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A Fragmented Review of Climate Change

By Keith Antonysen

Munich Re which underwrites insurance companies has indicated that 2017’s high costs for climate change are the “new normal”. It could be regarded as merely an argument to increase premiums; except, a number of climate parameters suggest otherwise. Carbon Brief provides a summation of situations which have progressed over time:

  • Oceans act as a sink for warmth, it takes them a long time to warm or cool through their sheer volume.  In 2017 they were the warmest  ever recorded.
  • 2017 was the second or third warmest year recorded, depending on which dataset was used. Of significance, 2017, was the warmest year recorded without the influence of an El Nino event.
  • The Arctic sea ice extent and volume have continued to decrease, the lowest extent in September was the eighth lowest ever recorded. Volume has changed downward by about 80% since 1979.
  • Antarctic is being investigated quite profusely at present, its sea ice has been at low levels. The huge 5,698 square kilometre Larson C ice sheet  broke clear in July 2017. A number of major ice sheets are considered to be at risk as grounding lines are moving shorewards.

The significance of the Arctic, Antarctica and oceans are that they virtually act as a thermostat influencing global temperature

Oceans warming is causing coral reefs to be severely damaged, dead spots  are beginning to form in Oceans, a slight decrease in ocean oxygen production, a slight slowing down of the AMOC (Gulf Stream), and phytoplanton dying; these are matters of huge concern.

The cryosphere also presents huge concerns … thawing of permafrost, release of methane and CO2, has an influence on climate generally. The Siberian continental shelf and tundra have a huge potential to release copious amounts of CO2 and methane. The clathrate explosion scenario is a remote possibility; though, we have already had explosions of pingos in Siberia. Arctic sea ice is in poor condition with the bulk of multi year ice having been lost and about 80% of volume having  gone since 1980. Arctic sea ice could be lost within two years, a somewhat remote possibility; but, being lost in ten plus/minus years is a real possibility (follow the maths); regardless, the situation is not good.

Attribution has been an area scientists have been researching lately, the terrible hurricanes experienced in 2017 have the finger print of climate change though not caused by climate change.

California has had wild fires in winter.

With continuing use of fossil fuels more aerosols are pushed into the atmosphere; ironically, once fossil fuels are no longer used aerosols will dissipate and the atmosphere will warm initially.

A number of hyperlinks have been provided which give only an extremely small fragment of information in relation to climate change, thousands of papers are published in reputable science journals each year.

Climate change is already having an impact on individuals, communities and countries through extreme storms, drought, and huge wildfires. The dollar costs of climate change are increasing, hardly a legacy to pass onto younger people.

 


18 comments

  1. guest

    Meanwhile, right-wing media continues to publish long-debunked climate nonsense supporting the fossil fuel industry and the coal-hugging Coalition government (along with Trump’s ideological nightmare as if he is now the ideal exemplar for all things political and economic). It is enough to make one weep rivers of tears.

    How can we bring litigation against these wilful economic and environmental vandals?

  2. johno

    Oz’s cabon footprint is a disgrace.

  3. Keith

    guest

    Litigation and potential litigation is happening in the US. Dr James Hansen, along with a group of young people started litigation against President Obama; the case had been held up through various legal procedures, it is continuing against Trump. Also, ExxonMobil and some other companies are being tackled legally by US States, share holders and young people.

    Any adverse decisions made against the US government and fossil fuel companies will have a wide impact elsewhere I would expect.

  4. johno

    I have been doing some looking into my own carbon footprint. My deisel hilux is the big one. When my business was in full swing I was doing up to 30,000 km annual. A rough calc gave my CO2 output at 8 tonne, which put me almost double the world mean just on car use alone.
    The Australian average is about 16 tonne.

  5. Andreas Bimba

    What greater proof do you need that powerful segments of the corporate oligarchy and plutocracy have siezed control of our governments, parliaments and civil service as well as much of the mass media.

    Either the world’s electorates reinstate genuine democracy or we face the abyss.

  6. LOVO

    ” Extremely Warm Cyclone Predicted to Drive 50-60 F Above Average Temperatures Across North Pole

    Our lexicon of what’s considered to be normal weather does not include February days in which temperatures at a North Pole shrouded in 24-hour darkness cross into above freezing ranges. But that’s exactly what some of our more accurate weather models are predicting will happen over the next five days.”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2018/01/31/extremely-warm-cyclone-predicted-to-drive-50-60-f-above-average-temperatures-across-north-pole/

  7. LOVO

    Not Even the Briefest of Pauses for Human-Forced Global Warming — Oceans During 2017 Were the Hottest on Record

    “Where does most of the heat trapped by human fossil fuel and other greenhouse gas emissions ultimately end up? Given our fixation on global surface temperatures, many people would say ‘the atmosphere.’ But this answer is incorrect. The vast majority ends up in… ”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2018/01/26/not-even-the-briefest-of-pauses-for-human-forced-global-warming-oceans-during-2017-were-the-hottest-on-record/

  8. johno

    Cape Town’s dam is down to less than 13% and people are now on a 50 litre daily allocation.

    Irrigator Keith Bradley has spent his life in this valley. He’s seen good seasons and bad, but nothing like this.

    “We are now in our third year of below-average rainfall. Dramatically below-average rainfall for the past three winters. And it’s really last roll of the dice now,” he says.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-21/cape-town-day-zero-drought-looms-despite-date-pushback/9468238

  9. Keith

    The Archdeacon

    Dr Spencer and Dr Christy interpret satellite data from satellites in a different manner than other climate scientists. The data derived from satellites needs quite a lot of manipulation (modelling) to take into account changes in satellite orbits and atmosphere.

    The article “Satellite-derived land surface temperature: Current status and perspectives” ( 15 April 2013) is about the problems of trying to obtain accurate land based temperature from a satellite.

    Quote:

    “As seen from Eqs. (3) and (4), estimating the LST from the radiance measured at the TOA requires corrections for both atmospheric and emissivity effects. Applying these corrections is not a simple task, and some key difficulties and problems involved in the retrieval of the LST must be overcome and resolved.”

    Read further and explanations are provided.

    From:

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425712004749

    Your referenced site is a blog spot; they can be very unreliable.

  10. Keith

    The Archdeacon

    The simple answer to your question is that 2017 was the warmest year ever recorded for a non El Nino year. Temperature was higher in 2017 than the datum year of 1998, an El Nino year, constantly pushed by contrarians. Other years after 1998 were also warmer. Extreme wild fires during California’s winter 2018 says something about temperature as well.
    When temperatures have been reaching lows in lower latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures have been high in the Arctic in 2018 (Arctic Amplification).

  11. Peter F

    @johnoFebruary 5, 2018 at 6:15 pm : Why do you say “My deisel hilux is the big one”, why not ‘my Hilux’. Have you done the calculations on your footprint if you had done 30,000km in a petrol Hilux? Your wording would suggest that the Diesel is the problem, which might not be the total picture.Without diesel, you might have been closer to the average.

  12. guest123

    The naivety and ignorance in some of the comments is incredulous. Do more research on a) the subject of climate; (b) the subject of the structure of power on the planet; and (c) the state of the judicial system in western civilisation.

    Look into the Knights of Malta, the Knights of Colombuia, all the other orders of Knights, the Jesuit Order, the Council of Trent, the connection of the Vatican to business/capitalism, the usurping of the Vatican, the usurping of the Royal thrones, the connection of the banks to the members of the groups above, the connection of groups such as United Nations, CFR, Trilateral Commission, Bilderberg Group, etc.

    Standing on a tiny pedestal and demanding justice and so on isn’t going to get us anywhere.

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