The justifications are always the same. We are moving into territory for security reasons. We are creating a temporary buffer zone from which tactical advantage can be gained against potential dangers. Then, over time, these buffers become strategic fixtures, de facto real estate seizures and annexations. Israel now finds itself in what was a United Nations-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights, and Turkey is established in parts of northern Syria, keeping a watchful eye on Kurdish militants.

Since October 7 last year, Israel’s response to the attacks by Hamas has been one of sledgehammers and chisels, a conscious attempt to broaden the conflict beyond its Palestinian confines to targeting the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah and its sponsor, Iran. In doing so, Israel has played an increasingly destructive role in Syria, where Hezbollah targets and Iranian supply lines have been struck with regularity. The move is intended to cripple Teheran’s Axis of Resistance, a patchwork of Shia militias spanning Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria.

With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Israel intends further disruption. This marks a departure from a policy it had maintained with Assad for some years, one that permitted him and the Syrian Arab Army to operate without molestation subject to one stern caveat: that Hezbollah and, by virtue of that Iran’s influence, could also be contained. This point is made in documents recently unearthed by the New Lines magazine, one that directly involved a channel of communication between an Israeli operative code-named “Mousa” (Mosses) and the Syrian Defence Minister Lt. Gen. Ali Mahmoud Abbas.

A message dated May 17, 2023 outlines Israel’s indignation at an incident involving the firing of three rockets on Israel from the Golan Heights, an action purportedly instructed by Khaled Meshaal and Saleh al-Arouri of Hamas. “Lately, because of Quds Day and Flag March, we are observing Palestinian activities on your land […] We warn you of the prospect of any activity of these parties on your territory and we demand you to stop any [Iranian] preparations for the use of these forces on your territory – you’re responsible for what is happening in Syria.”

The collapse of Assad’s rule, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), has brought Israeli intentions to the fore. The group’s leader, Mohammed al-Julani, has made previous mutterings favouring the Hamas October 7 attacks and expressing solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Since then, al-Julani has expressed no desire to do battle “with Israel or anyone else and we will not let Syria be used as launchpad for attacks,” promised to protect minority rights and disband rebel groups for incorporation into the Ministry of Defence, and dissembled on whether the new administration would be focused on Islamic law.

On December 10, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made fairly redundant remarks that his government had no intention meddling in Syria’s internal affairs, only to warn Assad’s successors that any move allowing “Iran to re-establish itself in Syria or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it.”

Defence Minister Israel Katz similarly warned Syria’s triumphant rebel forces that “whoever follows in Assad’s footsteps will end up like Assad did. We don’t allow an extremist Islamic terror entity to act against Israel from beyond its borders… we will do anything to remove the threat.”

Since Assad’s fleeing on December 7, Israel’s air force has made it a priority to destroy the military means of any successor regime in Damascus, citing concerns that material would fall into the hands of undesirable jihadists. Over December 10 and 11, 350 strikes were conducted on anti-aircraft batteries, airfields, weapons production sites including chemical weapons, combat aircraft and missiles (Scud, cruise, coast-to-sea and air-defence varieties) in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra. “I authorised the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army,” reasoned Netanyahu, “so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists.”

A bold estimate from the IDF about the operation described as “Bashan Arrow”, was that it had destroyed approximately 70-80% of the strategic military capabilities of Assad’s Syrian Arab Army. As of December 16, the total number of strikes Israel has conducted on Syrian territory has reached 473. For any advocate of stability, which would require some measure of military capability, this could hardly augur well.

Over the course of this glut of sorties, Israeli troops have militarised the demilitarised zone inside Syria created in the aftermath of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, including Mount Hermon, a site overlooking Damascus. The menacing move on Syrian territory was sanitised by IDF military spokesperson Colonel Nadav Shoshani: “IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus. This is not something we are doing or pursuing in any way.” Both the Beirut-based Mayadeen TV, and the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have taken the gloss off such assessments, stating that the IDF has moved within 16 miles of the Syrian capital.

Crippling the infrastructure of the state that awaits the fledgling ruling parties in Syria, who can only count themselves as a ragtag transitional entity at this point, stirs an already turbulent, precarious situation. The very scenario which Netanyahu and his planners wish to avoid, and Assad sought to prevent, may well be realised.