By Denis Bright
Cheered on by rhetoric from the various branches of the Murdoch Media, the LNP is poised for victory in Queensland on 26 October 2024. A close result to follow in the next national elections. A more balanced critical perspective on democratic processes has yet to be consolidated to replace the auctioneering style of adversarial politics with its seductive populist rhetoric.
Australia’s Public Service Commission released a survey in 2023 to monitor the level of trust in national institutions. There are low levels of trust in political parties (only 29 percent). Public funding of mainstream political parties has distanced them from grassroots concerns. The Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ) notes the extent of this public support for registered political parties:
For state elections and by-elections held during the 2024-25 financial year, including the 2024 state general election, the election funding rates are:
• for candidates – $3.33 for each formal first preference vote
• for registered political parties – $6.66 for each formal first preference vote for each eligible candidate.
A quarter of the population surveyed admits a limited or slight understanding of democratic processes.
Closer examination of the level of each of these categories of understanding of democratic processes is an assessment of varying levels of satisfaction with democratic processes:
For a quarter of the electorate with a self-perceived limited understanding of democratic processes, there is a willingness to accept the brand-new world offered by political marketing processes. There are occasional tidal waves of populist triumphs every few years in Queensland.
Back on 24 March 2012, the LNP’s tidal wave result brought a parliament produced a parliament of 89 members where the potential opposition was reduced to seven Labor members, two conservative members of Katter’s Australia Party (KAP) in Dalrymple and Mt. Isa as well as two Independents in Nicklin and Gladstone.
Swings against Labor after preferences exceeded 20 percent in three electorates gained by the LNP.
Current opinion polling in Queensland offers the threat of a similar level of political volatility as summarized from the Poll Bludger site (11 September 2024):
- The Brisbane Times has published a state voting intention results from the Queensland components of Resolve Strategic’s monthly national polls from June through to September. This suggests seemingly no end to Labor’s slide, their primary vote down three points from February-to-May to 23%, with the LNP up one to 44%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady at 8%. While the size of the minor party and independent vote allows for a wide range of uncertainty, I would conservatively put the LNP’s two-party lead at 58-42 based on these primary votes. The sample for the poll was 939.
- Nine’s television news reports a RedBridge Group poll showing the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, the least bad result for Labor government in some time. However, all that’s reported beyond that the Labor is at 29% on the primary vote and the LNP 42%. RedBridge Group director Kos Samaras relates that Labor is in “a very strong position along the Brisbane River,” but “travel out further from that and it gets very ugly.”
- The aforementioned Wolf & Smith results were not far off Resolve Strategic’s: Labor 24%, LNP 42%, Greens 12% and One Nation 8%, with the LNP leading 57-43 on two-party preferred. The poll was conducted August 6 to 29 from a sample of 1724.
Writing for the Courier Mail before the transition back to a Labor Minority Government in 2015, journalist Lorann Downer correctly interpreted the auctioneering style of LNP communications:
The Can-Do brand, which emerged during Newman’s run for Brisbane lord mayor in 2004, was skilfully crafted and marketed. The brand name is catchy, memorable and meaningful… The brand name is also the brand promise; that action-man Newman will get things done. During the campaign, the brand promise was cleverly brought to life with images of Newman energetically filling potholes in roads.
With the vast resources available to the LNP from both public and corporate funding, voters in Queensland can expect a personalized letter from the LNP with attached postal vote application forms that are returnable to a Postal Vote Application Centre (PVA) which is a post office box operated by the LNP to harvest votes from more apathetic constituents. Just how this practice is compatible with the requirements of the Electoral Act and the ECQ’s commitment to transparent campaigning processes is difficult to understand.
Labor’s best defence is continuing to offer an updated Plan for the Future in juxtaposition with the absence of detail in the LNP’s policy alternatives. Treasurer Cameron Dick has set a high standard to finance a responsible commitment to social housing, relief for the homeless, alternative energy as well as cost of living relief in electricity changes and urban public transport (Budget Paper 2 for 2024-25).
Fortunately, increases in mineral royalties once opposed by the LNP brought a state budget surplus in 2023-24 have added to the authenticity of the budget parameters.
With 45 per cent of Queensland state revenue derived from Canberra in GST allocations and grants, informed constituents should be asking which areas of state expenditure should be curtailed to restore an ideological commitment to a more balanced budget in this era of cost-of-living politics with worse to follow if Peter Dutton makes it to the Lodge in 2025.
The loss of the Miles Government to the LNP would be a disaster for Queenslanders. Current capital works in the LNP’s regional heartland was made possible by increases in mineral and gas royalties which must not be handed back to the corporate sector. The 2024-25 budget is delivering $1,300 in electricity bill credits as part of an overall $3.74 billion cost-of-living relief package and urgent attention to crime hotspots which are ignored by the negativity of LNP political marketing strategies.
As some former ministers in the Newman Government (2012-15) plan their return to the corridors of power, expect the swings to the LNP to be greatest in the Labor heartlands that warm to LNP’s Law and Order Agendas. Some resistance can still be expected to the LNP in environmentally aware electorates if Labor and the Greens can offer a more united front of co-operative opposition to far-right political fundamentalism. agendas.
Regrettably, the Greens are too interested in defeating Labor members in inner-city electorates. Any united front with the Greens would require more campaigning efforts in disadvantaged outer – metro and regional areas where political populism is deeply entrenched through the influence of preference allocations to the LNP by One Nation and other far-right parties.
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This article is a good sequel to Denis’ article on Disadvantage in Regional Queensland.The Labor Government has been more than fair in $2.5 billion in capital works for Toowoomba, the Darling Downs and Outback Queensland in 2024-25, This is ten percent of the whole capital works programme for Queensland. The work of the SW Hospital and Health Services is beyond reproach with its outstanding efforts in preventative health commitments (https://www.southwest.health.qld.gov.au/hospitals-and-health-centres)
Unique times politically and media wise reflecting last &/or 19thC, especially QLD and it’s political DNA?
Replicating US GOP and related fossil fueled faux ‘free market’ think tanks and white Christian nationalist ideology, with explicit support of corporate or RW media.
The rot started with Joh Bjelke*, subsided then rebooted with Howard, Murdoch led media, with input from the US linked think tanks etc.
A moment in time with a Murdoch RW Sky led footprint in regions, ageing demographics ie. above median age in regions dominate, still mostly retired, less educated/low info skips whose formative years were white Australia, antipathy towards the ‘other’, both modern migrants &/or indigenous and change……while being obsessed about and deflected by their own self interest.
*A simple descriptor for how Abbott’s favourite Hungarian regime works, or not….
Cameron Dick as Treasurer is one of the stars of Queensland politics. Compare his leadership skills with the options from the LNP’s Shadow Treasurer and there is a recipe for bad times ahead if the opinion polls are spot on the mark.
I was shocked by the negativity of a brochure from an aspiring LNP candidate in Brisbane’s Inner West. The Greens have just two state members in Queensland and have no ministerial positions as the Q Government is a majority government. What nonsense to claim that inner city seats like Maiwar have been held back because the Greens have too much influences by their victory in the state seat of Maiwar and the federal seat of Ryan. It seems that we are back in the Joh era with warnings of crime and chaos in the streets while the Miles Government has no idea on how to manage its own budget according to this A4 leaflet from the LNP. Such populist myths are a sign of dangerous regression ahead in Q Politics. I like the idea of a united front to keep the LNP out of government even if ministerial spots have to be shared with Green and Independent candidates.
Blaming crime on Labor and the Greens is sheer propaganda. They are not serious about stopping crime the LNP brochures tells us. Will future LNP ministers be performing citizens arrests as in the Wild West movies from the American Frontiers?
Denis, Thank you for an interesting article.
I don’t think so! Not anymore.
That only means that a quarter of the population is aware of their limited understanding. Which leaves broadly three quarters of the population who don’t know about, or won’t admit to their fundamentally deficient understanding.
Seriously: a little straw poll a few years ago revealed that none of those I questioned had much to say about the Separation of Powers. Nobody I know personally can (be bothered to) meaningfully elaborate on any difference between constitutional democracy and simple majoritarian populism.
And that’s just the hoi polloi. But what do we expect, if even prominent political scientists like Chantal Mouffe sing the praises of Leftwing populism.
I happened to watch the second-last QandA, when Roxane Gay raised the constitutional acceptability of Donald Trump with George Brandis. Brandis very pointedly refused to be drawn on that subject and even insinuated undemocratic motives on the part of Gay for trying to go there. And that man is a silk, and was the federal attorney general.
Obvious questions about the constitutional permissibility of the LNP Sports Rorts saga remain studiously ignored – by both sides of politics, and at continuing great expense to the tax payer.
As Frank Bongiorno writes in his review of Bulldozed, Niki Savva diagnosed that “Some, including Morrison himself, appear not to have even a Year Nine civics class understanding of parliamentary government.”
Which is a diagnosis I fully agree with – and have made posts about, including here on The AIMN. I can’t find these posts now – but I know that they included a link to the NSW Parliament Hansard, where then premier Iemma took LNP candidate Peter Debnam to task for not being able even only to place the expression “Separation of powers”. And the manager for Debnam’s failed candidature? Scotty from Marketing!
It seems fairly clear that there really are only very few people with any functional understanding of, and respect for, in particular, constitutional, representative and liberal democracy and its demands, requirements and identifiable weaknesses and shortcomings.
And that does not bode well!
The LNP is comfortable about the preference flows from One Nation and other far-right parties. Thanks to the Labor candidates like Dave Kerrigan who took Labor’s campaign across the outback in Maranoa. In some townships the Greens failed to gain a single vote.because the LNP’s campaign efforts were so strongly directed against environmental issues.
Outback and regional communities are in financial and medical distress yet by recent
traditions vote solidly for the LNP.
Your probably right Arnd. Thanks for taking the time to comment.
Scaring people about criminal activity is an LNP communication strategy to win votes. The Brisbane LNP Council has spent a fortune on opening up the Witton Barracks at Indooroopilly for bookings by community organizations but the corporate firm managing this site keeps the security lights off to invite anti-social behaviour around the precinct which is adjacent to Indooroopilly Station. The Green MP for the state seat of Maiwar cannot be blamed for this neglect. Regrettably, historic Tighnabriaich Mansion was excised by the Witton Barracks in 1998 and sold off by the Howard Government as a private residence. It should have been kept as a public reception centre to earn income for the Queensland Government (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tighnabruaich,_Indooroopilly).
The LNP ignores Australia’s political history of progressive government intervention to overcome the tyranny of distance. Colonial Australians were proud of the extent of government intervention to remove the divide between city and country. It’s time for the National Party to break ranks with the Liberals.
Denis does a great job breaking down the current political scene in Queensland, highlighting how media influence and strategic campaigning are shaping the upcoming elections. The analysis is well-researched, offering a clear view of the challenges for both Labor and the LNP. It’s an engaging read that thoughtfully critiques how political marketing and funding affect democratic processes, making it relevant for anyone interested in Queensland’s future.
I see the LNP Q Candidate for Maiwar is campaigning on her military record.
Naval brass is offering political comment in support of AUKUS with appropriate media releases and interviews to support this wasteful expenditure which will break the Australian economy for two generations ahead:
Look at this political nonsense over AUKUS in the financial review: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/submariner-in-charge-of-aukus-says-the-debate-is-being-hijacked-20240726-p5jwuj
Are Australians being placed back in the Colonial Age of the six naval governors of NSW when Australia was seized from the indigenous people by military force?
Arnd’s comment was helpful but progressive change is possible.
Economic and policy management processes are too complicated to be left to populist booklets like the LNP’s booklet entitled the Right Priorities for Queensland’s Future which commences with law and order in the old Joh traditions.
Neoliberalism and austerity politics as practiced by the LNP a decade ago always widen the social divide unless moderated by policy finesse as practised by Queensland Treasury under the current Labor Government.
The Journal of International Economics has a free search engine for readers who want to resolve these issues relating to growing disadvantage in neoliberal society.
LNP candidates need to check their assumptions that justify their enthusiasm for repeating the errors of the Newman Government.
This new article is ahead of its time as it is dated December 2024 from Structural Change and Economic Dynamics: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0954349X24001334
“Policy measures such as progressive taxation, regulatory reforms, and asset-building programs for marginalized communities are crucial in fostering equitable wealth distribution and creating inclusive societies”
Cameron Dick is one of Queensland’s best treasurers. It was the LNP and the Minerals Council which rejected increase in mineral royalties on ideological grounds.
The Miles Government has been so generous to the regions as shown in Budget Paper 3 for Capital Investment: https://budget.qld.gov.au/budget-papers/#budget-paper-3 with a statewide capital works programme of $23 billion in a state budget of $91 billion-45 percent of all this expenditure is derived from Canberra in GST allocation and special grants.
Labor should be winning the next election by a landslide again but the mainstream media is running an anti-Labor campaign which is being repeated by every LNP candidate with a commitment to job cuts and austerity once again.
Even Stephen:
Thank you, Stephen – and, yes, progressive change is always possible.
But how likely is it? And if it does occur, how much of an ameliorating effect will it have? Will incessant tinkering around the edges create the progress that we need? Will it provide the results that might convince even those still undecided about or outright opposed to (social-democratic) reform?
My contention is that the left-of-centre, social-democrat reform agenda is a perennial reiteration of “too little, too late”, and has been for as long as I can remember – i.e. since the mid-seventies, when, as teenage members of the Socialist Youth in what was then W.Germany, we took it upon ourselves to deride the SPD and their 1959 Third Way agenda as hapless Spezialdemokraten.
Nothing much has changed: the neo-liberal Hawke and Keating administrations, Blair in the UK, Gerhard “Gazprom Gerd” Schröder in Germany, Rudd, Gillard, Albo and Chalmers, back to Scholz in Germany and Starmer in the UK – none of them are at all capable of even only thinking beyond capitalism.
Yet, according to my long-established understanding of political economy and political philosophy, moving beyond capitalism is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for our generating successful responses to the challenges of the 21st century and substantive resolutions for the problems that have been allowed to compound over the last five decades or more.
Relying on national legislatures and governments trying to reform (or “house train”) global corporate finance capitalism is necessarily a forlorn hope. But considering the influence of corporate lobbyists, and the promise of often very lucrative post-political appointments held out to politicians, I for one don’t hold my breath waiting for the kind of revolutionary agenda that I consider necessary to emerge from the Labor leadership.
We seem to be in agreement Arnd: There is something rotten in the body politic: The working class has been reformed by neoliberalism but our Labor leaders are too timid to acknowledge the depth of humanity’s need for revolutionary change: Labor’s capacity to manage capitalism is severely lacking: Our potential proletariat is losing faith.
Is the Labor Party still part of the traditional Left? Why is a Labor Government hurting Australia’s commercial relationships with China through its links to the military industrial complexes of Britain and the USA.
Stephen:
I have long held that the problem goes further than just the body politic, and extends deeply into academia.
I think that our contemporary complex of problems needs something of a two-step approach: 1) they need to be identified as such, and illuminated and investigated in an impartial manner from multiple angles and perspectives – which I hold to be a scientific, rather than a political process, hence my holding academia responsible in the first place. Only then would I expect for 2) political processes to kick in, to propose, explain, discuss, choose and implement solutions to those problems. This I consider to be a (party-)political process of public preference aggregation that may legitimately deviate from requirements of objectivity to some degree.
Thus I really do hold academia responsible in the first place. It’s a subject that could do with greater exploration – an exploration that has already been offered by one Julien Benda in La Trahison des Clerics.
Except that Benda published his lament almost 100 years ago.
Plus ça change …
Rubio:
More importantly: should they be?
I have organised my politics on the distant ideals of communism and libertarianism (read: anarchism) for many years, and on that basis have long since positioned myself at the centre of the traditional left-to-right political spectrum. Radical – yes! Extreme – definitely not!
I hold that a useful agenda for the future would consist of about a quarter of typical Labor perspectives, a quarter of carefully selected LNP ideas, and half of as yet to be determined and articulated logical extensions of that synthesis of left and right ideas.
Because they are a punch-drunk bunch of chicken-hearted opportunists in permanent fear of being wedged by the dim-witted bullies on the other side of politics.
Arnd, psychosocial inertia at both individual and societal levels suggests little improvement in the short, medium and perhaps long term. The mechanical momentum of vectors in train implies the continuation of situation ‘normal’, however dysfunctional and antithetical to best practice they be.
It’s an observable fact that in this technofebrile era, the society of the spectacle has well & truly become de facto the dominant reality; intellectual discussion is passé, impotent, incapable of moving the dial in any significant manner; the attention span of people reduced to two or three second impressions based on images; how does one structure a rescue mission when so many of the herd are up to their necks in the quagmire?
As you correctly observe, plus ça change…
When was the last time the planet witnessed a revolution that birthed real improvement for humanity at large? Piecemeal tinkering in this context appear to be phenomena quickly quenched by oppositional forces…. the Arab Spring, for example?
Doom saying… possibly what will be necessary for the big shakeup to occur; societal collapse as collateral consequence of the burgeoning eco-disaster per GW and temperatures above what the scientific community is warning per the limit of sustainability for biological systems.
Se la vie; one oughtn’t expect too much from mechanical creatures. Great Nature gifted this planet with the semi-evolved ape, along with its cortico-intellect, an experiment in evolving consciousness, and as in all experiments, there was no guarantee of what the outcome would be.
Gaia, at least, will continue, however attenuated.