Queensland Futures: A LNP Landslide on 26 October 2024?

The AIM Network

3 months ago

By Denis Bright

Clutching their Little Blue Book of Motherhood Statements in Those Right Priorities for Queensland’s Future, the state LNP candidates are all hoping for a landslide victory. The Murdoch press and its television outlets would love a return to the Joh era. Where David Crisafulli does offer a pragmatic policy, it should be favourably considered by the Miles Government out of respect for mainstream democratic processes and as a sign of even-handedness in leadership.

The Crisafulli initiative on a mental health facility to assist troubled youth in Central Queensland is of course a proposal in this category.

However, over the past century in Queensland, victory for Queensland conservatives has been full of nasty surprises. Time for a Change in 1957 repeated a similar positive mantra to that of Premier Arthur Moore. Soon, essential rail transport links to the Gold Coast were closed, married female teachers dismissed on 31 December from 1958 as a cost saving and unplanned urban sprawl became the buzz word against so-called Red Tape in a motorized Brisbane. These austerity savings were splurged on Queensland’s centenary celebrations in 1959 and the visit of Princess Alexandra. I recall that an old relative informed me that the Governor’s train was decorated and painted for a picnic in the woods in the late Premier Nicklin’s electorate.

In the prime years of my grandparents, Premier Arthur Moore rose from obscurity to fame at the 1929 state election on the eve of the Great Depression by strategies to free Queensanders from the so-called grip of the Labor Party over the previous fourteen years. There were promises of giving young people a chance and a better way under the banner of Country Party Conservatism as interpreted by the member for Aubigny in the Dalby district. The initial positivity of the 1929 campaign soon changed to more austerity, perks for the rural sector and use of the gerrymander to keep the conservatives in control of the Deep North.

The Moore ascendency which lasted just one term made inroads into the Labor Heartland in Queensland to consolidate gains made by Queensland conservatives in 1926. State seats like Brisbane, Bremer in Ipswich, Bowen, Maryborough, Mount Morgan and Fortitude Valley were now highly marginal after the 1929 election as Queensland conservatives took aim at Labor heartlands with populist jingles about happy times ahead.

In far-off Colombus, Ohio at Ohio State University, Emeritus Professor Gerald Kosicki at the School of Communication has pioneered research on the capacity of conservative populists to forge great victories by framing the political agenda with documents like The Right Priorities for Queensland’s Future with the support of mainstream media networks.

The current success of this style of campaigning shows up in the Freshwater Opinion Polling as published in the AFR (30 September 2024):

Premier Steven Miles is on track for a wipeout at next month’s Queensland state election, as the Liberal-National opposition opens a 12-point two-party-preferred lead, according to a new poll.

The latest Australian Financial Review-Freshwater Strategy survey shows Labor’s primary support has collapsed 10 points to 30 per cent since its third successive election victory in 2020 as Queenslanders struggle with cost-of-living and housing pressures, along with widespread fury ov handling crime.

The AFR report by Queensland correspondent James Hall offers a technicolor synopsis of the state of play in Queensland politics from the application of the Freshwater Strategic data:

In the words of the lyrics from Simon and Garfunkel of 1964 fame, Queenslanders’ concerns about crime fully assimilated as electoral concerns. Like the words of the prophets on those subway walls and tenement halls, the Miles Government has time in caretake mode to expunge this political graffiti in its own political communications.

The Queensland Government is already tough on crime. A lot of the perceived criminal activity is hearsay to scare the Mamas and the Papas:

A police badge can emerge when least expected through the immature application of Jack’s Law as noted by O’Brien Criminal & Civil Solicitors (2 September 2024):

So, the recent plan to expand Jack’s Law to include Queensland shopping centres, licensed premises, and entertainment venues has sparked a heated debate. This legislation, initially introduced to combat knife crime, has now broadened its scope. Now, it allows police to conduct warrantless searches using handheld metal detectors in more public areas.

While some hail it as necessary for public safety, others criticise it. Opponents say it potentially might be an overreach and infringement on civil liberties.

Jack’s Law was enacted in response to the tragic stabbing of 17-year-old Jack Beasley in 2019. The law initially allowed police to use metal detectors in designated Safe Night Precincts and public transport hubs to detect hidden weapons. Since its implementation, over five hundred weapons have been seized.

The expansion of Jack’s Law comes in the wake of several high-profile violent incidents. For example, the tragic Bondi Junction attack resulted in multiple fatalities. Similar events have intensified calls for broader police powers to prevent similar tragedies.

As a result, Queensland Premier Steven Miles emphasised the need for such measures. He stated: “Community safety is a key priority,” and highlighted the success of the law in confiscating dangerous weapons.

Each of the LNP’s chosen disciples applies The Right Priorities Document with some zeal as in the local state electorate of Maiwar in Brisbane’s Inner West in a seat which is held by Green MP, Michael Berkman (Image: LNP):

The sheer opportunism of the LNP’s Tough on Crime Rhetoric is revealed by the failure of the Brisbane City Council’s chosen Whitebox Management company to turn on the security lights adjacent to the refurbished Witton Barracks Community Centre which adjoins a popular park for drinking at nighttime. Both railway station staff and even the isolated employees at Whitebox have some fears about parking in this locality.

I have reported the matter to the Indooroopilly Police, Radio 4BC and all LNP representatives in this area. The Witton Barracks area still remains in darkness. The young constable who noted my complain at Indooroopilly Polce Station had completely good rapport with members of the public. Officious practices give the police and politicians always give authority a bad name.

Labor will always be tough on crime and responsive to progressive crime prevention. Much crime is embedded in disadvantage and mental health problems. Tackle these social structures and the battle against crime is well underway. There is little mention of the need to crackdown on sale of party drugs which contribute to premature ageing and those mental health problems which emerge later in life from the use of unknown substances.

The sources of corruption and wholesale tax avoidance as a contribution to budgetary problems is also absent from LNP communications (ABC News 8 November 2023). Readers can scroll the lists available on ABC News sites to see which corporate icons engage in horrible games with the ATO at great expense to the budgets of governments at all levels. Readers should check on which companies are on the tax avoidance shame list from ABC News in the latest and previous editions of the tax avoidance lists.

Our Queensland government does not overspend. The current budget is accompanied by a commitment to $23 billion in capital works in a $93 billion budget for 2024-25. David Crisafulli’s team opposed the increases in mineral royalties which keep the current budget in good shape.

In the traditions of Professor Kosicki’s communication research, the weighting given by the LNP to its tough on crime rhetoric is an attempt to jam out real issues of concern across the electorate which are related to disadvantage, mental health problems and cost-of-living issues. The real purpose of this populist rhetoric is to win government along the old precedents set by Arthur Moore, Joh and Campbell Newman who all hoped for political dynasties that could last for decades as in those dark years between 1970 and 1988 which ended in the criminal proceedings of the Fitzgerald Inquiry into public corruption.

The Freshwater Polling shows that the LNP’s framing and agenda setting of news is working:

The LNP’s rhetoric about crime is opportunistic and is devoid of real attention to the mafias behind the illegal drug trade, official corruption and tax avoidance on a grand scale.

The LNP’s Right Priorities are largely policy free zones. However, the Freshwater polling shows that the LNP rhetoric has gained traction. The electorate is responding as an echo chamber to the LNP rhetoric that is repeated in the mainstream media with quasi-professional zeal.

These political illusions can still be challenged in the campaign ahead so that Labor can campaign on the issues that really matter. If both mainstream parties want bipartisanship on some initiatives, that is good for leadership credibility on both sides.

And irony of ironies, back at Ohio State University in Columbus, the Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC) has sold its assets in CampusPrac and Traffic Management valued at $Aus 1 billion at a massive profit for Queensland taxpayers (Bloomberg 28 September 2023). Best wishes to our state from the cash flows being generated from the Northwestern Universities Parking Systems.

David Crisafulli should indeed his own errors of judgment in relation to that prior opposition to increases in mineral royalties and acknowledge that the Queensland economy is not in chaos.

The current campaign is not over. Every percentage gain in Labor’s primary vote saves Labor seats from the LNP landslide which is being fostered by the LNP’s Policy Free Zone in That Little Blue Book.

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Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.