Because I find it difficult to comprehend how it is possible that a government who has governed so abysmally, stuffed up so many policies, NBN, NDIS and many others; had 3 leaders in 6 years with individuals openly fighting with each other, who cannot decide whether it is conservative or Liberal, had daily Trumpish like chaos during its tenure (and continuing), can be so close to winning the next election.
I would have thought that any government as corrupt as this one would be so far behind that a bad loss would be inevitable.
I cannot help but at least try to understand what is the mystery of the polls.
The only explanation that readily comes to mind is that because we have been in an unofficial election campaign for some time now that the tightening which traditionally gives us a more accurate guide to how people will vote, has come early?
Let’s take a step back and take a look at this week’s polls.
On Monday, Newspoll had Labor on 52 and LNP 48. A move of 4 points to the LNP.
Note. A month ago Newspoll had Labor 8 points ahead. In real terms, this means that within a month, after the budget or when the election became a reality, millions of people changed their vote. How is that possible?
Some 18 months or so ago Newspoll changed the way they counted preferences costing Labor 2%
IPSOS had Labor on 53% and LNP 47. No move
On Tuesday, Essential had Labor on 52 and LNP 48. No move. Which is normal for them.
Roy Morgan had Labor on 52.5% and L-NP 47.5%. 2.5% swing to the LNP. Morgan is the only one that does face to face interviews.
Is it possible that because we have been in an unofficial election campaign for some time now that the tightening that always occurs has come early?
I asked this because a degree of tightening normally takes place after an election is announced. In this case, I suspect that because we have been in election mode for so long we will see little movement from now on.
Another factor that doesn’t receive much attention is that the cohort known as the swinging voter has no doubt broadened and could be as high as 40%. We also have the young voters who registered during the Marriage Equality survey and those who have turned 18 since. Most would vote Labor.
The only way to get a real picture of what all the polls mean is to lump them all together over a period of time.
The last time The Bludger track did this was on 30 March and they had Labor Leading 52.9 – 47.
This would mean a comfortable win to Bill Shorten.
On my previous post for THE AIMN, a comment was made by “Alcibiades.” He gave a very succinct view of how he thought the election would play out. I thought it worth another run.
At present the LNP has 73 seats to Labor’s 71, meaning they don’t have a buffer against losses.
Actually it is LNP 73 seats to Labor 72.
As a result of the ~200,000 new & early enrollments just of youngins onlyonto the Electoral rolls just prior to & post the 2016 election & the ‘own goal’ of the Marriage Equality ‘Survey’, that translates to an absolute minimum of 3 plus seats to Labor.
Or to put it another way a minimum ~0.7% plus swing even if everybody else voted the same as for 2016(Not going happen).
These new & pre-enrollments are routinely not captured by pollsters or for that matter not commented on, considered or even remembered. Very odd.
Hence in reality LNP 70- seats to Labor 75 plus seats is ‘conservatively’ closer to the start point. With an embedded minimum swing of ~0.7% plus before considering under-represented polling.
The riven incompetent Coalition must win 6 or 7 seats minimum, whilst losing none nationwide to attain majority government.
Labor … 1 seat. For a third term Federal government to win 6+ seats & lose none would truly be … miraculous.
Because the seats in contention are limited to a relatively small subset of contestable seats, which now actively include traditionally ‘safe’ Blue Ribbon seats in VIC, NSW & WA, Labor could get over the line with a ‘smoothed’ National 2PP swing of only ~0.7%, whereas the swings in the contested seats would be dramatically higher.
Dutton’s chances of retaining his seat are barely one in three and diminishing. Labor will probably secure 90 plus seats on the current under-represented polling, which is inaccurately, based on the then 2016 preference flows.
Simply put, the Coalition lost 14 seats in 2016 and scraped over the line with one seat on a primary vote of 42% against a 2PP swing to Labor of 3%+. They have polled 36-39% primary vote ever since.
They have lost 51 Newspolls in a row. That will be further compounded by proportionally lower diminished preference flows.
If they talk coal or Adani they may score a few votes in QLD, but their vote in VIC will be even more catastrophic and so on.
Further cannabilisation of 2-3 of Coalition seats is likely independents/minors.
On current ‘conservative’ 4.4% plus national 2PP swing (excluding 0.7%+), that’s comprised of State swings of:
QLD 7.1%
NSW 3.9%
VIC 1.2%+
TAS 3.7%
SA 3.4%
WA 5.7%
ACT 3.9%
NT 0%As one wit on twitter put it:
I’m spending my future tax cut in advance now, to buy not one, but two brickbats!
The last factor is called “The Lord’s instinct.” It’s totality unreliable but it suggests the baseball bats are still behind the front door just waiting to let this government know what they think of it.
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MY THOUGHT FOR THE DAY.
“According to the latest polling, the worse the government governs, the more popular they become.”
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