24 comments

1. LawrencesRobertsJanuary 10, 2021 at 10:17 pm

   Remember also that marginal electorates get all the attention and grants. Bob Brown didn’t lose the election for Labor but he did not help.

2. Andrew J. SmithJanuary 10, 2021 at 10:37 pm

   Interesting analysis and especially the warning of not focusing too much on national or headline polling when the main game is each electorate.

   Australian media lacks resources and local media to cover the micro level vs. commenting on what they deem to be the main game i.e. nebulous media or PR construct of ‘leadership’ and polls.

   LawrenceRoberts: Unfortunately I am suspicious of the Greens, understanding they are a ‘broad church’ but unclear policy focus (or lack of) and Bob Brown…., while knowing too many ageing nativist conservatives in and/or vote for the Greens (often impairs &/or peels off Labor votes).

   Historically the environmental movement is not of the left but more right e.g. Madison Grant, while of the pre WWII Germany environmental movement members 90% were Nazis versus only 10% in society.

   Brown’s hero was Sir Robert Menzies and contemplated joining the Liberal Party in his twenties, while Krudd’s emissions scheme was jointly trashed by Abbott (IPA/NewsCorp) and Brown; the QLD caravan of was very unhelpful and utterances of Brown round nativist obsessions of (undefined) ‘immigration’ and ‘population growth’, that match both Dick Smith’s Sustainable Population Australia and white nationalists in the US……

3. RosemaryJ36January 11, 2021 at 12:49 am

   Fingers firmly crossed for a useful swing in seats in Labor states. But we need better policy advice from Labor to clinch it!

4. Trish CorryJanuary 11, 2021 at 6:16 am

   Thanks for writing this. It is good to get things into perspective.

   We had to change 500 votes in Capricornia and because of the Greens, the useless LNP MP we have had here since 2013, is now considered a ‘safe LNP seat.’ and Yes!! It was because of the Greens. They handed the LNP/PHON & Palmer a Labor-Greens hate the workers campaign on a platter. All backed by Murdoch who owns every newspaper and has free to air Sky TV in regional QLD.

   It was far more than the convoy of stupidity. It was a targeted attack on regional Queenslanders for almost four years by the Greens. Shorten should have told them where to go. He didn’t. He shouldn’t have had to, but he still didn’t. So people shouldn’t complain that Labor have been calling out the Greens since the last election. They completely killed our chances here. Canavan and Co were so delighted, they were thanking the Greens. So hopefully, they know who the enemy is after 30 years in politics, but I seriously doubt it. They will try to kill the election for Labor again.

   So I am hoping that what Albo will bring to the table is appealing to regional QLDers. I hope he distances from the Greens as far as he can. I hope that if the Greens try to make the campaign difficult for Labor, Albo will put them in their place, big time.

   The other thing the State election showed was a shift away from Palmer and Hanson. Although they gained one seat, the Greens went backwards in 77% of electorates as well. I think the next election will be between the two major parties. The other interesting thing was that every party was trying to outdo one another to see how far they could distance themselves from the Greens. Also, Morrison was rejected in QLD. He is not liked in Victoria and Western Australia are not keen on him either. So that is another positive.

   Due to covid I think Trust and Leadership will be key issues. I also believe job creation, health and social security will be key policy areas. I believe Climate change will be addressed, but it will be addressed through a workers lens of job creation. If the QLD election is anything to go by, I believe we will have a genuine major vs major election and that is where people will be thinking about putting their vote.

   I believe Labor will keep policy, focused and simple and I don’t think it will be a “lets focus on Labor and pick apart their policies while the Libs have none” campaign either. I don’t think there will lbe a big agenda this time. I hope people on ‘the left’ stop attacking Labor and stop moaning and complaining about Labor. Nothing else matters except winning the election. We cannot have another three years of Morrison. Labor needs to win back a lot of voters. They are going to upset some people “on the left’ by not having their pet policy area on display in the election. I hope people get used to that and understand if this happens, it doesn’t mean that Labor does not care about that issue.

   And if people are so up in arms about a large policy agenda – The Liberals won in 2013 with a booklet, in 2016 with a Pamphlett and in 2019 with nothing. If Labor decided to go with nothing, drank tequila on the beach all day and just did an all out onslaught on the LNP, I’d be 100% perfectly fine with that, if it meant giving us the best chance to win.

   A campaign is not a term of Government. Labor cannot afford to be purists. People living under the poverty line can’t afford for Labor to be purists. Purists don’t win elections. Just ask the Greens.

   Once again, thanks for this article. It should give people hope that this battle is far from over.

5. Joe CarliJanuary 11, 2021 at 8:20 am

   Great comment, Trish….well said..

6. New England CockyJanuary 11, 2021 at 8:27 am

   Now Rossleigh ….IMHO I believe that you are far more use to the educated forward thinking Australians by continuing your pithy contributions to AIMN. Remember, somebody once said, ”The pen is mightier than the sword”, especially when the voters can read thanks to a state school education system.

   But why was Bass (Tas) omitted where a swing >0.41% would unseat Bridget Archer (Lib)?? Tasmania is not a foreign country even though it is frequently omitted from the Australian map, and Tasmaniacs have previously been so upset with a government that they have voted en mass for the ALP.

   I have fears for New England where the Nazional$ are doing a dirty water deal between Armidale Regional Council and Costa Guyra Tomato Farm for the supply of Armidale drinking water to Costa through a taxpayer funded about $13 MILLION pipeline with the assistance of the NSW Minister for Agriculture (representative of the Nazional$ in Northern Tablelands), the Minister for Water, Giovanni Porkbarrelo and our favourite Federal ”family values” representative of the Nazional$, the adulterous, alcoholic, misogynist Barnyard Joke, who was re-elected in 2019 thanks to the support of Tamworth women who supported adultery.

   Now why would any reasonable politician believe that his constituency would support giving THEIR drinking water at a subsidised cost to a horticultural enterprise that has not built their own a water storage in a region having a history of regular droughts, while employing international visa workers? Perhaps it has something to do with the benefit of future ”political donations” to keep the Nazional$ unelected political hacks in metropolitan air-conditioned offices who control pre-selection and leadership challenges in the manner to which they wish to remain accustomed?

   More people remember when they laugh.

7. Phil PryorJanuary 11, 2021 at 10:18 am

   The article is of use and so are the comments, deflating as wide political observation is here. The odious crook Trump, and insane excrescence and pustular presence, shows more clearly than ever that being in office, in power, energises the natural criminal instincts, so that much evil is done, far more than as if by a Capone or Jesse James. Whole nations are taken, squashed, bled, ruined, and for every William the murdering, thieving, despoiling Conqueror or Attila, or Napoleon or Adolf, there are thousands of petty dictators and self centred short cut merchants bathing in self created imaginary glory, while oppressing us. Australia’s careerist politicians allow for attracting low types, loudmouthed, defective, bashing away at the presumed fears and ignorance of ordinary people. And we are all ordinary and ignorant outside our perimeter. Australia, like all other nations, needs progressive, positive, community and society oriented government where the universal fair go helps all to feel accepted and denies opportunities for ratbaggery and grudges of the Hanson/Palmer type. But our secondary industry drive was brief, fuelled by W W 2 and not lasting, with a decline in the old working class, union related vote and attitude. This is a debased society of excess consumption, ruined by brain drenching advertising lies, money lies, environment lies and fears of lost opportunities and relevance. The Greens do not reflect a total policy range to convince people who see losses by the snakes before possible gains by the ladders. So, theft, lying, distortion, all aided by filthy foreign media maggotty muck, as Australians listening to and reading too much contrived propaganda, to their ultimate degradation in social levels. Too many have poor work, insecure, and cannot get loans to service for housing that is beyond reach anyway. I’ve ridden a wave in life, flowing onwards, but now, old and buggered, feel I’m crawling on a track outback, lost, doomed. But, thanks for the article, the company, the sustaining of hope, the belief in better, the wait…

8. Matters NotJanuary 11, 2021 at 10:24 am

   Trish Corry – you are a large part of the problem! None so blind as those who will not see.

9. Henry RodriguesJanuary 11, 2021 at 11:04 am

   To dislodge this ghastly government and its enablers, Labor needs to get tough, in the street, in the parliament, in state and local government, everywhere. Keep hammering the bastards until the voters wake up and the coalition and the corrupt media media are on the defensive. Easier said than done ? Of course not, but its got to start somewhere. Scummo has only a 1 seat majority. That’s incentive enough for me.
   I haven’t forgiven the Greens either, but Labor has to work with them, at least to keep them from further damaging their efforts, if it is to win.

10. DrakeNJanuary 11, 2021 at 11:26 am

    MN, Partisan thinks as partisan is – blinkered and self-righteous.

    The “Greens taking Labor votes” is the purest illustration of the sense of entitlement of the rabid ALP puritans.

    ALP wants more votes? Then the ALP must present to the voters the policies and actions that the voters want, as well as a certainty that they will take action to ensure that the wishes of the hoi polloi are realised.

11. Gangey1959January 11, 2021 at 5:10 pm

    Very interesting article Mr Rossleigh.
    Considering hte current states of affairs re covid19 in Qld and nsw, and the federal ministerial responses to the State actions etc etc, any general overview type prediction of swings for against would in my humble opinion be foolhardy at best.
    On your list of fragile lnp seats there are SEVEN, (and I checked a few times so I am sure) from the state of Victoria. You all might know it as the one controlled by that maniac Dictator Dan. Funilly enough, scottyfrommarketing and his cronies don’t seemm so keen on hanging (other) premiers out to dry any more, even Labor ones from Queensland who have handed him his arse in the last State election.
    I noticed a certain federal treasurer on the Victorian list, and a health minister too. Both were in there with scotty boots and all. Even the msm called their “home state backstabbing” into question during the lockdowns.
    We mexicans have long memories. Our Nation’s glorious dealer is good with spin and bullshit, but I don’t think even the great happyclapper is that good.
    Or maybe they were all just “joshin'”

12. RomeoCharlie29January 11, 2021 at 5:31 pm

    MN, HR and DN, sorry but mostly, I agree with Trish Corry though I might diverge a little on the need to obliterate the Greens. While it is fashionable to say, and I have been guilty of this, that Labor should work with the greens, it must be remembered that the Greens are a political party and, like Labor and the fuckwits (Libs and Nats in case you were wondering) they are trying to win. Apart from, sometimes, preferencing Labor over the fuckwits, they do Labor no favours in elections and that was made clear by Brown’s hamfisted caravan. Not to mention various other betrayals. The time for any accommodations between Labor and the greens is once the electoral dust has settled and each party knows where they stand ( hopefully with enough seats between them to ensure the fuckwits are ground so far into the dust that they are not seen for a generation). While sitting on a beach drinking tequila is going a bit far, reminders of Scotty from Marketing in Hawaii anyone, I think a platform of acceptable economic reforms, articulated well ahead of time and solidly supported is far better than the fuckwits’ policiy approach, ie. promise nothing and bag Labor loudly, falsely and maliciously as often as possible.

    Btw as a septuagenarian who last voted Liberal in 1969 ( parental influence) and with a range of friends in the same demographic, I wonder why the general presumption that the elderly vote Liberal.

13. VikingdukJanuary 11, 2021 at 5:55 pm

    All these considered opinions and lovely words are all well and good . . . But . . . What I wants to know, that picture, up the the top there, the liar and donny dumpster, are they comparing relative lengths, sizes, dimensions of their dicks? Is the bunker baby pissing on the jerk’s shoes? Is their life on Uranus? So many questions so little time.

    Never forget, groovers, don’t let the moose lick your car and used correctly and in the right light, razor wire is a thing of beauty.

    One for the frog and toad . . . She was an idealist in her artistic, political and spiritual beliefs who took enormous pleasure in the Australian landscape and wondered why it was so little appreciated by most Australians. Her description of it still has the depressing ring of truth: “a nation of pessimists full of fears; ideals are rarely to be found in the country. All their policies are based on fear.”

    Guess who?

    Give up?

    Marion Mahoney Griffin, Walter Burley’s brilliant partner.

14. DrakeNJanuary 11, 2021 at 6:06 pm

    RC29, I disagree and agree.

    There is little evidence that “…Brown’s hamfisted caravan.” had any significant effect on the May 2018 election, especially since the Greens vote actually increased.
    On the other hand, the CFMMEU bitching about jobs for the boys in the coal industry most certainly did.
    Fat Clive’s massive advertising demonising the ALP probably had a greater effect than either, though.

    Re. the ‘elderly’ vote, I agree, but only to the extent of myself and friends being in that category, too: Most of us consider the merits of the individual candidates rather than their Party affiliations.

    Generally though, the ALP does need to change its ways; to directly appeal to the younger and young-middle aged voters on matters such as climate change and income security via social media and alternative news media.
    Getting back on to the streets with the likes of Extinction Rebellion would do no harm either.
    The younger set with which I am familiar have no respect for the MSM nor the two main Parties who they consider to both be anti-youth and supportive of established wealth and power at their expense.
    Old school thinkers like Trish Cory are derided as 1950’s fossils who have no idea of the challenges which younger folk are experiencing.

15. Matters NotJanuary 11, 2021 at 6:24 pm

    Re:

    wonder why the general presumption that the elderly vote Liberal.

    Perhaps because they do? As the attached link will show (and there’s a mountain of evidence elsewhere as well), 55% of those aged above 60 voted Liberal while only 29% voted Labor. The Liberals led Labor in every demographic breakdown above the age of 35. That’s a disaster actually here with worse to come.

    So while looking at the link, note that in the 18 to 24 age group the Liberals scored a shockingly low 15% while Labor received 44% with The Greens at 37%. (A potentially combined progressive vote of 81%.) Turing our attention to the next grouping (25 to 34 age range) note well that the combined vote for Labor and The Greens is still at an election winning 58%. Figures, the progressive side of politics only dream about.

    No need to remind anyone of the cliché that the young are the future. Should be no need also to remind anyone, that both the major parties are in electoral decline, particularly the Labor Party. Seems to me that it’s only a matter of time for a new progressive leader to emerge – hopefully from the Labor Party.

    While the Liberals and Nationals hate each other, both are smart enough to want electoral victories. Thus they compromise. Politics being the art of the possible. Not so the progressive side of politics who seem to want all or nothing and we are all witness to how that turns out. When Whitlam was ascending through the ranks he spoke of witless men who ran the Labor Party at that time. Unfortunately it’s people without vision (or wit) who are refusing to see the bigger picture today.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/December/The_2019_Australian_Election_Study

16. JaquixJanuary 11, 2021 at 11:08 pm

    Very helpful article Rossleigh. I trust Labor is working on these lines too. Morrison bedazzled some voters last time with his antics, hid his ratbag MPs like Craig Kelly, and hadnt been PM long enough for swinging voters to realise his weaknesses. (Clives $80.million advertising helped too) Trish Corry good comment. Boothby in SA another possibility. .

17. Trish CorryJanuary 12, 2021 at 12:05 am

    The Greens do not wear halos. They are a political party. They didn’t strategically decide to target regional QLD for years by accident. They didn’t decide to campaign to loudly exclaim that they would shut down a key industry (which affects so much more than people realise in regional QLD, not just mine workers) by accident. It was also no accident that they never once consulted with the communities targeted. It was no accident that they campaign included that Labor (QLD) was corrupt and so was the Premier. It was no accident that Bandt timed his announcement to shut down the mines, three weeks before the election – shifting it from Adani to ALL mines, creating mass fear of job losses. (If you think that had no impact, detail which worker groups will vote themselves out of a job). The convoy was also a strategic decision. All of this is “layering’ in a campaign to sow the seeds of doubt and create division. For those who say there is no evidence this had an impact, it 100% did. The LNP entire campaign here, was 100% central to associating Labor with Greens and Greens being massive job killers.

    Shorten failed us by not telling the Greens where to go. Albo will not make that mistake. He already contends with the Greens trying to take his seat every election. He knows exactly what they are like.

    The Greens knew how this would play out in CQ. If they didn’t they are politically incompetent and don’t deserve a seat anyway. All of this over the years, was a long term strategic campaign to try to win three Brisbane seats in the state election. (I had this convo with one of the campaigners online back in 2015 or 2016, where they bragged about this strategy that they would attack Labor in QLD for as long as it takes and pull votes from them however they could). I understand people adore the Greens and think they can do no wrong, but when they are not the major party that can win Government; they need to focus on getting rid of the Liberals, not Labor. As Bandt said, His aim is to replace Labor – even if that means more years of Coalition Government. The Privilege in the statement is sickening. People are truly suffering under the L/NP. Self Promotion before people is not what this country needs right now and never will.

    Labor and the Greens may work together fine in some areas of the country, but in QLD it is the worst thing Labor could do, so please stop shoving them on us. The Greens are like poison here. As I commented before, in the state election, every single political party campaigned to distance themselves from the Greens. Even Katter got in on the action (albeit late in the game). An Party-Greens association here is death.

    In saying that, the main aim is to win the election. I want to see the Liberals completely decimated worse than Campbell Newman was. I wonder what others (who understand QLD) think of Labor being more supportive of Katter to shift the vote away from the LNP. Katter is supportive of Unions and workers. Some people talk about Labor should be more supportive of SSF in NSW to shift votes away from the NATS in NSW. Others are talking about in Big Blue Ribbon seats, finding actual progressive IND (a rarity) – someone well known to go against the Libs to bleed votes from the Libs in seats where Labor doesn’t have a hope of winning.

    Labor doesn’t need to work with the Greens. Labor just needs to stand up to the Greens when they try to derail the election for Labor. Labor will be the majority Government, not the Greens. It is up to the Greens whether they accept what Labor puts on the table, or if they will reject it and leave us with no progress on key policy area, like they have done in the past. It is up to the Greens to make a conscious decision to campaign against Labor in the next election, or focus all of their energy on the Govt (the fact that is even something to be considered, shows how instrumental the Greens are in assisting the Liberals). They should be able to win a seat based on their own merits by attacking the Government, so why don’t they? You all know the answer, even if you don’t want to say it out loud.

    The Greens will not be implementing their agenda and Labor won’t be having to negotiate with the Greens for their agenda, unless it is a hung parliament, which is what we need to avoid 100% after 3 terms of Liberal / National and a weak waste of time IND cross bench, that may as well be Liberals.

    People used to think the same about the Democrats, but the political world kept turning after they died shafting the rest of us. In terms of working with minor parties to get rid of the Liberals, the Greens are far from Labor’s only option.

18. wamJanuary 12, 2021 at 1:46 am

    Wow some of your marginals have labor 10-11% behind LNP. hahaha DrakeN loved your “Brown’s hamfisted caravan”.” had any significant effect on the May 2018(sic) election, especially since the Greens vote actually increased.” The significance is the increase in 1st preferences. The slimy lawyer led senile booby up the path to cash by making labor look weak no making little billy look pathetic on coal, spread evenly over weeks leading up to the election culminating in a screaming match with workers in townsville (two labor seats lost)within sight of the vote. It worked they took cash from labor in queensland and in the target areas of southern city latte belt up to a significant tune from $6m to $9m. Trish is spot on with “I want to see the Liberals completely decimated worse than Campbell Newman” and the loonies are millstones. The libs laugh every time a journalist give equal status to an extremist fringe by using ‘labor and the greens’ the best slogan scummo has. Perhaps albo could say the lnp and PHON in interviews?

19. Joe CarliJanuary 12, 2021 at 8:27 am

    It would not surprise me in the least if the LNP had a covert slush-fund channelling money via a faux environmental NGO to The Greens to help them in their electoral work….after all, with so many clumsy efforts from the LNP “vote-machine” promoting its “capabilities”, such an investment would have to be one of the most astute and electorally profitable ever!

20. KeithJanuary 12, 2021 at 8:29 am

    A research paper just published in Nature Climate Change states that we are locked into over 2C through climate change. It is dependent on how quickly that 2C+ occurs as to whether we can ride out the worst impacts.

    Research is taking more of an interest of particulates in the atmosphere created through bushfires and emissions from fossil fuels. Particulates from fossil fuels kill millions of people each year, mostly in poor countries. Though to a lesser extent developed countries also have a significant death rate created through emissions. Very much a social justice matter I would think.

    Temperature experienced globally for 2020 along with 2016 have tied, and are the warmest temperatures ever recorded. The scary part is that 2016 was an El Nino year and 2020 was not.

    Positions in coal mines come at at a huge cost to life, to infra-structure, and the biosphere … think in extremes of weather patterns amplified by climate change. These horrendous events are fired up through the aggregate of emissions from fossil fuels used world wide.

    What took thousands of years to happen with climate change in past epochs, is currently happening over many decades.
    Fossil fuels have taken millions of years to be created, they comprise of sequested greenhouse gases.

    There are alternatives to the use of fossil fuels … fossil fuels kill.

    By the way, I am not a member of a Green Party.

21. KeithJanuary 12, 2021 at 8:51 am

    Lancet, The British Medical Journal, Doctors for the Environment et al have all commented on the dangers of particulates. The deaths in Europe through particulates are displayed by … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6858990/ Reference to the study about over 2C being locked in … https://www.ecowatch.com/greenhouse-gases-paris-agreement-2649767807.html?rebelltitem=3#rebelltitem3

    One of the authors of study comments on a film associated with the article.

22. Henry RodriguesJanuary 12, 2021 at 9:05 am

    I sincerely hope Labor HQ is reading the comments expressed here because these are by far the best and most diverse I have read in a long time. We have got to get like minded or similar parties together to oppose the Coalition who as one said, hate each other, yet tolerate each other enough to get on with business of winning elections. Labor and the Greens are separate independent political entities, with members whose views they represent. Enlightened leadership entails knowing when to retreat and when to compromise, for the greater good. The differences in approach might be harder to swallow for some, but the prospect of the coalition crooks staying in government for a another term doesn’t fill my heart with much joy.

23. Consume LessJanuary 12, 2021 at 10:35 am

    New Zealand Labor are working with the Greens.

24. Suzanne CassJanuary 15, 2021 at 10:49 pm

    What an impertinent (not to say juvenile, foot stomping) notion, that Labor/Albanese should be telling another political party ‘where to go’. And that said, Albanese wouldnt take the opportunity even if it presented itself, because he’s too busy waving through anything and everything Morrison wants.

    Whatever passion, goals and vision Labor had have long since been lost, it is offering all but nothing by way of alternative now.

    Labor needs a decisive,
    passionate, visionary, charismatic leader. Albanese and Marles are just keeping their seats warm until the big pension largesse comes their way. Shorten was worth ten of them. There is nothing left that Morrison, Palmer or Murdoch can throw at him.

    Kristina Keneally and Julian Hill could do it too.

    Unless Labor, and its myopic sycophants realise that Labor needs to stop bickering with the Greens, and starts to work constructively with them, we will have Morrison for another one, or even two terms. Then, we’ll all be screwed.

    In reality, the two party system has not, and does not, serve us well. More Andrew Wilkies would be a great thing.