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Turnbull Loses Several Votes In Preselection Contests!

OK, this is not well-researched or – indeed – full of the sort of off the record quotes that we’ve come to accept as news, but I can’t help but notice that nobody is doing a count of the Liberals who voted for Turnbull in the leadership challenge who won’t be there if there’s an attempt by Abbott to regain the leadership.

But one can’t help but notice that one of those who voted for Turnbull in the spill, Macfarlane, is going. Now who’s taking his place?

And Bronwyn Bishop – who voted against Abbott rather than for Turnbull – is taking that long helicopter ride into the distance… As opposed to her usual short helicopter ride to her waiting car! Her replacement was endorsed by Abbott just a couple of weeks ago.

All right! That is only two, but like I said this isn’t well-researched or full of quotes from Liberals who’ll tell you anything providing they don’t ever have to admit that they were just telling a journalist something that they wanted reported. But I’d like to remind you that in a contest where the results were 54-44, then two votes the other way isn’t just potentially two votes lost, it’s also potentially two votes won. In other words, it would be 52-46 if they vote the other way. So Turnbull only had a margin of five votes!

Now when one takes into consideration the Turnbull supporters who’ve had to stand down and the IPA members who’ve decided that it’d be better if they were paid by the taxpayer instead of being paid by an organisation that complains when anyone or anything is paid by the taxpayer – (OK, the IPA doesn’t believe that the taxpayer should actually pay taxes until the whole legislative process is privatised, but the fact that Tim Wilson took on a job from an organisation that he thought should be abolished doesn’t make him a hypocrite. Tim Wilson was a hypocrite long before that!)

Anyway, I think I may have left that sentence dangling …

Oh yes, if one takes into consideration the people who supported Turnbull just because he promised them a return to the ministry who are now disappointed and add them to the changes, then my best guess is that he no longer has the numbers… I’m not including Scott Morrison in this, because they took a car ride together a few weeks ago, so it’s obvious that Scott has no regrets about backing Turnbull and will certainly vote for him in any future spill …

Well, not now, but after the election. Assuming, of course, that no seats change hands. Which is pretty silly because there’s never been an election where no seats change hands.

To sum up:

1. Turnbull is screwed whatever!
2. When I repeat things that are true, it sounds like I make no sense; when the political commentators do it, it’s harder to see that they’re just rambling because they use phrases like “sources close to Tony Abbott” and “if this were repeated in a general election”!
3. Nobody is doing a count of the votes Turnbull would actually have, if a spill was called after a state of emergency was called and general elections were postponed until after the High Court had ruled on the challenge to Senate voting.
4. While Sharman Stone’s replacement may be beaten by a National Party member which will be one less vote, but not an extra vote for Abbott, if Sophie Mirabella wins Indi from the Independent I suspect that’ll be another vote for Abbott.
5. It’s amazing that the media keep telling us how popular Malcolm Turnbull is, when it’s clear that even his own party wouldn’t vote for him if there was another alternative…
6. Coal is good for humanity. And by humanity I mean people with shares in a coal mine, because, after all if you don’t have shares in a coal mine can you be considered part of humanity?

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  1. Margot

    Bolt is gloating. Hasn’t caught up with news about Bob Baldwin yet though.

    Bishop out. Abbott betrayers beware
    And yet another of those who betrayed Abbott gets a taste of karma:
    Bronwyn Bishop has lost preselection for the blue ribbon Liberal seat of Mackellar tonight, in a vote that ends her 22-year career in parliament.
    The veteran MP and former speaker, who has been in parliament since 1994, will be replaced by moderate-backed Jason Falinski.
    The bad news is that the ugly Photios faction got a man up of the Labor-lite sort. (See post below.)
    One by one, picking them off. Who is next?
    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/bishop_out_abbott_betrayers_beware/

    Karma comes to Turnbull supporters
    Beware the curse of Abbott!
    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/karma_comes_to_turnbull_supporters/
    For lists of MPs who voted for Turnbull and Abbott see
    Australian Liberal Party, who voted for Malcolm Turnbull to replace Tony Abbott ?
    BY REDBAITER on OCTOBER 12, 2015
    Updated list- Australian Liberal Party, who voted for Malcolm Turnbull to replace Tony Abbott ?

  2. Carol Taylor

    Poor Tony, even his pick didn’t win. Walter Villatora is described as ‘hard right’, so I guess that this might be a mixture of Cori Bernardi, Morrison with a sprinkle of Dutton to add to the flavour. Turnbull’s pick and ultimate winner Jason Falinski is described as a moderate so perhaps a Morrison/Dutton clone minus the Bernardi. Poor Tony, he can’t even get the revenge thing right…

  3. David

    Great observation Rossleigh I have posted to Twitter, If it makes some swinging voters think twice about returning the Tories and definitely voting to return a Labor Govt, every vote counts

  4. Carol Taylor

    Hmmm, Morrison for PM? He’s certainly positioned himself well.

  5. SGB

    I have consistantly said, since the Turnbull takover, that Abbott will challenge straight after Turnbull is returned!

    Now I still think Abbott would, but am no longer sure that Turnbull can be returned.

    It’s looking increasingly possible that Labor will get the gernsy!

  6. corvus boreus

    Carol Taylor,
    Morrison’s ‘advantageous position’ will probably change after he has proffered his first budget as treasurer.
    I doubt that document, or the attempted sales pitch for it, will work in his favour.
    I suspect that, as with Abbott appointing Turnbull as the minister for copper wire, ScoMo was given the treasury position to force him to push a publicly unpopular barrow (in this case harsh budgetary cuts) and thus help stymie his future leadership ambitions.

  7. bobrafto

    This article confirms my prediction Shorten PM, Abbott opp. leader.

    It was only in the last decade that I have been given an inordinate amount of insight and intuition and not for my best best interests.

    It was in August 2007 I created this pic Down the Gurgler view here https://www.flickr.com/photos/bobrafto/392451746/in/photolist-AFqeq and 2 years later I went down the gurgler to the tune of over $2M.

    I ended up in a share house in Chermside after my misfortune and for me to discover a couple of months later that I was living opposite a creek called Downfall Creek, actually the whole of Chermside was called Downfall Creek due to wannabe gold miners on their way to Gympie getting stuck in the mudflats. Truly you just can’t make up this crap.

    But wait there’s more, that creek was amazing for its variety of inhabitants which boasted turtles, glass perchlets, eels a metre long and as thick as a man’s wrist, water dragon, wild ducks, rails, herons and egrets and more. I took to feeding the ducks and one morning while sitting on the bank throwing pieces of bread to mum and dad duck and their 2 ducklings an eel came up and snatched a duckling and pulled it down under the water, what happened next was simply amazing, the mum or dad duck, you can’t tell the Pacific Black duck apart, started paddling around in circles in super fast time over where the eel was starting on his feed and flapping the wings furiously at the same time and this caused a whirlpool in the water and obviously put enough pressure on the eel to release the duckling and duckling rose to the surface completely drenched and mum took it to the bank where it took 3 days for it to recover.

    This duck incident happened around August 2012 and I dutifully reported to what I believed to be a unique sighting to Australia Zoo who published my story in their magazine, now in December 2011 I created this pic called Whirlpool view here https://www.flickr.com/photos/bobrafto/6514639505/in/photolist-aVFemM and it depicts stylized duck and duckling coming out of a whirlpool. How crazy is that?

    Unfortunately there is a lot more of this stuff pertaining to paintings I created but the above serves to establish I have some form in intuition and my intuition tells me that we will have to endure more years of crap from Abbott.

  8. Carol Taylor

    Corvus, excellent point. I can’t see Morrison attempting anything which will be even modestly palatable to an electorate heartily sick of rorting by the (extremely) wealthy.

  9. Peter Ridgewell

    Would have to agree, Rossleigh. Turnbull is rooted. He must realise it himself, but, of course it wouldn’t look good (yeah, look even worse than carrying on as per the past few month) to bail out now. The Abbott followers in the LNP must surely be sharpening their knives to shaft him, for any number of reasons – losing to Labor (not unlikely), losing several marginal seats (highly likely), being too leftish (for them). Perhaps Malcolm will get the shits and resign, for any of the aforementioned reasons and/or the shafting. My bet is that he’ll be out of Federal Parliament before the end of the year. Any bets on sooner?

  10. 2353

    I reckon it will be a fight between Andrews and Morrison for the next Liberal leader. Then the party elders will actually read the tealeaves, do a purge, come back to the centre and be competitive. The Liberals also have financial issues – the NSW division is currently $4.4 million down the tubes and a decreased vote this time will lose Government as well as not provide as much public funding,

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