The latest News Poll figures that surfaced last week after I had posted The polls are in search of some lasting credibility demonstrated the stability of the Coalition vote. They show you that the Coalition would have to commit a crime of catastrophic proportion to have Newspoll move a few percentage points.
Great indignities have been committed against women, but the polls have not budged. They have engaged in crimes of enormous corruption, but the polls remain steadfast in their support of this rotten government. They have repeatedly and consciously told lies with significant consequences for the people. Nothing has changed.
Yet nearly half of the nation’s eligible voters see them as worthy of another three years in power. I have spent much time discerning the why of it without ever finding a satisfactory answer to this most perplexing question. Why does the Coalition maintain an election-winning lead over Labor when they have made so many blunders?
Could it be voter ignorance or that they see Labor as being a much worse proposition? Do they view Albo as being as bad as Shorten? Are the Polls wrong? Perhaps Morrison’s handling of the pandemic has impressed them, or do they like Morrison’s style and agree with his policies. He is a Christian, and God has ordained him. He said as much to a meeting of the Australian Christian Churches last week.
Maybe the propaganda of the Murdoch media overwhelms people.
It may be one or a combination of the reasons mentioned above. In looking realistically at Labor’s chances of defeating the conservatives at the next election, one must also consider these factors:
Albanese and Leadership
For all the criticism he gets, people neglect to mention that it is hard for an opposition leader to get much attention at the best of times, let alone during a pandemic. Albanese has never been tested running an election campaign, and he might well prove to be better at it than many people think.
The best thing about him is that he came into the Labor Party leadership squeaky clean and carries no heavy luggage. Conversely, Morrison is a proven liar and this, on top of his professed Christianity, also makes him a hypocrite.
Morrison and Leadership
Pentecostals believe in an explicitly literal interpretation of the word of God. Therefore, every word is literal and is to be regarded as God’s truth.
Romans:13.1:
Let every person be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and those that exist have been instituted by God.
COVID-19
Having said all that, let’s pretend Labor is conceding an edge to the Coalition going into the (April/May) 2022 election.
Scott Morrison will be favourite to be re-elected because by April of next year, vaccinations will have been (hopefully) completed, and the country will be returning to the better place we once knew.
Our experience of COVID-19 has been mild compared to that of other countries, and Morrison will paint a picture of his government’s success even though the states have been the most responsible. Just how much of the government’s propaganda people will swallow is anyone’s guess.
Currently, the government is suffering from a massive negative in so much as they have overseen an enormous stuff up of the vaccine rollout. This will have to be righted before Budget time, or they will suffer the consequences of a public view that they are incompetent.
However, the government will get much applause from what is really a perception and not the government’s truth.
Redistributions
The national Electoral Commissions redistributions seem sure to favour Labor.
Women’s Vote
Strangely, men don’t seem to be as concerned about the plight of women as women are. So far, Morrison hasn’t handled this most severe challenge to his re-election very well at all, and he is cutting it fine to do so. Women will undoubtedly be a critical issue in this election, and at the moment, women will account for many additional votes going to Labor.
Ask Pentecostal women how they fit it. Know your place.
Climate and the Environment
Facing world condemnation, Morrison seems intent on pursuing a policy of turning a significant world problem into a minor issue just when it has become a major one. And Labor, just because they blame it for losing the last two elections, want it to disappear altogether just when it could be a winner.
A net-zero emissions target by 2050 is also a profoundly divisive proposal within the Coalition. Going too far during an election campaign might ignite a fire of perpetual longevity in the party that won’t extinguish quickly.
“Liberal MPs representing wealthy Sydney and Melbourne seats fear they will face an electoral backlash if their party treats the issue as unimportant.
As a result, the PM has been pivoting towards the target slowly in an attempt to avoid too much infighting.”
Scare Campaigns
Morrison’s throwback to the Reds under the beds scare campaigns of Menzies’ time in power by exploiting our relationship with China will go down well because Australians have been conditioned to think this is possible.
Longevity
The government will have been in power for nine years. In that time, they have collected a level of dissatisfaction that reflects their incompetence. Scandal after scandal has followed them through their tenure.
Conservative Achievements
Nothing comes to mind.
Failures
Although they might try to rectify them in the budget, the worsening plight of many in aged care (despite reports, willing themselves to be implemented). Frequent exposés and increased spending. Transparency and integrity will also be questioned, together with accountability and, of course, the ramifications of cronyism.
Not dealing with integrity issues and their many ramifications – corruption, “benefits for donors, and the absence of accountability and transparency” – people will also figure out the overuse of COVID-19 as an excuse for doing nothing else.
Other factors going against the Coalition will be:
“… handicaps of unfavourable redistributions and retirements by an increasing number of sitting MPs also hinder Morrison’s chances.” (Dennis Atkins, The New Daily).
As is usual, it is the older generations from which the conservatives garnish their votes. This time there will be a lot fewer.
At the moment, Morrison has a lot of work to do – he looks stuffed before the race has begun.
While the electorate has very short memories, it will be tough for them to overlook the Coalitions nine years of misery. “Enough is enough,” you can hear Albo repeat.
Factors against Labor
Albanese must avoid looking like a poor man’s Bill Shorten. Shorten outlined his many policies in a thoughtfully truthful manner, and it proved a disaster.
Albanese believed it to be a lousy strategy and that he wouldn’t repeat it. Therefore, he will be playing a small target campaign, so we have nothing to praise or, conversely, criticise.
I’ll leave the final word to Roy Morgan:
“A recent poll conducted by Roy Morgan research found that a slim majority of 51% of Australians disapprove of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 and all related issues compared to 49% that approve. The 51% of Australians that disapprove of Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 and related issues have consistently brought up the ‘bungled’ vaccine rollout and also the perception Morrison is always ‘passing the blame’ to the states and others for anything that goes wrong and taking credit when it is the states that have done the greater part of the job dealing with COVID.”
This tells us that the “COVID-19 advantage” (for the sake of a better name) may not be the road to success at the next election that many people think.
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My thought for the day
Power must be a malevolent possession when you are prepared to forgo the principles of a secular government and your country’s well-being for the sake of a theocracy.
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