Are You Feeling Lucky, Malcolm?

John Kelly

7 years ago

My question is directed to the Prime Minister. Your treasurer has just brought down your 2018/19 budget laced with tax cuts to woo the low paid. Some of it will be delivered in a year’s time when everyone files their tax return. The rest over the next seven years.

You have your party’s future in mind and, dare we suggest, your own with this budget. You have been telling everyone that the next general election will be held a year from now, while quietly contemplating the likelihood of going early, perhaps September or October this year.

Suddenly though, there’s a new issue on the horizon, courtesy of the High Court. It comes in the form of five bi-elections. What are you to do? Should you go ahead with the five bi-elections knowing secretly, that those same seats will/might/could be recontested in as little as three months?

If you were to lose all five, which is probable, how would that play with your colleagues and their view of your leadership? What if your support group panics and decides to tap you on the shoulder in the interests of their own self-preservation?

Which would you rather: face them on a cold, dark Canberra night, or place yourself at the mercy of the people? Is it possible those tax cuts, as pitiful as they are, could swing enough voters in marginal seats?

Watching some of the post budget interviews given by Scott Morrison as he began his big sell, one could be forgiven for thinking he really believes all the rhetoric he espouses.

His/your budget has revealed a seductive set of numbers that might fool the person in the street, although, when one compares your generosity with that of Bill Shorten’s, you could be found wanting. You also know that it’s all based on some pretty ambitious forecasts.

Except for a flush of extra cash generated by new tax-paying migrants, the numbers would have painted a very different picture. But, as usual, the party’s conservative ideology continues to reign supreme: Give the biggest share to the wealthiest. Your party does it every time.

How long will it take for the electorate to realise they have been duped….again?

Then, there’s that looming re-distribution. Could you call a general election before that wretchedly unfair re-adjustment of the boundaries is finalised? Once that goes, you know you’re stuffed.

What are you to do? Might it be, that the best course of action, is to call a general election now, rather than proceed with the five bi-elections? It will certainly save a lot of money, not to mention the embarrassment of losing all five.

We know the people don’t like early elections, but this is different. It’s all Labor’s fault when you think about it, Bill Shorten has a bit of egg on his face after boasting that no Labor member was holding dual citizenship. Can you exploit that?

Surely your spin doctors can come up with something to explain why going early this time, has been unfairly thrust upon you and calling a general election, rather than five bi-elections, will save the tax payer millions of dollars?

But the polls, those wretched polls. People believe them. People are influenced by them. What are you to do? Perhaps you would prefer the verdict of the people rather than the party room. Gallant in defeat, something like that? History might be kinder to you, if not your party.

Perhaps you can muster all your charisma, your preferred popularity and go head to head with the guy that ripped all the goodness out of your budget in his reply speech. Let’s face it, no one else in your party could.