Political Futures: Will Conservative Global Middle Powers Go All the Way with Trump’s Second Administration?
By Denis Bright
National elections in Germany and Australia in 2025 will test the global influence of the second Trump administration on domestic politics in more conservative Middle Powers. Both Germany and Australia in 2025 are Middle Powers in the context of these discussions as well as being firm loyalists in the wider military alliance.
Australia’s sovereign integrity was protected by its traditionally strong trading and investment ties with the countries of the Indo-Pacific Basin. However, even this positive area of Australian national sovereignty is a weakening force. DFAT data on foreign investment up to 2023 does show that investment from the US and Britain has a much higher profile in our economy including investment channeled through the Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Ireland and Malta. Such exotic investment hubs assist multinational companies in avoiding paying taxes in Australia and in their real host countries.
In comparison, the German economy has faced more significant problems in its post-COVID recovery.
Both Australia and Germany are also under pressure from US political leaders to increase defence spending to above 2 percent of GDP. This defence burden makes domestic economic management more difficult in both countries. These economic problems in Germany are evident in the lower rates of economic growth and income divides in Eastern German states which could benefit from higher levels of investment in infrastructure and community development to offset the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a growing political force which currently controls two states or landers.
Germany: United in Economic Challenges
The German state of Berlin and surrounding Brandenburg state have been affected by the national economic slowdown. Berlin state still has the third best performance of the German states in economic growth.
Cost-of-living politics has contributed to an upsurge in votes for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at German state elections. The AfD currently controls the coalition governments of two states in Eastern Germany in Mecklenburg and Thuringia.
Voters in both Australia and Germany have the right to bring changes to these political frameworks. Australia’s preferential voting system for the lower house of parliament avoids some of the lengthy negotiations after ambiguous election results in Germany. The SPD sometimes retains a minority role in Grand Coalitions stitched up to avoid partnerships with the AfD.
A Union Coalition between the emergent conservatives from the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) was a successful outcome with Angela Merkel as Chancellor (2005-21). In the Merkel-tradition, Australia’s own Anthony Albanese is also currently trying on a more independent cloak in relationships with China (ABC News 18 November 2024). Australia’s commitment to free trade agendas brought a favourable comment from China Daily (14 November 2024).
In current INSA polling from Germany, the Centre-left has no chance of forging a long-term majority coalition in 2025. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is a new addition to progressive politics in national polling. BSW’s political traction is slightly in decline on the latest polling.
Current INSA Polling in Germany Showing Percentage Changes in Support Levels
INSA Polling has quite speculatively been translated into possible seats in the German Lower House (Bundestag) after the forthcoming national elections:
The political leaders of Middle Powers in Germany and Australia need to address the going income and social divide in their own domestic constituencies. The SPD in Germany and Australian Labor have been more accommodating towards the US Global Alliance which brings a less than democratic influence into electoral and political decision-making in domestic politics because support for global strategic decisions is expected.
Statistica (2024) notes that the US still has 35,000 troops stationed in Germany. The Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation added that NATO announced the deployment of long-range US Nuclear Missiles in Germany from 2026.
Australia too has been the host for US Military Communication installations since the Cold War. AUSMIN issues annual leaders’ statements on annual negotiations about the strategic state of play after confidential meetings which bypass the need for open parliamentary debates on sensitive issues. Not commenting on operational and security matters are the usual responses from political leaders to media questions on these sensitive but fundamental political issues.
The AUKUS announcement on 16 September 2021 for the creation of an enhanced trilateral security protocol between the USA, Britain and Australia was the product of two years of secret negotiations between Prime Minister Morrison and his strategic ministers in Peter Dutton as Defence Minister and Marise Payne.
A strong activist base also scrutinizes domestic threats to national sovereignty in both countries. This resistance through direct action is a long way short of involvement in progressive national and state political administrations to work for change in policy directions. It is complemented by our still limited critical media reporting of the policy events that really matter through public broadcasting and that small range of independent outlets in a media web that is strongly under the influence of big corporate networks (Image: ICAN Germany).
The macro-themes of this article may not have a high profile in the mainstream corporate media but the role of Middle Powers in an increasing Imperial Order that is steered by these militarists and intelligence services is widely covered in international relations circles. Even the kindle editions of recent tomes on the role of Middle Powers are expensive. I noticed this reference which was published two years ago (Image: Amazon):
It encourages me to know that I am not alone in my concerns. Your comments are welcome through the Replies Button particularly if you have a viewpoint relating to Australia’s roles as a Middle Power in the global economy and its embedded strategic networks. All the Way With the USA as buzz words from late Harold Holt’s Government (1966-67) seem to have re-emerged with the Second Term of Donald Trump and strikes welcome cords of adulation from sections of the corporate media which are themselves under multinational control.
Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.
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15 comments
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Burleigh Waters -
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Denis Bright -
Even Stephen
Return to home pageAll the Way with the USA could be a musical farce and a sequel to the populism of Eating the Cats from Kiffness. This is of course no joke as the poverty and social tensions of Alice Springs are themselves in the shadows of that CIA Communication Base at Pine Gap which the LNP allowed our so-called allies to construct in the Cold War.
Good to know that someone is speaking up for Australian sovereignty in Imperial and Imperious Times with the second coming of Donald Trump
Going all the Way with the USA in Germany also includes possible replacement of Olaf Scholz by current German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius within the SPD. This will move the SPD in a more conservative direction on strategic policy issues comparable to the British Labour Party under Keir Starmer.
Despite British Labour’s landslide victory last July with 412 Labour seats in the House of Commons out of a total 650 seats, Starmer has a disapproval rating of 67 percent.
Multicultural British Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch seeks to take Britain back to old style Tory policies.
Al Jazeera notes that Kemi Badenoch was a passionate supporter of Brexit and threw her weight behind the much-maligned Rwanda deportation scheme. As a true blue Conservative, the new leader will support the usual strategic partnerships with the prevailing US Administration and tough on crime strategies at home.
Voters across Australia should be afraid of this new Trump era
Regional Australian ports will soon be competing to host US Bases with annexes for other aliens.
Offers some early resistance to a re- emergence of Peter Dutton as on the te architects of AUKUS
Denis, thanks for a great article on international politics in 2025.
In this sphere, no matter which ‘side’ of Oz politics forms govt, assuredly from mainstream media one will see mostly irrelevant blather to keep one hyped by diversions and the usual performative crap by MPs and the ‘thinktanks’.
Whilst the real issues are buried deep in the PMO, the Attorney-General’s Dept, Foreign Affairs, the Treasury, the ATO, the FIRB, Defence Australia and Home Affairs, in places no-one’s allowed to look – maybe even so-called ‘independents’ like NACC and the Auditor-General.
If one could only get Fraser, Whitlam and Kerr resurrected into the dock.
Great omments Clakka. Advertising agencies like Topham Guerin at the Q elections deliver froth to the electorate as policy priorities in booklets that are carried everywhere by LNP candidates in case they deviatre from the prepared marketing script. This vacuous advertising style goes unreported even on ABC news programmes as the LNP prepares for the next coup to install Peter Dutton as PM.
Will Donald Trump now be Australia’s new Commander in Chief?
Whichever party is in power is always a puppet to the Septic Tank junta. If the rotten potato ever got in to power as the PM the whole of Australia will probably be handed over to the seppo and zionist military scum to use as they please and make us another genocidal wasteland like Gaza by not giving a flying f..k about the local population. The whole western world is turning to shit thanks to the Divided States of Armageddon and their protection of murderers.
So John C what can everyone do about how to react to this problem on the eve of JFK’s assassination in the USA allowing for the time difference between the Texas and Australia (+17 hours to Sydney).
This control against directed against Middle Powers has gone on throughout the Cold War and perhaps since the arrival of Harry Truman in 1945 after the death of FDR.
Here our leaders are afraid to use their Middle Power Rights as in Germany.
Fortunately, Albanese has been less timid at G20 in Brazil and is preparing us for the worst excesses of Donald Trump who is about to wreck our trading partnerships to bring them into line with the rise of multinational companies from Britain, US and assorted Tax Havens who now control Australia’s foreign investment with build-in tax evasion offsets that puts their revenue base beyond the full control of the ATO.
So what should be our responses, John C?
Social democrats in Australia should welcome moves to extend the scope of investment by the Future Fund to infrastructure and social housing by Jim Chalmers. NSW in particular has a very proactive commitment to Transport Oriented Development (TOD) which the Future Fund and the NSW Generations Fund needs to support. Social democracy needs to be at cutting edge of optimum economic management and commitment to improved living standards which the LNP will never support through government intervention. Now is the time to raise these issues before the LNP swamps the 2025 election campaign with crafty slogans from multinational advertising companies.
Thanks to the readers who liked and shared this article.
I am currently working on a follow-up article to un-cover some of the secrets of this MAGA era which intrudes on Australia’s sovereignty as a Middle Power. If Australians continue to support minor far-right parties who allocate preferences to the LNP, more weapons of mass destruction will pass through our military ports on British and US military vessels.
Nuclear-powered vessels have been coming here since 1960 according to the Australia Navy: (https://seapower.navy.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/Port%20Visits%20to%20Australia%20by%20Nuclear-Powered%20Vessels%20-%20A%20Historical%20Context.pdf).
Such issues are rarely covered by mainstream news outlets. Television crews might cover the awe associated with visiting aircraft carriers. At US ports families of naval crews are sometimes treated to family day cruises on vessels like USS Gerald Ford (CVN78). https://www.reddit.com/r/WarshipPorn/comments/vnjiak/uss_gerald_r_ford_cvn_78_family_day_cruise/
Eventually, MAGA leaders in the immediate will put the hard word on Australian leaders to upgrade the electronic CIA Base at Pine Gap, to rotate more foreign troops through our country and to purchase more missiles from the military industrial complexes of the Anglosphere.
Eventually, Australia might have to put up with nuclear weapons and 35,000 US troops here as in Germany.
Resistance here to the possible arrival of Peter Dutton in mid-2025 should be turned up as his government will relish in these new propaganda initiatives.
Expect the LNP to endorse ever good initiative of the Albanese Government as a ploy to win the elections as in the Queensland state election using slick advertising companies that blames the Labor Government for every political and social negative.
In Queensland, the mainstream media did not cover the LNP’s advertising campaign which resulted in the loss of fifteen regional seats north of Bribie Island on the northern outskirts of Metro Brisbane. Even at the 2008 federal election Labor experienced a net loss of one seat to the Greens in Griffith.
If the Greens do not believe in the value of a United Front with Labor, Labor must take up the initiative unilaterally by framing its policy positives to retain its regional and outer metro seats particularly in WA, Tasmania and Victoria.
Keep a watch on INSA Polling in Germany: https://politpro.eu/en/germany/institute/insa
Australia and Germany are Middle Powers who can react negatively to the rise of Donald Trump.
The polling shows that the German fascists in AfD can be kept out of the German cabinet with another grand coalition in the style of Merkel’s CDU Government from twenty year’s ago.
There are prospects from the rise of the Left leaning BSW Party (8 percent) but the Linke’s Party must reach 5 percent to gain added representatives: Linke’s missed out last time with 4.9 percent of the Party list vote and is now on 4 percent in the latest polling.