The Pre-Election MYEFO Update: Labor’s Scrutiny Fully Justified

Image: The Monthly Covering the Treasurer’s 2021-22 Budget

By Denis Bright

Without access to the vast resources of the federal LNP in Government, Labor has raised sobering realities to deflate the political excesses of the last Mid-Year Economic and Financial Outlook (MYEFO) before the 2022 election.

MYEFO still provides a window of political opportunities for the Morrison Government as economic indicators show a temporary rebound in the September Quarter in GDP growth, a temporary growth in capital expenditure in mining on real estate and property markets and improvements to business confidence as the holiday season approaches after a lengthy period of COVID-lockdown.

A December Quarter rebound is likely to be a feature of a March election campaign. It is due for release on 2 March 2022.

MYEFO has Machiavellian elements. The most obvious concern is the $16 billion set aside for unannounced election promises as released during the heat of the election campaign as in 2019 in electorates under siege from Labor.

There is also the obvious repeated ruse of our official unemployment figure in the Treasurer’s media statements to talk up MYEFO. The 4.6 per cent unemployment rate needs more qualifiers. Australians from all age groups on training programmes or working on a trial basis for employers do not feature in the official jobless data. Adding the underemployed to the official jobless rate, translates to 13.1 per cent of the workforce. The situation is worse in the most disadvantaged federal electorates.

Besides these obvious lapses are the wildly optimistic assumptions about the post-COVID recovery in the Australian and global economies despite the global shadow posed by the Omicron variant with its record level of cases in Britain.

The Treasury is also over-optimistic about economic relations with China and Hong Kong despite months of sabre-rattling and patrols by Australia through the disputed waters of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits:

In China, GDP is forecast to grow by 8 per cent in 2021 before moderating to 5 per cent in 2022, reflecting the strong recovery to date. Growth has eased recently owing to a slowdown in the property sector and the impact of multiple provincial virus outbreaks on consumption. Despite a high vaccination rate, China has continued to pursue an elimination strategy, imposing aggressive local containment measures and strict international border controls to suppress and limit outbreaks

A third of Australian trade also plies these disputed maritime routes. MYEFO also notes that Australian deposits in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which help to fund China’s Belt and Road Investment is currently running at $4 billion. Former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello was a member of the International Advisory Council of the China Investment Corporation (CIC) between 2014 and 2018. The AFR announced on 26 August that Australia had just withdrawn substantial amounts of Australian Future Fund Investments in the CIC to support the sabre-rattling campaigns against our strongest trading partner.

All this suggests that the federal LNP is playing domestic politics in its strategic disputes with China that cuts Australia off from profitable investment partnerships within Australia and in the global economy.

Restrictions on overseas investment on security grounds have contributed to the downward trends in investment flows on the LNP’s long financial watch since 2013. Australian net capital inflows have never fully recovered from the GFC on the RBA’s latest chart series:

 

 

Current capital flow data is worse than the RBA charts disclose because the resultant investment is highly concentrated in the mining, real estate and property sectors which make little contribution to the building of a more sustainable and diversified economy. Labor shares Peter Costello’s enthusiasm as Chair of the Future Fund in his 2020-21 Annual Report:

As a result of the Board’s careful long-term positioning, the Future Fund has generated a 10-year return of 10.1% per annum against a target of 6.1% per annum. Since inception, investment returns have added $136.3 billion to the original contributions from the Government.

At 30 June 2021 the Board of Guardians invested over $245 billion across the six public asset funds for which it is responsible for the Commonwealth Government. Each fund has exceeded its target return over every time-period.

The Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF) generates earnings to provide grants to support medical research and medical innovation. The MRFF delivered a return of 10.9% in 2020–21 and was valued at $22.0 billion as at 30 June 2021.

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Land and Sea Future Fund returned 13.9% for the year, taking its value to $2.2 billion. The Future Drought Fund and Emergency Response Fund have also performed well, delivering returns of 14.0% and 13.9% per annum respectively.

The Disability Care Australia Fund also continued to perform in line with its Mandate, delivering a return of 0.4%.

The opening up of new subsidiaries of the Future Fund and state-controlled investment funds to corporate hedge fund capital avoids fractious debates about additional taxation burdens. Labor’s National Policy mentions investment seventy times. Sceptical constituents might well ask for more details on the origin of this investment capital. More specific mention of investment options has come with the release of Labor’s affordable housing agenda:

An Albanese Labor Government will create a $10 billion off-budget Housing Australia Future Fund to build social and affordable housing and create thousands of jobs now and in the long term. Each year investment returns from the Housing Australia Future Fund will be transferred to the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) to pay for social and affordable housing projects. Over the first 5 years the investment returns will build around:

20,000 social housing properties.

4,000 of the 20,000 social housing properties will be allocated for women and children fleeing domestic and family violence and older women on low incomes who are at risk of homelessness.

10,000 affordable housing properties for frontline workers.

A Social and Affordable Housing Fund (SAHF) is operated by the NSW Government. A proportion of the investment returns will fund annual service payments that will reward community housing providers over 25-years to bridge the gap between rental revenue and operating costs. These are far from being radical initiatives and stake out a broad support base that existed prior to the Labor Split of the 1950s.

In The Boom-and-Bust Traditions of Conservative leaders, MYEFO conceals the likelihood of a near trillion-dollar public debt in 2024-25 as private sector investment falters while government spending programmes move southwards after the election to reduce the economic boost from deficit spending which has contributed to favourable short-term MYEFO indicators.

I hear the confidence of Bill Hayden in the enthusiastic responses of Dr. Jim Chalmers to the current MYEFO. The adjacent seat of Oxley became a safe Labor seat for the first time after the defeat of the Liberal Health Minister in 1961. Being taken for granted, both then and now, raises Labor’s enthusiasm for the possibility of a change of government this time around despite all the media hype in MYEFO and in the future December Quarter economic indicators.

This public relations advertisement warns everyone about life delivering curved balls during the cricket season. Take good advice from leaders who are on our side is already a strong feature of Labor’s media agendas. This style of narrative advertising could be broadened with inputs from other cross-sectional characters who are committed to level-headed critical policies that are appropriate for a middle-ranking Australian economy with a still underdeveloped financial sector.

This would be a variation of the It’s Time Advertising from 1972. This campaign was challenged fiercely by the Federal LNP. Labor’s victories in twelve new seats were partially offset by losses to the LNP in Bendigo, Forrest, Stirling and Sturt. Out of this mix, Labor secured the seat of Cook which is Scott Morrison’s current seat.

State of the art advertising can attract attention and fire the appetite for change over that conventional wisdom offered by the LNP to justify more market ideology and militarism to worsen the Australian social divide. Readers might take a few minutes to evaluate this style of the public announcement by checking the You Tube Channel.

Narrative advertising should be endorsed by members of Labor’s Shadow Ministry, high profile candidates and popular Australians as in 1972.

A call to electoral enrolments is the first step in getting sceptical potential constituents onside before the rolls close in early 2022 as the voting returns in many Labor heartland electorates were unbelievably soft at the last election.

 

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57 Comments

  1. Thanks, Denis, A scary start, informative explanations in the middle and a hopeful end.
    The voters who need labor are the target for scaring by scummo’s cash.
    Sadly the adage of the devil you know is strong because many do not know any more than what these devils say they do and say what labor will do.
    The lnp deviously change devils each election. 2022 will be the first conservative PM, since the lying rodent, to face his second election and he deserves howard’s fate but christine’s cash is a powerful asset and rupert’s media lies as a matter of course.
    Albo needs a grassroots campaign to allay fears, get them back on labor’s track and into the polling booths.

  2. I’m sure that somewhere in the mid-year fiscal update Frydenberg apologised for bungling the Jobkeeper handout and the $6.2 Billion that went to companies who did not meet the criteria for Jobkeeper and whose revenues did not diminish as a result of COVID.

    How could I have missed that ?

  3. A slut will do anything for money and notice. The unfortunate ones, often women, were “forced” into ways of life that had slutting as a preference to worse. There have been many ugly rich sluts, often heirs and heiresses of no known worth personally. But, life itself has become very slutty for too many unfortunates, and, if one wishes to be a keen journalist these days, one must work for the imperious filth of some biggy who wants fuhreristic control. Murdoch gets a huge lineup of supine, compliant, wannabenoticed scribblers and yabberers, never running out. The real religion today is Sluttyanity, with serving, loyalty, pronation, Yass boss attitudes. Most of us most of the time must conform, must obey, must go along. I expect possible elimination for being resentful, disobedient, strident. It’s no good, being relatively alone in a world of gimmicks, goods, waste, pollution, deception, slyness and the odd little lie. Soon, existence in a “western” type consumer excess, corporate crooked controlling, bent, deceptive, double crossing, clown led world will be hopelessly distasteful, as it is under a Morrison poxplague.

  4. Denis, thanks for another insightful summary of the MYEFO and it’s implications for the pending 2022 federal election.

  5. Claiming to be On Your Side is an essential Liberal and Far Right Political Strategy which has been applied across the generations here and overseas.

  6. The political class must do more to inspire the electorate. State of the art communication must become Labor’s forte.

  7. Jim Chartmers represents a Labor heartland electorate and seems to have the best Labor vote north of Greater Sydney and Newcastle. Meticulous research as usual Denis.

  8. The LNP is ahead in almost every booth on the Gold Coast and that secure vote affects the Senate Result which reduced Labor to one senate spot last time. 2022 is a real challenge with all those tax-payer funded mail outs and calendars from LNP members telling us to be happy and obedient.

  9. Scott Morrison has his eyes on a guided Australian democracy in which disadvantaged people surrender their rights to the LNP and his well resourced far-right allies. The question raised by Denis’ article is: Can he be stopped? If the polls got really bad, I expect that he would resign rather than face defeat.

  10. Thanks, Denis.
    I wish I understood it all! But going on what I did understand, MYEFO is spinning like a top.

    Phil,

    Please don’t use the word, ‘slut’ in this way. I’m probably not the only woman here who has ever been ‘slut-shamed’. And what’s more, when pejoratives, like ‘slut’ and ‘c..t’ are applied more widely, the suggestion is that the behaviour concerned is somehow like the behaviour of some women, or in the case of ‘c..t’, all women.

    In the particular case of the word, ‘slut’, you’re using a term used to diminish certain women who might, or might not be ‘sluts’, whatever a ‘slut’ might be… A woman/girl who might have been taken advantage of? A woman/girl who has not had the support she needed, and has lost her way? A woman/girl whose blouse is too low-cut, skirt too short? I could go on and on…

    Please don’t do it. What the ‘f..k!?!

  11. Kate, I assure you I was not even thinking of women, nor what they might do or why, for most of the s—s I picture now are men, (Rupert??) It is an old english word referring to the desire to obtain enough money and notice to survive and get on, so I apologise to you and any lady who has been badly treated, by men in particular. In fact, I sympathise with the position of those who must so strive, for we have all been robbed by the appropriations of conquerors, nobility, enclosure lords, etc. None of your quite evocative about “whatever a s— might be” was how I thought, so, no more from me. (shut up you cranky old bastard.)

  12. Burger and Fries hasn’t left anything in the kitty..for an emergency..like..the pandemic we’re in now.

    A trillion dollars in debt, they can never claim to be better economic managers.

    Flatline wages (in my case, regressing for three years) . I put up my hand for a wage increase ( you know, I now run the show, don’t get fully paid for overtime, take work home, supervise more people, do more technical stuff, take more responsibility etc..etc..) and I was in no uncertain terms told if I want a payrise, leave. It is the same for many, yet they are about to crank open the immigration spigots again and saturate Australia with more low skilled immigrants and rent-a-degree applicants. Do we really need more expert hand car wash personnel from the sub-continent? All in the face of so many unknowns and unknown unknowns?

    I see a disaster unfolding. Omicron.

    NSW has opened up and made mask wearing more a personal statement – for the clinical hypochondriacs or bedwetters only, in the face of a massive new covid variant threat and skyrocketing cases in the premier state.

    Prediction – we are stuffed.

    The Gaslighter in chief is stuffed (along with what will be left of the right).
    Perotet is gonna be a one gig wonder.
    Albo ‘aint up tp it.

    Where we go from there in this brave new world I’ll leave up to your imagination, my imagination is just too scary.

  13. Phil,

    Your etymology of the word, ‘slut’ is quite a bit dodgy. However, whatever the word might have meant in Old or Middle English, it now refers to a woman or girl of slatternly habits, or, more commonly, a woman or girl whose sexuality might be considered ‘loose’.

    In my lifetime, I’ve never heard or seen the word applied to a man. (Although I can well imagine it might have its uses among gay men.) I have also never, ever seen or heard it used to refer to ‘the desire to obtain enough money and notice to survive’.

  14. Well said, Kate,
    I didn’t have the guts to call my shame at the words.
    Most men vary the meaning ‘c’ by modulating the voice or from the adjectives used. These functions are not available to either of the ‘s..t’ descriptors
    However, the use of words depicting women as sex objects is unwarranted and should be called in the same way as bullying. That statement attracts the most ‘you fuken commie politically correct arsehole’ type responses.
    The other with negative answers is the special walk of models. Sex sells????

  15. Well, Kate lives a sheltered life, never heard the word slut used to describe a man or his proclivities, seems keen to keep her diet of outrage pills on hand waiting for the moment and then that wanker, wam, or billy is it, Corvus knows you well, weighs in, for fuck sake, put your reading and comprehension glasses on. What you need to ask yourselves is, (a) do I mean what I say, do I say what I mean, am I stirring the pot, (b) I have idle moments to fill and this is how I choose to use them, (c) that I do actually mean what I say and think you are both bullshit. Bring on your outrage, hammer me with your truth, bludgeon me with your justifications. Really, Kate, because you, I repeat, you, have never heard that word slut applied to a man does not mean it has never happened. It’s a big world, dudes, lots of shit happens that we are ignorant of, doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen.

  16. Vikingduk,

    You say, ‘Really, Kate, because you, I repeat, you, have never heard that word slut applied to a man does not mean it has never happened. It’s a big world, dudes, lots of shit happens that we are ignorant of, doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen.’

    It might have happened – indeed it did happen on this very thread. A misuse of the word.

    Why don’t you look up the dictionary meaning of the word, ‘slut’? And, yes, when I see something that looks like a denigration of women, I am, if not always outraged, at least concerned. (Depending on the circs.)

    Actually, I have no memory of ever having used the word, ‘slut’ myself to describe any woman.

  17. That’s a bit below the belt, Vd.

    I’ve never heard of it used to label a man, and I can assure you that I haven’t led a sheltered life.

    To run Kate down like that – a person you know nothing about – is poor form.

  18. I repeat my apology for offence, though the word was used in one narrow correct manner. (I taught english for over fifty years) So, although I was thinking of Morrison, Joyce, Porter, also Johnson, Trump, Murdoch, also, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, etc, it was insensitive.

  19. Vikingduk,

    It isn’t a bandwagon. It’s an issue – an issue that needs our attention. These are things that matter.

    When I was a secondary school kid, long, long ago, we were introduced to the delights of debating. The classic topic was, ‘The word is mightier than the sword’. I never got to debate that particular topic. (I seem to remember ‘Australia’s Role in the Commonwealth’ with some embarrassment. I did not cover myself with glory.)

    My concern ever since then, though, has been about language. After child-raising, and caring for the people around me who have occasionally needed care from me, the state of the world, and so on, language has been the major concern of my life. That doesn’t make me an expert – certainly not an ‘expert’ whose opinions are beyond debate. It just makes me a person who loves and respects language, and is aware of the damage that language can cause. As they say in the classics, ‘Loose Lips Sink Ships’.

    If I could resurrect that old debating topic and re-frame it, it would be something like, ‘The word is more dangerous than the sword’.

    I think most of us here are aware of the harm that words can do in the big P Political sphere. (Let me just mention Morrison, Trump.) But that harm is potentially and actually everywhere.

    I would dare anyone to suggest that gendered language, when used to denigrate, has more often been used to harm men than women.

  20. I made the mistake here once of suggesting someone was drunk, and I wish I hadn’t.

    I later learned that this particular person had finally beaten an alcohol addition which he had fought for decades. My accusation, thus, was inappropriate and insensitive.

    We don’t know who we’re talking to here. We don’t know each other’s stories. All we know is that we’re on the same side. Let’s stand together… not apart.

  21. You guys are so predictable, bait the water with an outrageous opinion, a different opinion, a wrong word choice and see the monkeys run. By the by, why did the liar from the shire and his cheese and kisses need the security detail to clear the area so these pious pare could have their photo op/ pay their respects at the Tasmanian tragedy? Mourners watched silently from across the road as the smirking jerk and the misses displayed sadness.

    Whatever you had to say, Kate, I really can’t be bothered reading, I think I need to find somewhere else to play.

  22. Vikingduk.

    You said it: ‘Whatever you had to say, Kate, I really can’t be bothered reading, I think I need to find somewhere else to play.’

    It’s not a game. It’s serious, and you’re not helping. I think you might be right, though – It might be time for you to find somewhere (else) to ‘play’, When all else fails, though, advice to us all, be sure to ‘do no harm’.

    Nice try at deflection. The PM behaved despicably. But not relevant to the current discussion.

  23. Vikingduk, I heard about that; Morrison’s goons clearing the mourners away from the path so his Lordship could storm his way through. If I was a family member of one of the deceased I would have stood my ground. That prick would have had to walk around me.

    On the other issue, let it go. You’re a popular commenter here but in my opinion you went a bit too far. Take it on the chin and let’s focus on fighting Tories.

  24. Vikingduck,

    “Whatever you had to say, Kate, I really can’t be bothered reading, I think I need to find somewhere else to play.”

    That’s petulant and childish. I thought you were better than temper tantrums, but it seems I might be wrong. As the adage sort of goes: Grin and bear it then move on.

  25. Thanks, Michael.

    It’s not just you and me, though. That way lies despondency. I reckon there are loads of readers here who may have chosen not to take part in the discussion that has upset some of us overnight, for all sorts of reasons. I don’t always have the time/energy myself to take part in all the goings-on here, or even most of them.

    One of the subjects that I haven’t touched on in this particular thread is the fact that you and your friends have gone to great lengths to provide this website. And you continue to serve with your constant care and monitoring. It grieves me to see people ‘taking advantage’, and I really don’t want to be one of them.

    This is not the time for mucking around. Our nation and our planet are in dire need. We have some people here who are truly gifted in the art of invective, and I can see that there is a role for it. But let’s apply our invective judiciously, where it might do some good.

    Meanwhile, let’s get on with our job of making the world a far better place than it is now. It’s imperative.

  26. What annoys me about the word slut is it is never applied to me for the same behaviour. When it comes to men, they are admired for sowing wild oats. Women are shunned by so-called decent society forever, never to be brides of the men who used them.

  27. RW. Quite the opposite.

    Cb is clear and cogent as opposed to the repetitive slutty trolls.

    Cb defined trolls earlier, yet we still have “loonies” defying the unbiased, independent and informative media platform logo.

    “Slutty = provocative in a way that is considered bad taste”.

  28. Oh dear, I missed a bit of a barney. Sorry for not being around to back you up, Kate.

    The word “slut” can be used for any person who … shall we say overindulges (by general social standards) in certain behaviour; we sometimes call someone with a lust for publicity a “‘media tart” or “fame whore”; similar meaning, similar use.
    But, as Florence said, it is never applied to (straight, cis) men in the same way it is applied to others. He is a pantsman, a stud, a playboy, a legend; she is a slut, a tart, the town bike.

    The way it was used here by Phil, yes that grated. Felt wrong and out of place because, while technically an accurate use of the word, it ignores the enormous social baggage that accompanies it. Glad he can see the problem there.
    A couple of other commentators, however …

  29. Slut or loonie?
    Supposing I choose to adopt the word ‘sluts’ as my own pet term for a political party and, by association, anyone I perceive or suspect as having affiliation with that party or it’s ideologies?
    Could I then formulaicly cut & paste repetitious ranting spiels about ‘sluts’ across multiple threads?
    Or is insinuation of slatternly behavior deemed more offensive than implication of mental illness?

    Ps, vale vikingduk, I hope your Valkyrie’s health improves.

  30. Respecting sensitivity, I remain sorry for starting something madly nomadic, as I scribble in less than a minute, move on, must edit more responsibly thus. I was angrily thinking of men in politics who bend over for imperious donors, a plague I hate. I never call or think about women at all in that way, as men, (we) are just as worse and have no rights to safe hypocrisy.

  31. It’s OK, Phil. No need to keep apologising. Mistake made, acknowledged and hopefully avoided in future, end of.

    cb:
    It isn’t about “insinuations of slatternly behaviour”. It’s about the centuries of judgment and condemnation and belittlement, always unequally applied.
    As Solzhenitsyn once wrote “You call a man ‘pig’ often enough and he’ll end up grunting”. Blokes don’t get that sort of judgment. They’re often actually praised and admired for it, but if you aren’t a bloke the term is used against you.

    Maybe you’re just on the wrong side of the border to understand the issue. And you can’t really ‘reclaim’ or reinterpret a word that has not historically been used against you or a group to which you belong. Whichever way you want to use it, it is not going to mean the same thing to most of your audience.

  32. Phil,

    leefe is right. You clearly had no intention of giving offence. Whatever offence might have been intended, it certainly wasn’t from you.

  33. OK leefe, this loonie loony will say no more about sluts.
    Apparently the gratuitous repeat use of that deliberately insulting term causes anger and disrupts discussion, and we don’t want that now, do we?

  34. If there are terms that some find offensive, like sluts or loonies, surely we can use something else?

    Kind of like finding another date to celebrate Australia?

    I don’t think any of the people commenting here have bad intentions.

  35. KL,
    I acknowledge that there are far more apt and less deliberately offensive terms than ‘loones’ and ‘sluts’ that could and should be used in preference.
    As for intentions, I reckon they are best demonstrated by patterns of action.
    If, despite both polite and angry objections from multiple parties, I persisted in self-indulgently dropping the term ‘sluts’ into each and every discussion thread for the next few years, would I still deserve the benefit of doubt?

  36. I understand your point. My strategy is to not bother reading repetitious rants purely designed to get a reaction. There are lots of people willing to have a genuine discussion about the state of affairs.

  37. The word is objectionable, just as loonie is objectionable.
    Your word, Viking Duck is never acceptable.
    My word has a positive application and historical credibility.
    Recently the ‘loonies’ lost credibility to become an aggressive pragmatic power chasing party.
    Every green, small darwin pond, I have met personally, in the last 10 years, has been unrelated to the greens of the 60s, 70s and 80s and have been nothing like our resident flora and fauna green and his green supporters, Kaye and lord. Both of whom, I wish would acknowledge the diludbrabsimkims actions and, the two major decisions of 2009 and 2013, as being disastrous to Australia and labor. They may also support the premise that the modern greens should accept responsibility for the consequences of such decisions.
    ps a lot of meanings to ‘vale’ OK?

  38. KL
    Whatever works for you.

    For myself, I struggle with some serious anger issues so I will be giving the AIMN a miss for the forseeable.

    Corvus out.

  39. Kate, I have been inconsequential on this site for years. However, I am as passionate as anyone here about the need to rid ourselves of the current lying, inept and dangerous government. As for corvus, lord, kaye, et al, they are content to allow the modern greens to ride on the back of previous green ideals and principles without disclosure of the results booby’s and christine’s support for the rabbott. To me that is dishonest and reflects the bandit’s philosophy and ambition supported by some of the other green boys.

  40. wam,

    I am fully aware of your grievances against the Greens for a vote they took 12 years ago and your annoyance with those who felt it important to oppose the Adani mine.

    Your constant fixation on it is stultifying. Many people have objected to you calling Greens loonies yet you deliberately persist. It is not getting us anywhere. I am angry with Labor for their ridiculous leadership crap that cost them government. I could sit there and stew about that for the next couple of decades or I can talk about what is happening TODAY and think about what should happen TOMORROW and NEXT DECADE.

    There are Greens Senators from every state, 9 in total, and they got 10.4% of the First Preference vote in the HoR. They obviously have a significant following that deserve to be heard rather than ridiculed.

    I have zero interest in politics except for it being the vehicle to get done what we must. We get NOTHING done by pointless carping about the past.

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