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All You Need To Know About How The Libs Leadership Battle Will Play Out (and several things you didn’t)!

So Parliament couldn’t sit this afternoon. Now the last time I couldn’t sit it was because a rather nasty boil on my buttocks, but the reason Federal Parliament couldn’t sit was completely…

Actually, when I think about it, it was a nasty, festering thing that caused the Liberals to knock off early.

Anyway, they felt that it was important to find out who the leader was before they got asked to pledge their support again, because backing Dutton one day then pledging your support for Turnbull the next then having to explain why you resigned from the ministry just a few hours after your pledge, doesn’t make you sound convincing when you next say, “Well, of course, I’m behind the PM. He has my full support… It is still a ‘he’, isn’t it?”

This afternoon, Malcolm came out and gave a press conference. In that typical strength and courage that we’ve come to expect from Turnbull, he announced that he wasn’t having a meeting unless he had to, but if he had to, then he wouldn’t be running. Or rather, he would be running. He’d be running right away and forcing a by-election in the seat of Wentworth because the new PM would need clear air, and nothing would give clean air like a by-election which would potentially lead to a minority government.

Turnbull went on to tell us that, unlike a few days ago when Dutton’s legal advice seemed enough to ignore questions about his eligibility to sit in Parliament, the matter had now been refered to the solicitor-general and we’d know by tomorrow whether Dutton’s eligibility would be a matter for the High Court. Let’s be clear here: If the solicitor-general says that they’re not sure, then it should obviously go to the High Court, which could lead to another by-election.

So let’s look at scenarios for tomorrow:

  1. Dutton doesn’t produce the 43 signatures. No meeting. The solicitor-general says that Dutton is in the clear.  Everybody goes home, and we all pretend like this was just fake news.
  2. Dutton doesn’t produce the 43 signatures. No meeting.  The solicitor-general says that Dutton needs to be refered to the High Court. Everybody goes home. Turnbull now has the problem of losing Dutton’s vote after the High Court ruling.
  3. Dutton produces 43 signatures, Turnbull looks at them carefully and notices that one of them says “Mickey Mouse”, he points out that over half of them are illegible and they all used the same pen. He says there won’t be a meeting. Everybody goes home.
  4. Dutton produces 43 genuine signatures.  A meeting is held where Dutton is elected unanimously, because Scott and Julie realise that he has the numbers. On his way out, Turnbull points out that the solicitor-general’s advice means that he needs to go to the High Court. It’s generally thought that Dutton must step down till this is resolved. Scott Morrison becomes PM, but loses a confidence vote in the House owing to the fact that neither Turnbull nor Dutton are there to vote.
  5. Dutton produces 43 genuine signatures. A meeting is held which ends up being a four way contest between Dutton, Morrison, Bishop and Kevin Andrews. After the first ballot, Andrews accuses it of being rigged because he definitely voted for himself and so therefore must have received more than zero votes. After an investigation, it’s discovered the Andrews inadvertently voted for another candidate. In the run-off between Dutton and Morrison, Julie Bishop wants to know if she can get her hat back after throwing it into the ring because it’s a nice hat and she needs it to match her outfit for the Melbourne Cup. Morrison wins by one vote and in show of good will offers Dutton the Home Affairs portfolio. Dutton accepts and has ScoMo taken into custody under his special powers as Home Affairs Minister. Asking the reason for the  arrest is deemed illegal and Dutton becomes our first PPM, or Permanent Prime Minister.
  6. Dutton produces 43 signatures. Turnbull chooses not to call the meeting, but isn’t locks himself in his room with comfort food for two days, before coming out and blaming Bill Shorten. The Liberals fail to elect a new leader because everyone nominates and there’s nobody left to run the election.
  7. Rupert Murdoch endorses Pauline Hanson as the best person to run the country.

Ok, some of these seem a little far-fetched. For example, who could believe that number one is a real possibility. But just remember you all thought that when I first wrote in 2014 that Turnbull would oust Tony Abbott, or that Donald Trump would spend most of his presidency saying, “You’re fired!” or when I told you that Scott Morrison was expecting Dutton to be the Trojan Horse that would open up the leadership and he’d just sail through on the slipstream.

Let’s be real, people. Now matter how ridiculous our speculation about tomorrow’s events is, the current mob can find a way to do something even sillier.


15 comments

  1. David Stakes

    After that explanation my head hurts.

  2. Aortic

    Interesting how one has to stand for Parliament until you become the sitting member. Perhaps kneeling in contrition for bringing the country to the brink due to unadulterated self interest may be more appropriate.

  3. Rossleigh

    Gee, David, if you’re head didn’t hurt BEFORE that explanation, you can’t have been paying attention…
    😀

  4. totaram

    Rossleigh: I agree completely, that the whole idea is to make your head hurt, both before and after any explanation, and indeed after further explanations as may be required. Panadol will probably help, but be careful. Too many of those can cause liver damage, thus making it dangerous to consume alcohol. You don’t want to go there.

  5. jamesss

    Thank you Rossleigh.

    The heads of ministers obviously hurt, they were so confused they had to head home.
    Maybe that’s why we have a none performing none govt.

  6. Abbie

    What a balls-up mess.
    Lying Nasty Pricks.
    Destroying Australia to fill their coffers in the Caymans.

    Cruel, obfuscating, vicious, child murderers, destructive, denying the Vulnerable, using and abusing humans like their play-things.
    Vile creatures who prove there is no god as they invoke their lord and condemn compassion as a weakness.

    Worse than all this is the stupidity of the Australian people. Shame and disgust as they warble “Advance Australia…..but only the fair”.

    Not one of them deserves for me to even mention their names.
    Conservatives may not all be stupid but only stupid people vote conservative…Greedy, ignorant, cruel bastards.

  7. Oscar

    Newsflash LNP backbencher Allan Jones has been hinting he may throw his hat in the ring for the leadership of the LNP.

  8. Ross in Gippsalnd

    Back in 1971 Prime Minister John Gorton voted himself out of the job after a tied vote of no confidence in his leadership. Gorton was succeeded by Billy McMahon who was widely regarded as the worst PM of all time, until very recently. McMahon thankfully lasted only a short time before Gough Whitlam strode like a colossus onto the stage ending 23 years of inertia and stagnation under Liberal rule.
    Could history be repeating itself in the 21st century? Or is that asking too much comrades.

  9. Nigel Drake

    @ Oscar
    That really is the Liberal Party down the (public) toilet, then 😉

  10. Kaye Lee

    Running with Dutton is going to lead to an all-out assault to get him referred to the high court.

    It also leaves them open to a kazillion lawsuits from individuals where Dutton has made decisions that have caused them personal harm making the courts test his eligibility that way. Dutton has a habit of settling before things get to court. This could cost us a fortune.

    I think they have to pick ScoMo for that reason.

  11. Kaye Lee

    Cathy McGowan has just said her agreement about supply and confidence was with Malcolm Turnbull. She is not guaranteeing that to another leader. I don’t see how Dutton will be able to convince the GG that he has the confidence of the house.

  12. Oscar

    Nigel

    I jest of course. Though he may as well be a backbencher as he is behind all this mess.

  13. John L

    No 5. Don’t appoint Dutton, Scomo.
    Or maybe do…….

  14. guest

    Abbott must be very proud of the chaos he has created, but no doubt he has not finished yet. A hideous nightmare of treachery.

  15. king1394

    “Scott Morrison was expecting Dutton to be the Trojan Horse that would open up the leadership and he’d just sail through on the slipstream.” You are right again

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