Sorry, No Vacancy
By John Haly
“There is enough work in Australia for nobody to be on unemployment benefits except for those medically incapable.” (Quote from Twitter!)
This is a familiar theme on social media. Such claims are often made, predictably, by a privileged white male with a job; and no understanding of the misery of the unemployed because he has some anecdotal “proof” based on his personal experience of how his “mates” have kept him in work.
Outside of that cocoon, as my recent piece demonstrated, there are far more unemployed people than the ABS has ever stated. However, the notion that bounteous employment is available, prevails.
According to Roy Morgan’s research, full-time and part-time employment are increasing, but so are underemployment and unemployment rates beyond 2021. There are numerous reasons from my last exposition on this using October 2023 statistics to believe that one and a half million people are validly unemployed.
This is significantly more likely than the around half a million claim that has dominated the ABS estimate over the last year. I’ve already addressed that, so let’s move on to the subject of work opportunities in Australia.
Surveys vs Advertisements
Understandably, having a low unemployment rate serves corporate and government interests. There is strong motivation to find a high number of vacant positions to support the narrative that the unemployed are simply unmotivated, preferring to live off grandiose welfare cheques. The idea of below-poverty aid being sufficient to propel individuals into occupations clamouring to be filled by desperate employers is ridiculous. Unfortunately, so many people think this is true.
Despite the ideological incentives, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and estimates from the Department of Employment show that job opportunities have decreased in recent months. Businesses report a 35% higher number of job positions than the number of classic job advertisements as identified by the Department of Employment, (See Figure 1). Despite the drive for a narrative that implies there is enough employment. However, all the government can come up with is a little over 402K job positions. Only two-thirds of these are classically advertised. This is still less than the half million ABS estimates are unemployed. In October 2023, Nine News featured headlines like “The Aussie industries desperate to hire more workers”. If this is the case, why are there so few adverts in comparison to claimed vacancies? Figures 1 & 2 both show that over a decade ago, surveyed jobs were less than advertised positions.
RM Under and Unemployment & Job Vacancies (ABS & Dept Emp’)
There are reasons for this, to be fair, which are because of developing technologies. Seek, CareerOne, Australian JobSearch, LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter/X have emerged as key outlets for job seekers and employers in the digital era. The final three are not tracked by the IVI statistics. However, because of the abundance of inflated and outdated profiles, LinkedIn’s popularity has declined dramatically over the years as has Twitter/X. Hey, I glam my LinkedIn up as well, but I haven’t heard from a recruiter in years.
Advertised job classifications
The claim by businesses that surveyed vacancies are 35% above advertised positions appears dubious. If 35% of the total 402K positions indicated in the poll are not easily accessible for public scrutiny, we must wonder what kind of job market is being concealed from the public? It will almost definitely not be general labourers (5.8%), drivers (5.3%), salespeople (7.3%), or community workers (10.7%). (see Figure 3). The service industries, which have been complaining about being “desperate for workers,” will promote heavily. There are 76K jobs in that small group, which is distributed across Australia’s vast brown country, with 18 cities, over 100K inhabitants, and 1700 towns with populations ranging from that to a thousand people. The math suggests that if there are more than 40 job vacancies in a given location, you are most likely in a metropolis. If you are in a rural area with fewer than a thousand people, the chances of finding one job in all of those categories are slim. I haven’t even mentioned whether you have the skills to perform these non-professional occupations.
Surveyed position breakdown
Professionals, managers, technicians, and clerical and administrative staff vacancies (which make up the great majority of posted jobs) that require expensive higher education are the most likely categories to find unadvertised job vacancies. If you disagree, take a look at Figure 4 for a breakdown of the ABS survey of positions by industry.
The meeting of jobs and unemployed
Close but no cigar lit
Just consider the media excitement that occurred when for once, the surveyed job vacancies (not the advertised vacancies) and the ABS “measure” of unemployment nearly equalled. The Australian Financial Review reported a decline in job vacancies in June 2022, with the ABS unemployment rate falling to a new 48-year low of 3.4% in July. “For the first time on record in Australia’s history, there are more job openings than unemployed people to fill the vacant positions”. Technically, the ABS’s May 2022 quarterly survey recorded 476,900. The AFR rounded this up to 480K, but it had fallen to 460,400 by August. However, unemployed people (seasonally adjusted) were 488,800 in July, which is technically higher than 480K vacancies. Fairly close if you don’t consider that surveyed jobs were falling and had been doing so for two months before the ABS came up with the 480K. This had fallen to 460K job vacancies by the following month (see Figure 5). I can tell you that in July 2022, the ABS listed 90,600 gig employees as having no hours of labour and no compensation.
The ABS considers these people to be “employed” despite no pay or work because they have “job attachments”. I can also tell you that Jobseeker had a hard count of 892,066 people for whom they paid unemployment benefits. But, “for the first time on record in Australia’s history…”, the ABS and Job Surveys numbers came somewhat close to one another, loosely speaking. The hullabaloo from the MSM press was extraordinary. I so want to say FFS, but that would be unprofessional.
NON-Numeric employment obstruction
Roy Morgan’s annual workforce numbers have been steadily increasing over the last 16 years. These figures show an average of 222,000 new individuals added per year. Because Australia’s population is concentrated along a 35,821-kilometer-long coastline, job searchers are unlikely to live in areas where there are suitable vacant positions. When evaluating assertions of “labour scarcity,” it is essential to take a more comprehensive approach, taking into account the substantial rise in the number of individuals actively looking for employment, limited economic diversification, and the decline of Australia’s secondary trophic economic level (Manufacturing).
Factors exacerbating the scarcity of employment opportunities in Australia include:
- socio-demographic characteristics;
- geographical location;
- job suitability;
- employer discrimination;
- accessibility limitations;
- skill and education levels;
- competition;
- financial constraints;
- literacy levels;
- inadequate remuneration;
- restricted working hours;
- employer exploitation;
- job conditions;
- domestic violence;
- health concerns; and
- transportation issues.
The media and the government have been hesitant to engage in a more detailed and nuanced debate on this topic. The media has issued propagandistic critiques asking that the unemployed “just get a job” or that “people lack the desire to work.” The unemployed are portrayed as intellectually and mentally inferior. Employers who exploit their employees and express irritation with the scarcity of susceptible individuals to fill low-wage temporary positions demonstrate a similar level of contempt.
Skills required for future employment
Skill levels continue to be important in meeting future employment needs, but Australia’s policy decision to impose huge educational debts on young people in return for a degree may be viewed as a disheartening display of policy short-sightedness. A more pragmatic solution, akin to Gough Whitlam’s educational policies, could be to develop higher education programmes tailored to expected future demands. (See Figure 6)
Long-term limits on actual employment development in Australia, as well as the persistent dissemination of misleading information claiming low unemployment figures, are all obstructions. Employers report difficulties in hiring candidates for roles that lack appeal at all skill levels. Unemployment, job markets, economic complexity, interest rate policies, corporate-driven inflation, income disparities, austerity measures without social support, and educational demands must all be addressed in Australia’s economic future. Governments, the media, and economists must address these difficulties head-on rather than hide behind the propaganda of flawed metrics.
This article was originally published on AUSTRALIA AWAKEN – IGNITE YOUR TORCHES and Independent Australia.
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16 comments
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leefe -
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Caz -
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Pete D -
GL -
andyfiftysix -
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Return to home pageAnd even for those of us who are “medically incapable”, they won’t accept that there isn’t something we should be doing to justify the pittance we receive. It’s about more than whether you “can do something”; there’s the whole question of what you can do, and how, and where, and under what circumstances.
Great article, John. Thank you.
Spot on.
Such arguments ignore the fact that the economy is based on an assumption of around 4% unemployment which, I believe is in part to provide a surge capacity for business. Perhasp these unemployed should get a real wage as they are doing their bit for th broader economy.
WORK FOR THE MOLE ( Dole ) Is No answer to – No Vacancies …
( THE SENATE INQUIRY INTO POVERTY 2002 -2003 made 70 Recommendations for solutions !! ) why Have they Not been
followed up ?????? , Just sitting Dormant somewhere in the PARLIMENT LIBRARY gavering Cob webs !!!! , And a waste of tax payers money even trying to write the appalling statistics for different catergories Of welfare receipents ,..NO one lifted a finger ,,Accept , Hawk and Keating when they were in Power ..albeit ,Just a 6 month reprieive ,,The RED Scheme …It was a small solution that never was allowed to reach full fruitation and develop and Morph into something more enhanced and enduring ,,which un-like work for the dole ,The Red scheme was intently, more HUMANE and dignifying …!!!…………………………..
So ,,could a modern Form Of The RED SCHEME – Be Revived and collaborated with Local councils and local governments ,,State Governments , Federal and Private – All contributing and collaborating Funds to make it a reality ????? ,,
In other words ,,,WORK FOR THE MOLE ( DOLE ) Is Not fit for purpose any More and is nothing more than a Punitive- Punishment Mechanism to Criminalise Welfare Receipents ,,!! …
Its time to AXE this Bastard Scheme and Scourge and Mass criminalised of the Unemployed and Bring back REAL WORK ,,Real Training ,,Real long term , sustained employment for all who wish to Humanely employed and Supported – the Fair Dinkum way …
If it a cost a couple of Billion dollars or so .. TO Create and INVEST ,,JOB CREATION PROGRAMMES and On A GRAND SCALE ,,
Pay the Unemployed The Minimum wage or better, plus entitlements , TO go out and Clean this Lovely Country ..The Highways ..The By ways ,The back streets ,,The Creeks and rivers and Eco systems ,,Clear away all the vines , pests and loose Bush debri .fallen trees ,,Bark ,leaves ..over grown lantana ,dryed out grasses ,, Create an Army of Mobile teams – To clear away mountains upon mountains of dead wood and dead trees and scattered Rubbish , Old motor car shells .Old dis used throw aways from builders and business illegal dumping right around Australia .. Build safe haven cavens deep with in the mountains for Fire escapes from Bush fires ,,with built in electricals and basics survival mechanisms in place ..Bomb shelters in strategic located places for the ever looming threat from Invasion from war Mongers ..ACT Now ..Utilise and train the unemployed in Bush fire disasters ,,earth quakes .Flood clean ups ..Tsnamis ,,Drought ..Mobile Craffitti removal teams Aussie wide ..And how about ..Mobile Domestic Home Cleaning Bins ,the 3 bins , yellow ,Red and green ..how many Millions of bins could be Hygenically clean from the unemployed in Mobile cleaning gangs Aussie wide ???? , ( The list is endless what they could be paid to do ..Endless ,)
Just think ..The taxes paid from 750, 000 thousand Unemployed people that would now paying Taxes to the Government Couthers ,,150 to 200 dollars a week in taxes ,,times that by seven hundred and fifty thousand unemployed people ..that Equates to around a Billion dollars a week in Taxes flowing back in to the economy !! …Times that by 1 month ,,thats close 4 billion a month ,,and in 1 year ,,around 40 to 48 Billion dollars !!! ,,The Job creation Scheme could pay for itself .Easily, in the first couple of months ,,, All we need is a collective body and will and creative thinking to implement such a beneficial and humane, programmes etc ,,,
By the way ,,IM a Disability pensioner ,,Nearly Deaf …I dont have any degrees ,But there is never any lack of ideas on the ground to end Discrimination and endless criminalisation of welfare people ..To help people get back into the work force …
A modern Up dated form of Job Creation and Investment ,,An Investment- that has a sure return from the taxes flowing back into the economy ,,Invest In the Unemployed . (.Punitive welfare and punishment is a waste of tax payers Money ,,work for the mole Mutual Obligation has no taxes be paid by the unemployed ..Making it unfit for purpose any more !!! )..Its a sheer Dog act imposed by the Right wing attack Dogs – End this Rort and Kill work for the Mole Dole !!!!! ….Bring back massive Job Creation Programmes for the Unemployed and Restore Long lost Dignity …Fair Go for All …Not just some who Get Left Behind ..Let Job Creation and Investments – Drive Vacancies for the Army of Unemployed who could benefit and Contribute Taxes and productivity ,,,A WIN, WIN ..for Every Body !! ,, End the stigma surrounding DOLE BLUDGER for ever !!! ,, Bring Back Job Creation Programmes and make them Permanent !!!!….. Its a Frigging NO Brainer !!!…….Mean while – Fair Go has abandoned the Unemployed ……
One problem for the unemployed is that they lack various licenses. A surprising number can’t drive (and don’t have the wherewithal to purchase, fuel, maintain, register or insure a car). Many hospitality jobs require Food Handling, Responsible Service of Alcohol and Responsible conduct of Gambling cards, costing around $320. Warehouse jobs want a forklift license. Any work with children or aged requires police checks, and working with children checks and even when these cost nothing, you still have to get out there and find out how to qualify. You need to get your Construction White Card for building jobs.
You can’t work in a chicken factory if you have any pet birds or backyard chooks. Many gardening and bush care jobs need you to have chainsaws and Chemical Handling and Safety (that one is about $450).
You might think that the Job Search agencies would see to these qualifications, but they seem quite happy to leave it to the unemployed people to track down what may be available at TAFE or through a private provider.
Great article.
Read it before, recently. Extremely well elucidated.
Of course the official bean-counters and prognosticators care to ignore it, so they can maintain their prestidigitations, sinecures and profits.
First get rid of the words DOLE and BLUDGER. I am sick of hearing politicians using the expression WORK FOR THE DOLE. Start treating citizens with respect. Bring back the Commonwealth Employment Service. It was actually a service and it worked well. All the governments since Howard have lined the. Pockets of rent. seekers.
Most of the politicians continue this schadenfreude would never participate in in the scheme as it is, let alone have the mental acuity to survive blatant discrimination.
Has always been not what you know but who you know, and that’s true for all current parliamentarians, including the PM.
Simple fact of the matter is that there has always and will always be a certain number of people who will not be able to actively participate, known fact.
The other known fact is the psychosocial torture that is deliberately based on those who find themselves in this invidious situation thru no fault of their own, other than continuous poor Government policy which seems to pass muster for the wider body politic.
For those that do not have the social ‘framework’ to cope, they are then criticised for seeking relief from their emotional pain of being tossed onto the scrap heap of life.
Marie Antoinette once said ‘let them eat cake’, if only they could, it’s the broader ignorance of what you have wrought that is the undoing of society, so don’t complain when the bitter harvest finds you.
The Latin ‘doleo, doles, dolero’ is Latin for ‘to hurt’, ‘to feel/suffer pain’, ‘to grieve’. ‘Doling out’ something usually carries a negative connotation. The word ‘dollar’ is also associated with pain as it’s a debt instrument and a $ note is a ‘promissory’ note. Imagine the pain on society if the banker’s legal department decides to follow through on that logic. You thought you paid ‘your house’ off, think again, you paid ‘our bank’ only in ‘promissory notes’. Try again.
But I digress. Australia faces the same fate as other first world countries, our labor costs are seen as too high, therefore a sizable pool of unemployed is a must. It forces a downward pressure on wages, something essential for the destruction of the middle class in the long term. Super high immigration levels acts as leverage in this goal.
SIGNED Pete Duddton
Caz,
“First get rid of the words DOLE and BLUDGER.” I can’t see this happening for the foreseeable future because what would the LNP and assorted RRWNJ’s in parliament have to use to describe the peasants they detest (except at election time). Dole and bludger and who can forget the ever present favourite dole bludger, the Rupet Media Mafia would be apoplectic if those words were removed.
Firstly, you have to be wilfully blind to assert there is a job for everyone who can work.
I can work. I am a pensioner . My ability to do physical work is rather limited. I cant climb ladders. I can do office work, i can ride a computer. But i am not qualified to work in an office. I have a truck licence but i dont feel confident enough to drive a big monster on the road anymore. I cant work as a waiter, i may tip things over or trip over customers.
So, what jobs are then available for me?
andyfiftysix, you are still enployable as you obviously have wisdom.
But I dont’ know what you can work at as experience and physical conditions limit options.
If and when you lose your wisdom, you can become a politician.
You will recognized this opportunity when you watch tv and find yourself nodding agreement to the news.
Or when you think it is worth voting for Dutton. Or Albo is a leader.
I say, bring back Bill Srhoten.
GL
In the 80s I worked in Social Security in the western suburbs of Sydney. Right next door was the Commonwealth Employment Office. One could register for the unemployment benefit, that was how it was referred to, and then one could walk next door to peruse the jobs available. The offices were beside the railway station, another benefit assisting people without cars,or short of petrol. We treated people with respect. There was also sickness benefits for people with a temporary illness. What happened to that service? I interviewed a lot of migrants with great skills that were not recognised in Australia. They took on menial jobs. I often heard the comment that it was less stressful , and even pleasant being interviewed by someone mature, rather than someone young enough to be a son or daughter. I often spent time listening to stories of how these people came to Australia. I cannot imagine any of the job agencies taking the time we public servants took to provide a service. I loved my job. Unlike Centrelink staff , I look,looked forward to going to work each day.
Caz, re. your comments about migrants with great skills; anecdotally, through my relationship with my Chinese partner I’ve met many migrants from that country who came here from a range of high skill backgrounds in engineering, high-tech environments, positions within government organisations, leaders, academics, medical people, space science and more, all of whom on arrival found no opportunities to continue within their respective skill sets and experiential backgrounds and were instead forced to start again; menial work in restaurants and kitchens, manual labour, hard slog for little reward just to stay alive.
Most of these people eventually prospered and were able to generate comfortable lives by virtue of hard work and persistence along with a measure of risk taking but it must be said that their new country actually gave them very little apart from the opportunity to ‘have a go.’ And probably fair to add that no support agencies either within government or the private sector actually assisted these people in their integration into Australian society. The ghostly whisps of the White Australia policy persist, 124 years after their inculcation.
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