Making generalisations is always dangerous!

In Bob Ellis’ article, he predicts a landslide by Rudd and a wipeout for the Liberals.

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/ellis-the-coming-rudd-landslide-explained/

Bob Ellis may be considered slightly eccentric by some. But I remember on the night of Kennett’s defeat, Ellis was being interviewed as to why he’d come to Victoria. He predicted that it’d be a hung parliament and that he wanted to be there to see the end of Kennett. The tone of the interviewers seemed to suggest that although the man was insane, it was at least some entertainment on what was to be a boring election night with Kennett being re-elected in a landslide according to some polls.

I turned to my wife and commented that they shouldn’t mock too much, because on the early figures coming in, Ellis could be right. At an election night party, I kept checking the result because I’d noticed that nothing was happening to prove Ellis wrong. Every time someone came up to me and asked how it was going, I’d tell them that Labor might win. They’d nod as though I’d had too much red wine, and then tell me exactly why Labor had stuffed up the election, which shadow minister was an idiot or why Bracks would never be Premier. Suddenly, sometime after ten, people began to crowd around the TV. “Told yas,” I said, in between singing, “Ding, dong the witch is dead” and explaining that I was perfectly capable of standing and that I didn’t need a chair just some red shoes so I could get back to Kansas.

Needless to say, neither Bob Ellis nor I got much credit for being right.

Bob’s gone out on a limb here with a bold prediction. I put $10 on Labor to win more than 70 seats at 10-1 a few weeks ago on Sportsbet, and $5 to win between 61 and 70 seats at 7-1. I suspect I’ll wish I’d put on more.