They tell us very little, but we are still fascinated by them. Me included. At this time in the election cycle, polls suggest zero about who will win the next election, but people believe they do.
They only tell us what people may be thinking at the time of their collation. Opinion polls, especially so far out from an election, only guide people’s thinking and do not indicate how they might vote.
Take the latest Newspoll, published in the Australian, for example. The Poll Bludger’s analysis of it says:
“… the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 54-46 at the poll conducted from October 4 to 12 in the lead-up to the referendum, from primary votes of Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 37% (up two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). This is the narrowest two-party Newspoll results since the election, eclipsing two of the last four results, which had it at 53-47.
Anthony Albanese’s ratings have taken a tumble, down four on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 52%. The net rating of minus 10 is substantially weaker than his worst results for the term of minus one, likewise recorded in two of the previous four polls. Peter Dutton is at 37% approval and 50% disapproval, respectively, up two and down three on the previous Newspoll result, but equal to the previous poll. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 46-36, from 51-31 last time.”
What can we take from these figures so far from the next election? Just what has Dutton done to deserve the public’s support? Well, nothing comes to mind. What Newspolls do is provide Murdoch newspapers with a solid base from which to attack Labor. They create stories around their polling that are of little substance or importance.
So, the possible reasons for change are:
1. After 18 months, the Australian public has forgiven the LNP for its decade of rotten, appalling governance and is considering reinstating it at the next election.
2. People are happy to forgive Dutton for his past vulgar indiscretions and are beginning to think that even with his appalling record, he would make a better Prime Minister than Albanese.
That’s a bit like Trump might end up in jail but would still make a better President than the squeaky-clean Biden.
3. The people have tasted Labor and don’t like it.
4. The latest polls reflect the current economic conditions – the cost-of-living pressures and the slowness of change.
5. The poll slump was a judgement on how damaging The Voice referendum was to Labor. And it is a good enough reason – for some – to kick them out.
The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to Albanese and Labor. There is little Labor can do in this regard. Anything that would help at a personal level, like cash handouts, cannot be considered because it might add to the inflation problem.
It is pretentious to think that everything other than the facts is to blame for Labor’s poll slump.
The price of oil has increased dramatically because of two wars. The cost of food has risen by the size of overgrown pumpkins, and inflation is being helped by price gouging and profiteering from some major retailers. Increased rents are a hangover from the Morrison period, but Labor is blamed.
High-interest rates are, of course, affecting homeowners and buyers. Some of whom would never have experienced such an imposition on their budgets.
All of which Labor has no control over.
Although factually wrong, the Coalition convinces people that Labor is responsible for everything affecting them – even a shortage of intelligence.
Despite its slip in the polls, it is impossible to believe that the Australian public could be gullible enough to elect a government that performed miserably for almost a decade. Especially when it still has amongst its members some of the most devious, suspicious and corrupt men and women ever to have walked the plushness of the green carpet that so adorns the House of Representatives.
Let us remember that during an election campaign, Labor will continue reminding the electorate of all the corruption under the LNP – the lying of Abbott and Morrison. There is enough scandal to fill the first three weeks.
Do these current polls tell us who might win the next election? No, they only give us a snapshot of what people are currently thinking.
Labor has performed admirably since coming to power. Albanese and Wong have worked tirelessly to enhance our standing in the world, and restoring our relationship with China has been a highlight.
Despite the economic evil of inflation, Labor is or is committed to:
• Supporting Australians with the cost of living with cheaper childcare, cheaper medicines, extended paid parental leave, energy bill relief and fee free TAFE.
• Investing record amounts into Medicare and bulk billing.
• Building new homes, investing in affordable housing and making renting fairer.
• Tackling climate change by legislating to reduce emissions.
• Managing the economy and creating jobs in challenging times.
It is thus incomprehensible that these polls mean that the LNP has a good chance of winning the next election. They are what they are – a reflection of today’s worldwide economic environment. It will change over the next eighteen months.
A day or so after Newspoll published
Also out today was the latest federal poll from RedBridge Group (paywalled), which has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5; the message is repeated over and over. Support went from 54.1 to 45.9 in the pollster’s previous result from early September. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 17% (up three).
And The Roy Morgan poll showed that:
“… the Coalition leading Labor on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the 2022 election, at 50.5 per cent (compared with 49.5 per cent for Labor), up 4.5 per cent.”
What follows is from my post earlier this year, and without risk of repeating myself is still relevant today:
In the time that has elapsed since May 21 2022, not once have I heard from the lips of a conservative politician any form of regret or apology, even remorse or shame. On the contrary, we have been served a recipe of poached platitudes, banalities and lies.
To listen to them is like listening to those who cannot express themselves adequately and repetitively mumble, “but we were still born to rule”.
People will, over time, forget their crimes of corruption, the scandals and their men of mad – destructive political beliefs and decisions – of inequality toward women and lack of equality of opportunity. These have been identified in various media over the years and will now be investigated by the NACC.
Of course, the best thing Labor has going for is Peter Dutton himself. On all accounts, he thinks there is nothing wrong with the party he leads. Its philosophy, its morality, its trust, its economic credentials and its equality.
Peter Dutton is so disliked by all and sundry that he couldn’t win an election if he started now.
Having said this, it must be noted that there is much to do. Labor’s first year has also seen many challenges.
Inflation is a problem, as are interest rates, the cost of living is higher than it should be, and housing and rents are also high. Most of this mess the Government has inherited from the LNP. Much of it has come from events beyond Labor’s control. The war in Ukraine and now the Middle East, and let’s not forget the Pandemic.
Labor is fulfilling its significant commitments; others are a work in progress, and some are on hold pending the release of reports.
I am not convinced that, as these polls suggest, the LNP are in a winning position. Go tell the Teal independents that they will lose their seats.
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My thought for the day
I find it impossible to imagine that the Australian people would be so gullible as to return to a government that was so pathetically wretched over its three previous terms. But they might.
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