Labor Miles Behind After Queensland Votes…

As with every state election there are no implications for the next federal election. I know this because everyone who doesn’t like a particular result will tell you this and those who like the result are too busy celebrating to tell you anything.

However, I can’t help but wonder about the rhetoric around the idea that federal Labor is in trouble in Queensland and this could have terrible consequences for the upcoming election. I mean if the swing in last night’s state election were repeated then it would mean that Labor would lose somewhere between zero and one seats to the LNP and they’d possibly pick up a seat or two off the Greens, so all up, it would make no difference.

Of course, I am only talking about Queensland because the various commentary has been treating it as a special case and suggesting that Labor really needs to do something to win over our northern cousins. Given that Labor has only one seat that the LNP could reasonably target federally, it seems like their efforts would be better spent winning over NSW by passing laws that allow State of Origin matches to be decided by popular vote.

If the swing were repeated nationally on a uniform basis, then Labor would be in trouble. In saying that, I’m not suggesting that it would be repeated because, well, swings are never uniform and there are always things that mean that various electorates may defy expectations. This can be caused by such things as a popular local member or the fact that one party has certain plans for it that the electorate don’t actually like. I’m not going to suggest that some electorates may not like having a nuclear plant built there without consultation because I may be accused of being an ABC journalist who has an agenda and there was plenty of consultation about where those nuclear plants were going… it just wasn’t with any of the local people until after the decision had been announced. Besides, there was no need for consultation because, as Mr Dutton said, how does anyone know that they’d be against it?

The other interesting thing from last night’s result was the performance of the Greens. As yet nobody has come out and said that there are no federal implications for the next federal election and the fact that Max Chandler-Mather lives in the seat they lost won’t mean that he’s under threat but I’m sure that it’s only a matter of time before someone from the Greens says that it was Labor’s refusal to negotiate with them that led to the change of government…

And speaking of no seats, Pauline Hanson’s One Notion Party seems to have recaptured its past irrelevance. Yes, one has to respect Pauline’s principles. While it was the Liberals that started the process which saw her spend time in jail, it’s Labor that she’s said she’d never support. She’s a forgiving soul. Anyway, again, no federal implications and I expect Pauline to be returned to the Senate where she can point out how much taxpayer money is being wasted because it doesn’t go to her.

So, what happens next? Which will be the first promise broken or will Crisafulli surprise everyone by keeping his promises? On what day will the new government say that the Budget’s a mess and we can’t keep those 50 cent fares. As for changes to abortion laws, we said that we had no plans to change them and we still don’t but the Katter Party wants a vote and it’s the sort of thing that needs a conscience vote and we still have no plans but, as Robbie Burns, wrote “the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft a-gley.”

And even though there are no federal implications, what will happen on Insiders when people start to speculate about the implications?

Whatever the future holds for the Albanese government, I’d suggest that this is a terrific result for them. At last they have a mainland state government that they can blame for what’s going wrong in that particular state without worrying about the terrible look of a party fighting amongst itself.