The appointment of RFK jnr to the health portfolio in the Trump administration is sending ripples of joy through the conspiracy theory driven anti-vax crowd. The joy that autism will finally be eliminated because, as every one knows, vaccinations have led to the explosive rise of autism among children.

There is nothing quite as powerful as a good conspiracy theory to drive the population apocalyptic.

Predictably, when I began thinking and researching vaccinations and the link to autism, I got a flood of links to the dangers of vaccination, how all those needles newborns get has led to a spike in autism. On and on it goes, we really should go back to the dark ages, before vaccinations became a thing.

What makes it doubly scary is that tomorrow morning I have a doctor’s appointment, a quick run down on the results of an annual blood test and a second shot in the arm for something or other.

I can feel the autism coming on.

Fear is a wonderful thing.

OK, reality check time.

How come there are now 8.2 billion people alive on earth today compared to about 2 billion a hundred years ago? How come the world population had stayed around 2 billion for several hundred years despite families having far more children than today? A hundred years ago women were having an average of about 8 children, today that figure is about 2 children… and yet the population continues to grow, estimated to peak at around 10 to 11 billion by the turn of this century. Infant mortality was such that of the eight children birthed, on average, five died before they turned five.

There are several factors driving down the birth rate, one is that life has changed very much in the last century or so, life expectancy has changed from 47 years to present day 86 years, infant mortality has changed from 40 per 100 births to less than 4 today.

Some of the reasons for the lower life expectancy was based on the number of infectious diseases which swept through communities, including small pox, measles. mumps, rubella, polio, tetanus, diphtheria, cholera, hepatitis, influenza to name a few. Add to that the occasional epidemic such as the ‘Black Death’, bubonic plague which wiped out almost half the population of Europe from 1346 t0 1353, or more recently the devastation of an ebola outbreak in Liberia a decade ago.

And some of the major changes that have led to longevity have been in health services including vaccinations. There are other factors too, like the reduction of poverty, better infrastructure providing clean water, sewerage, electricity, but for this we focus on the provision and changes in health services.

Why has there been such an increase in the reported rate of autism? Is it because of the vaccinations newborns are subjected to or could there be something else at play?

A couple of things happened, firstly there was a fake article in The Lancet of February 1998 which claimed a link between autism and the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccination given to infants but was retracted and the author de-licensed by the British medical authorities for his deceit and ‘callous disregard’ for children in his care. Those were the early days of the internet and as social media grew in the new century, the article resurfaced and the anti-vax conspiracy grew legs.

The second influencer was the publication of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders which includes a diagnostic list to identify Autism and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity disorder in children, and the checklist is easily accessible on line. So a parent looks at the behaviour of their child, identifies some ‘problematic’ issues as on the DSM checklist and decides the kid must be autistic or ADHD, and the kid was immunised against all sorts of things, so that must be the problem, vaccinations cause autism. And then convinces a doctor to prescribe some mind numbing cure-all to ‘normalise’ the child’s behaviour. Simple really.

(Autism and ADHD share many symptoms.)

R F Kennedy jnr also wants to remove fluoride from drinking water.

I remember years ago when fluoridation of water was commenced. Arguments raged over the perceived benefits and dangers of such a radical move and sceptics here still voice objections, preferring to drink bottled ‘natural spring waters’ marketed by the largest soft drink corporation in the world, paying premium prices for non fluoridated water in disposable plastic bottles.

Yes, fluoride is a dangerous chemical. Used in excess in drinking water or as part of oral health, using toothpaste with fluoride, it can cause dental fluorosis, skeletal fluorosis, arthritis, bone damage, osteoporosis, muscular damage, fatigue, joint related problems and chronicle issues according to the National Centre for Biotechnology Information of the US government.

Used at levels which are higher than recommended, fluoride becomes a problem, however the benefits of fluoride in drinking water, at the minute levels used include better oral health with less tooth decay, preventing cavities which are a common childhood disease. That fluoride reduces tooth decay leading to improved general health outcomes.

Tooth decay has more to do with diet than fluoride or lack of fluoride. Sweet tooth satisfaction with copious amounts of sugary drinks, sweets, chocolates and delicious desserts can quickly overwhelm the benefits of .07ml of fluoride in a litre of drinking water. Doesn’t do much for the blood sugar count either, but that is a separate issue.

The other main health issue Kennedy is noted for is his campaign promoting raw milk instead of pasteurised milk. Likewise here, there is a growing interest in raw milk, citing the dangers of altering a natural product, principally as a marketing tool.

Why was milk pasteurised? Oh, it had something to do with people getting ill and dying from drinking raw milk… and has that problem gone away? Is raw milk healthier now that RFK jnr will head up the US Health department?

Pasteurisation kills harmful bacteria that can lead to diseases such as typhoid fever, tuberculosis, diphtheria, listeriosis and brucellosis. Many of those diseases have virtually disappeared today. Do we want them back?

The power of social media and some of the influencers who peddle their thoughts and fear-mongering are being seen as knowledgable people, the medical profession and pharmaceutical industry are seen as money making organisations whose only desire is to make more money. Cynicism abounds and trust has been eroded, and people put their health and well-being at risk.

It really is time to stop being lazy, absorbing all the easily obtained misinformation and find and apply critical thinking to the health debate. Research a topic, even just a little bit, see if there is some peer reviewed information out there, weigh up the various sources of information before making up your mind.