Analysing the latest Newspoll

The latest Newspoll in The Australian shows support for the Coalition back to where it was prior to the Fairfax-Ipsos poll a fortnight ago and puts Labor ten points ahead of the Coalition in two-party preferred terms. This latest poll confirms what most of us expected. The last two polls had the electorate factoring in a leadership change.

Because it didn’t happen and because this last week has seen a less chaotic performance by both Abbott and his ministry, voters have recalculated their priorities. From within the government, Abbott’s position looks marginally safer than it did a month ago and the voters have reacted. They clearly want him removed. As long as he is there, the government has no chance of a sustained lift.

Tony Abbott’s personal approval rating rose three points from 25% to 28%. Obviously some poor deluded souls feel sorry for him. But, the real news should be that it is still so incredibly low for someone after only 18 months in the job.

More damaging is the preferred Prime Minister figures that show Bill Shorten at 44% and Abbott at 33%. Shorten has remained a small target for most of his time as opposition leader preferring to let Abbott self-destruct. It has been a clever strategy but it won’t last.

Doubtless, leadership speculation will be the open talking point with the mainstream media. More interesting though, will be the closed talk among Abbott’s senior ministers. We already know the feelings of the backbench. The likely chatter now will be when to make a move, either BB or AB, i.e. before Baird or after Baird/before Budget or after Budget.

The result of the NSW State election will be a critical factor in determining where the Liberals go from here. Even if, as expected, Baird wins, it will be the extent of the win that determines their next move. A close result will be a signal for some drastic action federally.

The May budget could be a deciding factor as well. Many years ago, British Prime Minister, Harold MacMillan was asked what determined a party’s electoral fortunes. His reply was, “Events dear boy, events.” If the government is confident the budget will restore faith in their leadership then they might move on Abbott before it is released, something that would serve the interests of the new leader.

We know from comments by Joe Hockey and Abbott that it will be a softer, more balanced, job orientated document. But, unless Hockey attacks the big end of town this time, the deficit will be even greater than the current one and his standing will be further diminished.

All of this places the Coalition’s economic credentials under the microscope. They can squeal and moan all they wish about Labor’s so called mess but nothing will hide the cavalier, swashbuckling, pre-election boasting by Hockey that he would produce a surplus in his first year and every year thereafter.

His performance as Treasurer has been a disaster on a number of levels. His fixation on spending has blinded him to a number of savings he could achieve in the areas of tax expenditure. It will be the size of the deficit that will determine the subsequent narrative.

But there will be less emphasis on the importance of an early return to surplus, both from government and business. He will inadvertently shine a light on the quality of Wayne Swan’s economic record.

There will also need to be a complete review of the way the budget is structured, this time from the top down. It must be clear to the 90% that the 10% are paying their fair share. That will be a tough call for a government that takes its cue from the IPA.

One thing is for sure. A leadership change alone will not pass the pub test, particularly if Julie Bishop were to become PM. She lacks the forcefulness that is required and once a few unexpected “events” surface, she will struggle. Wholesale changes both in the ministry and in policy direction will be necessary and even that probably won’t be enough.

A new Treasurer, a new Attorney General as well as changes in Defence and Immigration will be needed. But until we see who the replacements are, there will be no automatic endorsement by the electorate regardless of the spin their media mates concoct.

The government has just 18 months to avoid being a one term wonder. The odds right now are heavily against them.