We have all heard the oft-quoted figure of 10,000 jobs being created by the proposed Adani venture in Queensland.
When the Indian mining giant’s expert witness, Dr Jerome Fahrer, admitted in court that the mine would create an average of 1464 full-time-equivalent jobs a year, Adani stood by the 10,000 jobs claim saying its figures included contributions from the mine, the Abbot Point coal terminal near Bowen, and the 310 kilometre rail line connecting the two.
Queensland Resources Council chief executive Michael Roche previously said the rail line alone could provide 2400 new jobs, which if correct (unlikely considering the source), would require the port to create roughly 6000 new roles for the 10,000 jobs figure to stack up.
A quick look at the government’s report Abbot Point Growth Gateway Project: Economic Impact Study paints a very different picture, stating that the construction of the port is capital intensive.
“The Project is anticipated to generate employment opportunities equivalent to between 82 and 164 FTE positions, comprising 39 to 78 direct FTEs and 43 to 86 indirect FTEs, during the less than one year construction phase.
After the construction phase, operational employment benefits would manifest for approximately five years in the order of one FTE.
These might not be in the form of new ‘jobs’ per se but rather a continued stream of employment opportunity for heavy and civil construction workers and their supply chains that rely on project-based work.
The indirect or flow-on economic impacts of the Project in terms of additional economic activity stimulated for supply chain firms is anticipated to be modest, as reflected in the value of indirect output impacts (i.e. between $12.60 million and $25.19 million compared to between $50.00 million and $100.00 million in direct impacts).”
Dr Fahrer’s report in court also estimated that over 30 years Australia would make $7.845 billion in taxes and royalties rather than the $22 billion Adani quoted.
Adani’s Abbot Point Terminal in Queensland – with a turnover of $268 million – paid no tax in 2013-14.
Adani Mining in Australia is owned by an Adani company in Singapore, which is in turn owned by an Adani company in Mauritius, so we are unlikely to see much from them either.
Referring again to the economic impact study:
“The proposed [port] project will increase the coal throughput capacity of the Port of Abbot Point by approximately 70Mtpa. Based on a short to medium term thermal coal price in the order of USD70/t and an exchange rate of between 0.70USD and 0.80USD, an Australian dollar denominated coal price of between approximately $88/t and $100/t can be estimated.
The Project could facilitate additional throughput of 70 Mtpa of largely thermal coal which would have a value in the order of $6.1 billion to $7.0 billion.”
The price today for thermal coal is USD43.1/t which on today’s exchange rate is about AUD60/t, substantially lower than the estimates used in the report dated July 2015.
The export throughput of the Port of Abbot Point between 2013 and 2014 was 22.9 million tonnes (Mt) of coal. The proposed expansion will increase capacity from 50 to 120 Mt ie they will have the capability of increasing exports by over 500%.
One of the key risks to the Great Barrier Reef is rising sea temperatures which will most certainly be exacerbated if this huge increase in consumption of coal goes ahead.
Tourism in the Reef catchment made a value-added economic contribution in 2012 of almost $5.2 billion and about 64,000 FTEs were generated by the tourism sector. Over 90% of the direct economic activity in the region comes from tourism.
Why on earth are we risking the future of the Reef (and the planet), and all the jobs and revenue it creates, for a company of dubious reputation who cannot find financial backers, who have been shown to have a poor environmental and work safety record, who engage in aggressive tax avoidance, and who have grossly exaggerated any future economic benefits whilst completely ignoring climate change?
See Hunt.
