2024 QLD State Election: Where to From Here
By Callen Sorensen Karklis
The Queensland state election over the weekend has brought about what I warned the QLD Labor was in danger of as far back as 2017. The Labor party’s almost decade long era in power since 2015 under Palaszczuk and then Miles has ended.
Labor’s Legacy under Palaszczuk/Miles
Labor’s Legacy under its third era (2015 – 2024) in power since 1989 dominating 30 years of the past 35 years. Includes the following:
- Constructing the Cross River rail network across Brisbane
- Finishing the construction of the Kippa Ring train line
- Finishing the construction of the G link across the Gold Coast
- Introduced the Queensland Human Rights Act
- Banned gay conversion therapy and apologized for LGBTIQ criminalization
- Committed to 50% renewables
- Legalized abortions for women and Euthanasia
- Led the state successfully through the Covid – 19 pandemic lockdowns
- Controversially constructed the Star Casino Queens wharf precinct
- Introduced 50 cent fares for public transport across SE QLD
- Introduced compulsory preferential voting a 4-year fixed terms
- Laid the groundwork for considerations for a Treaty with First Nations peoples
- Free car registration, removal of stamp duty for first home buyers
- Strengthened the rights of renters
- Decriminalized the sex work industry
- Expanded environmental protection of Great Artesian Basin and Great Barrier Reef
Labor’s Mistakes
Despite the legacy and accomplishments of the Labor Party in its decade in power there was collateral damage that potentially led to progressive infighting and strengthened resolve on the conservative side, fueling their ambitions to return to power.
For example:
- The Toondah PDA [Priority Development Application] proposal of 3600 high rise units in Ramsar wetlands in Cleveland’s Toondah Habor prevented Labor from winning back the once safe seat of Cleveland since 2009 and caused a split in the Labor vote between Greens and Teals away from Labor and the LNP on a local and state level from 2016 – 2024.
- The Adani Carmichael mine went ahead despite the controversy from the Newman LNP’s time in power in 2012 – 2015 which caused considerable damage to the Federal ALP’s chances in the 2019 Federal Election and a political gamble contributing to sustained funding to a dying industrial sector and climate damage.
- Introduced Youth Justice laws that contradicted their own Human Rights laws
- 2032 Olympics Bid mismanagement in planning caused community anxiety
Green’s Achievements
The Queensland Greens managed to emerge as a political alternative to Queensland Labor when Labor became more unpopular during the increasing cost of living crisis post–pandemic, particularly in inner Brisbane suburbs. The Greens were successful in pressuring the following popular policies from the Labor state government: 1) Decreasing public transport costs across SE QLD 2) Free School lunches 3) Free GP visits.
Greens in Crisis on Controversial Issues with Labor
The Greens’ recent success in QLD was short lived failures but not terminal; as any party matures they must overcome hubris and delusion and accept realities. Three issues have stunted the QLD Greens growth beyond 2024 and they include:
- Infighting on industrial matters relating to the CFMEU alleged corruption
- Tensions locally on the Palestinian/Israel Gaza issue between the Jewish and Islamic communities over the war abroad
- Infighting with Labor on the Affordable Housing bill over rental freezes
- The Greens must balance its social justice, economic agenda with its environmental narrative as it is competing with groups like Legalize Cannabis and TEALs.
Analysis from the Results
What is clear from the election results is that the polling from pundits predicted an LNP landslide on 58% compared to Labor on 41 – 42%. What we got in the end was the LNP with 54% of the vote and Labor with 45%. When compared to the 2012 State Election when the LNP won 62% of the vote with Labor on 37% of the vote which saw the LNP on 78 seats of a super majority compared to a rump Opposition on 7 seats. But in this election, we’re seeing the LNP somewhere with a majority in the 50s ratio, and a reduced Labor tally somewhere in the 30s with the parliament holding 1 Teal, 1 Green and 3 Katter party seats. Both the Greens and Katter’s lost seats on the left and right.
The reasons why the ALP managed to hold off an LNP offensive was due to a remarkable damage control strategy by the labour movement and trade unions on privatization, asset sales, women’s rights groups on the abortion issue among women voters and concerns among younger voters about their social future as well as the people of all ages suffering austerity measures through a cost-of-living crisis. Voters are concerned and nervous about handing a bigger majority to conservatives who are moving further and further to the right of politics. Despite this the Tories won but only just with regional seats and outer metropolitan bellwether seats like Redlands, and once safe seats like Capalaba, Rockhampton and Mackay gong to the LNP. Seats across Brisbane, Logan, Ipswich, Bundaberg, and even on the Gold Coast like Gaven were surprisingly retained by Labor which proves Queensland isn’t as politically conservative per the stereotypes. Good news for Labor too was the fact that once safe seats like Lytton were retained despite losing the once safe BCC Wynnum Manly ward in the early 2024 Local Government elections.
I predict potential for Labor to do well in Brisbane areas in 2028 Brisbane City Council elections but also the Greens as their vote didn’t collapse either it just didn’t translate enough to win seats as they ambitiously thought. They all must be practical and realistic with the result not delusional.
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If the LNP repeats the mistakes of the Newman era (2012 – 2015) with harsh austerity and controversial conservative policy agenda or the mediocrity and cowardice of the Borbidge era (1996 – 1998) then the Crisafulli LNP government will be a 1-term government. But if it proves to not rock the boat by finding the balance between dry conservatives or moderate wet socially progressive liberals who are economically neo–liberal then it could potentially last a 2nd term potentially. As it has done so in BCC from 2004 – 2024 under Lord Mayors Newman, Quirk and Schrinner.
The Labor, Greens and I dare say even the TEALs must be united in front of radical opposition. Especially on grassroots activism, organic community engagement and the policy fronts that includes the following:
- Industrial relations and workers’ rights
- First Nations rights and reconciliation
- LGBTIQ rights
- Human and civil rights
- Women’s rights
- Environmental protectionism
Labor will understandably have to take the charge as the Opposition, but it must not forsake its progressive roots and duties, and it must keep the Greens on side. There is a strong chance a future Greens and Teals movement could solidify eventually in Queensland as a third force in outer suburban coastal areas that are more conservative now but won’t always potentially conservative especially if the LNP pursues controversially taboo agenda that inevitably become controversial. It must learn from the success and failures of community action and campaigning that took place during Campbell Newman’s time in office, executing a message campaign that exposes any vulnerabilities. This could prove crucial in Labor’s return to office in 2028 or 2032.
But if Labor returns to power and the Greens and Teals vote resurges it will need to find a strategy to work with them rather than working against them and vice versa from the minor progressive blocs as well. A divided bloc will only help the LNP hold onto power or at worst in coalition with the Katter Australia Party. Greens and Labor need to stop shitting each other! Perhaps a negotiation or discussion for the Greens and ALP to have a formal alliance or coalition including TEALs may have to happen similar to the ACT. Or else the conservatives will gain a solidified foothold per the longevity of the Nicklin/Bjelke Petersen era (1957 – 1989) which lasted 32 years. But nothing is for certain in a 24-hour news cycle, a digital world with facts and fiction at everybody’s fingertips.
I do urge caution to the LNP on the realms of pursuing nuclear power without perfecting the technology, women’s and civil rights and industrial relations being watered down, as well as advocating tougher crime-busting measures that could create the opposite results of what they deem to achieve. Logical decision making beyond just emotional decision making must be taken into consideration. These are lessons I learnt on the Redland City Council election in 2024 when a coalition of progressives and moderates regardless of their party colors or affiliations worked together to achieve a result that we didn’t think possible. As democracy and voters become disillusioned, they are looking for results and alternatives from people who deliver upon their promises.
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15 comments
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Harry Lime
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Patricia
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Callen Sorensen Karklis
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Anon. E. Mouse
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Terence Mills
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Clakka
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Harry Lime
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Anon. E. Mouse
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GL
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Terence Mills
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GL
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Terence Mills
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Anon. E. Mouse
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wam
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Callen Sorensen Karklis
Return to home pageWhere to from here?Is this a rhetorical Question? I’d suggest backwards…at a rate of knots.Good old Queensland..full of fuckwits.. at least out in the boonies,and the deep North , of course.What’s his name Fooly is going to turn it all into shit,and doubtless claim progress.Like all politics,we watch the same bullshit on a repeat cycle,enabled by the Murdoch trash and the other rubbish.What will it take for people to take a serious interest in how they’re being screwed?
It is almost a safe bet that the LNP will do what LNP governments always do and allow their arrogance and their born to rule mentality to overtake any moderates in the party room and govern for their donors and not the people of Queensland.
Most of those who were with Newman are still there and are in senior positions and they will go down the same route that the Newman government went down, they have already told us that they will, and Peter Dutton will make sure that they fall in with what he wants them to do. Dutton thinks he owns Queensland.
The next 4 years are going to be interesting.
Harry Lime QLD isn’t as backwards as people think it is. Don’t forget the QLD ALP has been in power for 70 years of all of QLD’s history. The article is really about how progressives from all fields of the centre – left need to work together to take on the LNP in the coming years ahead.
I will not be surprised if the ultra right don’t tear the LNP apart. Crisafulli will try to do what ever it takes to stay in power, his right winged ideologues will shiv him real quick.
The greens and teals sadly, right or wrong, are giving the impression of siding with the coalition and LNP against Labor and that is being used against them. We saw what the LNP did to KAP, shafted them totally.
We live in interesting times.
Where to from here ?
The LNP have committed to reducing mining royalties together with other concessions to the mining industry in Qld.
This is entirely the wrong time to be giving away our mineral resources or handing out freebies to the miners but Crisafulli sold his soul to the Queensland Resources Council and the Minerals Council of Australia.
They will now complain that Labor left fiscal black holes which will mean cutting back on other services or increasing taxes : fifty cent public transport concessions will be one of the first to go.
And in true National Party tradition there will be no more talk about climate change nonsense : the $12billion Pioneer-Burdekin, pumped hydro scheme near Mackay has already been scrapped as the LNP walk away from renewables targets.
And so it goes !
Viewed from my bunker in the ‘deep south’ (Vic), the political rhetoric from all parties in the ‘deep north’ (Qld) has hardly changed an iota. Except that these days it’s bombarded via Murdoch media.
It is my view that Qld has come a long way with growth in social and educational matters, further enlightening the populous and providing opportunities and more recently infrastructure, but mainly only in the urban zones.
Qld being a huge state, has continually neglected intra-state connectivity, and taken for granted those of the ‘regions’. Whilst those ordinary citizens have had to stand by and watch the govt dance with resources oligarchs pouring $billions into their private infrastructure to provide only for their shareholders and their own (frequently offshore) coffers, those same ordinary citizens get SFA in terms of matters vital to them; connectivity, health, education, water / power and local renewal. The Miles ALP last minute measures, such as free school lunches, 50c fares, rental and first home buyers measures means almost nothing to them, so they have given Labor a kick in the guts.
Never mind the Callen’s high-faluting list of ideals under the ” … must be united in front of radical opposition.”, these ‘regional’ ordinary citizens want to see tangible infrastructure in connectivity, health, education, water / power and local renewal. They don’t want their disillusioned, desperate and sometimes enraged sons and daughters, unequipped, head off to urban zones trying to find a future, only to be confronted by a merciless ‘adult crime adult time’ mentality. A discriminatory cop-out and disgrace Oz-wide, but most manifest in the NT and Qld.
Callen,I agree with what you’re saying,The Greens have always had the better policies,and if the Alp want to stay in government AND make real progress, they have to make an effort to find common ground, or we’ll end up with a fascist shithead like Dutton, who will screw the country blind.Albo & co need to stop demanding their way or the highway,or they will find themselves back in opposition,and powerless.There’s every chance they’ll be forced into making these decisions very soon,despite the haughty protestations. Of course ,not all banana benders are rednecks,but there’s still plenty on the ground in the regions.I lived in FNQ years ago, and it made me get the fuck out.
Harry, the same my say or highway also applies to the Greens.
I currently live in FNQ, and have never voted for the LNP, have never been a member of any political party although I did think about joining the greens until Bob Brown sided with the coalition…
Over the years I have seen the political games over ride the ideology that originally attracted me to the greens. I have noted the siding with the coalition on too many issues to claim the high moral ground.
I disagree with many of the issues Labor has especially on juvenile crime, but never enough to vote for the LNP. The stench of Joh, Campbell Newman, and their unholy police state history is too much.
2024 QLD State Election: Where to From Here –
Drive the state straight into the ground and into massive debt.
Oh yes, and will of course…repeat after me…be all Labor’s fault.
No matter how you feel about Queensland’s Truth-Telling and Healing Inquiry you will probably be quite surprised that literally the first action taken by the Crisafulli LNP government is to shut down the process.
Crisafulli said his government would not continue with the inquiry and would repeal the state’s Path to Treaty Act.
Oddly, Crisafulli in confirming that the hearings would be scrapped, said he did not wish to make it a “divisive issue”. In fact it seems to me that as the enquiry was already underway and as Treaty can only be achieved on a regional (as opposed to national) basis that this move is likely to create division. Clearly, what Crisafulli is saying is that he doesn’t want to talk about the issue.
The next move by this LNP government appears to be a crackdown on youth crime whatever that means.
Is there something overtly racist about this new LNP regime or are they just pandering to prejudice ?
The Cane Toad Times has respawned –
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/underground-brisbane-magazine-the-cane-toad-times-hops-back-into-print-20241101-p5kn4l.html
I noted above, the first priority of the new Crisafulli government was to scrap the Truth Telling and Healing Inquiry and it seems that the second order of business was to scrap the Pioneer-Burdekin Pumped Hydro project – slamming it as the “greatest con job in Queensland history” – but oddly they won’t reveal how much their own alternative projects will cost.
The White Shoe Brigade are back, next it will be dusting down the safari suits !
The LNP isn’t telling the whole truth apparently. How shockingly unexpected (sarcasm font).
A report was finalised during the caretaker period and neither side got a copy of it.
The report had 3 options, the most expensive was not recommended in the report but is the one the LNP latched onto , and they haven’t said anything about the other 2 cheaper options that were recommended for consideration.
Instead Crisafulli and co are going to go with some other smaller options. One of which has the same expected cost per unit of electricity produced.
https://www.abc.net.au/…/queensland…/104557064
Agree with you on senile bob, Anon, but not with Callen that the loonies have had better policies rather they better sounding policies but only on selected topics which are unworkable over the complete picture.
The QEC has not released the results yet but hopefully we can see the distribution of preferences.
The voice results: NT SA no seats yes WA Tas 2 seats yes Qld 3 seats yes NSW Vic 13 seats yes with 130 no seats the lnp has no need to be concerned by its belief that Aboriginal people should not be favoured by government.
Indeed anti-Aboriginal policies are likely to be vote catchers.
The next move by the religious right will be pro-men.
ps
‘Independent NT politician Yingiya Guyula says he was left feeling “angry” after he was asked to show his ID at a service station before refuelling a rental car. Mr Guyula has detailed a string of experiences in Darwin and Katherine where he believes he was treated differently because of his skin.’
Wam; both the Greens and Labor had very similar electoral platforms during the state election. If both parties can’t get on then the Coalition and LNP will win the next few electoral cycles.