By Christopher Kennedy
Good money has been placed on the USA descending into civil war. My money, (all of $5 so far) is on America falling apart. So taking this scenario into account at what stage do we understand the Australian options a bit better?
The question is how he will effect Australia Asian affairs? An increasing Russian military presence in Indonesia? A cavalier attitude to the independence of Taiwan? An economic fight with China or an acquiescing to Chinese plans on the South China Sea?
We have to start seeing every problem as an opportunity. To do that requires an independent foreign policy; which may be thrust upon us.
Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese is correct not to recall Kevin Rudd from the Ambassadorship in Washington.
Rudd is our most experienced China watcher when the relationship between China and Washington is so important to Australia.
It would be criminal not to leave him in one of the front seats of this unfolding drama. Leaving Rudd in position also sends a clear message – we are independent with our interests placed first.
It is easy to see AUKUS not going anywhere with Labor governments in both Australia and England. It would be nice to get the money back for the submarines and buy some Japanese subs. But that is not going to happen. Or maybe it will, you don’t know with Trump.
Soon things will be asked of Australia by both the Chinese and the USA. We must consider all prospects wisely. America is not Australia: China is not Australia.
The statement ‘men will send their sons to die for democracy’ must be considered. Would you send your sons to die for Trump? For Xi Jinping of China? Neither seem particularly interested in democracy.
If the USA takes the hard line against China’s industries then we can expect the Chinese to ask us to intervene on their behalf. And considering they are our major customer for our goods then we are obliged to do so.
If, on the other hand the USA asks us to cut supplies of iron ore to China, an act of war on our behalf; the answer should be no. As should be our answer to China in attempts to alienate or harass the USA should it fall into open civil war.
Which brings us back to the point, what to do if the USA falls into civil war? What can we do? It’s an interesting proposition.
The last time the USA had a civil war was the South against the North, slavery verses freedom. It was pretty simple. Now it’s Trumpites against the rest. And it would be a drone war as well. Really messy.
Not that it matters about the technology, with the USA out of action the rest of the world would go through a horrendous economic downturn. But we will survive, so long as the war doesn’t go nuclear.
It will be a time of generals and billionaires able to afford to pay armies. Like ancient Rome.
The question is what are those armies going to do? Invade Canada? Mexico? Justifying paying a large army is difficult if it’s not doing anything. The space race may be where it is at, given that Canada and Mexico could find themselves with many friends should they be attacked. Huge mercenary armies are really not liked.
For Australia, the first thing we should do in these circumstances is up the royalties on Australian raw materials. We are going to have to pay for a navy and army that protects our interests in Asia, if the USA is not providing the protection.
On the upside Australia is in a fairly peaceful part of the world. Indonesia would be a problem in a general breakdown of economic dominance of the USA and it’s fall, the seas around the country will be full of pirates for years, yet Japan and the other North East Asian countries would be set, on present record, to help us with that.
But will the country of Indonesia survive the economic malaise of USA going down? It’s a good question. Indonesia nearly fell into full-on civil war during the Asian Financial Crisis. Muslim against Christian, Indonesian against Chinese Indonesian, moderates against extremists and so forth.
The present ruler of Indonesia, president Prabowo Subianto, is currently running between China and USA trying to keep things on an even keel, pretty much like everyone else with strong economic ties to both countries.
His presidency is based on the strong leader appearance. He is in a position where diplomacy is necessary; will he be able to keep his country together in economic storms? This is a good question; no-one is able to foretell at this present time.
So, in order of importance for Australia, the safety and security of the Asian region is of upmost importance.
We can’t really do anything to stop the USA falling apart but we need to be prepared.
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‘Falls apart’??? Where is it together, now???
Biden has been an abject failure. So bad that it is unlikely trump could do worse.
Trump’s agenda suits the media, suits the mentality of the poor end of town who will, in their ignorance, freely support him despite their problem. Those who will benefit will urge him to bigger and ‘better for the rich’ endeavours and he will keep Rupert, Canada, Europe, India and thepoms happy and who gives a rat’s arse about the rest. Isolation and adulation will make the septics think he MACA and he could easily get his face on a new mountain.
But I am hopeful that he will make a monumental cockup and make him wish god didn’t save him.
The problem with a second civil war in the USA is this. While there may have been people in the north of the USA who were racist and didn’t have an issue with slavery, a second civil war may not be along state lines, as there are Trumpians in blue states and anti-Trumpians in red states.
Australia NEEDS to be aware of one thing. While China may not have multi-party parliamentary democracy, a Trumpian USA would not be compatible with a liberal democracy like Australia. If Australia banned the sale of iron ore to China on the USA’s say-so, it would be economic suicide!
At some point, however, Australia would have to take a stance and a side, it can’t always be neutral, and that side may well be that of China, unless it attacks Taiwan or Japan.
I agree. Japan is the worlds third largest economy and along with Australia, NZ, South Korea and Taiwan providing the brunt of democracy in East Asia.
wam:
Your ignorance of what Biden has actually done with the USAnian economy is matched only by that of far too many seppoes. He hasn’t been perfect and there are many aspects of his foreign policy that are vile, but he’s done far more for his nation than most modern presidents.
You need to find more accurate reports of his achievements than the Trump bootlicking MSM bubble.
If.., if the USA falls apart, and it has always had its north, south, west “subdivisions” with different attitudes, then strong, active, ugly, divided, resentful pockets will remain. Modern media, the Big Shits as well as the grubowned social media, are there to play all hands for a winning, while the big moneyed Supershits under Trump will scrape gouge, cut, slice, pocket, hoard and bury, now, while the getting is good.The old democratic loving citizen deserving of support and representation is no longer.., does not exist, is ignorable, avoidable, expendable and frankly unable to buy anyeffingthing.
There really is very little evidence (or likelihood) of a civil war in the US.
There’s plenty of disharmony, unrest, and protests, all are likely to increase.
Such things happen in a democracy.
My view is that there is likely to be 4 years of chaotic administration, pressure on public institutions to conform to the Trump agenda, lots of blaming and a huge volume of demented, self serving speeches by Trump.
The difference between this time and 4 years ago is that the Democrats accept they lost, and the loss was almost entirely a result of their own decisions and the arrogance of Biden in seeking to hold on
The next 4 years will be a very bumpy ride, but that’s not a civil war.
Oh the problem of the what ifs….
Face that when it happens, in the mean time just check to see if the sun rose this morning.
If it did, it’s a pretty good chance it will rise tomorrow too.
In the mean time, we also need to check the trading arrangements we have with the other 96% of the world which is not maybe descending into civil war. Or see what we can do to help those who suffering because of actual, not a what if, war, to consider perhaps being a little more humane to those who are displaced by war… not obsess over their religion or the way they dress, offer support, food, shelter, safety.