2024 QLD State Election: Where to From Here

The AIM Network

2 months ago

By Callen Sorensen Karklis

The Queensland state election over the weekend has brought about what I warned the QLD Labor was in danger of as far back as 2017. The Labor party’s almost decade long era in power since 2015 under Palaszczuk and then Miles has ended.

Labor’s Legacy under Palaszczuk/Miles

Labor’s Legacy under its third era (2015 – 2024) in power since 1989 dominating 30 years of the past 35 years. Includes the following:

Constructing the Cross River rail network across Brisbane
Finishing the construction of the Kippa Ring train line
Finishing the construction of the G link across the Gold Coast
Introduced the Queensland Human Rights Act
Banned gay conversion therapy and apologized for LGBTIQ criminalization
Committed to 50% renewables
Legalized abortions for women and Euthanasia
Led the state successfully through the Covid – 19 pandemic lockdowns
Controversially constructed the Star Casino Queens wharf precinct
Introduced 50 cent fares for public transport across SE QLD
Introduced compulsory preferential voting a 4-year fixed terms
Laid the groundwork for considerations for a Treaty with First Nations peoples
Free car registration, removal of stamp duty for first home buyers
Strengthened the rights of renters
Decriminalized the sex work industry
Expanded environmental protection of Great Artesian Basin and Great Barrier Reef

Labor’s Mistakes

Despite the legacy and accomplishments of the Labor Party in its decade in power there was collateral damage that potentially led to progressive infighting and strengthened resolve on the conservative side, fueling their ambitions to return to power.

For example:

The Toondah PDA [Priority Development Application] proposal of 3600 high rise units in Ramsar wetlands in Cleveland’s Toondah Habor prevented Labor from winning back the once safe seat of Cleveland since 2009 and caused a split in the Labor vote between Greens and Teals away from Labor and the LNP on a local and state level from 2016 – 2024.
The Adani Carmichael mine went ahead despite the controversy from the Newman LNP’s time in power in 2012 – 2015 which caused considerable damage to the Federal ALP’s chances in the 2019 Federal Election and a political gamble contributing to sustained funding to a dying industrial sector and climate damage.
Introduced Youth Justice laws that contradicted their own Human Rights laws
2032 Olympics Bid mismanagement in planning caused community anxiety

Green’s Achievements

The Queensland Greens managed to emerge as a political alternative to Queensland Labor when Labor became more unpopular during the increasing cost of living crisis post–pandemic, particularly in inner Brisbane suburbs. The Greens were successful in pressuring the following popular policies from the Labor state government: 1) Decreasing public transport costs across SE QLD 2) Free School lunches 3) Free GP visits.

Greens in Crisis on Controversial Issues with Labor

The Greens’ recent success in QLD was short lived failures but not terminal; as any party matures they must overcome hubris and delusion and accept realities. Three issues have stunted the QLD Greens growth beyond 2024 and they include:

Infighting on industrial matters relating to the CFMEU alleged corruption
Tensions locally on the Palestinian/Israel Gaza issue between the Jewish and Islamic communities over the war abroad
Infighting with Labor on the Affordable Housing bill over rental freezes
The Greens must balance its social justice, economic agenda with its environmental narrative as it is competing with groups like Legalize Cannabis and TEALs.

Analysis from the Results

What is clear from the election results is that the polling from pundits predicted an LNP landslide on 58% compared to Labor on 41 – 42%. What we got in the end was the LNP with 54% of the vote and Labor with 45%. When compared to the 2012 State Election when the LNP won 62% of the vote with Labor on 37% of the vote which saw the LNP on 78 seats of a super majority compared to a rump Opposition on 7 seats. But in this election, we’re seeing the LNP somewhere with a majority in the 50s ratio, and a reduced Labor tally somewhere in the 30s with the parliament holding 1 Teal, 1 Green and 3 Katter party seats. Both the Greens and Katter’s lost seats on the left and right.

The reasons why the ALP managed to hold off an LNP offensive was due to a remarkable damage control strategy by the labour movement and trade unions on privatization, asset sales, women’s rights groups on the abortion issue among women voters and concerns among younger voters about their social future as well as the people of all ages suffering austerity measures through a cost-of-living crisis. Voters are concerned and nervous about handing a bigger majority to conservatives who are moving further and further to the right of politics. Despite this the Tories won but only just with regional seats and outer metropolitan bellwether seats like Redlands, and once safe seats like Capalaba, Rockhampton and Mackay gong to the LNP. Seats across Brisbane, Logan, Ipswich, Bundaberg, and even on the Gold Coast like Gaven were surprisingly retained by Labor which proves Queensland isn’t as politically conservative per the stereotypes. Good news for Labor too was the fact that once safe seats like Lytton were retained despite losing the once safe BCC Wynnum Manly ward in the early 2024 Local Government elections.

I predict potential for Labor to do well in Brisbane areas in 2028 Brisbane City Council elections but also the Greens as their vote didn’t collapse either it just didn’t translate enough to win seats as they ambitiously thought. They all must be practical and realistic with the result not delusional.

Form a Coalition on Counter Strike Action! A Commonsense Response!

If the LNP repeats the mistakes of the Newman era (2012 – 2015) with harsh austerity and controversial conservative policy agenda or the mediocrity and cowardice of the Borbidge era (1996 – 1998) then the Crisafulli LNP government will be a 1-term government. But if it proves to not rock the boat by finding the balance between dry conservatives or moderate wet socially progressive liberals who are economically neo–liberal then it could potentially last a 2^nd term potentially. As it has done so in BCC from 2004 – 2024 under Lord Mayors Newman, Quirk and Schrinner.

The Labor, Greens and I dare say even the TEALs must be united in front of radical opposition. Especially on grassroots activism, organic community engagement and the policy fronts that includes the following:

Industrial relations and workers’ rights
First Nations rights and reconciliation
LGBTIQ rights
Human and civil rights
Women’s rights
Environmental protectionism

Labor will understandably have to take the charge as the Opposition, but it must not forsake its progressive roots and duties, and it must keep the Greens on side. There is a strong chance a future Greens and Teals movement could solidify eventually in Queensland as a third force in outer suburban coastal areas that are more conservative now but won’t always potentially conservative especially if the LNP pursues controversially taboo agenda that inevitably become controversial. It must learn from the success and failures of community action and campaigning that took place during Campbell Newman’s time in office, executing a message campaign that exposes any vulnerabilities. This could prove crucial in Labor’s return to office in 2028 or 2032.

But if Labor returns to power and the Greens and Teals vote resurges it will need to find a strategy to work with them rather than working against them and vice versa from the minor progressive blocs as well. A divided bloc will only help the LNP hold onto power or at worst in coalition with the Katter Australia Party. Greens and Labor need to stop shitting each other! Perhaps a negotiation or discussion for the Greens and ALP to have a formal alliance or coalition including TEALs may have to happen similar to the ACT. Or else the conservatives will gain a solidified foothold per the longevity of the Nicklin/Bjelke Petersen era (1957 – 1989) which lasted 32 years. But nothing is for certain in a 24-hour news cycle, a digital world with facts and fiction at everybody’s fingertips.

I do urge caution to the LNP on the realms of pursuing nuclear power without perfecting the technology, women’s and civil rights and industrial relations being watered down, as well as advocating tougher crime-busting measures that could create the opposite results of what they deem to achieve. Logical decision making beyond just emotional decision making must be taken into consideration. These are lessons I learnt on the Redland City Council election in 2024 when a coalition of progressives and moderates regardless of their party colors or affiliations worked together to achieve a result that we didn’t think possible. As democracy and voters become disillusioned, they are looking for results and alternatives from people who deliver upon their promises.

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Callen Sorensen Karklis was the 2024 Greens candidate for the Qld state electorate of Oodgeroo. He holds a Bachelor of Government and International Relations from Griffith University and Business Diploma from QLD TAFE. He currently studies a Cert 4 in Youth Work. He has worked in retail, media advertising, union and government roles. He has also been involved with Bayside Crime Stoppers in 2015 – 2016 and was on the Griffith Student Representative Council as the Indigenous Officer during the Pandemic in 2021. He also has been a cohost on 4ZZZ radio programs on Workers Power and Indigi Briz. He was also a coordinator for Jos Mitchell’s Leading Change Team during the 2024 Redland City Council elections. He used to be a local organizer in the Labor Party during the Newman and early Palaszczuk eras and had advised TEAL campaigns.