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Day to Day Politics: Volatile votes in search of a place in which to protest.

Monday 27 June 2016

A close examination of the outcome of the Brexit referendum reveals that the young, those who see the future in terms of international modernity, overwhelmingly voted ‘yes’. Importantly, one in five of them didn’t vote. It was a victory for the very worst elements of old style racist nationalism for which the old voted in abundance. People are drifting away from traditional politics, feeling disillusioned and disenfranchised.

In terms of the malaise of the young voter the same complacency can be seen in Australia, where only half of the 18 year olds eligible to vote in the upcoming election registered to do so. They understand the issues of a modern pluralist society but think they don’t have a voice. Or not one they would expect politicians to listen to.

What they miss both here and internationally is that in the absence of their collective vocal protest they are giving licence to the worst elements of civil disunity. They are, instead of seeking social change for the better, actually endorsing far right philosophy.

An observation.

“We must have the courage to ask of our young that they should go beyond desire and aspiration and accomplish not the trivial but greatness. That they should not allow the morality they have inherited from good folk to be corrupted by the immorality of evil minds”.

In the meantime, ultra conservatives worldwide are rejoicing. They have hate on their lips and their hate comes from the beginning of a smile.

Commentators in Australia are saying that the Brexit vote will advantage the conservatives here. I understand why, but whatever way you look at it, it was a protest vote and simply highlights the disdain people hold for politics. All ideology of whatever shade or colour. This protest, and a volatile one it is, might just as well benefit Labor or the independents.

The fact is that opinion polls are fast becoming less reliable. The last English election, Brexit, Victoria and Queensland have seen them all wrong. Dare I say that contrary to the assumption that I began with, people might be taking more notice than we think.

An observation.

Having the ability to admit that you are wrong is an absolute prerequisite to discernment and knowledge“.

All the experts might say that the Coalition will maintain the status quo, but will it? It’s a little premature to reveal my hand.

In a piece I wrote some time ago, ‘What should Shorten do’ I suggested that he should turn the body politic on its head. He hasn’t done that. Not even come close to it but a day is coming when a man or woman will confront established views and say they are not working and propose a new way to do democracy. A representative way.

Until then we are stuck with an outmoded model that is long past its used by date.

2 So here we are just days away from electing a new government. If the Coalition wins it will be the first Government in my memory to win two elections in a row without any multiple policies. If Labor does it will be an achievement for policy over slogans. Having said that it will not be a victory for democracy in so much as it will not have addressed the underlying problems that are destroying our social structures.

It will, however, be the first election in a long time to give us a clear ideological choice.

3 At first I couldn’t believe it. ‘Turnbull could lose his seat’ the headline said. “No”, I thought. Then on closer examination I found that it was true. He could do so even if the Coalition wins.

Roy Morgan released some polling last week with the intention of seeing how the Greens were going in their best 20 seats. One of them just happened to be the Prime Minister’s seat of Wentworth. He won the seat at the last election with 63.3 per cent of the first preference vote. The trendies of Wentworth loved him for his progressive ideas, his seemingly sophisticated discourse and his dislike of three word slogans.

v How disappointed with his interchange of “stop the boats” with “jobs and growth” they must be.

Indeed they are. The Morgan Poll had Turnbull’s vote down to 41.5 per cent. He is now just another politician.

Hard to believe, isn’t it? Where has his support flown to? According to Morgan, Labor got 8.1 per cent of it taking them to 27.5 per cent. The Greens got 7.4 per cent of it taking them to 22 per cent. Together Labor and the Greens have 49.5 per cent of the vote in Wentworth. Others have 9 per cent.

So assuming that Labor gets most of the Green preferences and a few from others, then Labor is in with a chance.

If fact the bookies odds of 20 to 1 look like a fair bet to me.

4 Much has been written about the scare campaigns from both parties. With the Liberals on border control I can only say, “what’s new?” It’s not a scare campaign of election necessity but the continuation of one that has been ongoing for many years.

As for Labor you can call it a scare campaign if that’s your desire but in their defence it is not without substance. You can suggest that the privatisation of a portion of it does not represent a sell off but it is also valid to suggest that doing so could be the start of it.

An observation.

“Life is about perception. Not what is but what we perceive it to be”.

5 When it got to the end of Malcolm Turnbull’s campaign launch a few things occurred to me. The first was just how much time he spent talking about his opponent. Of course there are many interpretations you can read into it but his constant emphasis on telling people how they should vote suggest to me at least that internal polling has them worried.

Secondly, when you have little to say about your own party then people should question why they deserve your vote.

Thirdly, after perusing the venue it occurred to me that Liberal Party donations must have dried up. Fourthly, I recalled that it wasn’t so long ago when he addressed a similar gathering those assembled booed him.

And lastly, I couldn’t see John Hewson in the audience. Well to be truthful I knew he wasn’t there because he was at an environmental protest in the Prime Minister’s seat of Wentworth.

My thought for the day.

The pathway to the riches of knowledge is in the reading, the exchange of creative ideas and in the doing“.

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  1. michael lacey

    If you listen to people who live in the UK you have to understand in austerity affected communities how hated David Cameron and George Osborne have become and their sloganeering of “Where all in it together”. We must remember this neoliberal dogma the same dogma Turnbull and his swill want to impose on Australian communities with similar useless slogans like “jobs and growth”.

    The Bank of England has committed up to 250 Billion pounds. Bad news causes the Central banks to print money then the whole charade continues, their magic bag of money injected into the economy but it will never make it into the real economy, wages will never go up but asset prices for the elite, property or fine art will increase.

    It is manipulated class war and the central banks and their neoliberal dogma are complicit in this behavior. The working class in Britain have decided to kick Cameron in the teeth and tell them what they think of their dogma, they need to do the same in Australia as well. There will be consequences but for working class people feeling the effects of austerity they do not care! We need not just Labor back but a party with an economic model devoid of neoliberal dogma!

  2. Kizhmet

    Talking to a friend of many decades yesterday. He is voting LNP. To say I was mortified is an understatement. He is a self funded retiree. Owns a small business. Owns his own home. He isn’t voting ALP on the basis of pink batts and schools program introduced by Labor – according to him they were fiascos of biblical proportions. I suspect his logic reflects that of many of the over 65s who vote LNP. How he can possibly think the present government has done – or will do – a better job defies explanation.

  3. wam

    just watched morrison’s mouth moving and the autocue children nodding sagely.
    It is too late for labor to show their economic credentials because the belief in liberal superiority is rife.
    Like you, Kizhmet, my friends are unable to see the 100s of thousands of successes in the labor stimulus or understand the millions spent on royal commissions were wasted. They are not uneducated rednecks.
    Sadly labor are just tail chasers they have had 3 years to rubbish the economic errors of the rabbott gov and the debt crisis but failed.
    Remember when Stiglitz told us how good gillard and the economy was? Who did we believe? Wankers the rabbott and his joey?
    We cannot get on sunrise, today or the wireless to counter the turnbulls..t so are on target get slaughtered and had better hope xenophon and lambe can stop a coalition controlling the senate.

  4. @RosemaryJ36

    Kizhmet: Friends of mine say they do not trust Shorten so cannot vote Labor!

  5. Sir ScotchMistery

    Kizhmet I agree totally.

    If we get another neoliberal government, (which we will since both the Liarberals and their rusted on cockie-tossers, the Joycinals depend on people who are seen as bright on the back of their success in business, but don’t care who they vote for as long as they are “LNP”, and the Alternative Liarberal Party, led by the Jesuit indoctrinated Shorter, are “neoliberal”), we can only hope the senate does reflect the will of thinking Australians, in some small measure.

    Fear is a great leveler in some respects, but not all. Indifference and apathy are likely to be a bigger part of it than any of us can see coming.

    I have no faith in the body politik at either the voter level or at the level of the ruling classes, who both see it as their “right”, to rule us in such a way as to maximise their personal wealth for later in life.

    I’m getting out of the city in a few years and will campaign in my new home for a thinking group of officials. Not for the liarberal/nationals who are the party of choice in my new home.

  6. Adnil

    There’s an old saying that politicians will stand for whatever we fall for, and bloody hell haven’t they fallen for the crap that spills out of their filthy mouths. I despair because I also have a couple of friends who will vote for the lnp. It beggars belief that they, as well others, have been so brain washed into thinking that this bunch of crooks will bring STABILITY!! Please please wake up before it’s too late.

  7. helvityni

    I don’t trust; Turnbull, Dutton, Morrison,Bishop, Cash, Barnaby, Abbott…I’m desperately trying to find at least one on the Coalition side whom I trust.

    I’ll promise to come back and tell you if I find one…

  8. Gangey1959

    Its been good hearing from you helvityni. Have a nice life. (roflmao)
    I may be wrong, but I have a gut feeling that a well hung lower house and a rabble controlled senate might just be the outcome of next Saturday.
    I don’t know whether that will lead to another election, which will mean a lnp whitewash, or a labor/?? alliance and 3 more years of mad monk style negativity from the losers canning everything in sight with the aid of the msm.
    I have to disagree with you John. Brexit was not necessarily a racist based vote. Maybe older brits are of the same opinion I am. At nearly 60, and having not much to show for a life there is not a lot of point in stressing over me buying a house (again), and getting into uni (again) to do the degree I should have stood up to my parents for back in 1978, but I’m f*cked if I’m going to let the government of whatever persuasion putting hurdles of money, or religion, or lack of employment, or whatever else in the way of my nieces and nephews when they get to the relevant ages.
    Australia is for Australians. Australians are people who are born here. I don’t care where their parents came from, how long ago, what they believe in, or what they wear, but people who were not born here should not be learning here or working here at the expense of Australians. It is as simple as that, and I think personally that the Brexit vote reflected the same sentiment in britain.
    A large degree of it comes down to the haves v the have nots, but that is a Sword of Damocles created by the haves.
    That’;s my two bobs worth.
    Back to house hunting. Effing rental records *%#@$@ !

  9. townsvilleblog

    michael lacey, you nailed it mate. helvityni you won’t find one so please don’t waste your time looking, the extreme rabid right wing faction of the LNP have just about got the numbers to replace Turnbull with their leader, Abbott. I expect that if the LNP win the election we will return to Abbott within 6 months.

  10. Graeme Henchel

    Malcolm and the Thug

    It was nearly three years ago
    That we began our tale of woe
    When Abbott and his circus came to town
    They’d defeated Kevin Rudd
    With the help of Murdoch’s mud
    And Abbott wore the shoes of the clown

    The thug had gone in hard
    On Julia Gillard
    Earning himself the title Dr No
    With Rupert on his side
    He just sloganeered and lied
    And got in with no policies to show

    And so began the tale
    Of the Mad Monk’s mammoth fail
    A story that was never a surprise
    Because Abbott and his crew
    Had no clue of what to do
    Once the public stopped believing all their lies

    It didn’t take too long
    When things started to go wrong
    promises were broken from the start
    Then Mathias and Joe Hockey
    Smoking cigars and feeling cocky
    dropped a budget that stunk worse than a fart

    What followed was a disaster
    We’d never seen it happen faster
    As the polls went into terminal decline
    We had Abbott’s Dames and Knights
    And the Egghead’s “Bigots rights”
    And the backflips of perfidious poodle Pyne

    But it was the captain of team Australia
    That led his team to failure
    With his lies and his stupid captain’s picks
    All his crew were just as weak
    As he took them up shit creek
    A party of pernicious lying pricks

    Things went from bad to worse
    As they flogged a dying horse
    Till the backbench thought the jockey was to blame
    So they tried to call a spill
    But did not complete the kill
    We were left with just some more of the same

    In the months after the spill
    they went right after Bill
    And they tried to pull another budget con
    And all the ten flag guff
    Was fast running out of puff
    as the polls showed that these lying fools were gone

    Seeing Bronwyn on the take
    Their greed exposed through chopper gate
    The public had concluded they’re the worst
    With a giant bullshit bubble
    Abbott’s mob’s were deep in trouble
    and it was the prick himself who made it burst.

    As the press were asking whether
    this is the worst mob ever
    The voters made their mind up, they must go
    They got out their baseball bats
    For the liberals and the Nats
    At the ballot they would surely deal a blow

    So on the eve of Canning
    Turnbull acted on his planning
    And Abbott, still deluded, got the flick
    After two years of lies and failure
    There was relief across Australia
    As the mad monks mammoth fail had made them sick

    So Abbott’s die was cast
    His use by date had passed
    Soon we saw another chapter in this farce
    They were hoping Malcolm’s words
    Could polish their policy turds
    In a desperate last attempt to save their arse

    Turnbull started off so well
    Saying everything was swell
    What a great time it was to be alive
    All ability and innovation
    and intelligent conversation
    the polls reversed, the party might survive

    Everything was on the table
    Malcom seemed so able
    But pretty soon the cracks began to show
    For him to lead this mob
    He must appease the right nut jobs
    And keep all of the thugs policies on the go

    The voters were surprised
    Turnbull was Abbott in disguise
    Relief turned to dismay, was this a joke
    Different coloured ties
    More smiles but the same old lies
    And slogans served on waffle when he spoke

    Bill Shorten all this while
    Had been working on his style
    And labor had been leading the debate
    Still the press all wrote him off
    They all so admired the Toff
    PM they said was always Turnbull’s fate

    Soon we were having a GST
    Then it was never going to be
    And state taxes lasted all but a day
    Poor decisions were the norm
    As Mal returned to form
    And the polls began to turn the other way

    So Malcolm’s great solution
    Was a double dissolution
    An election that smacked of desperation
    All we hear from the snake oil man
    Is “Jobs and Growth” and “plan”
    So much for intelligent conversation

    So now as I write
    The polls are very tight
    Nobody knows who’ll lead Australia
    Whatever is the score
    One thing that is for sure
    Malcolm and the thug have been a failure.

  11. JeffJL

    Well Roy Morgan got that wrong. Malcolm got 61% of the primary vote, not the 40% odd Roy Morgan were predicting. Are Australians’ playing the polling organisations now?

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