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The early bird

The Election is Coming, The Election is coming!

Thus the cry dimly is heard atop galloping hooves. The primly minister Turnbull is faced with dropping polls and a realisation among the populace that refugees are people too. The dilettante decisions by the front bench on privatising Medicare and alleged tax reform have cast a further pall on the re-election prospects of the current set of MP’s on the government turnstile. So much so that in recent days, murmurs of “judgement” have once again bubbled to the surface of backbench and cabinet.

The murmur became a roar today with a reported earthquake near Canberra so strong that it has apparently knocked Warren Truss and Andrew Robb from their precarious perch. With Robb stating that he was keen to start cashing in on private sector largesse, saying “”I’d rather do that at 65 than at 68″.

Despite cuts to the CSIRO, the forecast is clearly for an early election. Tony Turnbull… erm, good sir Malcolm needs to get a ‘mandate from the people’ as quick as he can, otherwise the slavering Morrison will certainly finish his sprint into the lodge before a September election (Assuming of course that the Liberal do not decide to give us all a repeat performance of the ALP two-knife-step). This is not good news for Bilious Bill, whose prevarication on policy has left even the most strident Keating-haters wondering where the ALP might find some leadership.

So an early election it is. But How? Will it be a double dissolution? Which bill will be the bill that sets up Bill for an election? Stay tuned folks. This is going to happen a lot quicker than any U.S. presidential primary, and whatever the outcome, we’ll have to live with it for the next 3-4 years.

29 comments

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  1. David (other)

    ‘Turnbull is faced with dropping polls’…oh! which polls, when, what numbers?

  2. Steve Laing

    I think you could be right. Rudd should have gone early in 2013 before people remembered why they thought he was a bit of a knob. Malky has done nothing to give any kind of assurance that he is different to Clownshoes, and the longer that continues the worst it will be. Bill’s anti GST pre-campaign might just have worked…

  3. kerri

    Warning accepted

  4. Michael Taylor

    David, this morning’s Morgan Poll had the Coalition down to 52.5% and Labor up to 47.5%.

  5. Ross in Gippsland

    Things certainly have brightened up since Christmas.
    Another night of the long knives can’t be far off.
    Dissention among coalition ranks is rife, the rats are abandoning ship.
    Ministers are dropping like flies, a stench of corruption is in the air.
    Sniping from the back bench from a lot of self entitled nobody’s is rampant.
    News corpse has turned against Malcom. Tones is Rupes best buddy now.
    Greg hunt being awarded the title “worlds best minister” has caused enormous hilarity and ridicule.
    How long before Bananaby Barnyard becomes deputy prime minister, that should cause a riot on social media.
    One dud treasurer replaced with a bigger dud.
    Peter Mutton still a minister. How?
    Cory Bernadi, enough said.
    Toying with Medicare will surely gain a swag of votes, won’t it? Co-payment anyone.
    The public just love jobs for the boys by politicians for politicians, especially if it’s a made up job so Phil, the corpse who walks, Ruddock can keep his nose deep in the public trough.
    When they finally blast Bronny out she who must be obeyed will have to have a high paying, high flying public commission of her own, Blackhawk supplied.
    Who was it that said in politics disunity is death?
    An early election it maybe but a sly couple of dollars on Bustling Billy for a win might not go astray.
    Anybody know a good bookie?

  6. David (other)

    Thanks Michael, missed that one. Any movement heading left is good movement. Nothing re Turnbull’s highs I presume?

  7. cornlegend

    A friend sent me this, I liked it 😀
    An airplane was about to crash; there were 5 passengers on board, but only 4 parachutes.

    The first passenger said, “I am Julie Bishop , the chosen one. The world needs me, I can’t afford to die.”

    So she took the first parachute and left the plane.

    The second passenger, Tony Abbott, said, ” I’m the real P.M, the peoples choice and I’m waiting to make a comeback so I can’t die ”
    He snatched a parachute and jumped

    The third passenger, Malcolm Turnbull, said, “I am the Prime Minister of Australia and I invented the Internet, I am Australias smartest man so I can’t die

    So he grabbed the parachute next to him and jumped.

    The fourth passenger, Bill Shorten , said to the fifth passenger, a 10-year-old schoolgirl, “I have lived a full life, and served my country the best I could. I will sacrifice my life and let you have the last parachute.”

    The little girl said, “That’s okay, Bill. There’s a parachute left for you. Australia ‘s smartest man took my school bag

  8. Matters Not

    While Morgan is at 52.5-47.5 and Essential is at 51-49, it’s still very much an uphill battle for those pushing for the demise of the current government.

    Truss is going fairly soon with Barnaby the replacement and Malcolm will not be impressed, one suspects. Can you imagine the ‘hayseed’ as acting PM?

    But that’s only one of his (and our) problems. Phil’s been bought off so that solves one pre-selection problem. But Bronny wants to hang on to fight ‘terrorism’.

    Consider the possibility that Malware will nullify her pre-selection ambitions by upgrading her travel arrangements to a Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk so she can effectively fight ‘terrorism’, particularly on golf courses and other known locations of ‘factional’ gatherings.

  9. Garth

    Made me laugh out loud Cornlegend. Very good!!

  10. David (other)

    Hi Matters Not, your descriptive powers are running on high octane, great post. Particularly enjoyed Barnaby as ‘hayseed’ and Turnbull as ‘malware’ top notch.
    Thanks for the polls info.

  11. JEANETTE

    Hi Matters Not loved your hayseed Barnaby and malware Turnbull (as I call him tinsel turnbull in the shiny suit) however love your description better which will become my Facebook mantra. It’s all so embarrassing and sad for this great country that we have such a lot of crap people trying so hard for it’s demise. I despair for my grandchildren, who will salute to the Chinese flag, have no free healthcover, have to work till they drop for foreign masters. Council elections in Queensland and the current lot with the exception of a few Fraser Coast are about to be booted out, in bed with developers whilst rate payers at a higher level than other in the State can’t get even a street cleaner in.

    a

  12. Geoff Andrews

    My Action Team for the coming election (now that Malcolm’s found out about the kid’s school bag – Cornlegend 9.33pm yesterday) would be the Best Minister in the World, Greg Hunt for PM and Barnaby Hayseed Joyce for Treasurer (he was an accountant, you know, so brushing up on macroeconomics would be a doddle.

  13. June M Bullivant OAM

    The longer they leave it the more problems will surface.

  14. cornlegend

    I’ll try one more .
    Plenty of them with this bright :-[ LNP lot
    Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, and Tony Abbott were set to face a firing squad in a small Central Queensland town {Vlad Laws got em}. Kevin Rudd was the first one placed against the wall and just before the order was given he yelled out, “Cyclone” The firing squad fell into a panic and Kev jumped over the wall and escaped in the confusion.

    Julia Gillard was the second one placed against the wall. The squad was reassembled and Julia Gillard pondered what she had just witnessed. Again before the order was given Julia yelled out, “Flood waters!” Again the squad fell apart and Julia slipped over the wall.

    The last person, Tony Abbott, was placed against the wall. He was thinking, “I see the pattern here, just scream out something about a disaster and hop over the wall.” He confidently refused the blindfold,fiddled with his surf club cap as the firing squad was reassembled. As the rifles were raised in his direction he grinned from ear to ear and yelled, “Fire!”

  15. Kaye Lee

    Apparently the Coalition are preparing for a possible July 2 DD election according to Murdoch.

  16. cornlegend

    Geoff Andrews
    I’d go along with you for Barnaby as Treasurer .
    I still smile when I remember Barnaby with this little exchange on ABC.

    Barnaby Joyce stumbles over billions in climate policy funding explanation February 03, 2010

    BARNABY Joyce has stumbled over arithmetic in his first performance as opposition finance spokesman, confusing trillions with billions at the National Press Club.

    And it has prompted Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner to tell The Australian Online: “If Senator Joyce wants to be the Commonwealth’s chief accountant he needs to learn his billions from his millions.”

    Under pressure to explain where he would find the $3.2 billion required to fund the Coalition’s climate change policy, the former accountant said he was “up to that task” of finding $3.2 billion in savings from $1400 million.

    “Let us look at the cost of this policy, we are looking at $3.2 billion over the next four years. We have expenditure over the MYEFO statements, if I’m correct of about $1.4 billion, that we’re going to spend,” he said.

    “The Labor Party is about to spend 1400 million dollars. So I think I can find 3.2 from 1400, I really do, I think I’m up to that match. That is approximately .2 of 1 per cent. That’s capable.

  17. Backyard Bob

    Kaye Lee,

    Apparently the Coalition are preparing for a possible July 2 DD election according to Murdoch.

    Using what Bill as the trigger?

  18. Kaye Lee

    They already have the union governance one but Turnbull was talking about the reintroduction of the ABCC

  19. Backyard Bob

    Not sure what is meant by “union governance one” but the reintroduction of the ABCC is potentially a fizzer for the Coalition. Labor and Greens have 35 votes to the Coalition’s 33. There are 8 others. I’m not convinced some of those 8 wouldn’t vote in favour of that reintroduction for their own purposes. That would suck, since the ABCC was always bullshit, but I’m not sure it’s the trigger the Coalition think it might be.

    Plus, what a petty thing upon which to force a DD election. It’s probably not the case that a GG has sufficient discretionary powers to tell a Government to piss off, and I guess even if they did it’s hard to imagine Cosgrove having the guts to do it anyway.

    Plus, I’ve been sleepwalking through politics of late so maybe there has already been a first vote on the ABCC and I missed it.

  20. Kaye Lee

    They also have a trigger from when the Senate twice blocked legislation to abolish the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

  21. Backyard Bob

    Cool. Thanks for that. 34 to 33? Who didn’t vote? There are 76 Senators. Anyway, I don’t believe the Government will go to a DD on that. It would be electorally very courageous. Aside from the usual union suspects there are some highly influential, ostensibly conservative unions out there too.

  22. cornlegend

    Kaye Lee
    Apparently Truss was pushing for the DD a night or 2 ago
    “Mr Truss, about to retire as Nationals leader, dropped his early-election bombshell while addressing more than 100 lobbyists and political donors at a National Party function on Tuesday night at Parliament House
    As Mr Truss declared his support for a snap election, National Party president Larry Anthony grabbed the microphone and reminded guests that the function was operating under “Chatham House rules”.
    The Fair Work (Registered Organisations) Bill, which seeks to hold union figures to the same standards and potential penalties as company directors, has been rejected twice by the Senate. It was most recently rejected last August – after its first rejection in March”

  23. Backyard Bob

    Taking the nation to a DD election is no small thing. I think there have only been 6 since federation and I’m prepared to exclude ’75. It’s a pretty risky thing I think to do it on the basis of something that might not offer you any significant electoral traction.

    Then again, we seem to be living in a period where a large portion of the Australian population have lost their collective minds, so, who knows.

  24. Kaye Lee

    The only reason for them to go to a DD would be to ride the Malcolm wave before it sputters out. Senators elected at a double dissolution elections are sworn in at the first sitting after the election, but have their terms backdated to the previous 1 July which makes July 2 a possible date. Because twelve Senators will be elected, they only need half the quota to get in and then they have to decide who stays for 6 years and who for 3 – it gets messy and could end up with more micro parties.

  25. David (other)

    Love it Corn, you’re a legend

  26. Matters Not

    Double dissolutions can easily get out of hand for the government of the day. More often than not, the ‘trigger’ is pushed into the background (if not forgotten entirely) and the election becomes like any other general election. Further, some people resent that they have to ‘vote again’ and lodge a protest vote.

    Minor parties, including the Greens love double dissolutions because, as pointed out above, the quota is halved. The Government and Opposition know that, so it will be interesting to see what changes they bring in to disenfranchise the ‘minors’.

    Senate quota: (Number of formal ballot papers / (Number of senators to be elected + 1)) + 1 = Senate quota.

    To put it another way: (Number of formal ballot papers) divided by (13) with 1 added to that result.

    The quota for Queensland in the last election was 374 209, so a quota in the order of 187 000 is likely.

  27. susan

    The signal that says Turnbull is going to an election will be the gifting of millions of dollars to his “rainmaking” friends. Also, why are poll results even quoted? All the polsters have records of how every phone number votes so rigging results is super easy.

  28. Kaye Lee

    Looks like Tony Windsor might run against Barnaby Joyce. I really hope he does.

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