Saturday 14 April 2018
Every Saturday from now on I plan to bring you something a little different. So this is a trial run and you will get the gist as you read through. Any thoughts and suggestions would be appreciated.
Comment of the week
“Russell Green on my Facebook comments on “30th Poll day.” If you look at the number of Newspolls since the election in 2013, there have been 99, including Turnbull’s 30th, in that time the coalition have “won” only 20 polls (of that 20, 7 were 50 – 50). So in 99 polls, the coalition has been ahead of Labor on a 2PP basis in only 13 Polls since they have been in government.
Think about that for a moment, it is a time period that includes the honeymoon after 2 elections and the period after Turnbull was made leader. That equates to about 6 months where the coalition have been the preferred government. Whichever way you look at it and whatever means you measure it, the Coalition Governments of Abbott and Turnbull have been nothing short of a disaster.
This is my point nobody is talking about how incompetent, corrupt and destructive they have been. This is the tragedy! If the coalition were being talked about in the same manner that Rudd/ Julia/Rudd were, the polls would be 60 – 40% Labor. While the Polls aren’t the story they do tell a story.
There has been a lot of speculation on how significant the 30 poll mark actually is and Turnbull’s use of that number. I believe that it comes down to HUBRIS pure and simple. When Turnbull spoke those words it was done with all the humility that comes from someone obsessed with his own infallibility. He simply couldn’t believe that he would be in the same position as Abbott. His ego wouldn’t allow for such a consequence. He is now and forever considered the SAME AS Abbott, an abject failure.”
The Polls from The Pollbludger
“The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26.”
Bill Shorten has won: 30 Newspolls in a row against Tony Abbott; 30 Newspolls in a row against Malcolm Turnbull.
I think that would make him officially Australia’s most effective “Leader Of The Opposition.”
Overheard this week
Calling election before redistribution is complete would see Labor gain 2 seats and the Liberal Party lose 1 because both states and the ACT must elect the changed number of members. The AEC would have to do mini-redistributions before the election to match new numbers. Labor now looks like losing the seat of Hindmarsh in South Australia.
Peter Fitzsimons on the Republic
Have answered many times.
My preference: Current system: PM chooses GG, asks Q for blessing. New system. PM chooses GG, ask Parliament for blessing. All else same.GG still called GG. Oz still called Commonwealth of Australia.
But Oz, suddenly free-standing ‘neath Southern Cross!
Pollie Pedal and loss of energy
So Tony Abbott’s pollie pedal (where the MPs involved claim taxpayer-funded travel allowances) just happens to be riding through the La Trobe Valley – coal mining country – on the day the 30th Newspoll hits. You can only laugh at such a calculating use of a charity initiative…a blow out of sorts.
Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg doesn’t deny he called AGL directors to bag AGL CEO Andrew Vesey. PM Turnbull phoned AGL chairman Graeme Hunt. Liddell power station still in play. Intense pressure on this company.
Are we in a dictatorship? This rotten mob is interfering in the running of a company, putting pressure to bear on the CEO to reverse company decisions. What next? Send their pet attack dogs, the AFP, to raid his house?
This government clearly has an improper relationship with the AFP. It has protected many since September 2013. The Campion jobs conspiracy is just another example of politicians breaking the law then quashing justice. The only difference here is the Prime Minister is involved.#insiders
Drinking will shorten your life, according to a major new study that suggests every glass of wine or pint of beer over the daily recommended limit will cut half an hour from the expected lifespan of a 40 year old.
I’m sure it’s a conservative plot?
Australia’s coal-loving, climate sceptics avowed monarchists might want to note Her Majesty has just addressed climate change for the first time.
2030 is the year it is predicted the 1% will own 2 thirds of the world’s wealth. Serfdom folks.?
The week’s top tweets
Retweeted Michael KoziolExtraordinary. Malcolm Turnbull has done more than 100 special deals with some of Australia’s most elite private schools to give them money from a secret $7.1 million government slush fund. This at the same time as he’s ripping billions of dollars from needy public school
Also, polling experts dismiss respondent allocated preferences as unreliable, based on long experience. It is why Newspoll doesn’t do it. A try on just like the isolated question on company tax cuts. Partisanship gone mad at the Fin.
Tosh Frydenberg invents new lie about emissions – claiming to Press Clubbers that on a per capita basis we have a record low. Utter nonsense. Emissions have risen every year under Coalition. No hint of population increase over the period of his latest specious statistic.
Pointing out that an interviewer demonstrates bias is not being sexist or abusive. Nobody in this conversation was defending the putrid abuse Sales copped yesterday. My concern is that as an @abc730 presenter we expect her to behave fairly. She doesn’t. It’s disappointing #abc730
The outcome of 4 and 1/2 years of the LNP’s plan to “reduce” debt:
Today, gross debt is $522.3 billion
(Source: http://www.aofm.gov.au )
Up $249.3 billion since the 2013 election
Rising faster and by more than it did under the ALP
Without a GFC to explain why
“If we expect the private sector to invest in the $200 billion of energy infrastructure Australia needs to 2050, it needs to know the rules of the game”
And for 10 years the LNP have created that very uncertainty
Tim’s timely tips
Tim Leeder is a Facebook friend who messages me every day with all manner of comments.
A It does have some parallels to 1991. The view was Hawke should go but Keating was a risk.
B Who was the last non-Australian GG?
C Saw a funny photo of Turnbull on a boat on Sydney Harbour without a paddle. Symbolic?
D Gillard lost 33 Newspolls. Hawke 8. Nelson 16.
True. This is what happens when a moderate leads a conservative party.
E Turnbull will not walk, if no one challenges, he stays.
F I suspect the view is the election is lost. Turnbull should take the hit.
G Joyce says if no improvement by Christmas then Turnbull should resign.
H Support for an undefined republic at 50 percent. Opposition at 41 percent. Undecided at 9 percent. It’s not enough to carry a referendum
I Quite possibly. This is the start of the end for Turnbull. it will be a process of leaking and undermining for some months. But will have an inevitable conclusion.
J Love thy neighbour means thy Muslim neighbour. Thy gay neighbour etc.
K Apparently a secret ALP report said Albo as leader would have won the last election
L Nick Xenophon will effectively disappear from the parties he founded as state and federal parties rebrand themselves.
Something going on there. Although probably a good idea.
M The war on drugs has been a failure, it is killing more people than it is helping. Prohibition leads to black markets which have led to more crime. 15 years ago in Portugal, drugs were decriminalised, this saw a reduction in crime, overdose and death. Recently, a Victorian Parliamentary inquiry made 50 recommendations on how drug reform could be tackled in the state. The question is who will act on them in an election year?
N I disagreed with Howard on heroin injecting rooms. He said they won’t be happening whilst I am PM.
O Labor’s push to slap a minimum 30% tax on dividends has incensed the nation’s million-plus army of self-funded retirees.
The view is they vote Liberal anyway.
P In 2015 Turnbull had an approval rating of 54 percent. About that. Today it is 39 percent.
Q Abbott said Turnbull should know 6 months before the election if he can win it.
R Rudd said Gillard’s 2010 campaign was the worst labor campaign in history. Well, leave it in the past l think. Move on
S The Labor leader is considering switching from his Melbourne seat of Maribyrnong following a rewriting of electoral boundaries.
To Fraser. Which is safer. Beazley did the same thing. Good luck to him. But can’t see his current seat being in any danger.
T GST distribution. SA gets $6.7 billion. ACT $1.2 billion. WA gets $3.2 billion. VIC gets $16.8 billion. NSW gets $18 billion. NT $2.7 billion. TAS $2.4 billion. QLD $14.4 billion.
U I am unsure why on earth the government puts up with public criticism of itself by Abbott
V Kevin Rudd has labelled Julia Gillard’s 2010 election campaign as the ‘worst-run in Labor history’.
Well ironic given he destroyed it.
W As Richo said in 2013 the Gillard supporters gave Rudd a free run at it. And the result was as good as could have been expected in the circumstances.
X PM says he will pay half the $10 billion cost for the Melbourne airport to city rail link. Wants the Victorian government to pay the rest.
Y Malcolm Turnbull is insisting the federal election will not be held until the first half of next year but he is creating the option of going earlier by requesting the state Liberal Party divisions to hurry up and finalise their preselections.
Z Sunday Mail editor Peter Gleeson: Many ordinary punters are telling Malcolm Turnbull to ‘lurch to the right a little’ in order to give the Coalition a chance of winning the next election.
Other argument is it does not matter. As people on the right will preference the Libs anyway.
Liberal MP Andrew Hastie has told Sky News he would like up to 10,000 white South African farmers be resettled in Australia.
My read for the week. Penny Modra. Book review.
“Grammar gripes: why do we love to complain about language?”
Clown of the week
It was a toss-up between Turnbull’s inability to recite Farnham’s classic lyrics, Dutton’s ongoing racist remarks or Barnaby’s stupidity. In the end, I had to give it to Dutton because of his amazing consistency.
My thought for the day
“One who understands others has knowledge; One who understands himself has wisdom.”