I know I wrote yesterday that I was packing up my ‘election night’ tracking desk, having already called the outcome. However curiosity as to how the remaining ‘hot seats’ were tracking got the better of me this evening. So I pulled the election desk out of the cupboard and did some quick analysis on the latest tally numbers to see how close we are to knowing where those remaining few seats are going to fall. Here’s the post-script to my final update for those still following…
I’m calling both Melbourne Ports and Hindmarsh for the ALP. (I’m late to the party on Melbourne Ports – others called it a few days ago, but due to one in three votes being cast as declaration votes rather than on polling day, and the strong swing to the LNP in postal votes, I held off calling it until now.)
To my mind, there are now only four seats where I believe the outcome is uncertain – Capricornia, Cowan, Flynn and Herbert. Based on my projections, both Capricornia and Flynn will most likely go to the LNP – but the margin is still close enough not to be able to call these as any more than ‘likely’.
That leaves Herbert and Cowan. According to my calculations, it’s more probable that they will go to the LNP than to Labor – BUT the projected margin is so tight, it could still go either way. Of the two really tight seats – both won by the LNP in 2013 – Herbert is the seat Labor are most likely to steal.
Taking these latest numbers into account, my Balance of Power meter now shows:
- 74 certain seats for the LNP with two seats highly likely to go their way, and a further two seats that are too close to call for either the LNP or Labor;
- 67 certain seats for the ALP with the 2 extra seats noted above as outside chances; and
- 5 seats to Minor Parties/Independents (Katter, Greens, NXT, McGowan and Wilkie).
In the end – as I said in my update yesterday – regardless of how the remaining four ‘hot seats’ fall out, the LNP will be able to form government – and most likely a majority one, albeit with the tightest of tight margins and a hostile Senate.
Here’s my latest Balance of Power Meter:
(If you’re interested in seeing earlier updates and a description of the difference between Decider and safe seats, see my earlier post. )
Is this setting the tone for the next three years?
I guess it makes sense that the aftermath of the second longest election campaign in Australian history would be a fortnight-long election tally – which is likely how long it will be before the final outcome for our House of Representatives is pronounced by the AEC. But you have to wonder whether this is just the way things are going to be for the next three years – glacially slow, but without the ‘steady’.
Buckle in for an interesting three years folks.