Aston(ishing) Result…

Ok, a few weeks ago I wrote about how the idea that Labor was a strong chance to win the Aston by-election was ignoring history…

Of course, I was also aware of Black Swan events. These are the events that we think are impossible until they happen and then we re-write history as though they were inevitable and it’s quite remarkable that some people didn’t see them before they happened. For example, the ubiquitous nature of the internet or the GFC.

My point here is that I thought it extremely difficult for Labor to win but I wanted to point that out because – at the time – people were talking as though it was a 50/50 thing.

Let’s be clear here: This is not unprecedented, but the only people who can remember the last time the government won a seat off the opposition in a by-election probably can’t, because they’d be over 103… And that’s assuming that they can remember something that happened a few weeks after their birth…

So why did Labor win?… assuming that they do win because at the time of writing Antony Green is only suggesting that it’s a 99.99999% probability.

I think there are a few factors:

• Dutton keeps trying to make a big thing about broken election promises. People expect politicians to break promises; they only care about the ones that affect them personally. As I’ve said many times, there aren’t a lot of Labor voters with $3 million in super.
• Dutton tells the public things that are demonstrably untrue. This is different from broken election promises because it’s treating you like an even bigger fool. It’s one thing to break your promise because you can always argue that you meant to keep it but things have changed since you made it, but it’s another thing to say that the sky is purple and you need to pay me for the unicorn you just bought. When Dutts tries to tell us that Mary Doyle, who campaigned for the seat just ten months ago, isn’t a local but Roshena Campbell is. because she’s managed to rent a property that she plans to move into if she wins, not only do people think it sounds dodgy, but a number of people trying to find a rental property in the area probably think that if she loses, that gives them another possible home.
• John Howard wrote a letter that was sent to the voters in Aston. There are two things wrong with this. 1) A large number of voters are too young to remember Howard and 2) the Liberals seem to forget that he lost the last election he fought and that even some of those who remember him think of him as a man whose time had come.
• Anthony Albanese isn’t Scotty Morrison. He’s not perfect and there are quite a few things where Labor needs to improve but this is going to be a big tick for him until people start saying, “Scott Who?”
• Anthony Albanese isn’t Peter Dutton either.

There are probably more factors but if I try to list them all, there’s a real possibility that the bit of Antony Green’s probability which gives the Liberals the win will have reared its head and I’ll feel silly for trusting him.

Whatever, I’m looking forward to Peter Dutton’s appearance on “Insiders” tomorrow… unless his cold gets worse/he has a meeting that he forgot about/he’s staging a protest against the bias of the ABC and he, unfortunately, has had to cancel.

Sussan is counting the numbers and the numbers tell her that the extra “s” in her name has led her to this moment and if she can just an extra zero to those who support her then she’ll be leader before the week is out.