The mystery of polls is that they tell us nothing
They tell us very little, but we are still fascinated by them. Me included. At this time in the election cycle, polls suggest zero about who will win the next election, but people believe they do.
They only tell us what people may be thinking at the time of their collation. Opinion polls, especially so far out from an election, only guide people’s thinking and do not indicate how they might vote.
Take the latest Newspoll, published in the Australian, for example. The Poll Bludger’s analysis of it says:
“… the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 54-46 at the poll conducted from October 4 to 12 in the lead-up to the referendum, from primary votes of Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 37% (up two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). This is the narrowest two-party Newspoll results since the election, eclipsing two of the last four results, which had it at 53-47.
Anthony Albanese’s ratings have taken a tumble, down four on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 52%. The net rating of minus 10 is substantially weaker than his worst results for the term of minus one, likewise recorded in two of the previous four polls. Peter Dutton is at 37% approval and 50% disapproval, respectively, up two and down three on the previous Newspoll result, but equal to the previous poll. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 46-36, from 51-31 last time.”
What can we take from these figures so far from the next election? Just what has Dutton done to deserve the public’s support? Well, nothing comes to mind. What Newspolls do is provide Murdoch newspapers with a solid base from which to attack Labor. They create stories around their polling that are of little substance or importance.
So, the possible reasons for change are:
1. After 18 months, the Australian public has forgiven the LNP for its decade of rotten, appalling governance and is considering reinstating it at the next election.
2. People are happy to forgive Dutton for his past vulgar indiscretions and are beginning to think that even with his appalling record, he would make a better Prime Minister than Albanese.
That’s a bit like Trump might end up in jail but would still make a better President than the squeaky-clean Biden.
3. The people have tasted Labor and don’t like it.
4. The latest polls reflect the current economic conditions – the cost-of-living pressures and the slowness of change.
5. The poll slump was a judgement on how damaging The Voice referendum was to Labor. And it is a good enough reason – for some – to kick them out.
The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to Albanese and Labor. There is little Labor can do in this regard. Anything that would help at a personal level, like cash handouts, cannot be considered because it might add to the inflation problem.
It is pretentious to think that everything other than the facts is to blame for Labor’s poll slump.
The price of oil has increased dramatically because of two wars. The cost of food has risen by the size of overgrown pumpkins, and inflation is being helped by price gouging and profiteering from some major retailers. Increased rents are a hangover from the Morrison period, but Labor is blamed.
High-interest rates are, of course, affecting homeowners and buyers. Some of whom would never have experienced such an imposition on their budgets.
All of which Labor has no control over.
Although factually wrong, the Coalition convinces people that Labor is responsible for everything affecting them – even a shortage of intelligence.
Despite its slip in the polls, it is impossible to believe that the Australian public could be gullible enough to elect a government that performed miserably for almost a decade. Especially when it still has amongst its members some of the most devious, suspicious and corrupt men and women ever to have walked the plushness of the green carpet that so adorns the House of Representatives.
Let us remember that during an election campaign, Labor will continue reminding the electorate of all the corruption under the LNP – the lying of Abbott and Morrison. There is enough scandal to fill the first three weeks.
Do these current polls tell us who might win the next election? No, they only give us a snapshot of what people are currently thinking.
Labor has performed admirably since coming to power. Albanese and Wong have worked tirelessly to enhance our standing in the world, and restoring our relationship with China has been a highlight.
Despite the economic evil of inflation, Labor is or is committed to:
• Supporting Australians with the cost of living with cheaper childcare, cheaper medicines, extended paid parental leave, energy bill relief and fee free TAFE.
• Investing record amounts into Medicare and bulk billing.
• Building new homes, investing in affordable housing and making renting fairer.
• Tackling climate change by legislating to reduce emissions.
• Managing the economy and creating jobs in challenging times.
It is thus incomprehensible that these polls mean that the LNP has a good chance of winning the next election. They are what they are – a reflection of today’s worldwide economic environment. It will change over the next eighteen months.
A day or so after Newspoll published
Also out today was the latest federal poll from RedBridge Group (paywalled), which has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5; the message is repeated over and over. Support went from 54.1 to 45.9 in the pollster’s previous result from early September. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 17% (up three).
And The Roy Morgan poll showed that:
“… the Coalition leading Labor on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the 2022 election, at 50.5 per cent (compared with 49.5 per cent for Labor), up 4.5 per cent.”
What follows is from my post earlier this year, and without risk of repeating myself is still relevant today:
In the time that has elapsed since May 21 2022, not once have I heard from the lips of a conservative politician any form of regret or apology, even remorse or shame. On the contrary, we have been served a recipe of poached platitudes, banalities and lies.
To listen to them is like listening to those who cannot express themselves adequately and repetitively mumble, “but we were still born to rule”.
People will, over time, forget their crimes of corruption, the scandals and their men of mad – destructive political beliefs and decisions – of inequality toward women and lack of equality of opportunity. These have been identified in various media over the years and will now be investigated by the NACC.
Of course, the best thing Labor has going for is Peter Dutton himself. On all accounts, he thinks there is nothing wrong with the party he leads. Its philosophy, its morality, its trust, its economic credentials and its equality.
Peter Dutton is so disliked by all and sundry that he couldn’t win an election if he started now.
Having said this, it must be noted that there is much to do. Labor’s first year has also seen many challenges.
Inflation is a problem, as are interest rates, the cost of living is higher than it should be, and housing and rents are also high. Most of this mess the Government has inherited from the LNP. Much of it has come from events beyond Labor’s control. The war in Ukraine and now the Middle East, and let’s not forget the Pandemic.
Labor is fulfilling its significant commitments; others are a work in progress, and some are on hold pending the release of reports.
I am not convinced that, as these polls suggest, the LNP are in a winning position. Go tell the Teal independents that they will lose their seats.
My thought for the day
I find it impossible to imagine that the Australian people would be so gullible as to return to a government that was so pathetically wretched over its three previous terms. But they might.
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12 comments
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Terence Mills
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GL
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wam
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New England Cocky
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Clakka
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Fred
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GL
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B Sullivan
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New England Cocky
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Terence Mills
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Andrew Smith
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GL
Return to home pageAll of a sudden a controversial High Court determination – the reasons for which have yet to be published – is according to the polls giving Dutton a boost in popularity and a suggestion that he and his miserable crew could form a more effective government.
Give me a break !
Any poll results from the Rupert/Lachlan meedja should be taken with a barrow load of salt.
Dear Lord, Australians elected a Rabbott and two multimillionaires, copper is good enough for the poor man, with vulture schemes for his money and a handclapping unknown at the same, rejecting a solid billy/tanya Labor team. The 2014 dudgetwas disastrious to our eyes and the rabbott went. The copper man was disappointing but only after his potential won in 2016(the bounce gave the NT a real CLP shocker). Third time was not lucky for ‘frankers’ hunting Labor and we got a real twit?? Even without the boost of ‘NO’ and the economic negatives(the positive go unseen and unheard in the media) Dutton is a real chance because Albo et al wont go on attack. Sadly our old age will be ^@@@%^TE$646 liberal.
ps
dance of the cuckoo,
dutton would have anticipated the decision and had a legislation ready to go. Wonder if the loonies would object to his bill??
You are always the optimist Lord, but Australian voters have short memories, about as long as it takes to down a pony.
The LABOR cellar-dwellers are scared of the light that must be shone on the COALition; through the Internet social media rather than Murdoch Media Monopoly. Time to get out the ”dirt files” and air them well in public. The LIARBral$ have demonstrated contempt for truth in advertising & political propaganda, so the bar is set at ground level.
Where are the organised branch members pursuing the COALition agenda of complaining about the short-comings of every FRWNJ proposition, backed up with factual evidence showing the disadvantages ….. fact or fiction really no longer matters, except to the credibility of the author.
LABOR is doing a fine job of cleaning up the financial mess left behind by the COALition but the leadership needs to stand up and be counted on matters that are important to Australian voters. Like bringing charges against corrupt COALition politicians, standing up for transparency, and protecting whistle-blowers.
The LABOR party has campaigned for too long without the support of Australian media. Indeed, it appears that membership of the LIARBRAL$ is an employment pre-requisite for journalism. This impediment must be circumvented ….. and the Independents have shown the way. Back to round the kitchen table discussions, forming action groups & exposing laziness or pecuniary interests at every level of government, including local councils.
As we wandered, wondering about the next meal, gathering what we could, and gleaning clues from the eyes and lips of others, but for clothes and shelter, was there a need for anything else other than to know about the weirdness of commingling?
WTF is governance and administration?
Can it operate via the old and worn tropes of the sky pilots, narcissists and despots? Only if one wants a continuation and amplification of blood-soaked desertification since man sought the ground of others.
Since clay tablets and scrolls, through Gutenberg and on to Rupert, the engraving of ululations and glyphs have gone from meaningful message to dreams of paradise, the engineering of plentitude, edicts of power and dominion, the benefits of bling and prettiness, and the paranoia of adding up the score and projecting it to the future as if human irrationality can be overcome by control.
Does it have any meaning? Seems we’ll pay in many ways to eat ourselves out of house and home, and even pay to be told how to do it. What a race!
Wonders will never cease to amaze.
Time for a poll about real consequences like: “Given that somebody must be responsible, please nominate at least one (more than one is acceptable), of the following ministers associated with the Robodebt scheme that should spend time in prison: Scott Morrison, Marise Payne, Malcolm Turnbull, Alan Tudge, Christian Porter and/or Stuart Robert”. For a bit of fun add “Please nominate the respective length of internment”.
What’s the bet that ThugSpud jumps on this with unreserved glee and tries to hammer federal Labor (never mind that it’s a state matter) and their being “weak and ineffective”?
https://www.news.com.au/national/crime/police-on-the-hunt-for-man-after-woman-in-her-60s-found-dead-another-woman-injured/news-story/a087d1538cb944ac89e5ace2a18e1a7e
No cheap politicising and scumbaggery is ever enough for the Spud.
Depending upon the size and dispersion of the sample of people polled then statistical mathematics guarantee a reasonably accurate prediction of how the total population will vote. The polls when compared with the total primary vote are always pretty accurate. Even Morrison’s miracle election result was reflected accurately when comparing the overall primary vote with the preceding polls that predicted his defeat. The discrepancy between the polls and the actual election result are distorted by the electoral system which is based upon winning electorates, not on a straight forward democratic head count. Add to that the inequality in the number of votes required to win regional seats compared with city seats, plus the obligation imposed by preferential voting to endorse candidates who do not represent the voter’s political will and is it any wonder that the polls appear to get it wrong? The polls are based upon a democratic count, the elections are not.
The tragic thing is that the polls give a more accurate reflection of the democratic will of all of the people of Australia than the Federal Election system of Australia does. The polls just aren’t set up with the biases and distortion required to accurately predict Australian style elections which routinely produce non-democratic governments like Morrison’s or the current minority Albanese Goverment which with only a third of the total primary vote never the less maintains a majority status in its own right in Parliament.
@B Sullivan: Your advocacy for a ”first past the post” winner election system is exactly what put those political genii into power to destroy national economies and private lives in England, America and indeed every country where such too easily corrupted elections are held. Think David Cameron, Liz Truss, Maggie Thatcher & Boris Blowjob in England; Shrubya Bush, Trumpery & Ronny Regan in US.
Your statistics lesson (paragraph 1) excludes the NOtional$ practice of only polling voters known to support their position. This is called ”corrupt polling” or politely ”statistical bias”. Furthermore, you ignore the impact of Murdoch Media Monopoly on public thinking since 1973 when Rupert was denied the position of Ambassador to the US by Gough Whitlam.
Then the many advantages of preferential voting are completely overlooked, especially how it caters for voters wanting ”the least damaging of two poor options”. Does any thinking Australian voter consider that any of the LIARBRAL$ pre-selections of adulterer Tudge, abuser Reynolds or the manipulation win by Scummo the Despicable, were suitable candidates?
The NOtional$ are no better, but their electorates have been more conditioned to accepting third best pre-selected candidates; adulterer, alcoholic, misogynist Beetrooter, Little-to-be-Proud of from the water thieving family, Anus Taylor of the $80 MILLION glass of MDB water. Then of course, the NOtional$ also have the benefit of misogynist husbands voting for their wives.
I doubt that ”the polls give a more accurate reflection of the democratic will of all of the people of Australia than the Federal Election system of Australia does.”
Rather, I hypothesise that the MSM has made politics so boring that the too large majority of Australian voters, generally considered politically ”middle of the road” have switched off to the shenanigans of the Canberra Bubble to concentrate on the important local concerns of football, beer prices and surfing conditions.
We have a landline telephone at home and we have mobile phones : we have never been polled by anybody about anything.
We are feeling overlooked and neglected !
In parallel recently the US had the NYT promoting a poll and claiming that Trump is ahead of Biden in key states inc. youth (after recent elections won by Dems, clearly not), but did highlight issues of polling population samples and specific cohorts.
Even if a well balanced and valid population sample, the issue now is that young and even up to middle aged and older, do not answer their telephones/mobiles if an unfamiliar number; many nowadays only use for PIN codes and data to run various messaging apps (in EU they would not be allowed to access to numbers, then need to ask specific permission from each person in the sample under EU GDPR; Oz our numbers are in the public domain….).
It always seems to emerge when the right is floundering and some pollsters cooperate with the media in ‘nudging’ and ‘shaping’ opinions……
Meaning, “It’s mine…mine…all mine and you…waah…can’t take it from me. Come back Poider we need you!”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-prepares-for-findings-on-senior-public-servant-20231121-p5elnw.html
Hopefully Labor will remove this thug and Spud crony.