What will the conservatives campaign on at the next election?
Now that Australians have, depending on where they live, gotten through fires and floods or too many days at the cricket drinking excessively, some will turn their attention to what’s happening over the dunes in the world around them.
It may be too early to discuss such an issue like the next election, but it is worth considering now that Labor has changed its mind on the stage three tax cuts.
Will the Prime Minister go for an early election later this year or wait until 2025?
The earliest date for a regular election is August 3, 2024. The latest it can be held is 27 September 2025. The stakes are high between a man who has broken a promise and another who is the most distrusted politician in the country.
No matter when Albanese chooses to go, it will be another election vital for the country’s future. I say “vital” because the country needs change. Changes that will make for a better society, a fairer one. Fundamental, meaningful changes. First, cab off the rank has to be tax reform, and then it has to be continuous reform. They have started, and Labor is the only party that can bring about the changes, but it needs three terms.
Peter Dutton has already demanded that the Prime Minister call one over Labor’s tax revisions, but that won’t happen.
The Labor Party has skillfully executed a political tactic known as a reverse wedge on the Opposition. This strategy has forced Dutton to agree with the government’s proposed changes, which are aimed at promoting equity. Despite being reluctant, Dutton had no other option but to give in. However, it remains to be seen whether he realises that most Australians aspire for a fairer distribution of resources and opportunities.
Opposing a tax break for every Australian taxpayer while simultaneously demanding that the government take steps to alleviate the burden of living expenses was not only embarrassing but also appeared contradictory. On the other hand, supporting the proposed changes would be seen as hypocritical.
Paul Bongiorno wrote that:
“The redesign of the stage-three tax cuts is a watershed moment in the conversation the nation needs to have over expanding the revenue base to pay for the sorts of things that a modern, healthy, educated, secure and caring nation demands.”
According to research by the Australia Institute, nearly three in five voters across all demographics supported the changes.
Richard Dennis, at the Press Club on Wednesday, 31 January, said that the Albanese government’s decision to change the tax cut was the most honest thing he had seen by an Australian politician for a decade.
So far, in its first term, any agenda Labor may have had toward significant changes to our democracy has been thwarted by a worldwide economic downturn over which they have had little or no control. It has spent much of its first term picking up the mess the conservatives left behind, as duly noted by the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers:
“Upon taking office, the Albanese Labor government inherited not only $1 trillion of coalition debt but also a massive skills deficit. This situation is so dire that according to the OECD Australia is experiencing the second-most severe labour shortage in the developed world.”
The latest inflation figures of 4.1% in the December quarter suggest we have turned the corner and will begin to see interest rates come down this year.
The conservatives will, of course, be subject to the same economic advantages or disadvantages that exist whenever the Prime Minister decides to go to the people. However, a fair assessment looking forward is that inflation will be under control and the economy will be in better shape.
The average person may have a question in mind that is related to the Opposition, its leadership, and its policies for the Australian people. Peter Dutton, the current leader, is not a trusted figure for many, and some may see him as a replica of the former Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. According to some, the Opposition may only have little to offer except for criticism and a lack of constructive policies.
They could hardly, as they had proclaimed in many elections, claim that they are the best managers of money when they left the country a trillion dollars in debt.
Their persistent denial of a climate and energy problem over nearly a decade has also left them in a tough spot. They are now tasked with devising policies that effectively address both issues despite their earlier reluctance to acknowledge the problem. For almost ten years, they refused to admit that there was a problem with our climate and energy. Consequently, they now find it extremely challenging to formulate policies that address both issues effectively.
And all the spooky ultra-right-wing deniers are still there, as are their media supporters.
Again, on economics. It will be challenging putting forward a position of superiority on economics when your leader needs to learn more about the subject.
And it would be tough to say you had an anti-corruption policy when your own party practiced it.
When debating social services, a Royal Commission has found the LNP comprehensibly at fault over Robodebt. It will feature in the campaign. Many protagonists stand for re-election, and others will face a higher court of opinion. Added to the who you trust question is one of greater importance: why are you there?
If you are watching the ABC programme Nemesis, you would have noted that Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop, Mathias Corman, and Peter Dutton all refused to participate. I would suggest at the risk of tarnishing their images any further. If so, you will have concluded, as l did, that the Coalition spent more time on leadership infighting than actual governance. This shone through despite their inability to see that what they were doing was beyond contempt.
Labor can also easily argue away the tax breaks as being not a broken promise but a more equitable share of the pie. The promise is kept, but the configuration is altered.
No doubt, given their expertise in the subject, the conservatives will throw in a scare or two. Still, they could be hit to the boundary without an accompanying truth.
Labor has, to a large degree, restored our trade relationship with China, and other relationships have been repaired. Needless to say, Foreign Affairs is a no-go zone for the LNP unless they intend to shirtfront a few leaders.
Dutton can hardly campaign on his party’s record when in office. In fact, it would be difficult for him to put forward anything that wasn’t touched by corruption.
There is nothing wrong with the narrative of being an innovative country with a creative economy. In fact, it should be a worthwhile pursuit. So Dutton may devise some promise he knows he will never be obliged to keep. By that I mean he may run dead.
There are three problems, though. Firstly, all innovation is generated by education. If Dutton takes the private school’s route, he will be accused of prioritising Christian and private schools. Inevitably, Labor will accuse him of religious preferentialism and class nepotism. Innovation born of educational privilege is a hard sell.
Malcolm Turnbull even once warned:
“I suspect no federal government would retreat from funding and continuing to support the non-government school sector because there would be a concern that they would not get a fair go from state governments who obviously would have a competing interest with their schools.”
Strangely, conservatives have never realised that kids from low socioeconomic backgrounds are our most untapped source of potential growth. They are the most undervalued resource.
My thought for the day
My wife and I, together with other welfare recipients, would like to apologise to Joe Hockey and his government for being such a burden on them. (In remembrance of the 2014 budget.)
Another thought
Promises are always contextual.
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21 comments
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Cool Pete
Return to home page”Strangely, conservatives have never realised that kids from low socioeconomic backgrounds are our most untapped source of potential growth. They are the most undervalued resource.”’
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This is one of your most erudite comments on AIMN. From too long hard experience across all sectors in education, the telling feature is NOT ”the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog”.
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The kids from a single parent family working their way through high school and being actively involved in extra-curricular activities will go a lot further than the middle class spoilt brats expecting the world to be handed to them on a silver platter.
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The education funding ”dilemma” created by Howard & Cronies is readily ”solved” by PAYING THE SAME AMOUNT PER KID TO PARENTS TO USE AT THE EDUCATION (or ”Xhristian” & ROMAN CHILD-MINDING) INSTITUTION OF THEIR CHOICE. Now watch the financially bloated private schools whinge and moan about financial difficulties created by their previous over-spending on third Olympic Pools and Headmaster’s dog kennels. The Vatican will not be pleased at the reduced remittance.
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I look forward to the LIARBRAL$ NOtional$ COALition continuing the ”leadership” of Boofhead Duddo, $us$san LeyZee and Devoid Littleprick at lest until the next feral elections, because they demonstrate their true inabilities every time there is a press conference.
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Getting Australian media to become independent & objective will likely require more independent media like AIMN etc to provide detailed analysis of the machinations of government & corporations.
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The re-jigged Stage 3 Tax Cuts showed that LABOR has the ability & will to overcome the financial mismanagement & corruption created by the COALition. Let the Murdoch Media Monopoly (MMM) squawk in protest ….. Australian voters were the winners!!
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Certainly, Australia voters need at least three more terms of LABOR government to rectify the deliberate damage done by COALition financial incompetence & corruption to the Australian economy and best interests of Australian voters in favour of foreign owned multinational corporations.
As John Hewson has noted in The Saturday Paper :
Peter Dutton will just continue to create the impression, as the election draws nearer, that he will release a raft of policies consistent with his unspecified “vision” for the country.
Dutton will continue to tell people that Labor will roll back the excesses of Negative Gearing and that that will be a bad thing and he will advocate for nuclear power some time in the future and he will give the top end of town a tax break but will not apply any analysis or intellectual rigger to his policies or any costings. After all he is just a Liberal hollow man.
It always seems strange calling these people Liberals, they are not Liberals. As John has indicated, they are Conservative Naysayers. Barnaby splattered on the pavement pissed is a good illustration of the quality of this coalition.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-s-obviously-unwell-barnaby-joyce-filmed-lying-on-canberra-street-20240209-p5f3r0.html
A FINE EXAMPLE OF COALition ”LEADERSHIP” and THE INTERNATIONAL EMBARRASSMENT OF NEW ENGLAND
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13063713/Barnaby-Joyce-Parliament-House-video.html
Barnaby Joyce, our own Bangatart Juiced, is a skinful of excrement posing as vaguely human and decent. He makes mediocrity a high aim, political life a filthy farce, public duty a running ulcer. Those who put him there and keep him there are un Australian filth.
NEC EXACTLY.
TM I could not name one true Liberal from both houses. That is why l rarely use the time.
Indeed, and as for Chalmers’ observation of the OECD ranking on Labour Shortage, the OECD also said (pertaining to fiscal policy):
“On the revenue side, shifting taxes from labour to property and consumption, and reducing tax exemptions would expand the tax base and revenues, and help to make the tax system more supportive of growth. Credible medium-term fiscal frameworks, with clear spending and tax plans to contain public debt whilst preserving the spending needed to support long-term growth and the climate transition, would also help ensure sustainability whilst providing flexibility to respond to future shocks.”
Negative gearing, Capital gains discounts, Franking Credits double-dip, etc etc etc – Little Johnny’s wrecking balls.
Very pleased to hear that the Teals will be completing their research and promulgating their tax reform proposals around mid-year, this should give Labor a pump along to venture further changes – hope springs eternal.
Looking forward to more iterative reforms in the May budget.
As for the LNP they’re tanking and tanked, amongst their naysaying screeching, it is evident they can’t even organize a Beetrooter in a brothel.
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Clakka, “shifting taxes from labour to property and consumption” – reads as property owners passing on any extra costs to renters thus torching inflation; and as for ‘consumption’ – could that be a GST increase? NZ has 15% GST. If the agenda LNP/Labor are working under is to lower the standard of living, upping GST will be on the cards. No probs, legislation will be rigged to mainly affect those on low/middle incomes, not politicians and their sponsors.
“What will the conservatives campaign on at the next election?”
Fear.
Taxes.
Wrecking of the economy.
Even more fear.
Even more taxes.
Even more wrecking of the economy.
So and so forth, with great big extra helpings of FEAR! courtesy of the Rupert/Costello/Stokes main sleaze media.
@Rob, I hear what you say, but note that’s only your version of the ‘read’.
Firstly, I clarify that the OECD statement is for fiscal policies across all developed economies, not just Oz.
I’m not sure of the substance in your statement ” … thus torching inflation …”, and how you arrive at that conclusion.
In Oz, for example, the right attendance to negative gearing and capital gains discounts could well see a sell-off of investment properties, freeing up the availability of dwellings on the market, including for rental – at more affordable prices, with the right tweaks. The franking credit double-dip is ludicrous and utterly inequitous and should be grandfathered out asap.
Consumption tax is the most efficient form of taxation, and shifting the tax burden in that direction does not necessarily mean just raising the % rate across the board, it can be more nuanced, with adjustments to what consumptions are included or excluded. And it is important to note that the OECD also said, amongst the other things that ” … reducing tax exemptions …” would broaden the tax base. I note that Oz has an almost irreconcilable plethora of tax exemptions mainly inequitously focused on higher income earners and corporations, and not available to middle / low income earners, who are struggling and continue to bear a relatively higher tax burden.
@ Clakka: Agreed on all points, especially the impact of grandfathering Negative Gearing on residential housing availability.
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Now what other ”tax exemptions” could be removed to benefit Australian voters – charity status for private schools & churches, especially those responsible for child abuse, fossil fuel rebates to heavy transport companies, fossil fuel exploration exemptions & rebates ….. and the list goes on. Feel free to ad any that I missed.
But equally, what will Labor campaign on? It will be Treasury talking-points. Budget surplus, “controlling inflation”, jobs “growth”, “bigger” pay packets, tax cuts, “textbook” cost of living relief, emissions “reductions”.
It certainly won’t be the massive migration, plummeting productivity, falling household incomes and real wages, historic rental crisis, and world-class housing un-affordability. And neither will the Liberals hold them to account. Duopoly rules OK?
@ SG,
Where you state:
“It certainly won’t be the massive migration, plummeting productivity, falling household incomes and real wages, historic rental crisis, and world-class housing un-affordability.”,
I cannot help but wonder whether you have only been paying any attention to Sky and Murdoch-land trash, and not to what Labor has been doing, consulting on, and legislating on since it came into government in 2022. And whether you have understood the mess caused by LNP rorting and feckless inactivity over the previous decade. Not only has Labor been progressing reforms, but has also progressed clean-up of the LNP mess, amid an horrendous pandemic-induced global inflation and supply / supply-chain nightmare, whilst paying down debt and keeping the economy, to the extent it can, in balance.
Of course everyone would like things to be better, but waving gratuitous, inaccurate and cliched over-blown fairy-wand statements like yours at it just drives fear and anti-democratic destabilization into the uninformed. Perhaps that’s your singular purpose, similar to that of the Duttonate.
“It certainly won’t be …” … what nonsense …How would you know? “Duopoly rules …” … more nonsense.
I wonder if they will campaign on their fiscal and societal masterpiece – robodebt – because if they don’t Labor certainly should.
For once, come the next election, I would like to see Labor go in to it “battle ready” and with a proper “attack strategy”.
For example Spud and Co have been rabbiting on big time about nuclear power, claiming it to be clean and cheap and such. Despite surprisingly not even doing it yet Labor need to be ready with the numbers to attack such claims – like telling everyone SMRs (small modular reactors) are not even a thing yet, they are still in development, and failing miserably particularly on cost; like explaining to everyone that it takes around 20 or more years to get one up and running; like asking everyone would they liike to live next to a nuclear reactor, and where Spud is going to put them all; like what happens to the environment while they continue with fossil fuels waiting for the nuclear to be built; like what is he going to do with the nuclear waste; like just who is going to pay for all these SMRs; etc.
Labor may not like attacking with negativities like the opposition do but I seriously think, to have any chance of winning against them and the MSM, the time has come whereby they must.
He will go with labor’s economy, communism and albo’s referendum.
The papers, morning shows and radio will go with anything real or imaginary.
The loonies will quietly lie on climate
Yaawwnn…
Ickle Jeremy goes, “Grar…grar…me tough.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-11/tasmanian-premier-actively-considering-early-state-election/103453436
P Duddy reciting the Liberal prayer before a meeting:
“Oh, Rupert, we call upon your divine blessing that we might shit upon our enemies.
Oh, Gina and Twiggy and Cotello and Stokes we call upon you all to bless us with money from heaven to help us smite our enemies.
Know kneel down and spread thy cheeks and open your pockets for the ambrosia from the gods my brethren.
Blessed be thy Cayman Islands bank accounts.
I declare this meeting open.”
https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/52420a22b0dbd8b010908393fff72a69?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&cropH=2813&cropW=5000&xPos=0&yPos=0&width=862&height=485
Today, I heard him doing a rabbott by not give anything remotely like an answer just saying labor is wrong and we will get it right.
I have been watching Nemesis, and Tone the Botty’s refusal to participate begs one obvious question: WHY? Tone the Botty was so arrogant and so delusional that he claimed that he would have won against Bill Shorten in 2016 and made the preposterous statement that his “Prime Ministership” was a victim of Malcolm Turnbull’s “overweening desire to be PM.” Yes, Tone the Botty and Malcolm Turnbull were bitter rivals, but it was Tone the Botty’s incompetence and inconsistency that caused him to lose the leadership of the Liberal Party, and there can be no doubt that Tone the Botty was still bitter when he lost the seat of Warringah to Zali Steggall. When I say Tone the Botty was inconsistent, when it emerged that Bronwyn Bishop had chartered a chopper to fly from Melbourne to Geelong for a Liberal Party function, he did not act decisively and sack her as Speaker.
Potty Boy Dutton is a carbon copy of Tone the Botty without a wasted Rhodes Scholarship behind him! He is now farting that if the Liberals are re-elected, he will roll back the “Right To Disconnect” for workers over the weekend!