Update at 8:00 am, 3 July 2016
At 8:00 am on 3 July, there are around nine Decider seats that are too close to call. As shown in my diagram below, the most likely outcome right now – based on votes counted to date, and including seats that are too close to call is:
- LNP with 74 seats (although Peter Dutton’s previously safe seat is now in doubt)
- Labor with 71 seats
- Minors/Independents – 5 seats (Katter, Wilkie, McGowan, Bandt and a Xenophoner)
No matter which way you cut and slice it, the LNP have been thrashed. They may hold onto government, but if they do, it will be by the skin of their teeth and/or in a minority government.
Seats in the Balance
There are around nine seats that are still too close to call – including one where there is literally five votes in it. In addition, Minister for saying “We’ve stopped the boats” – one PDuddy – has caused a previously safe LNP seat to be in doubt. Here’s the latest count details:
- Batman (Vic) – 70.6% of the vote is counted. Currently 51.5% to the ALP and 48.5% to the Greens.
- Capricornia (Qld) – 76.6% of the vote is counted. Currently 50.7% to the ALP and 49.3% to the LNP.
- Chisholm (Vic) – 67.7% of the vote counted. There is literally 5 votes difference in the count. Not 5%. Not 0.5%. Five votes. It’s 50%/50% between the ALP and the LNP.
- Cowan (WA) – 71.8% of the vote counted. Currently 50.1% to the ALP and 49.9% to the LNP.
- Forde (Qld) – 69.6% of the vote counted. Currently 50.7% to the ALP and 49.3% to the LNP.
- Gilmore (NSW) – 80.2% of the vote counted. Currently 50.2% to the LNP and 49.8% to the ALP.
- Hindmarsh (SA) – 74.5% of the vote counted. Currently 50.2% to the ALP and 49.8% to the LNP.
- Melbourne Ports (Vic) – 60.4% of the vote counted. There’s a three way race here between the ALP, the LNP and the Greens. The ALP in the lead in an ALP v LNP contest – but it’s unclear what the count is with the Greens.
- Petrie (Qld) – 71.5% of the vote counted. The LNP are ahead on this one with 51.9% of the vote so far.
According to the AEC, there will be no counting again now until next Tuesday – so no more news until then.
The Deciders rule
As I’ve written previously, while there were technically 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives this election, the reality is that the vast majority of electorates are considered to be ‘safe’ seats – meaning they won’t be changing hands, because, well, they almost never do. This means that the outcome of yesterday’s election will actually be determined by just over a third of electorates – the Deciders. These are typically electorates which either have a high proportion of swinging voters in them (marginal seats and a few fairly safe seats) plus electorates where there is a well-known and well-liked Independent/Minor-party candidate running.
As a result, when you’re looking at the election outcome from last night, it’s really only the outcome in the Decider seats that matters. So I’ve created the following Balance of Power Meter to track how the election outcome is going based primarily on the results in the Decider seats – rather than all seats – as it’s a more accurate proxy of how both parties are tracking. (I am keeping an eye on the safe seats as well and adjust the chart if any of them decide to perform out of character. So far the LNP lost one – Wyatt Roy’s seat – and may possibly lose Peter Dutton’s seat.) I am continuing to update my Balance of Power Meter – so check back in (make sure you refresh the page) for regular updates on progress.
Decider seats
My list of 54 Decider seats shown below is based on the ABC’s Antony Green’s list of Key seats plus I have added:
- Cowper – Rob Oakeshott’s seat – as recent polls suggest he’s in within cooee of an upset in this seat; and
- Warringah – Tony Abbott’s seat – enough said.
I’ve included running totals for each group to show where they end up, which I will update as the night progresses.
a) Decider seats won by the LNP in 2013 – 32 seats
This includes: Banks (NSW): Bass (Tas); Bonner (Qld); Boothby (SA); Braddon (Tas); Brisbane (Qld); Burt (new seat in WA); Capricornia (Qld); Corangamite (Vic); Cowan (WA); Cowper (NSW); Deaken (Vic); Dunkley (Vic); Eden-Monaro (NSW); Forde (Qld); Gilmore (NSW); Herbert (Qld); Hindmarsh (SA); La Trobe (Vic); Lindsay (NSW); Lyons (Tas); Macarthur (NSW); Macquarie (NSW); Mayo (SA); Murray (Vic); New England (NSW); Page (NSW); Petrie (Qld); Reid (NSW); Robertson (NSW); Solomon (NT) and Tony Abbott’s seat – Warringah (NSW).
Outcome in 2016: Latest Number of 2013 LNP Decider Seats won by:
The LNP: 15
The ALP: 10
Other: 01
Unknown: 06
b) Decider seats won by the ALP in 2013 – 18 seats
This includes: Barton (NSW); Batman (Vic); Bendigo (Vic); Bruce (Vic); Chisholm (Vic); Dobell (NSW); Grayndler (NSW); Greenway (NSW); Lilley (Qld); Lingiari (NT); McEwen (Vic); Melbourne Ports (Vic); Moreton (Qld); Parramatta (NSW); Paterson (NSW); Perth (WA); Richmond (NSW); and Wills (Vic).
Outcome in 2016: Latest Number of 2013 ALP Decider Seats won by:
The LNP: 00
The ALP: 15
Other: 00
Unknown: 03
c) Decider seats won by minor parties and independent candidates in 2013 – 4 seats
This includes: Denison (won by independent candidate Andrew Wilkie in Tas); Fairfax (won by Clive Palmer of PUP fame in Qld); Indi (won by independent candidate Cathy McGowan); and Melbourne (won by Andrew Bandt from the Greens in Vic).
Outcome in 2016: Latest Number of 2013 ‘Other’ Decider Seats won by:
The LNP: 01 (from PUP)
The ALP: 00
Other: 03
Unknown: 00
Safe Seats
For a full list of all 150 seats up for election see the AEC’s list. Any seat that I haven’t listed above, is classed as a Safe Seat in my Balance of Power Meter (although the AEC may have classed some of them as ‘Fairly safe’).
Update: The LNP have lost a Safe Seat – Wyatt Roy’s seat – to the ALP. They may also lose Peter Dutton’s seat.
This article was first posted on ProgressiveConversation.
[textblock style=”7″]
Like what we do at The AIMN?
You’ll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight.
Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes!
Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be greatly appreciated.
You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969
[/textblock]
