Why the Conservatives cannot win the next election and why Labor will go early
You are probably thinking, referring to the headline, that it is a stupid thing to say, and on the one hand, you might be right given the Government still has two years to serve. On the other, going early when your chances of winning are second to none is a good idea.
The Constitution provides that:
“… terms for the House of Representatives continue for a maximum of three years from the first meeting of the House after an election. This means that a Federal Election for the House of Representatives may be called at any time in the three years following the first sitting of the House. The Governor-General may also dissolve the House sooner than the three-year term.
The latest possible date of the next election is within 68 days from the expiry of the House. As the 47th Parliament first met on Tuesday, July 26 2022, it is due to expire on Friday, July 25 2025. The election for the House of Representatives must therefore be held by September 27 2025, the last Saturday within these 68 days. However, elections are generally called well before constitutionally or legally necessary.”
To make it clear, I support fixed election dates with 3-year terms, but in this instance, my support for an extended period of punishment for the conservative side of politics is as important to me as it is rising every day. And at my age, that is important.
Now, allow me to put this into perspective. After almost ten years of the worst kind of grossly offensive governance, the Liberal and National parties lost the 2022 election on May 21.
In the time that has elapsed since that date, not once have I heard from the lips of a conservative politician any form of regret or apology, even remorse or shame. On the contrary, we have been served a recipe of poached platitudes, banalities and lies.
To listen to them is like listening to those who cannot express themselves adequately and repetitively mumble, “but we were still born to rule.”
People will, over time, forget their crimes of corruption, the scandals and their men of mad, destructive political beliefs and decisions. Of inequality toward women and lacking equality of opportunity. All of which have been identified in various media over the years and will now be investigated by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC).
We must do as I am now, reminding everyone of how foolish and rotten they were. Then repeating it repeatedly because another ten years would be unbearable and disastrous for our nation.
And this is why we must remind the electorate right up to the next election and beyond. Now you ask what would prevent another Luddite period of (mostly) men.
Going early is not uncommon. It allows you to govern for five straight years in circumstances primarily to your benefit. It will enable you to fulfil promises in an unfulfilled, more orderly manner.
An early election campaign creates the opportunity to remind the punters of just how deplorable the conservatives governed.
Another reason the conservatives will be up against it in the next election is that many mature-aged voters dropped from the rolls and were replaced with a cohort of young folk seeking change. This is guaranteed to transpire again. Both parties knew this would happen sometime, but the LNP did nothing about it. A note of caution is that the young are desperate for change. By that, I mean significant, meaningful change that excites and promotes new ways of doing things.
Women still feel ostracised by a party that showed them an indifference that harks from an Elizabethan period when women weren’t allowed to vote or inherit. Labor needs to remind women of the LNP’s misogyny and unrefined manners.
On the road to a new election, events will emerge to focus on the former Government’s corruption. A steady stream of bad news will be revealed on the road to the latest election. I speak of Robodebt and the long list of severe misdemeanours that will be placed before the NACC in June. The Robodebt Royal Commission report will be handed to the Governor General in mid-July. The report is expected to be explosive.
Of course, the best thing Labor has going for it, is Peter Dutton himself. On all accounts, he thinks there is nothing wrong with the party he leads. Its philosophy, its morality, its trust, its economic credentials and its equality. Peter Dutton is so disliked by all and sundry that he couldn’t win an election if he started now.
Having said all this, it must be noted that there is much to do. Labor’s first year has also seen many challenges.
Inflation is still high, as are interest rates, the cost of living is higher than it should be, and housing and rents are also high. Most of this mess the Government has inherited from the LNP. Much of it has come from events beyond Labor’s control, eg the war in Ukraine and the pandemic.
Then there is The Voice referendum. If it were to pass despite Peter Dutton’s hatchet job, it would give our First Nations people a voice in their future and allow Labor a free hand to complete its agenda. Dutton, in dismissing any form of bipartisanship, has played to form.
Labor has fulfilled 18 of its significant commitments, whilst others, like The Voice are a work in progress, and some are on hold pending the release of reports.
While writing, I also had Question Time playing on my iPad. The deputy leader of the Liberal Party, Susan Ley, asked the Prime Minister a question that she couldn’t seem to make coherent. The House burst into laughter at its stupidity. The Prime Minister admirably addressed it by calling it a salad, which I thought; “That the word salad sums up this Opposition.” It’s a combination of many ingredients. I’ll leave the dressing with you.
Later this year, Labor must announce significant changes leading into a fresh election. One that will cement the middle ground and a further three years.
My thought for the day
We can often become so trapped in the longevity of sameness that we never see other ways of doing things.
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40 comments
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LambsFry Simplex.
Return to home pageA cunning plan Mr Lord but you have forgotten the lesson from history when Mr Fraser, having finally learned how to decipher the polls, called an early election? Even though Pete is as popular as a poop in a pantry, lurking behind him is Susssan who could easily sweep away all those pesky Teals by forming an all female shadow cabinet of talented backbenchers and where would Albo be then? Probably re-elected. Nah! It’s an OK plan, I guess.
Susssan who could easily sweep away all those pesky Teals by forming an all female shadow cabinet of talented backbenchers
That’s a bit of tongue in the cheek humour, right ?
Terence (Hardy?),
No, I was attempting to be subtle: if I’d wanted to try to be funny, I’d have had Michaelia Cash instead of Susssan.
Geoff, Fraser’s timing had a large dose of rotten luck (for him). Unbeknown to him, at the moment he called the election coincided with Labor dumping Hayden in favour of Hawke. He couldn’t have timed it worse if he tried.
Not calling an early election can also work against you. Rudd, enjoying the highest rating of a PM was encouraged to call an early election to make the most of popularity. He refused, vowing to go the full term. We all know what happened after that: the Murdoch media set out to destroy him.
Ye JL,
That is a stratagy that I think worthy. Albo should take note if he has not already.
Meanwhile there are two major blocks
1. Albo will get a real grief from the LNP, if he is forced to drop those words in the proposed voice to Parliament, which are creating significant divisions in the country, however it is better than a defeat in the referendum.
2. Albo must have a plan B if the referendum does not get up in its current form. Right now I sense a growing disquiet against the referendum just because of the wording, if Albo does not resolve this disquiet, he may well face defeat at the ballot box.
There is nothing like good old fashion biotry, discrimination and gaslighting to muddy the waters, nd to say that the LNP is very very good at that is an understatement.
Don’t mind the idea of an early election,trample what’s left of the garbage into the ground.As an added bonus it would remove the execrable walloper from our sight.However,it would be tempting some of us who have been disappointed with some moves,USUKA, for example to look more closely at Indies,Teals and Greens.Labor didn’t garner a landslide win,it was more a rejection of the filthy rabble personified by the Liar.To me ,Albo is looking like he might be prone to imagining himself as ‘presidential’.,and they still carry some mediocre ‘lifers’.If they go early it might be wise to promote some new,younger talent in advance.Would he have the balls?…probably not.
Harry Lime I agree that Albanese’s USUKA (AUKUS) deal will influence many Labor “true believers” to direct their vote else where.
There was an obvious salient lesson that Albanene ignored in the diabolical fiasco that is the Hunter Frigate mess when Albanese quickly claimed USUKA ( AUKUS) as his own.
An early election is almost a lay down misere
The mainstream media still haven’t learnt that it’s futile to put lipstick on this pigs arse of an opposition.
Peter Dutton said this, Peter Dutton said that. You can’t get away from the saturation coverage.
The dark repulsive melon of Peter Dutton followed by a breathless word for word report of what Peter Dutton said. And it’s not doing Spud, or the Liberals, one bit of good.
The esteemed blogger Grumpy Geezer summed it up in his distinctive style;
“In a party of roadside dumpers, shrunken intellects, onanists, P76ers, pelvic thrusters, doggers, Trumpers, pimps, Nut Bush lip synchers and shout absconders he’s the best the unelectable Tories have to offer”.
The polls suggest most voters agree with Mr Geezer.
Albo may be seen as a bit of a saviour, after the disastrous reign of Morrison.
But, big but, we saw folk switch to the left hoping to get something entirely different.
It didnt pan out that way when it came down to big ticket war toys, so we have the harsh reality that if things are to change w.e are going to need to swing the rudder big time.
We watched as the Teals entered the theatre, and were a bit gobmacked.
The next election will serve as a reminder that if we want change the rudder will need to go hard over.
The third party will be keen to give us new goals once a date is announced
I am sorry to say, I think few are listening. The LNP took all the oxygen out of the room, by trying to take the whole country to the cleaners, and by cleaners I mean the Big 4 ‘pork barreling kickback’ corrupting firms. Little of the work they did at public expense has even been made public. Meanwhile the (g)Nats are getting in on the gerrymander game, which hands them comfortable seats to make all maner of dodgy and self serving deals.
So, few people are listening and those who are, those who hoped for a hard left turn, are instead hearing subservience to the US delusions of war. China does not want a war with Washington, they don’t even want the US to default, but they don’t want to be caught napping. What we are not hearing is much talk of undoing the harms of Morrison. Of direct investment in public housing construction to rebuild the industry that rush for “homebuilder” subsides demolished. Nor are we hearing anything aimed to lower skyrocketing rents and property prices.
If albanese and the ALP don’t start showing some intentions, policy direction or results before heading to the polls, those of us who voted Labour on principle will be looking hard at alternatives. The Liberal brand is rotton, linked with lies, graft and contempt, it is high time the labour party shows some truth, integrity, and esteem, or they will have to deal with a minority government in their second term.
Never under estimate the stupidity of people. To vote against their best interests.
Meanwhile,back in Victoria,where the LNP smell like the dumpster out the back of the fish market,Shotgun McKenzie groans with delight at the Victorian Nats having declared their opposition to the Voice…who knew? With the fuckwit Littleproud nodding sagely in the background.Living in Elwood,Sportsrorts McKenzie has an unerring grip on the wishes of country people.No one with a clear view of right and wrong should even consider voting for such a pack of contemptible,blinkered morons.The stench is permeating the entire country.Bring forward the killing season.
Liam: “China does not want a war with Washington, they don’t even want the US to default, but they don’t want to be caught napping”
Well said, and I would add that Washington does not want a war with China, despite there being a lot of theatrical egging going on.
The big war that is coming is not a ballistics war, but a war on the destruction of the environment via anthropomorphic climate change, and all the big players will be involved, and it’s going to be a wild ride. In my opinion, for the ‘west’, AUKUS is a trojan horse initiator, a way to keep chauvinism / competition pumped, and a show of liquidity and employment leveraging, with the real agenda being in the rather opaque 2nd pillar (and recently announced “third pillar”) all of which China is well aware and has made no more than some theatrical squeaks about.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2023/05/27/pentagon-secure-australian-minerals-green-deal
There’s going to be plenty going on, and I have some confidence that issues such as housing / rental, stage 3 tax cuts, health, education, women’s issues and so forth will increasingly be attended to as the big climate change abatement / tech matters get underway.
Where all that fits with the various electoral cycles is not easy to know, and much of course depends on the resolution of the current US internal Punch & Judy show – in any case there’s a monumental rush on. We’ll see. But in any case, my guess is the LNP will be just left flapping in the breeze as they’re hung out to dry.
Michael @ 9.57am,
I well remember, with delight, Fraser’s “bad luck” although I think Hayden would have given him a run for his money (even a drover’s dog) but he knew he was dead meat with Hawke. From memory, didn’t Labor elect Hawke even as Fraser was visiting the GG?
My contribution was a droll attempt to equate Susssan’s popularity with that of Hawke.
That cretin who runs the Numbskull Party, Littlemind, reckons they are a sovereign party that will do it’s own thing. Yet they continue to fall into line with the Lamebrain rabble of The Spud at the drop of a hat. What a bunch of moron sycophantic dysentarics.
“…Littleproud told the Guardian’s Australian Politics podcast that the Nationals are a “sovereign party” that will “do our own thing”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/27/nationals-push-for-10m-fines-and-ability-to-break-up-coles-and-woolworths-if-they-abuse-market-power
Sounds like the brown envelopes have been getting thinnner and thinner so he’s throwing a bit of a tantrum.
Bridget Archer rants –
@1.13pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/may/27/australia-news-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-richard-marles-labor-coalition-liberal-party-defence-national-reconciliation-week?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-647171a28f0879b44af7ea16#block-647171a28f0879b44af7ea16
Whoops, Bridget Archer should read Bridget McKenzie.
Geoff, it was hilarious. You could have knocked Fraser over with a feather. 😂
Hawke was at the top of his game and the end result was arguably the best ministry to ever serve the Australian people.
Unlike most people here, I am not obsessed with a political Wishlist. Whilst it’s all lighthearted and funny, it’s only a wish.
Labor is obsessed with killing all the ghosts in its closet. Doing its darnest to atone for its perceived past failures to get elected. It’s a ploy that is just too obvious. It’s just too obvious it doesn’t want to scare anyone, from the tax cuts to Auskus, as in ask us how we feel.
Personally, I would put the dragons to the sword, unleash the ICAC on the ” three stooges” ( abbot, Morrison and the other fool who’s name I can’t remember). Make it so the Libs would never ever attempt to fuck us over again and lastly to help with their clean out.
Dutton is but a parody of all the shit we copped from the Libs over the last 20 yrs. that’s his generation and that’s all he knows. It’s like asking me if Abbott would be electable again. Abbott got elected because Rudd was a political dumb arse. Albo is not a dumb arse polly. I hope his experience will weather the stormy seas coming. Only when labor come out the other end will they truely embrace change.
It’s all happening in slow motion when we need a fast paced attack. But life isn’t a straight line folks.
I remember, I was in Year Four at the time, the teacher-librarian came in as we were watching TV and said, “Bill Hayden’s just stood down.” I didn’t know what she meant, but I learnt that Bob Hawke had been elected Labor leader later on. Malcolm Fraser was on the nose with many.
Scotty only held out to the last minute because he was trying to pull a rabbit out of his hat and failed. So, all he could do was go to the GG and say that he needed to call the election.
Paul Keating said, in 2010, “If tony abbott became Prime Minister, we would have to say, God help us.” If Potty Boy Peter dutton became PM, rather than what tone the Botty said about him on Four Corners, it would be, “What the bloody hell have we become?! Not only would we have someone with the personality of a wet paper bag, we would also have someone who stands for horrendous, racist ideas, has been a cabinet minister under three shocking leaders, and is generally about as likeable as rice with maggots.”
Michael, Joh Bjelke had a similar reaction in an ABC interview when he was trying to fiddle with the Supreme Court. The interviewer asked him about the doctrine of the separation of powers that he obviously knew nothing about. A long pause followed, face expressionless, eyes glazed. Bruce Dawe, a quite well known Toowoomba poet wrote a poem about the incident: “On the Doctrine of the Separation of Powers”. If you want the very best In unfocused looks: the glazed stare that goes backward into the head to ten mile farms & pastoral properties, ask them the one about the separation of powers – a sure fire winner for confusion. Thebes had its riddle; Camelot the sword in the stone; Rumpelstiltskin too posed a tricky one but here is no Oedipus, Arthur or lucky princess, only arrogance that has outrun experience. Like the cat in the cartoon film that suddenly finds, rounding a corner at breakneck speed, it’s dream-mouse changed into a monstrous boxing kangaroo! Apologies for not writing it in poetic form as the original is.
Geoff, I’ve got the transcript of that somewhere. It’s an absolute hoot. 😂
John Lord
Bob Hawke was a Rhodes scholar. Cecil Rhodes the ruthless imperialist created the scholarship that bears his name to assist people, like Tony Abbott who show promise at persuading people to mindlessly follow them, to gain the office of leadership. He was the epitome of the born to rule mentality. He was known to Australians as the man who would be Prime Minister long before he was even elected, more like appointed, to Parliament. Bill Hayden had no option but to surrender the leadership of the Labour Party to the ‘rightful heir to the throne’ so that Hawke could fulfil his destiny by winning the unloseable election.
With the election out of the way Hawke soon decreed to Australia that “The Party is over” and set a hard course to the right, eager to catch up with the right wing course set by Thatcher and Reagan in Britain and the US. He even declared with a straight face but no sincerity that the Labor Party had never ever been a socialist party. He turned Australia into a land ‘fit for the privileged’, privatising the people’s bank, and weakening workers by undermining the unions with individual enterprise bargaining agreements, while maintaining the support of what was to become the privileged super union the CFMEU with the multi-billion dollar construction of a palatial Parliament House designed, complete with fascist symbolism such as the flagpole, in the brutalist style beloved by Mussolini. His ministry was so anti environmental that he contemptuously made ‘born again greenie’ Senator Richardson Minister for the Environment to ensure the rubber stamping of development no matter how environmentally destructive it was. I suspect that he was secretly disappointed that unlike Thatcherism and Reaganism his hard right wing agenda never gained the title Hawkeism.
Arguably the best ministry to ever serve the Australian people? You have got to be kidding. Hawke was never, as portrayed, a man of the people, he was more like a duplicitous Judas goat and his ministry was more Iike a real life enactment of Animal Farm.
Sully, very good points.
The ALP is controlled by the US State Dept.
This is achieved by grabbing promising young ALP members and unionists, and sending them to the US for indoctrination.
Once, when I was working on an election campaign, headquarters sent up a young apparatchik to assist. He had just returned from a “study tour” in the US, and was starry-eyed about campaigning techniques used by the Democrats. The kid was high, thoroughly propagandized.
Steve,
Where is the evidence for your frankly ludicrous and almost tin foil cap statements?
B Sulliman. Thanks, I thought I was one of the few with no time for Hawke as union leader or MP. I agree with all you say.
Looking overall at ministries & what they achieved, one can’t go past Whitlams & Gillard. The present minister under Albanese is treading a similar path.
Didn’t Hawke want to appoint ministers outside the government, like the good old USA, undermining the Westminster system & public services?
GL, do some checking on the number of prominent ALP figures, past and present, that went to the US on “study trips” or some such similar euphemism.
I’m not going to name names.
Then ask yourself why it is that the ALP has so much trouble acting on its core principles, acting on the very things that voters are pleading for. Indoctrination in the US is not the sole reason, but it’s up there.
You could also ask yourself why you reacted to my comment with disbelief and sarcasm, instead of taking the trouble to check what I said.
To stay in touch with reality in this era of mass media manipulation, we need to question everything, which you correctly did with my comment. But the process does not stop there. It takes time and effort that most people do not have, hence the effectiveness of propaganda.
Steve,
It’s up to YOU as the commenter making the assertions to provide evidence to take your opinions and if you won’t then they will remain opinions. By telling me to, basically, “Google it” is just plain shoddy.
GL:
It is fact that privatisation the neoconning of Australia’s economy and industrial laws began under Hawke and Keating. They did achieve some good things, but the rot in the ALP started with them.
This is why I stop at Whitlam for the last great ALP (and Australian) PM.
leefe,
I was more on about Steve providing some evidence to back up his comments and not falling back on the hoary old, “Do your own research.” line. To be honest both major parties are as bad as each other. Labor for the moment, however, is not as stench laden and corrupt as their opposite number.
i dont subscribe to the US control over us. I think its a rather shallow analysis to see it that way.
I too think Hawke and Keating let the side down. Both were neo cons in my books. Both embraced privatisation for the simple reason, they gave up on being true to their words to get elected. And like the proverbial dog who catches the wheel had to show some policies to justify their power. Unfortunately, they thought that being better neo cons made them better politicians.
Just as Albo thinks just being competant is enough.
The solar power revolution/disruption is just starting to happen and we have no idea whats going to hit us. Just as technology got rid of lots of jobs, AI will severly hit the middle class yuppies. As I often say, control and shape our future before it shapes us. We have to go from laissise faire to a structured economy or we will witness mass poverty on a very large scale.
Apropos of nothing apart from the pleasure of finger-pointing and highlighting a sterling example of the utter absurdities which we are vulnerable of committing via utterance or activity contingent on the degree of relative consciousness and mindfulness at play in the fields of the psyche, on hearing of the impending resignation of the WA premier Mark McGowan, Liberal senator Linda Reynolds said “It is a bit of a surprise, but … we will go from the politics of the single person, the cult of the personality, ..it has been all about one man.”
Said the woman with zero personality who’s never said boo. Can anyone ever recall anything Linda Reynolds did in her career as a politician that had people saying ‘Wow, you go, girl. Good job!’?
Mark was a real gent. Our cycle group used to use the same cafe and he was always up for a happy chat as we got served.
Looking forward to seeing him back there, but he certainly gave of himself.
I would suggest all albanese needs to do to win the next election, whenever it is held, is properly fund the ANAO and NACC.
Between robodebt, sports rorts, pwc and countless other examples of maladministration under the abbot/turnbull/morrison government there could be years of sensational headlines.
Every day that passes is a day closer to murdoch, his major benefactor gerry harvey and most of the coalitions supporters pushing up daisies. And besides, holding an early election may precipitate dutton(who is about as popular as a dose of the clap in a convent) being replaced as leader.
If albanese stays the course as liberal lite the next serious election could be between labor and the greens. Not the transformative vision of Gough but I’ll take that as a win.
It’s quite surprising that a couple of regular readers of this alternative news and information site, seem to be unaware of the far-reaching influence, significance, and use, of “soft power.”
A pretty standard definition of soft power goes “soft power is the ability to co-opt rather than coerce. In other words, soft power involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction.” This is good as far as it goes, but you have to dig deeper to get the full story.
Soft power can certainly be as benign as that definition suggests; influence in global affairs can be achieved simply by setting a good example. But increasingly influence is gained by purchasing it. In some cases that means bribery.
The term was popularised in the late 1980s by Joseph Nye, who, from my limited reading on the subject, was aware that soft power had a dark side, as in its use as he noted by “Hitler, Stalin and Mao”, but he somehow failed to see the dark side of US exercise of soft power. He did however, make a solid point with this further explanation — “Soft power is not a form of idealism or liberalism. It is simply a form of power, one way of getting desired outcomes.”
Nye himself tried to exclude bribery from the concept of soft power with this; “Soft power is the ability to obtain preferred outcomes by attraction rather than coercion or payment.” In the same article he also excluded propaganda, but it’s rather obvious that propaganda and payments are so distant from intervention, threats and coercion, that they neatly fit the soft power concept. To use his own words, propaganda and payments are “simply a form of power, one way of getting desired outcomes.”
One definition of soft power at a US web-site states “Soft power refers to the ability to achieve goals by attraction through political, moral or cultural influence; and, at times, by subtle economic means.” I think payment and propaganda fit perfectly into that. Some might argue that sanctions would fit that definition also because they do not involve the military, but I see sanctions, because they kill the innocent, as being more in line with war crimes.
The capacity of the US to engage in this form of soft power became an almost unstoppable force when the gold standard was dropped and the US dollar became the basis of global trade. The dollar printing press has been flat out ever since, with no recognition that this is not sustainable. But the ability of the US to buy influence is impressive.
Does this buying of influence constitute bribery? Consider this from Paul Craig Roberts, a former economist with the US government at the highest level.
“My Ph.D. dissertation chairman, who became a high Pentagon official assigned to wind down the Vietnam war, in answer to my question about how Washington gets Europeans to always do what Washington wants replied: “Money, we give them money.” “Foreign aid?” I asked. “No, we give the European political leaders bagfuls of money. They are for sale. We bought them. They report to us.”
Another means of buying influence is through NGOs, supposedly aid agencies but actually, just arms of US foreign policy.
An example from Iraq is illustrative.
The substantial gains the Iraqi education system had achieved by the late 1980s under Saddam Hussein quickly evaporated in the ’90s. When the United States commenced its bombing campaign against Iraq in 1991, it deliberately targeted the country’s water, sanitation and electricity infrastructure. The bombing, combined with sanctions, had a calamitous effect on all aspects of daily life. But in the discourses of soft power, the destruction of Iraq’s education system is presented with no historical explanation, thereby implying that Iraqis themselves are solely responsible. Consider for example this 2004 description from the United States Agency for International Development of its work in rebuilding Iraq, even as the United States was waging war in the country:
“USAID has committed $20.7 million to five partnerships that support Iraqi universities as they emerge after years of isolation from developments in teaching methodologies, research and curricula, and decades of diminishing resources and infrastructure damage.”
See that? No acknowledgement, not a word, that hard power was ruthlessly exercised to create the conditions for soft power to claim a noble and righteous position.
With the US in a position to throw dollars around like confetti, anyone who thinks that Australian institutions are not being manipulated in the same way is living in The Matrix.
@ Steve Davis: An excellent analysis. Makes on think that having the USA (United States of Apartheid) as an ally means that any other enemies are unnecessary.
NEC, thank you for your comment.
I know you keep hammering the point about being a friend of the US, but it’s a point worth hammering. (More on that later.)
I just stumbled across another example of how shallow Joseph Nye’s interpretation of soft power was. The example shows how giving money can take many forms, and that soft power is not the sole province of governments. Here’s an analyst describing the battle Turkiye is having right now with those who are trying to control their financial affairs.
“Erdogan’s ‘unconventional’ monetary policy was the basis for his exit strategy from the West for Turkiye. He challenged the conventional IMF policy of raising interest rates to attract foreign investors. Why would you want to attract the same people who previously pulled their money out of your country, destabilizing it. Foreign capital inflow under this model is just blackmail, leaving the government dependent on foreign largesse. If they don’t like your policies, they pull their money out, crash the currency and hope to effect political reform more to their liking.”
That’s the sort of shenanigans that go on constantly behind the scenes, but which rarely get reported in the news media. Luckily there’s a few contributing authors here that specialise in digging deep.
NEC, it just occurred to me while thinking of your hammer, that Nye might have come up with the term soft power, but he did not come up with the concept.
Back in the 1930s, while a prisoner of Mussolini, Gramsci described hegemony as the situation that exists when a dominated people accepts the aspirations, values and priorities of the dominant group as being legitimate to the point of being willing to fight and die for, even when those aspirations, values and priorities are detrimental to the dominated group. That’s the ultimate expression of soft power. He did not have Oz in mind when he wrote that, but it fits us beautifully.
The advantages gained by soft power can be quickly dissipated by poor political decisions.
It was a huge mistake by the West to grab Venezuela’s gold reserves (sitting in the UK if my memory is correct) after the West’s preferred candidate failed to win a presidential election. They followed that by grabbing Russia’s foreign reserves in Europe and the US.
As a result, the US is now seen by much of the world as untrustworthy, so trade is increasingly being conducted in currencies other than the US dollar. This was inconceivable a few years back. And it’s a development that gets scanty coverage in the media.
Alan Greenspan, former head of the US Federal Reserve, once stated that “The US can pay any debt it has because we can always print money.”
He overlooked the possibility and consequences of people walking away from the dollar. As with anything, the value of the dollar is tied to demand, so when demand falls….well, we all know what happens.
Bye bye soft power.
I agree with Steve Davis’ comments especially those relating to Hawke. Bob Hawke was no Labor man as far as I could see. When my Korean Veteran husband was assessed as totally and permanently disabled and given a TPI pension, my son was entitled to a free university education as part of his father’s pension. One year on my son was moved to Hawke’s HEcs scheme and saddled with a debt for the following three years. When I appealed the decision I received a curt reply telling me in a rather subtle way that I should be grateful for the government’s largesse. Our family were Labor rusted on and still are, but it was my first indication of what Hawke was capable of..
Now as to an early election . If the Voice gets up and Albo cleans out the stables with the NACC, deals adequately with the NDIS he should have a good chance at an early election. Keeping promises is Important and if he can deliver on theorises mDe, he can take the tax relief, negative gearing and franking credits to the next election. We are crying out for strong honest leadership.
I won’t be long, am depressed and off to bed.
I think there are dinosaurs in the right faction esp- you see their influence in SA, $50,000 fines for protestors.
Underneath, it will come back to some form of the ageless right v (eroded) left thing that will split it as it has on previous occasions. They always do well in the first term, then start bitching among themselves during the second, egged on by the tabloid meeja. and press.
Besides, there already some indication there is much flak bs behind the scenes as they walk back their best policies and people will again remember it.
Still, better bad than worse, as the last year has shown. Btw, liked Terrence Mill’s little joke early in the thread.