Like I said a few days ago, if you’re going to make a prediction, make it a really unlikely one. That way, if you happen to be correct, you look like a genius; if you’re wrong it looks like a joke.
Why do I say that Turnbull will call an election?
Well, quite simply, he probably fancies his chances of winning an election more than he fancies his chances of surviving Monday’s leadership spill.
And think of it this way, if he wins, he’s asserted his right to lead the party, and if he loses a general election, he can quickly resign as a backbencher, causing a by-election that nobody will care about. So calling an election is a simple way of either averting personal disaster or revenging himself on the disloyal bastards.
On the other hand, if he loses on Monday, he’s stuck in Parliament until the next election.
Unless, of course, he decides to pull the plug anyway. Or hang around and cross the floor occasionally, just to cause the new leader grief.
Moving on, the question is will Dutton actually be Prime Minister by Monday, or will it be Julie Bishop? Or will it be a surprise out of left field like Scott Morrison? Perhaps, Kevin Andrews will put his hand up, but surely even he couldn’t have that little grasp on reality.
And Tony Abbott? While there’s almost no chance that they’d go back to him, will he return to the ministry?
The soap opera continues…
By the way, this is what Rupert tweeted in 2015. Bill seems to have stuck around longer than Mr Murdoch thought!