It’s on, and it will happen most likely between now and the end of September; perhaps even this week. The causes are there for all to see. You can’t fix stupid and the sight of the troika of ministers standing underneath a microphone boom, two of them revealing their true thoughts about climate change, was enough for their opposing forces to say, ‘we’ve had enough.’
The big tip at the moment is that Malcolm Turnbull will announce a challenge and Julie Bishop will also offer herself to the party room as an alternative for the hard right. The unknown factor is Scott Morrison who is seen to be the preference of the hard right-wing faction but he has, so far, stood solidly behind Tony Abbott.
We can be reasonably confident that in a three-horse race, Tony Abbott would be the first candidate to be eliminated.
The story the Sydney Daily Telegraph ran last week suggesting Abbott was planning to axe up to six ministers in a pre-Christmas reshuffle, is believed by many journalists to have been the catalyst; something they believe came from the Prime Minister’s Office.
When they coupled that with the troika buffoonery, it sent government MPs reaching for the Prozac. On Sunday, Nine News’ Laurie Oakes suggested Abbott may call a double dissolution the week following the Canning by-election to head off a spill motion. That still remains a possibility. Abbott will not go quietly.
The Daily Telegraph reported today (Monday) that Environment Minister Greg Hunt sought assurances from Abbott that Parliamentary Secretary, Bob Baldwin was safe. The Telegraph was described by Anthony Albanese on Morning television recently as an annex to the Prime Minister’s Office, i.e. they get the leaks that the Prime Minister’s Office wants to leak. So if the reshuffle plan was a leak from the PMO then it once again demonstrates how dysfunctional that office is.
It’s all so familiar this leadership speculation, but the main difference this time compared with the failed February spill motion is that Malcolm Turnbull refuses to rule out a leadership challenge. That minor detail cranks up the speculation a gear or two. In February, Turnbull made it clear he was in no way involved and would not support such a move.
We will wait this week with breathless anticipation of any word or move or indeed any action by any member of the factional camps ahead of the Canning vote that will give us a hint of what is to come.
Should Canning record a swing of around 10% as expected, win or lose, the tension will be palpable, the knives will be sharpened, the phones will go into meltdown, but best of all, the pain, embarrassment and dysfunction the nation has suffered over the past two years will finally come to an end.
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Hope it happens sooner rather than later – I can’t take any more!
Stupid is as stupid does, & then there is Rabbit! STOP TONY ABSCESS!!
Timely post John. My money is on a Double Dissolution before the public shaming of the liar being thrown out on his arse happens. A narcissist dreads the humiliation or fear’ of abandonment, its the engine that drives borderline personality disorder. The real or imagined belief of imminent separation destabilizes all the other narcissist traits. (from the Psychology Today site).
There is no doubt Abbott displays many of the traits of a narcissist and if he goes into the dirty, hateful side of his nature, again well exposed, that will in my opinion bring his wrath down on his once believed admirers in his Govt. He will never consider collateral damage as a problem. Memories of former world leaders
Order the popcorn and your favourite tipple friends, this will make Labors problems a mere picnic in the park. I hope Julia has a front seat.
Oh, please – BRING IT ON !
A double dissolution is my bet too. I’m concerned by Laurie Oakes’ report that Abbott talked this over with Rupert Murdoch during his recent visit. Was Abbott giving him the mud he wants chucked around during the campaign?
This from the man who is not interested in Canberra insider gossip because he has a “job to do”……
Mr Abbott said the federal government was completely dysfunctional and the situation could not go on.
“Right now in Canberra the government is at war with itself,” he told reporters in Brisbane, while campaigning with LNP leader Campbell Newman.
“We’ve really got three Labor parties at the moment, we’ve got the Gillard Labor party, the Rudd Labor party and the neither Labor party.”
“I think the government of Australia is too important to be paralysed while the faceless men try and decide who the leader should be.”
“If the problem is that we have a totally dysfunctional federal government it cannot go on like this,” Mr Abbott said.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-totally-dysfunctional-abbott-20120218-1tfm0.html#ixzz3lgLJ5TvX
A word of caution (or perhaps preparation). Be careful what you wish for.
If it’s Turnbull, the ENTIRETY of the Australian media including the ABC will be propping him up as our saviour- as a do no wrong little darling, just as Fairfax has done with Mike Baird- both ignoring any negative stories and also propping up what will amount in many cases to outright lies.
The quantity and volume of the spin will be sickening.
At the same time, the full force of the media’s disdain will be aimed at Shorten and to the lesser (and usual extent) at the Greens.
Abbott would sup with the devil if he thought it would save his skin. Discussion with Murdoch is getting very damn close to the said Lucifer.
yes, I agree with Jexpat all the way. Sadly, this may turn into an ugly shit-fight of dishonesty and deception by the MSM. Surely, Turnbull will not be allowed to distance himself from LNP policy.
I can’t see the voters of Canning being too impressed at having to go to the polls again so soon. The amount of election advertising here is ridiculous (seeing as it all seems to be the Libs and Palmer’s candidate). If we go back to the polls in two months, Hastie will be out as payback if he manages to fall over the line at the byelection.
Will only come to an end for as long as it takes for Bishop or worse still Turnbull to do exactly what Abbott has been doing but with a kinder smile?
For Turnbull to win he will have to promise not to move to an ETS. If he makes no changes to their climate change policy then he will be under terrible pressure both in Paris and at the election trying to defend a policy he does not believe in.
Labor are about to lose their main asset.
What other assets can they turn to?
Hmmm…. will Godwin Grech be Malcolm “Von Ribbentrop’s” Chief of Staff? Will the refugee blood on “The Drone” Morrison’s hands sully his playing with the leadership baton or will Julie “Asbestos'” sense of humour be too much for the likes of “Bestiality “Bernardi and “Bunter” Christensen? Will labor wake up at the same time and replace Shortstuff with a potential “real” leader like Albanese or Plibersek….goodness gracious me… this is all very exciting. What a distraction as we slide into the capitalist abyss.
We live in hope but I thinks mr crappit will again survive. But I may be wrong this time around
I have ot to agree with Jexpat. A new LNP leader will be welcomed with open arms by MSM. Whoever leads LNP, same dog different leg. Nothing changes except perhaps the liberal voters Abbott has turned away, and right-leaning swinging voters may vote LNP at the next election. This is exactly what LNP would be hoping for, breathe hope for re-election back into the party.
I do not see how Abbott can survive the week much less until Christmas! I honestly cannot see Turnbull succeeding Abbott as leader.I fear Scott Morrison may be his replacement; Terrifying thought – he is as vicious as Abbott but has more brain cells (well, ok, he has three).
“but best of all, the pain, embarrassment and dysfunction the nation has suffered over the past two years will finally come to an end.”
I am sure that you meant, over the last 10 years, at least.
Mark Needham
I admit to a certain soft spot for Turnbull – mostly because of his “I’m on public transport” tweets during the Bronnie fiasco! However, if he takes the leadership, surely he would have to jettison at least Morrison, Pyne, Hockey, Dutton and hopefully Mattias Cormann to stand even a snowball’s chance in hell of making the general public forget all the disasters of the last two years? Is there anyone left?
I listen to a lot of ABC News Radio (in the shower, in the car etc) and whenever a LNP Minister is interviewed these days I don’t hear anything worthwhile coming out of their mouths – whatever the subject under discussion is, it’s just “blah blah jobs, blah blah economic growth, blah blah blah” – they are like stuck records and surely everyone by now realises that talking about something doesn’t ACTUALLY make it happen… Or am I being too trusting in the intelligence level of the average listener?
@Diane – the basis of propoganda; tell a lie often enough, loudly enough and with conviction, people will accept it as truth. LNP’s three word slogans are not just easy for our PM to remember. They’re easy for everyone to remember.
ABC are reporting Malcolm Turnbull requests leadership ballot … here we go!
If Turnbull takes the lead…. only a matter of time before the far-right faction test their sharpened knives.
At least it won’t be boring.
Malcolm just spoke to the press and he did very well. Explained his reasoning but took no questions. I feel about a million pounds lighter and I am prepared to listen to what he has to say. Getting rid of Abbott is the first step to returning sanity. Crack open the champers and job well done troops. (I hope).
Abbott’s thinly veiled threats may have been a factor here- as well as internal & exist polling (and also cheap, easily manipulated media “polls”) on Canning, the latter of which, in the event of a less than expected swing, their sycophants throughout the entirety of the media will use as “proof” that Turnbull has “turned things around,” even though there will be few substantive policy changes beyond a bit of window dressing.
Oh, and also marraige equality- which Turnbull and his newly
“moderate”Progressive! Liberal party.
Albo…..
It’s on. Let’s sing praises to the heavens, Alleluia! I can live with Malcolm. I’ll still be a tough as I can be, but I can live with him.
A bloody disaster. While the pig now has lipstick, it’s still a pig.
Abbott was just a bad salesperson for a pathetic social, economic, environmental and political agenda. An agenda that will undoubtedly be given a makeover, but the underlying aims, goals and intentions will remain exactly in place.
Talk about stupid.
Rupert’s response is going to be VERY interesting
After lavishing praise on The Saturday Paper’s founder Morry Schwartz and his contribution to Australia’s “intellectual life”, Turnbull quipped: “You are not some demented plutocrat pouring more and more money into a loss making venture that is just going to peddle your opinions.”
http://mumbrella.com.au/turnbull-launches-saturday-paper-roasts-news-corp-demented-plutocrats-push-political-agendas-210546
and they have the occasional twitter jibe at each other
Gawd I hope Malcolm snubs Rupert 🙂
Matters Not,
Without a substantial change of policy he will be quickly exposed as a pig with lipstick. His first speech was good. I remain cynical but reserve judgement. For me, climate change and renewable energy will be the test and from all accounts he will be too gutless to take that on.
If I were Abbott I’d go for a DD. Not a moment to lose.
Kaye, both will be doing the rounds right now. Making promises (not publically of course). Promising promotions. (Perhaps a Cabinet of 40?)
If Turnbull gets there, he will have ‘bought’ the ‘right’, but I expect he will change what is taken to Paris. Goodbye Hunt and Hockey as well as Cormann, Andrews, Erica, and others.
I would like to see Sharman Stone given a chance
Dutton will find that the water stops ‘lapping’ at the door and turns into a raging torrent, sweeping him well clear of any ministerial office.
Well may he say God save the Queen because nothing will save ….
At a practical level, what happens to all the flags?
How do you buy people like George Christensen, Andrew Nikolic and Corey Bernardi? They are mad.
Surely Pyne can’t stay Minister for Education though I wondered about some things he said and did lately that were a tad disloyal – like going with Malcolm to support Warren Entsch introduce his marriage equality bill.. He admitted that as a student politician he campaigned for what would get him elected (no fees)….we should have taken more notice of his rat from a sinking ship defection.
Matters Not:
As you can see, not everyone (including many people who ought to know better) agrees with us.
The anaogy I use is the intruder rapist vs. the date rapist. The intruder you know is going to beat you, rape you, and steals you money and possessions. Might even burn your house down to cover up the crime. So you not only don’t invite him in- but you take every precaution and secutiy measure to keep him out.
The date rapist on the other hand is charming, you invite him in and make him a nice dinner and ply him with fine wine. Afterwards, kisses you first- and then rapes you.
And if he doesn’t beat you, steal your money and possessions or burn your house down to cover up the crime the first time, he might even call you back, thank you for dinner, request another invitation, wherein he promises to bring flowers- and if you let him in he’ll surely do it on the second or third go.
Either way, you’re still left raped and impoversished.
Another analogy: who would you rather have pushing dysfunctional policies, a buffon or a polished con man?
I don’t think Pyne can stay in ‘Education’. His agenda is stuffed.
Put him in the van.
Jexpat I hope Abbott will not walk but stay and fight to the very end. Otherwise he’s finished, ‘on his bike’ well and truly.
Hey I don’t think the messiah has arrived but I know the idiot has gone. Malcolm was an Opposition leader fighting both his own party and the government. He will have learned a lot from the experience. He also has a huge social media presence so seems more aware of what people are wanting (only words I know).
I won’t judge him on that past but I will be listening VERY closely to everything he says from here on in. Policies matter to me, but getting rid of the embarrassing thug is justice.
Matters Not:
My bet is that Turnbull support’s Pyne’s “education” agenda and would attempt to get it through if he could.
Well it would’ve been much sweeter if the electorate delivered the coup de gras.
Still hoping for a DD.
As for Pyne’s agenda I agree he would attempt to get it through if he could but I think that Pyne made it political poison.
Just listening to Geoff K in support of Abbott. Turnbull is coping it big time,
Kaye Lee:
I’m of the decided opinion that ugly policies have an ugly face.
Take Barack Obama for example. Pretty face, eloquent speeches -along with a heap of rotten policies reminiscent of Ronald Reagan.
Selling his ass, will not save the ‘Captain’ now. Bring it on ASAP.
I want to see him go the same way Howard did. Out forever.
Let’s just enjoy the moment. Tomorrow we get back to work exposing an economically inept government.
John Kelly
I too am simply enjoying the moment.
Game back on tomorrow.
Well there goes my prediction of a DD election. But who know? If Abbott wins he still might call one. But I don’t see him winning.