By Christopher Kennedy
Good money has been placed on the USA descending into civil war. My money, (all of $5 so far) is on America falling apart. So taking this scenario into account at what stage do we understand the Australian options a bit better?
The question is how he will effect Australia Asian affairs? An increasing Russian military presence in Indonesia? A cavalier attitude to the independence of Taiwan? An economic fight with China or an acquiescing to Chinese plans on the South China Sea?
We have to start seeing every problem as an opportunity. To do that requires an independent foreign policy; which may be thrust upon us.
Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese is correct not to recall Kevin Rudd from the Ambassadorship in Washington.
Rudd is our most experienced China watcher when the relationship between China and Washington is so important to Australia.
It would be criminal not to leave him in one of the front seats of this unfolding drama. Leaving Rudd in position also sends a clear message – we are independent with our interests placed first.
It is easy to see AUKUS not going anywhere with Labor governments in both Australia and England. It would be nice to get the money back for the submarines and buy some Japanese subs. But that is not going to happen. Or maybe it will, you don’t know with Trump.
Soon things will be asked of Australia by both the Chinese and the USA. We must consider all prospects wisely. America is not Australia: China is not Australia.
The statement ‘men will send their sons to die for democracy’ must be considered. Would you send your sons to die for Trump? For Xi Jinping of China? Neither seem particularly interested in democracy.
If the USA takes the hard line against China’s industries then we can expect the Chinese to ask us to intervene on their behalf. And considering they are our major customer for our goods then we are obliged to do so.
If, on the other hand the USA asks us to cut supplies of iron ore to China, an act of war on our behalf; the answer should be no. As should be our answer to China in attempts to alienate or harass the USA should it fall into open civil war.
Which brings us back to the point, what to do if the USA falls into civil war? What can we do? It’s an interesting proposition.
The last time the USA had a civil war was the South against the North, slavery verses freedom. It was pretty simple. Now it’s Trumpites against the rest. And it would be a drone war as well. Really messy.
Not that it matters about the technology, with the USA out of action the rest of the world would go through a horrendous economic downturn. But we will survive, so long as the war doesn’t go nuclear.
It will be a time of generals and billionaires able to afford to pay armies. Like ancient Rome.
The question is what are those armies going to do? Invade Canada? Mexico? Justifying paying a large army is difficult if it’s not doing anything. The space race may be where it is at, given that Canada and Mexico could find themselves with many friends should they be attacked. Huge mercenary armies are really not liked.
For Australia, the first thing we should do in these circumstances is up the royalties on Australian raw materials. We are going to have to pay for a navy and army that protects our interests in Asia, if the USA is not providing the protection.
On the upside Australia is in a fairly peaceful part of the world. Indonesia would be a problem in a general breakdown of economic dominance of the USA and it’s fall, the seas around the country will be full of pirates for years, yet Japan and the other North East Asian countries would be set, on present record, to help us with that.
But will the country of Indonesia survive the economic malaise of USA going down? It’s a good question. Indonesia nearly fell into full-on civil war during the Asian Financial Crisis. Muslim against Christian, Indonesian against Chinese Indonesian, moderates against extremists and so forth.
The present ruler of Indonesia, president Prabowo Subianto, is currently running between China and USA trying to keep things on an even keel, pretty much like everyone else with strong economic ties to both countries.
His presidency is based on the strong leader appearance. He is in a position where diplomacy is necessary; will he be able to keep his country together in economic storms? This is a good question; no-one is able to foretell at this present time.
So, in order of importance for Australia, the safety and security of the Asian region is of upmost importance.
We can’t really do anything to stop the USA falling apart but we need to be prepared.
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