbour as important and powerful as China, especially with Trump showing no sign that we can rely on American support in anything that does not benefit the USA.
I should add that the Prime Minister has actually come out publicly and said there will be no quid pro quo, but he has said a lot of things and not many people place much faith in his words. This was most likely already a bargain of some sort- remember we paid Cambodia several million dollars to settle three refugees in 2015. The question is whether the terms of the deal have shifted further in America’s favour. If America does end up resettling some of these unfortunate human beings, and then sometime down the track our soldiers are committed to a conflict that has little bearing on our national interest, we give political support the USA at cost to our own multilateral relationships, or we agree to favourable trading conditions for our larger ally; it would not be hard to believe the two events were connected.
The refugees in offshore detention are not a problem for Australia. They are a problem for the Coalition government though. Allowing them into this country would actually be of benefit both from a financial perspective and our international reputation. As such, for our Prime Minister to make concessions at the cost of the Australian people for purely his own and his party’s benefit is morally indefensible.
To borrow a line from Andrew O’Keefe, the words Tremble needs to remember are, “No Deal!”
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It appears that the contra to the Americans taking these people in our detention centres ie we take some Central Americans has fallen off the radar
Yes sir, you speak for many of us. I am scared witless.
Dave – exactly as I saw it too. By pushing for this deal despite knowing Trump would hate it, Tremble has now put us in an insidious position. We are now beholden to him, a trick the Mafia would commonly use – We’ve done you a favour, now its time for you to do us one… In my opinion (published https://www.theaimn.com/not-negotiate-deal-101/), the smarter move would have been to take the deal off the table and start again, recognising that times have changed. It was a dodgy deal in the first place, and now it is just a terrible one.
As far as Mr Turnbulls credibility as a successful businessman is concerned, I’m not convinced. We know he made a lot of money as a speculator (getting out the dotcom market just before it crashed – handy to be on the inside loop perhaps?), and he was a managing director of Goldman Sachs Australia (though it should be stated that merchant banks are full of “managing directors” etc – even I, as a senior IT manager was a “director”, so a managing director might only be the head of a department – his Wikipedia entry is perfectly vague), and then a partner (amongst how many? How much did partnership cost him, or was it part of the deal when his business was acquired?). Again, few details, and interestingly he rarely discusses his experiences during this period – though I am sure he has taken full advantage of being part of a very large and powerful alumnus.
Certainly his management/leadership capabilities whilst in government have been sorely lacking. But nowadays style is far more important than substance it would appear.
Australia appears to be losing its soul? Forget about selling our sole to the devil! I wonder how much the focus on political correctness has had to contribute? Our political leaders answer to the money masters who need a war of massive proportions to clear the mountain of debt they created. It will be interesting to see how our planet is functioning after Easter this year…
We could solve a lot of problems if we required that the public get a say on going to war and that those promoting it be the first to take up front line action. Starting with the relevant PM, and if he is over 70, his son(sons) -or daughter(s)
Just bring those people here…. Win/win solution.
I’m with you win jeavons let those that agree to sending our troops be the leaders on the front line or sacrifice their children and grandchildren. Ultimately I would prefer no war.
Totally agree, tell trump deals off, bring them to australia. Shut those hell holes down. Any deal with trump is a deal with the devil.