According to the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, who, for some reason, have taken over from the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment in reporting on Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, “The 2019-20 bushfires will have negligible impact on Australia’s progress towards its 2020 or 2030 target.”
This is despite that same department saying that the fires up to February 11 emitted “around 940 Mt CO2‑e, comprised of carbon dioxide emissions of 850 Mt CO2‑e, 81 Mt CO2-e of methane and 9 Mt CO2-e of nitrous oxide.”
To put that in perspective, that’s about 2% of global annual emissions. In Australia, emissions for the year to September 2019 were estimated to be 530.8 Mt CO2-e.
The department seems to be relying on the ability of the burnt-out areas to quickly recover and provide a significant carbon sink in coming years.
“The recovery of the forest is expected to be complete.”
However, it comes with the warning that “Climate change impacts, including droughts or more frequent and more intense fires, can affect the ability of forests to recover after fire.”
Much of their modelling about regeneration in the report comes from the aftermath of the 2003 fires in the ACT where 1.73 million hectares were burnt. The 2019-20 bushfire season affected around 7.4 million hectares.
Conditions in 2003 were very different to now. Nine of the ten hottest years on record in Australia have occurred since then with 2019 being the hottest.
According to the Bureau of Metereology:
2019 was also the driest year on record for Australia at 277.6 mm, well below the previous record in 1902 (previous lowest was 314.5 mm). Nationally-averaged rainfall for 2019 was 40% below the 1961–1990 average of 465.2 mm. The national rainfall dataset commences in 1900. Although every period of rainfall deficiency is different, the extraordinarily low rainfall experienced this year has been comparable to that seen in the driest periods in Australia’s recorded history, including the Federation Drought and the Millenium Drought.
Now, the fires are out and some rain has come.
But so has a deadly virus that has temporarily shut down the global economy.
As we deal with this latest crisis, it should be a time for reflection of values, a time to rethink priorities, a time to learn and plan for a better future.
Instead, we are being subjected to a full court press from those who want a return to old habits that we can no longer afford.
We are being told there will be a “gas-led recovery”, that we will invest in “dirty” hydrogen produced using fossil fuels, that we will subsidise fertiliser factories and aging coal-fired power stations, that we must stockpile oil, that we will get rid of “green tape” and “red tape” to facilitate mining, rampant land-clearing, over-development, habitat destruction, water extraction and contamination.
Temporary increases to welfare payments will be removed. Protection for workers and for the environment will be cast aside in the haste to get businesses back to making record profits that somehow never translate into wage rises for their employees or tax for the government.
We have an opportunity to change direction.
If the government doesn’t take it, then it will be up to the voter in 2022. The people of Eden-Monaro will have an opportunity to start the message.
We cannot afford to flout the grave risk posed by climate change and a government who wants to “do us slowly”.
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