Nuclear Fever: War Mongering on Iran
The recent string of exaggerated military successes – or at least as they are understood to be – places Israel in a situation it has been previously used to: prowess in war. Such prowess promises much: redrawing boundaries; overthrowing governments; destroying the capabilities of adversaries and enemies. Nothing, in this equation, contemplates peace, let alone diplomatic resolution. It’s playground pugilism that rarely gets out of the sandpit.
In Washington, a fever has struck regarding Israel’s advances. The outbreak has stirred much enthusiasm in a doctrine that has been shown, time and again, to be wretchedly uncertain and grossly dangerous. With no concrete evidence of imminent harm to US interests, it featured in the highest policy planning circles that oiled an invasion of Iraq in 2003. While the stated objective was the disarming of Saddam Hussein’s regime for having Weapons of Mass Destruction it turned out not to have, the logic was one of pre-emptive strike: we attack the madman in Baghdad before he goes nuclear and loses it.
The establishment wonk on empire and espionage at The Washington Post, David Ignatius, offers a fairly meaningless assessment in terms of claimed Israeli dominance over Iran and its proxies. After a year of conflict, Israel had “gained what military strategists call ‘escalation dominance’.” The implication: a decisive attack on Iran is imminent.
The point here (at this juncture, the mind lost seeks sanctuary in a mental asylum of lunatic reassurances), is that attacking Iran in toto will not result in much by way of retaliatory detriment. Some bruising, surely, but hardly lingering flesh wounds. Israel has, it would seem, been working some magic, spreading its own view that Iran has a gruesome plan in its military vault: eliminating Israel by 2040.
In Foreign Policy, Matthew Kroenig, generously self-described as a national security strategist, blusters for war. “Indeed, now is an ideal opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program,” he asserts with childish longing. The reason for such an attack lies in a presumption. Yet again, the doctrine of pre-emption, one hostile to international law and the UN Charter, plays out its feeble rationale. Evidence, in such cases, is almost always scanty. Kroenig, however, is certain. Iran will secure one bomb’s worth of weapon-grade material within a matter of weeks. The rest is obvious. No evidence is offered, nor does it even matter, given Kroenig’s longstanding zeal in wishing to rid Iran of its nuclear facilities.
The Atlantic Council has also suggested a policy that what is good for the goose of Christian-Jewish freedom is not good for the gander of Persian Shia ambition. It is exactly this full-fledged hypocrisy that the despots of the secular tyranny in North Korea realised in dealing with Washington. Beware the nostrums against nuclear armament.
In a report authored by both Democrats and Republicans for the Council, a warning of chilling absurdity is offered: “The United States needs to maintain a declaratory policy, explicitly enunciated by the president, that it will not tolerate Iran getting a nuclear weapon and will use military force to prevent this development if all other measures fail.”
Instead of resisting belligerent chatter, the authors suggest that the US threaten Iran through announcing “yearly joint exercises with Israel, such as Juniper Oak and seek additional funding in the next budget cycle to speed research and development of next-generation military hardware capable of destroying Iran’s nuclear program.”
Kroenig shows his usual stuffing. Iran can never have nuclear weapons, because the United States and Israel say so. (The Sunni powers, for their own reasons, agree.) This form of perennial idiocy could apply to all the powers that have nuclear weapons, including Israel itself. At one point, no state should have had that relic of sadism’s folly. Then they came in succession after the United States: the Soviet bomb, the Britannic bomb, the Gallic bomb. Throw in China, India, Pakistan, Israel. Plucky, deranged North Korea, was wise to note the trend, showing lunacy to be eternally divisible.
It is precisely that sort of logic that has drawn such comments as this from the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a May interview: “Iran’s level of deterrence will be different if the existence of Iran is threatened. We have no decision to produce a nuclear bomb, but we will have to change our nuclear doctrine if such threats occur.” This month, almost 40 legislators penned a letter to the Supreme National Security Council calling for a reconsideration of current nuclear doctrine. The greater the fanatic’s desire to remove a perceived threat, the more likely an opponent will give basis to that threat.
For all the faux restraint being officially aired in Washington regarding Israel’s next round of military assaults, there is enormous sympathy, even affection, for the view that wrongs shall be righted, and the mullahs punished. Bedding for a more hostile response to Iran also features in the inane airings of the presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris, in an interview with 60 minutes, remarked that, “Iran has American blood on its hands, okay?” In making that claim, she suggested that Tehran was somehow Washington’s greatest adversary.
In response to this fatuous remark, Justin Logan of the Cato Institute offers an ice-cold bath of reason: “This is not the Wehrmacht in 1940.” The path to dominating the Middle East hardly involves such tools as propaganda, proxy operations and psychological warfare “much less becoming the greatest threat to the United States.”
The nuclear option is now available to governments that should never have had them. But acquiring the dangerously untenable followed. To assume that brutal, amputation loving theocrats in Tehran should not have them defies the trajectory of a certain moronic consistency. The Persian bomb is probably imminent, and it is incumbent on the murderous fantasists in Israel and the United States to chew over that fact. Unfortunately for the rest of us, the fetish against acquisition risks expanding a conventional conflict through testing the will and means of a power that, while wounded, hardly counts as defeated.
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76 comments
Login here Register here“…she suggested that Tehran was somehow Washington’s greatest adversary.”
The US is on a path to oblivion.
They know it, but due to deliberately engineered perceptions, among the public and the political elite, they cannot see an off-ramp.
They are desperately trying to hang on to a global dominance that has already slipped out of their grasp.
They have lost the economic war against China.
They even lost the economic war against Russia, the same Russia that they ridiculed as having an economy smaller than a US state.
They have lost in Ukraine, as even the Western news media admits.
Because they refuse to admit to themselves and to their public that the game is lost, all policy decisions are irrational. They cannot be anything else.
Because they now despise diplomacy, and because they cannot compromise, their foreign policy is no more than a zero-sum game where one side takes all and the other gets zero.
But the rest of the world, seeing US weakness, no longer tolerates instructions from above.
We are at the point of nuclear war.
The USA now clearly stands for too much that is wrong. It might pay for this, terminally, and soon. Supremacist egofixated bullying is not acceptable now, though old empires did it with relative impunity. The British, French, Spanish and other vicious murderous enterprises (hah) have gone the way of the Persians and Macedonians and Huns of old. USA upstarts, and in a nation made largely of outcasts, runaways, disobedient dropouts, dodgers, liars, untrustworthy poor citizens, just stink of triumphal overbearing arrogance. A pruning and evaporation of USA and much world “leadership” is seen by many as highly curative, desirable, a rebalancing. If such filth as Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Pol Pot, Mao, Saddam, Idi Amin, etc., was eternally malodorous, a super stink, then little pillocks of similar filth, the Trump itch, Borispox, Morrisonmaggot types should be cast aside, below, be gone.
Of course Australia’s leadership, both Labor and LNP don’t appear to have got the message that they ‘no longer tolerate instructions from above’ both seeming to a similar degree to still be in thrall to the US military and spy agencies.
Both the US and Australia seem to be shit-scared of their respective Zionist lobbies though maybe it’s just the potential loss of the money they seem to be able to throw around.
It astounds me that neither government seems to be able to understand the wickedness of the rogue Israeli state. Plenty of Jewish people in the US, here and in Israel seem to be able to understand it and are adding their protests to those of Palestinians and their supporters. Forget Dutton and the Jewish members of his LNP, when are the scales going to fall from the eyes of the former pro-Palestinian Albo and the Penny Wong from whom we expected so much?
I consider the stolen state of Israel and the Divided States of Armageddon to be the biggest threats to world peace. Australia and the UK governments pander to them like love-sick obsessed teenagers who are scared of losing their protection and the influence the jews hold over power and money in all these countries. The zionists scum seem to think they are above the laws that the rest of us are supposed to abide by, considering themselves to be the ‘chosen ones’ (chosen by a myth!) so nobody can stand in their way. Net-hitler-yahu and his nazi troopers are nothing but a reincarnation of the very man and forces who wanted to wipe them off the face of the earth. I don’t mean to offend anyone but sometimes it looks like the world would have been better off if there were no jews…
Romeo Charlie, yes indeed, we are a dishonorable exception to the ever-growing group who no longer bows to US demands.
John C, “no more Zionists” would be far more preferable.
As RC points out, there are many good Jewish folk who are appalled at what’s happening.
Excellent article, thanks Binoy.
As for the Duttonate and its confused Trumpian blather and its genuflexion to Z#onism, there can be no doubt as to its intent to maintain the stupidities of bully-boy neoliberalism cum autocracy of the crumbling hegemon of the USofA.
I am not so sure that the ALP is so blinded, but carrying out a juggling act to temper absolutism and paranoia, and advantage Oz, whilst there is an advantage to be had before wreckage ensues.
Steve, i suggest your hatred for USA is clouding your view of the world. Us policies in some areas have been correct and other areas way off the moral compass. You clearly decided a while ago that they have no redeeming features.
I think your assertion of US decline is greatly exaggerated.
Just like Russia had the second best army in the world has been reduced to second best in the Ukraine. Thats why Russia now uses Nth Korean arms and soldiers. Russia is on the brink of collapse and you think its economy is more robust than US?
You clearly are so caught up in the USA is bad myth.
Mate keep going, your sounding like Trump more and more every post.
You know, Taiwan, Sth Korea and Ukraine would have been reduced to rubble if not for US presence. As if US decline will be matched by Chinese or Russian generosity and leave their neighbours alone. Your logic is both defeatist and immoral.
The israel/palestinian conflict is rather more complex due to various conflicts of interest. The US election being one such issue. The government has to be seen to be supporting Israel due to political realities. In my opinion, it will shift in a couple of weeks. Israel is reserving the right to hang itself. Thats clearly beyond US influence. But notice, no mention is given to Russian influence in the area and Its support for nut case governments in Syria, Iran, Georgia and Nth Korea.
“We are at the point of nuclear war.” Mate, i have a fountain for sale in Rome. Mates rates. Nth Korea is all bluff, it would be suicidal to attack anyone. China is all bluster over Taiwan, any attempt will reduce its military to burnt crisps. Any attempt by Russia will also see it reduced to charcoal. I dont beleive the leaders in these countries are into self destruction so much as self interest.
I am not being an apologist for the USA, but it has to be stated that a shrill mantra has clouded everyone’s judgment. The only thing that stands between the alternative powers and us is the USA. Russian attempt at empire building has shown everyone the truth of that statement.
Above, solid commentatory, reliably expressing intelligent points of view wrt the issues du jour or in longer context; Bush’s Axis of Evil pronouncement on January 29, 2002, a masterclass example of America’s obsession with dominating the zeitgeist by, to misappropriate Steve Bannon’s well-known observation, flooding the zone with shit. Having never read a book of principles and procedures on how to do it (propaganda), I’m winging it here, but at one level I’m comfortable that it’s about endeavouring to lie as convincingly as possible, and although America is just one of many in this field, its commitment to the process is absolute.
Demonise Iran because… they had the balls to stand up for themselves against foreign interests willing to strip their resources for little compensation. Because they had the balls to chuck the corrupt ruler, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, out and install their own system of government. The hegemon hates countries that demonstrate autonomy and that resist subjugation to their influence and persuasion.
Clearly, the hegemon cannot operate without continuing to identify enemies and to prosecute action against those it deems so, whether of economic or martial nature.
That the American citizenry pay for these recurring acts of criminal bastardry is of zero concern to the warmongers who occupy the White House & the Pentagon; primary issues must be served primarily, including the ongoing support of the major and minor munitions and weapons manufacturers, important corporations who funnel vast sums of money into the pockets of the political classes of all stripes in that country and are viewed with similar reverence as was once afforded pious religious organisations – hah!, the inversion of values is striking and would be hilarious if not for the real-world consequences of this deeply pathological and evil position that currently dominates the economic pyramid in that country – and secondary issues – those that may actually benefit the citizens of that country – garner little to no attention, such is the degree to which that country has sunk into the abyss.
Meanwhile, as in all failing empires, bread and circuses are much in play, as they were in France pre the revolution, as they were in Rome, pre the collapse of that empire, and who knows where else also. Hollywood and its satellites churn pap for consumption, as do sporting leagues and other enterprises, all committed to keeping the majority of that country’s people glued to their seats in hypnotic trance to the flickering screens, beers & popcorn at their sides, and reflective analysis of their country’s circumstances safely barricaded away from any degree of attention.
And all the while, the men in shiny suits adorned with medals and brass buttons fantasise that all they need to do is to take out the ‘enemy’, and all will be well in God’s preferred land of Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.
“Russia is on the brink of collapse…”
From The Economist Oct 10. — “Now that the excitement of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk two months ago has faded, the prevailing narrative has reasserted its grip. Ukrainian forces are retreating in the face of steady, if costly, Russian advances across the front line in the Donbas, thanks to Russia’s vast superiority in troop numbers and firepower.”
Don’t believe The Economist Andy?
How about this from Ukrainska Pravda Sept 2024 — “The Pokrovsk front didn’t just crumble overnight. Since 15 February 2024, when they withdrew from Avdiivka, Ukraine’s defence forces have been retreating towards Pokrovsk – sometimes faster, sometimes slower – almost every week.”
Andy, you need to vary your news sources. Even the warped mainstream media is closer to the facts than your sources living in their mums’ basements.
Andy, I have no problem with you contesting anything I say.
In fact, I welcome it.
But I’ve had a gutful of you contesting your impression of what I say.
You said “Russia is on the brink of collapse and you think its economy is more robust than US?”
I did not say that.
You just imagined I said that.
You created the impression that I said that.
I said “They even lost the economic war against Russia.”
Which they did.
Remember what I said about deliberately engineered perceptions in the US in my first comment?
They created the false perception that Russia had a weak economy that would crumble under the weight of sanctions.
They acted on that false perception.
They started an economic war against Russia.
And they lost.
But do you know the really serious false perception that they have?
That other nations with nuclear weapons will not strike first against the US.
That they can push and push without serious consequences.
That’s why I said that we are on the brink of nuclear war.
How about you start actually reading and then thinking about what others write, instead of reacting like Pavlov’s dogs.
“Steve, i suggest your hatred for USA is clouding your view of the world. Us policies in some areas have been correct and other areas way off the moral compass.”
Good point.
Some are so motivated by their hatred of western democracy that they contextualise (and excuse) the outrageous actions of the most brutal, corrupt and oppressive regimes (that oppose the west).
And with regard to the economic performance of Russia, it is worth noting-
* 18% interest rates
* 10% inflation
* About 16 million people below its poverty line of $5 a day
* A currency that has lost 40% in 2 years
* Europe’s worst record of wealth distribution, as measured by the Gini Coefficient
* A chronic labour shortage, because its working age population is engaged in war rather than working productively to produce prosperity
* A greater proportion of its economy is devoted to the military than any NATO country (even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine)
These facts aren’t indicators of economic success.
AC says “Some are so motivated by their hatred of western democracy that they contextualise (and excuse) the outrageous actions of the most brutal, corrupt and oppressive regimes (that oppose the west).”
Hmm.
I wonder where the Gaza genocide fits into that neat little world-view?
For supporters of the US Empire, the great thing about the Gaza genocide is that it is not an embarrassment. Doesn’t even come close.
Because it never happened.
Even as it continues after 12 horrific months, it never happened.
Even as the US supplies Israel with more bombs and missiles, the US is a shining beacon of liberty bringing pure and uplifting Western values to a grateful world.
Supporters of the US live in a fantasy world.
Oh Steve, another look over there moment? Us action against Iran, a fail. US action in Israel fail. US action to help Taiwan, a win. US support of Ukraine a win. As i keep saying they some right and they get some wrong.
A.C has filled in the details nicely….left out a couple of minor details…..military arsenal reduced by 50%.
“Don’t believe The Economist Andy?
How about this from Ukrainska Pravda Sept 2024 — “The Pokrovsk front didn’t just crumble overnight. Since 15 February 2024, when they withdrew from Avdiivka, Ukraine’s defence forces have been retreating towards Pokrovsk – sometimes faster, sometimes slower – almost every week.”
You obviously cherry picked the Russian version. Did you see the recent fireworks when 4 major ammo dumps in Russia exploded ?
Have you seen how Nth Korea is supplying Russia with ammo and soldiers?
Ukraine has systematically gone after the military infrastructure and oil industry. Russian oil giant Gazprom is going down the drain. They don’t have the parts or skills required to repair the 50% of the refineries Ukraine has hit. Russia has no other export of note. Ukraine does play the military game with finesse, strategic withdrawals that drain the enemy and gorilla tactics have sapped Russian moral. A small win here or there is no victory, look at the total picture and the Russians have no momentum. Winter is approaching and they will make no progress this side of christmas, in fact the Ukraines will totally demoralise them with their drone technology.
Surely your news feeds of note have passed on all this information?
I am not trying to change the narrative, only your blinkered view. Stop trying to do the equivalence scam. If i had to chose between the two, The USA would get my nod. Russia is so integral to a lot of spiteful evil in this world.
*/Its clear that anyone suggesting the Russian economy has overcome the sanctions is swallowing Kremlin propaganda.
The facts say otherwise.
*/Condemnation of Israel’s invasion of Gaza and Lebanon is entirely understandable, it has extended far beyond any sense of proportional response to the terrorist attack of a year ago.
The entire episode is a complete and absolutely tragic debacle .
*/Reasonable people are able to offer a balanced perspective, without lapsing into the predictable narrative- “USA= BAD, all those oppong them= GOOD”
“You obviously cherry picked the Russian version.”
Er, mmm, Andy, that’s the Ukraine version.
So now we have Andy not accepting bad news from Ukraine about the war, and AC relying on data he plucked from who-knows-where to show what a threat to humanity Russia is.
AC — “ Its clear that anyone suggesting the Russian economy has overcome the sanctions is swallowing Kremlin propaganda.The facts say otherwise.”
Facts?
I see no facts.
I see a list of figures that AC could have manufactured himself, because in his usual who-gives-a-hoot-about-context style, AC gives no sources that a careful reader can use to check his assertions.
And as an example of the need to check every piece of data that AC pulls out of a hat, there’s his claim that in Russia “About 16 million people (are) below its poverty line”
As well as hiding from the diligent reader the source of this devastating news, it’s a meaningless statement because it has no context.
Shall we give it context?
From Statista Research Department, Jul 12, 2024 — In 2023, more than 12 million people in Russia lived under the poverty line, marking a considerable decrease compared to the previous year. The number of Russian residents that earned an income below the subsistence minimum was 30 million higher in 2000.
So AC’s figure is false.
And worse still for AC’s case, Russia is actually working to reduce poverty. Successfully. While engaged in a war it tried to avoid.
But Statista gives us context to all this in the form of “Less than nine percent of the population of Russia lived below the national poverty line in 2023… In the US for 2023, around 11.1 percent of the population was living below the national poverty line.”
Wow. It’s no wonder AC doesn’t do context.
Then, caught between a rock and a hard place, AC was forced to concede that “The entire (Gaza) episode is a complete and absolutely tragic debacle .” As indeed it is. But did you notice what was missing?
There was no admission of the role played in the genocide by his favourite superpower.
AC never fails to disappoint.
Steve / AC, the ~11.1% of Americans living below the ‘poverty line’ equates to something around 38 million people. Roughing the numbers, the numbers of folk living in poverty as a percentage of population are equivalent in both American & Russia. ~38 million in the USA, ~13.5 million in Russia. Not a great example to hang one’s argument upon.
One could at least acknowledge that the Russian government is endeavouring to improve circumstances, whereas the American government is predictably doing diddly-squat, instead busily sucking the dicks of the armament industries and propping up a genocidally monstrous regime in the far eastern Mediterranean.
“I see no facts.”
Have you heard of Google?
It’s typical of your need to seek cognitive reinforcement to dismiss inconvenient facts.
If you disagree, post information such as the Russia inflation rate, interest rates, the poverty line, evidence of labour surplus, the proportion of the GDP Russia devotes to the military, evidence that the ruble hasn’t fallen by 40% in 2 years
Point out where Russia ranks on the Gini Coefficient.
Find a European countries that ranks lower for wealth distribution.
You live in denial of Russia’s failure.
Post your rebuttal, but you won’t, you’ll avoid that challenge or you’ll try to change the subject.
And your other assertion is puerile.
If Israel’s response to the terror attack of a year ago had been proportionate, I would have been understanding.
When it is disproportionate, I stop understanding.
That’s the difference, I’m not a mindless zealot who sees international events black and white. There are shades of grey that you ignore in your compulsion to condemn western democracy at every opportunity
At my simpleton level, sunni and shia kill each other and both have terrorist beliefs.
The census should be identifying the numbers and locations of these sects.
Surely, the IDF has killed enough to negotiate the return of the hostages.
When the end of the 20th century saw Pakistan get the bomb I thought these religious nutters could use it.
Family blocks at Borroloola and Strahan. (Get periodic letters about being overgrown)
Sadly, Iran and Israel are religious violent nutters. The jews probably have the bomb, so let’s hope iran doesn’t
A generations-long effort to control the trade routes and natural resources of the middle east and block out any hope of access to the resources except on their terms. Gaza is the inevitable result, as have all the other wars in the region.
AC has a distorted view of how a discussion operates.
He quotes data with no context and no sources, then expects others to do his leg-work for him. It ain’t gunna happen.
The one fact I did check was wrong. False. Deliberately so? A lie? He has not apologised for it or withdrawn it, so who knows?
And of course going down that path is a pointless exercise. We must ask why he’s done it.
He went down this path of describing how weak the Russian economy is in response to my assertion that the US lost its economic war against Russia. That is undeniable. The sanctions failed, made Russia more self-sufficient, and weakened European economies that depend on Russian resources such as gas.
Is all this just an exercise in venting frustration?
AC says he’s not “a mindless zealot who sees international events in black and white”, yet that is exactly what he’s looking like.
Because the US loss of the economic war is undeniable, all that AC has left is to shout “but look at the Russian economy!” It’s mind-numbingly ridiculous. Every country has economic weaknesses. Should we examine them all? Would such an examination achieve anything?
He accuses me of condemning Western democracy at every opportunity, a badge I wear with pride, for reasons that I’ve explained before and will happily explain again, but for him to say on the topic of Gaza that “there are shades of grey” is ludicrous.
It’s the favourite line of those who defend the wife-beater.
And check out his most recent comment. “If Israel’s response to the terror attack of a year ago had been proportionate, I would have been understanding. When it is disproportionate, I stop understanding.”
I had trouble following the logic of that. At first I thought that he was so distraught that he was rambling. Then I realised that he was putting all the blame for the genocide on Israel, and giving a free pass to his favourite superpower who supplies the firepower, and all the liberal democracies that have done nothing substantial to stop the carnage.
AC will say anything to let the US off the hook.
You simply deny facts that are inconvenient.
*/In the past you’ve tried to tell me how to structure my comments
*/ You object to the fact that I make points
*/ Now you want me to post a dozen links.
*/ I’m not interested in helping educate bitter, blinkered apologists for the Putin regime and I’m definitely not dancing to your tune
I knew you weren’t up to the task of dealing with the facts.
“I knew you weren’t up to the task of dealing with the facts.”
But I love facts. I relish the opportunity to deal with facts.
The great thing about facts is that we can use them to develop a picture that has a connection to reality. Only an approximation to reality it must be said, because it’s impossible to have all the facts, but an approximation is better than nothing.
And unfortunately, “nothing” is what I’m having to deal with here.
AC has an aversion to drawing together relevant facts from which he can compose a realistic picture, so I’m having to deal with isolated data items that he hopes will create an impression. But it turns out to only be an image that he wanted to see. A distorted picture. A picture of a Russia in economic decline. A Russia that exists only in his imagination.
And the real Russia?
Statista is an independent organisation comprised of 300 researchers collating finance and trade data from around the globe. Here’s their snapshot of the Russian economy as of July this year.
“The Russian economy is primarily directed by both the private sector and the state. As a member of the BRIC, Russia is currently experiencing an accelerated growth within the economy with a chance of earning a place in the G7 economies. As of the 1990s, a large amount of the country’s industrial and agricultural sectors were privatized, however energy and military production remained with the state for the most part. As a result, the majority of Russian exports consisted of energy products as well as high-tech military equipment.
The effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 took a similar toll on the Russian economy, however it only had short term effects. Russia recovered after 2 years and has since experienced exponential economical growth and productivity due to aggressive and prompt actions from the government, providing Russia with one of the most profitable economies in the world. Additionally, unemployment reached an all-decade low from the recent Russian economic boom, which furthermore implies that there is a slight growth in wages, however is also accompanied by a large worker shortage.”
Perhaps AC does not feel inclined to accept the views of an independent body. Perhaps he would be more inclined to agree with the findings of someone who regards Russia as a rival, or even as an enemy. Someone like, oh, I don’t know… the CIA perhaps?
Here’s another snapshot of the Russian economy from the perspective of PPP, this time from the CIA. The CIA refers to Purchasing Power Parity as “the real GDP”. PPP calculates the effect of economic factors on consumers. The hip pocket factor. They list the PPP of every country as of 2023. The first 4 countries are China, USA, India, then Russia. Australia is 20th, nestled in among such economic luminaries as Poland, Thailand, Iran and Bangladesh.
But what’s really behind AC’s torment over the Russian economy is reports like this from the financial journal Forbes just a few weeks ago.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into Russia from oil and gas sales are fueling Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, and more. Unbeknownst to some diplomats and other decision-makers, energy export revenues drive the massive geo-economic polarization between East and West, as petro and gas dollars pour into the Russian tech sector….Since 2022, Russia has earned some €742 billion from fossil fuel exports, according to Russia Fossil Tracker. After losing the European markets, millions of barrels of discounted Urals brand oil went to China and India. At the same time, natural gas continued to flow to landlocked European countries, including Austria, Czechia, Hungary, and Slovakia. The West never sanctioned the exports of Russian liquified natural gas…While the middle class spends money on restaurants and (mostly) Chinese cars, oligarchs invest at home. The pent-up billions in Russia have fueled a boom reminiscent of the war-time prosperity in St. Petersburg and Moscow during World War I. During that previous conflict, war contracts, bribes, and compensation for the dead and the wounded drove up inflation and contributed to the popular resentment that led to two revolutions and finished off the Russian Empire. For now, the war boom is fueling industrial developments, with unexpected long-term consequences that are unlikely to be welcome in the West… As tax revenues pour in, Moscow’s ambitious mayor Sergey Sobyanin directed cash flows into infrastructure development and tech. There is the highest share of electric buses in Europe (a third of the total), and new metro and high-speed rail lines are spreading to new life-and-work centers that used to be bedroom communities…” and so the article continues.
Of course, all this is not the whole picture, far from it, but it’s a lot closer to reality than AC’s poor attempt at finding solace by surrounding himself with cherry-picked data about Russia’s struggling economy.
Your verbose obfuscation doesn’t disprove a single point I made.
I knew you couldn’t.
Russia –
#/ inflation rate of 10%
#/ interest rates of 20%
#/ a poverty line of $5 a day
#/ a currency that has devalued from 2c to about 1c
#/ more of its economy devoted to the military than any NATO country
#/ poor business investment
#/ an economy that is propped up by HUGE military expenditure
You can’t deal with facts, particularly when they’re expressed concisely
I fail to see one positive thing about Putin or Putin’s Russia.
Naivety of people who think they are ideological left, centrist or far right, in touch with geopolitical events, are very coy on Putin and other authoritarians?
Putin was one of the first to offer condolences after Oct 7 to Netanyahu, while the latter refused to accept a call from Ukraine’s (nominally Jewish) Zelensky; both Putin and Netanyahu are friends with Hungary’s anti-EU pro-Putin & Xi, PM Orban, with whom Fox board’s Tony ‘western civilsation’ Abbott is also familiar (yet claiming to be pro-Ukraine)?
Surely that should make any rational liberal person pause for thought, but no?
I think we can assume that AC was not convinced by those well-known Kremlin mouthpieces — the CIA, Statista and Forbes.
Your original premise was that sanctions have failed and the Russian economy is a success.
I’ve posted the facts that demonstrate this is nonsense.
You are just unable to deal with this
“Your original premise was that sanctions have failed and the Russian economy is a success.”
Dear oh dear.
That’s two false statements now.
This is becoming a habit.
I actually said “They even lost the economic war against Russia, the same Russia that they ridiculed as having an economy smaller than a US state.”
Will you promise to be really really really good and not tell anymore porkies?
Or maybe these are not porkies.
Maybe you are like one or two others here who like to dispute things they think I’ve said (g’day Andy) because they react emotionally to comments instead of responding maturely to comments.
Are you reacting emotionally to comments?
So if Russia has-
*/ Interest rates of 20%
*/ Inflation of 10%
*/ An unsustainable level of military expenditure, that is propping up its economy
*/ A chronic labour shortage because the working age population is engaged in war rather than production
*/ A poverty line of $5 a day
*/ About 20% of its population is still without indoor plumbing
*/ A currency that has lost about 40% of its value in 2 years
…can you explain how Russia has won the economic war?
“can you explain how Russia has won the economic war?”
Two false statements and still no apology, no retraction, no withdrawal.
Please pay attention, because this has already been explained once.
“They created the false perception that Russia had a weak economy that would crumble under the weight of sanctions. They acted on that false perception. They started an economic war against Russia. And they lost.”
They lost because Russia did not crumble.
And what does this tell us about the stats you keep flogging?
They are meaningless.
Are the following signs of a crumbling economy or a strong economy?
*/ Interest rates of 20%
*/ Inflation of 10%
*/ An unsustainable level of military expenditure, that is propping up its economy
*/ A chronic labour shortage because the working age population is engaged in war rather than production
*/ A poverty line of $5 a day
*/ About 20% of its population is still without indoor plumbing
*/ A currency that has lost about 40% of its value in 2 years
I’ve been asking myself for some time now, why is it that AC keeps making a spectacle of himself with meaningless stats?
Then the penny dropped.
In my first comment, to which he reacted, I included this.
“They have lost in Ukraine, as even the Western news media admits.”
Not a peep from AC.
Not a peep about a topic that has excited his imagination for years.
AC needs to go back, read the reports on the Russian economy by the CIA, Forbes, and Statista.
Then, even though he does not want to think about it, even though it’s painful, he should consider the tragic foolishness of Ukraine and the US wanting a military confrontation with Russia.
Then he should sit in a corner and weep.
Meaningless stats? Really? They’re economic statistics (facts) and people use statistics, data, numbers to make assessments about an economy.
I realise you don’t like facts, particularly ones that don’t reinforce your blinkered view of the world.
Can you post some stats that demonstrate Russia’s economic success or even that it isn’t struggling or crumbling ? You won’t.
In a discussion about economics, your speciality is wordy obfuscation rather than dealing with the dozen factual economic indicators
“Can you post some stats that demonstrate Russia’s economic success or even that it isn’t struggling or crumbling?”
Are the reports from the CIA, Forbes and Statista not good enough for AC?
He wants stats.
Something so concise that it’s beyond the point where analysis is useful.
Something that demands no interpretation, no thinking.
Something in dot form to ensure that it remains isolated and cannot contribute to a big picture.
Because if there’s one thing AC hates, it’s a big picture.
Unfortunately for AC, the CIA, Forbes and Statista have provided the big picture, and for AC, it ain’t pretty.
And me? I’m actually quite happy with their big picture.
I realise you enjoy writing paragraph after paragraph of repetition and obfuscation, and get bothered when dealing with concise facts.
Just identify which of the statistics I’ve posted, aren’t relevant to economic analysis.
You won’t
AC, behave.
I just want to sit here and enjoy the big picture.
I mean, it’s just SO SO BIG!
Am I scaring you?
If you participate in a discussion about economics, it becomes somewhat obtuse if you regard economic data, facts and statistics as meaningless.
Only an economic ignoramus would suggest information such as high interest rates, currency devaluation, double digit inflation, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, wealth distribution…are “meaningless” to economic analysis or to a discussion about economic performance.
Congratulations and thank you for proving what was already suspected.
If you participate in a discussion about economics, it becomes somewhat obtuse if you regard reports from teams of professional economic data analysts as meaningless.
Only an economic ignoramus would suggest that reports such as “exponential economical growth and productivity due to aggressive and prompt actions from the government, providing Russia with one of the most profitable economies in the world”, and this “The pent-up billions in Russia have fueled a boom reminiscent of the war-time prosperity in St. Petersburg and Moscow during World War I… For now, the war boom is fueling industrial developments, with unexpected long-term consequences that are unlikely to be welcome in the West…” are meaningless to a discussion about economic performance.
Thanks to AC for providing further evidence of his fear of the big picture.
A lesson for AC.
When using statistics to paint a picture, get as many as are available, or the picture will look like something painted by a chimp.
But then, I suppose there’s nothing to fear in a picture painted by a chimp.
That’s hilarious!
Someone needs a new dictionary.
Flat lining growth, and falling, has never been “exponential”
What is “exponential” is the proportion of its GDP Russia devotes to the military.
Once you’ve looked up the word “exponential”, please let me know how Russia’s growth is meeting this definition.
But you’ll continue to cherry pick press releases rather than looking at evidence, which requires examination of (meaningless?) statistics and facts.
Very entertaining!
Crikey !
AC knows more about economics than professional economic analysts!
My admiration for him knows no bounds.
If you endorse material that claims Russia’s growth is “exponential” , I’m not the one who is displaying economic ignorance.
Can you explain how Russia’s growth is “exponential”?
I you think the flat lining growth might have something to do with Russia’s exponential increase in military expenditure?
Did anyone pick up on what just happened here?
By pulling one word out of expert reports on the Russian economy, by making an issue out of a single word, AC put to bed any doubt that he is incapable of looking at a big picture view of the world.
As for him actually seeking a big picture view, well, …
But I have a very positive view of human nature.
I live in hope.
I will make progress.
It’s simple and here’s my suggestion.
1/. Get beyond cherry picking of press releases
2/. Explain in your own words how 10% inflation 20% interest rates, Europe’s most inequitable distribution of wealth, a currency that has lost about 40% of its value in 2 years, a poverty line of $5 a day, an exponential increase in military expenditure…are just meaningless statistics, (and this instead is a measure of Russia winning the economic war)
3/. And just try to explain why you chose to use exponential as a description of flat lining/ declining economic growth.
Are you up to that? No
But but but…”exponential” was not my word!
I knew you weren’t up to using your own words to justify your position in a discussion about economics.
You’re not up to it.
++++++++++
If you choose to cherry pick an entirely inaccurate quote, own up.
You’re not up to it
Now you’re repeating yourself.
It’s not a good look.
But here’s something to cheer you up.
We know you love stats, so you’ll really love this — look what happens when isolated stats are merged to make a picture.
First we take this; Moscow, March 6 (Reuters) – The number of Russians living below the poverty line in 2023 dropped to 13.5 million from 14.3 million a year earlier, with the poverty rate falling to 9.3% from 9.8%.
Then we add this from the US Census, The US official poverty rate in 2022 was 11.5 percent.
Ain’t that wonderful?
What a picture it paints!
I’m starting to come on board with you on this one.
Maybe there’s more to stats than I thought. 🙂
Hilarious!
Is that something I haven’t mentioned?
When I said there were about 15 million people below Russia’s (meagre) poverty line of $5 a day , you seemed to take issue with the comment
Now you’re repeating the information I’ve already posted.
For some odd reason you cherry pick press releases rather than thinking yourself. You seem to do this because you want cognitive reinforcement.
You’re embarrassing yourself and not up to an informed discussion about economics.
“Now you’re repeating the information I’ve already posted.”
Except you have not.
That’s another porkie for the tally.
Where are we at now with the tally?
You very carefully omitted the poverty rate.
And I can understand why.
The Russian poverty rate of 9.3% looks pretty good against the US rate of 11.5%.
Particularly when we consider that Russia was on its knees when Putin took over.
His success in transforming the Russian economy has been extraordinary.
Quite possibly unmatched in history.
I originally said –
About 16 million people below its poverty line of $5 a day
Have you added anything to this, other than a correction of a minor rounding error
And can you advise of the margin of error in the statistics you’re using?
(The statistical margin of error with be sufficient to make my point entirely accurate)
Can you come up with your own words to dispel your claim that the following is meaningless? Interest rates of 20%, inflation rate of 10%, currency devaluation of 40%, Europe’s WORST record of wealth distribution (etc)
Can you explain how flat line/declining growth is exponential?
You’re not very good with facts are you?
“I originally said –
About 16 million people below its poverty line of $5 a day”
I hate being pedantic, you know that’s not my style, but that is not a percentage.
When that statement is put against the US poverty rate of 11.5%, (which you did not because that’s the start of a big picture — very scary) it means nothing.
But the Russian rate of 9.3% against the US rate of 11.5% stands out like a beacon.
It paints a picture.
It tells a story.
A story about you.
So I’ll ask again — what’s the porkie tally now?
1/. Russia’s poverty line is about $5 a day. That’s underdeveloped nation standard. But many millions don’t even reach that meagre amount.
2/. You claimed currency devaluation of 40% is meaningless to economic analysis. Do you maintain that?
3/. Ditto with punishingly high interest rates. Is a high rate of inflation meaningless to economic analysis?
4/. Is Europe’s worst distribution of wealth meaningless to economic analysis?
5/. Is devoting more (than any NATO country) of a countries GDP to the military meaningless to economic analysis?
6/. Do you have a dictionary that explains “exponential” means flat lining/declining?
7/. What is the margin of error in your precision of claiming my figure is wrong – on the millions below Russia’s poverty line?
8/. Are you capable of seeking information beyond your comfort zone? No
“What is the margin of error in your precision of claiming my figure is wrong – on the millions below Russia’s poverty line?”
Yet another porkie.
This has become ridiculous.
And AC has added the concealment of relevant data to his list of shame.
Why would I continue a discussion while putting up with kids’ stuff like that?
How AC survived childhood without being snotted every day will remain one of life’s enduring mysteries.
He exposed himself as a serial fabricator at “Who are the narcissists” so I suppose I should not be surprised.
But all good things come to an end, so this discussion is over until he give us a tally of his porkies.
He should look at it this way — confession is good for the soul.
*/ You dismiss economic facts as “meaningless” in an economic discussion.
*/ You cherry pick press releases rather than try to personally understand the subject
*/ You even (bizarrely) use “exponential” as a synonym for decline/flat line
*/ You don’t understand that economics is about data, analysis and (apparently meaningless) statistics
*/ You simply hate facts and seek cognitive reinforcement
*/ You’re out of your depth, pop back to the shallow end (of the gene pool)
I think it would be correct to assume that AC is not quite ready for confession at the moment.
But I’m patient.
I can wait
Anyone notice that when Steve digs his claws in that the almost inevitable result is that he drives other commenters away?
AC, it’s not worth arguing with him, he obviously thinks he know all the answers and can’t tolerate anyone contradicting him. He’s the AIMN troll.
And…
“He’s the AIMN troll.”
Keep ’em coming GL.
That’s another one for Steve’s Greatest Hits.
But hey!
What are you doing here?
You’re supposed to be over at The Pursuit of Happiness, brushing up on your history.
I should thank GL for giving me the opportunity to explain why I dig my claws in.
GL should have noticed that there’s a pattern here.
Contrary to his claim that “he… can’t tolerate anyone contradicting him” I actually enjoy a robust discussion because like most here, I love learning.
The pattern he missed was that I reserve my claws for those that show disrespect for the site, or for the topic, or for other commenters, or for readers in general.
It’s not difficult to come here with a pleasant attitude.
…thank you for proving my point that you can’t get away from the fact that you love the sound of your own voice. You couldn’t just leave it at the October 22, 2024 at 9:09 am comment you just had keep going.
“The pattern he missed was that I reserve my claws for those that show disrespect for the site, or for the topic, or for other commenters, or for readers in general.”
Pot calling the kettle black.
Will you be able resist the urge to get the last word in or can you let it rest?
Crikey GL!
You call someone a troll and expect a pat on the head?
And just for good measure you assumed to read my mind.
You did notice, I hope, that I did not lower myself to name-calling.
I had a point that deserved explanation and you had conveniently made yourself available.
I think the problem here is that you’ve forgotten the Golden Rule of blogging.
It ain’t for the faint-hearted or the thin-skinned.
Go back to your reply to Sully at The Pursuit of Happiness, and ask yourself, could I have done better?
Let’s be honest, it was pretty ordinary.
Don’t deal it out if you can’t accept what comes back.
Roll with the punches.
Try a bit of humour instead of insults.
Life’s too short for that.
I’ve previously allowed you to have the last word, because I just couldn’t be bothered.
Not on this occasion.
You’ve proved to misrepresent, deny and dismiss economic facts in an economic discussion.
You cherry pick.
And I’ve demonstrated that you’re out of you depth…and humourless too
“…and humourless too”
C’mon AC, don’t be like that.
How about this one?
“AC, behave. I just want to sit here and enjoy the big picture. I mean, it’s just SO SO BIG!
Am I scaring you?”
I know, I know, it wasn’t one of me best, but at least I tried. 🙂
Don’t bother. You’ve proved to be compulsive about getting the last word and lacking in integrity in discourse.
You’re way out of your depth when trying to debate economics.
I’ll point that out for as long as as reply.
SD, given AC’s a fearless protagonist wedded to his POVs and unlikely to do the puppy roll and ask for a conciliatory tummy tickle, just because, ya know, not to let animosities intrude into this fascinating joust, and given that you’re both finely honed specimens of intelligence, albeit coming from different quarters, (and thirdly) given the ad hom barb that suggests you’re a bit lacking in the funny bone dept., just wondering if you can wrinkle in a bit more on the humour… if it helps. A bit of Bill Bailey or Shaun Micallef. Even Lewis Black. Steer away from the slapstick, no Marx Bros., no Benny Hill, nothing gross.
For the record, even though you’ve correctly pointed out that blogging “ain’t for the faint-hearted or the thin-skinned,” I disagree with GL; you ain’t no troll, man, if by that word is meant “Trolling is when someone deliberately tries to upset others online.” [https://www.esafety.gov.au/]
Thanks Canguro for the suggestions, but you might have over-estimated my niceness.
Sometimes the urge to upset gets really really strong! 🙂
I’d suggest your urge is beyond strong.
Have you heard of obsessive compulsive disorders?
It seems to be “Pick on AC Day”.
I’m not here to stick up for him, but those of us left over from the old Cafe Whispers days will know that AC will not press a point unless he has the evidence to back it up.
He has never been known to lose an argument.
AC, please stop.
You’re hurting me.
The pain is almost unbearable. 🙂
Steve, as i said, AC has never lost an argument. 😉
I think Roswell, there may have been an occasion in 2008 when I was wrong.
These days I try to limit my comments to issues that are beyond the daily political cycle.
I also tend not to overlook apologists for brutal fascists. Particularly when they apply high standards to democratic nations, which they ignore when discussing expansionist autocratic regimes.
For example the ill informed and compulsive responses we see on this thread.
“It seems to be “Pick on AC Day”.”
Roswell, you’ve cut me to the quick!
And brought back memories I’ve tried desperately to quash.
Where were you back at NATO Provoked Putin when I was tag-teamed by about six of ‘em?
When I needed a shoulder to lean on!
A sympathetic ear!
You must have missed that one.
Because that’s one that AC lost.
Not once. Twice.
Which must be something of a record.
He retired hurt in November, came back for a second shot at the title in February, threw two left jabs that missed, and retired hurt again.
Ahh, the memories.
Roswell, in regard to AC never losing an argument, I think we can safely assume that with his declared intention to have the last word on this one, plus his name-calling, he certainly has not won this one.
This is not the behaviour of a winner.
But apart from that, more importantly, what on earth are we doing now?
This has degenerated into a black mark on the site. It’s all very sad.
Hilarious, delusional and compulsive!
Congratulations- a trifecta.
If, during a discussion about economics, you state that information, data, facts and statistics about economics are “meaningless”… you’ve certainly lost at that point.
If you use “exponential” as a synonym for flatline/decline…you’ve lost again.
If you cherry pick press releases, rather than figure out how to use your own words to justify and explain your position…you’ve lost a third time.
I could go on, and I will if you deny the facts.
But my display of magnanimity will be clear, all you have to do is unequivocally retract your claim that economic statistics are “meaningless” in an economic discussion, and accept that Russian economic indicators demonstrate that Russia is struggling under economic sanctions.
Cuba of kennedy ukraine of putin. neither or both legitimate???