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Aussie Politics in 2022

As one speculates on the deteriorating trajectory of the Australian economy under the stranglehold of COVID-19, it’s not hard to see the gradual demise of the Morrison government as we limp toward 2022, despite the perception that they have managed the whole health crisis reasonably well.

With an election not due until mid-2022, something Labor can count as a blessing, the Coalition will be hard pressed to explain to an impatient electorate as to why things are taking so long to improve.

By 2022, the economy will still be very fragile, with unemployment likely to remain high, perhaps as much as 8% without JobKeeper and a new improved JobSeeker. Combine that with outstanding bond issues close to, or in excess of, $1 trillion dollars and a government ideologically committed to reducing this fake debt and its deficit spending, a prolonged period of low wage growth and rising inflation will persist.

By that time, however, the patience of the Australian voter will have run out. No longer will they believe the rhetoric, the mantras or the likely dire predictions of the Murdoch media that an incoming Labor government would be worse.

It will become apparent to those middle-class swinging voters who view themselves as little capitalists, that a marked decline in living standards has occurred for which the Conservatives have failed to adequately respond to, or appear to be able to remedy.

It’s a scenario similar to 1983 when we saw the Hawke Labor government elected following a period of high unemployment and economic mismanagement under the Fraser government….the one where John Howard was Treasurer.

Labor went on to lead the country for the next 13 years. They introduced several major economic reforms that fundamentally changed and elevated the Australian economy to a point, somewhat ironically, where conditions in a growing world economy enabled the very same, Lazarus performing John Howard to subsequently govern and to be seen to be so successful.

Ironic because, if a conservative Government had remained in power during that time, they would never have had the vision necessary to enact those reforms themselves.

By 2022, with much of the world still struggling under the weight of post-Covid mismanagement and conservative governments under increasing pressure to perform better, time will have run out for Scotty from Marketing, assuming of course, that he is still there.

That does not assume either, that Anthony Albanese will still be there. Bright minds with more charismatic appeal and a flair for theatre are already waiting in the wings establishing their credentials. Just as Labor’s Bill Hayden was convinced to stand aside in 1983, so too might Albanese. If events become such that a quick leadership change may be seen as a pragmatic, if not irresistible opportunity, it could happen.

The Morrison Government, however, will be on a hiding to nothing. They have only ever looked good when the economy was on auto-pilot. Their lack of vision has always been their undoing. Once events transpire to challenge their capacity to be innovative and creative, they collapse in a clumsy heap of confusion and dysfunction.

There will be a lot of challenges for the Coalition over the next 18 months; challenges they will struggle with, ideologically. History tells us that it won’t end well.

Over time, history has a habit of repeating itself politically and such a time, for Australian politics, is less than two years from now. So let the games begin.

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27 comments

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  1. Ray Tinkler

    Then, in that case, he’ll call an early election as soon as it looks like we’re over the worst and he’s riding high. Say, October.
    And by winning, it’ll give his mate a boost for November.

  2. ajogrady

    Australians prove time and time again that they are not interested in principled and progressive policies. They are confused and confound by anything more then a three word slogan. And those guiding lights of political strategist that Labor employ at vast expense are collecting their pay under false pretenses. The L/NP have over a period of time since the lying rodent was in office given Labor strategists enough evidence of criminal corruption and inept governance to put the L/NP in the political wilderness for more then 4 election cycles but have never used it strategically. Simple put Labor has to stop bringing a knife to a gunfight.

  3. Jack Cade

    ajogrady

    I’ve felt that way since 1975. I could not believe this country voted for the Coalition after the dirty tricks they played in the Senate before the coup. I will say that after a couple of years of Fraser/Howard nobody I spoke to would admit they voted for them, but the enormity of the coup seemed to pass over most people’s heads.
    The Coalition was full of people who were just as disgusting as it is today. Reg Withers, Ian Sinclair, Doug Anthony…
    I have diminishing regard for the voters in this country. When I think of the glory of State Labor premiers like Dunstan (plagued by vile rumours all his years) Brian Burke, John Cain, Neville Wran…where are their equal today?
    Let’s face it – this is a conservative country and it’s getting worse.

  4. ajogrady

    Jack Cade

    I believe that the L/NP have been socially engineering intake of immigrants to mirror their values and beliefs. It is reasonable to assume that this is the case when taking into account electoral trends in once safe Labor seats. It also has a duel benefit for the L/NP by propping up the ailing Australian economy under the L/NP’s stewardship. The myth propagated by the L/NP and their partners in crime the MSM as good managers of the economy would be in tatters if it was not for the massive yearly influx of like minded immigrants.

  5. Aortic

    Parachute Dan Andrews into the Federal arena. With Dreyfus, Chalmers, Bowen, Burke they might even be able to defeat the relentless bleating soft the IPA, UnAustralian, Daily Tellmecrap, Murdoch, Queerland and Murdick. Don’t think Alabanese is cutting through.

  6. Ray Tinkler

    In many ways, it beggars belief, even more so now, how democracy ever got a toehold, considering the forces arraigned against it. We know that from royalty down, there have always been those that sought to destroy it, usually by appealing to that somewhat innate desire within humanity to have someone of authority deciding what’s best for us and telling us what to believe and accept. We even sneakingly admire the smartarse conman in a comedy setting who enriches himself by force of wit and guile. That is till in real life we fall victim. Could it be said it’s even an Australian trait. A commenter on a facebook page, referring to Morrison, said he was just doing whatever he wants.

    And, that certainly seems to be the case. He has paralysed the Parliament, made it of nill effect, silenced any opposition within in it. Appointed those he wants into powerful, non-elected positions, and given them power to nullify any cross examination by the legally elected representatives of the people that a democracy provides them with to question their decisions or of their fitness to make them.
    Are we, in fact, right in front of our eyes and with our constitutional rights within a purportedly free and transparent govt, having done to us, as was done to the German population in the 1930’s? Dictatorship by stealth?

    If we were to stop for a moment and list all the things that this current govt are doing/have done that could lead us to consider the real possibility that this is predetermined plan being executed at some speed, finding ways and opportunities to further that plan, in the current situation or whatever subsequent other that may befall, with the real purpose of creating that dictatorship, and soon. One of the traits a salesman must possess, if he is to succeed in that role, is to be able to turn a seeming, negative, right around on itself and make it a positive (for their purpose anyway) I have said it before, that this is a person in a great hurry, expecting certain events to occur soon. Time, to him is running out to accomplish the things he wants to get set up that will place him in a position of great prominence, and notoriety, because he has every intention of getting that prominent position when it presents.

    The PM’ship, to him, is only a stepping stone to greater glory in his mind. A means to an end. Whatever happens to the rest of us, is just a part of the game. He is preparing his C.V.

  7. Andrew Smith

    Elections and referendums are not won by positive messaging and optimism, the Conservatives know this very well.

    Further, I doubt recent immigrants citizens are that influential, especially when concentrated in urban electorates, but there is another phenomenon found in all electorates in most nations now.

    Ageing populations and rising importance of regional electorates which are older and more monocultural while susceptible to media manipulation, especially on social issues; Australian media and related is perfect for conservatives, like the USA from The Week:

    ‘Conservative media probably just can’t help itself. The entire “perpetual misinformation machine,” as Alex Pareene calls it, runs on whipping elderly white conservatives into a frothing rage over whatever is happening. Plus today, the president and half of the Republican congressional caucus are themselves eager right-wing propaganda addicts, forming a perfectly-sealed loop of insanity. It was likely inevitable that the pandemic would get sucked into the hysteria industrial complex, because that’s what right-wing media does with everything.’

    As Lynton Crosby says, go for their hearts and emotions, not their heads (and would add their wallets too).

  8. New England Cocky

    I am reminded and hopeful that the Queensland response to the Campbell Newman nutter COALition misgovernment may be repeated as hurting voters properly take revenge on the politicians who destroyed the effective Queensland Public Service for ideological reasons and so destroyed the savings of former public servants often left without a job.

    Perhaps Rupert will pass away in his American home, but will his successor be any less virulent to Austrian well-being?

    The Murdoch media brought down both the Whitlam and Gillard governments with their incessant stream of yellow journalism and deliberate mis-reporting. Remember Rupert’s comment from 1974 after being called to the Senate Bar to answer questions about biased reporting in favour of the COALItion; “I don’t care what you write about them (Labor), make them look foolish!”

    As individual thinking Australians perhaps the optimal solution is to challenge every COALition supporter who chants the mantras “Libs are better financial managers” with the reply with “and they propped up corporations rather than part-time workers during the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in the biggest deficit budget in Australian history, the largest (under) reported unemployment since the Great Depression while politicians never took a pay cut inflicted upon may other sectors of the economy”.

  9. Dwayne Dibley

    New England Cocky

    Just this week I noticed, from news items, how many former policemen are MPs in the Qld state opposition. Dutton got an increased vote in the last Federal election, despite being an appalling human being and possibly the wealthiest copper in Australian history, and there seems to be a shitload of former Qld wallopers dotted around our national infrastructure. Maybe Gollum is the vanguard…

  10. Ken

    Well said John. Keep up the good work.

  11. wam

    ‘Murdoch media that an incoming Labor government would be worse’.
    A great line, so open to the slogans which have kept labor firmly on the ropes .
    Slogans set the scene but special events can change the results.
    The lnp are not only adept at creating special events by lies but have been inordinately lucky, since darwin airport april 22.
    Poor old labor with the exception of a cake have been blessed with bad luck since 93 commos voted for killen.

    So let the games begin.
    they did this morning with dutton and the virgin bid and with labor’s representative the exleader remember??

    ring ring ring unclean

  12. Florence

    Will go for an early election as soon as possible. He will go for a single house, as Menzies did in a similar situation as soon as he feels the polls are with him. Does not appear to be interested in creating bills not passing for DD election. Will have to be before Christmas, before the budget would suit him fine.

  13. Phil Pryor

    The great pox of Australia is not the current virus threat, it is a yankee political perverted treacherous expatriate warty souled intellectual pygmy with a bowel for a skull. Press lords have seen from the days of mass printing capability that the masses can be shaped into moulded objects of ignorant and aggressive attitude. Rothermere, Harmsworth, Hearst, Beaverbrook, Black, others too, have become huge inflated condoms of gas, drenched in righteous evil egofixated drive, and Murdoch is the worst, an anti-social domineering slut for money, power, control, negatively active and pestilentially prominent. Australia is actually controlled by an unwiped anus from elsewhere. He is the core of an international clique that cashes in on a stupidity, the relentless abuse of money, consumerism, mindless consumption of media maggotty muck, diversions in sport, grog, gambling, possessions, ease and leisure. The planet seems doomed.

  14. Geoff Andrews

    Ajogrady,
    C.J. Dennis summed up the Australian character over 100 years ago”

    ” and they all grew idle & fond of ease
    And easy to swindle & hard to please.”

    For a cross-eyed citizen who speaks out against the ruling ideology:

    “So they fined that Glug with a cast in his eye
    For looking both ways, which he couldn’t deny
    And for having no visible precedent, which
    Is a crime in the poor & a fault in the rich.”

  15. Geoff Andrews

    Gosh, Phil, do I detect a faint whiff of the politics of envy?
    (Just joking!)

  16. Ross

    By the time the next election is due all the indicators point to Australia having been in a severe recession for some time. With a stagnant economy, large unemployment and a wafer thin parliamentary majority, will the coalition wind benefits back to pre 2020 levels? Good luck with that.
    This is the worst Australian government of any description (rum corps included) in the one hundred thousand plus years of human habitation of this our island continent but even they are not that stupid.
    Off course I could be wrong.

  17. Jack sprat

    In Dutton’s electorate of Dickson there is a large number of former white Souh Africans emigrants that vote for him .That is why he proposed that white South African farmers be given preference for refugee status in Australia . I am sure there are some non racist , multi cultural ,and socialistic white South Africans but I have yet to meet one . As long as Dutton panders to this group’ s prejudices he will remain in power .

  18. Jack Cade

    Phil Pryor

    Murdoch is just the Citizen Kane of the 21st Century.
    Perhaps his antipathy toward humans has been caused by someone else toggling HIS personal Rosebud…

  19. jack Cade

    Jack Sprat

    I thought all the Voortrekkers moved to Perth?

  20. TuffGuy

    Personally I would rather see one of the ladies (Plibersek or Wong) leading Labor rather than Albo. Despite the fact that the LNP are shooting themselves in the foot (doing themselves slow as Keating would say) and one would expect Labor to win anyway, it would be an absolute biggest landslide win in history with a lady in charge. And we know the LNP are far too misogynistic to ever let a woman run the Party.

  21. Jack Cade

    I have never understood why Albo was considered leadership material. He is not Mr Charisma by any criterion.
    Penny Wong is the most impressive politician in the country, and has been for the best part of a decade. But she has three strikes against her – her sex, her sexual orientation, and her ethnicity. Plus, Aussies are inherently racist, sexist and scared of clever women. The Neanderthal Abbott and his philistine mates’ treatment of Gillard shocked the world. No other nation on earth could understand how we allowed such a talentless lout to become a Prime Minister and then we sat back and watched the national misogyny paraded in parliament on a daily basis.

  22. wam

    smirko has surely learnt from the loonies vote in 2009 and the lemon’s choice not to go DD.’
    If he goes for an election labor and the loonies will get killed and albo might be replaced
    A dd may be even better?
    Tuffguy torpid tanya or woeful wong would both put albo to shame but the fact that women are needed in leadership goes over the head of the electorate as tayla harris and entertainers Britney Spears. Katy Perry. …Taylor Swift. …Beyonce. …Rihanna. …Selena Gomez. …Demi Lovato. … Ariana Grande. and who knows how many others exploiting their booties for cash from the men and women enthralled by ‘a piece of ass’

    Ross even with no opposition, luck and the 3 worst PMs, governments don’t get elected 3 tomes and then get 90% approval that is a major success.

    sorry jack what shocked the world was gillard’s misogyny speech. ‘ditch the with and booby’s bitch were slogans and rallying calls.and albo’s no no no was almost as good but they were one off and forgotten.

  23. John Kelly

    Jack Cade…
    “The Neanderthal Abbott and his philistine mates’ treatment of Gillard shocked the world. No other nation on earth could understand how we allowed such a talentless lout to become a Prime Minister and then we sat back and watched the national misogyny paraded in parliament on a daily basis.”

    NAILED IT!

  24. Jack Cade

    I note that ‘someone’ on the Media Watch studio staff sent congratulations to Alan Jones for his stellar radio career.
    No names – it could have been anyone on the ABC board, or someone acting on a board member’s suggestion. It is, after all, ‘their’ ABC.
    Just reverting to CORVID-19s arrival in the White House: cats can catch it – has anyone thought to test President Fart’s hair?

  25. Ray Tinkler

    Would it be a reasonable conclusion then that the conservatives have always had a contempt for and underlying desire to rid any country they have government of, of Democracy? Trump has said he wants to destroy socialism and Morrison and crew, every day, show they want to give it no credence and only enough acknowledgment as that suits to get their support. They have just now given the opposition a few sitting days in June as a sop. So, how long before they, under Morrison, will it be before they succeed, you think?

  26. leefe

    In 2022 the economy would be even worse than it currently is, not “still fragile”. We were heading for a recession before CoVID-19; the pandemic simply means that instead of a downhill slide, we fell off a cliff.

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