Small victories. Worth celebrating.
Most of you know me. The writer of JAGGED. But let’s forget all that. Let’s dive into politics.
I live on the Sunshine Coast in Qld – LNP and Independent heartland. I live in the seat of Nicklin which the ALP has never been able to gain.
Over all the years my GREEN vote has been totally wasted here on the Sunshine Coast, I vote GREEN and I preference the ALP. I rock up each election year in the tender hope that my progressive vote will have some value and will make a difference. For the first time, in this year of 2020, my progressive GREEN vote and the attached Preference helped the ALP to secure the seat of Nicklin. Perhaps I will be thanked for that by the ALP … but history tells me that probably I will not be.
But I don’t care about that. For all the evident faults and lack of courage of the ALP they are so much a better choice of Government than the LNP. In life, small victories are worth celebrating, my progressive vote helped the ALP to secure victory in this stranglehold LNP seat of Nicklin. So to my GREEN and ALP friends … let’s share a Champagne. It might be a small victory … but it is sure as hell worth celebrating!
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As for winning nicklin, the ALP got the extra votes needed whilst you loonies did your usual hiving cash off labor, granted etheridge did well with a 0.1% increase to labor’s 9.3%.(wonder how much she had to shell out for her expenses?)
So sip your champers, keith, reflect on the last 11 years of no action on greenhouse gases and let the workers celebrate skelton’s win with a beer..
Well done Keith, it is a victory no matter how small, in the scheme of things. I’m in Buderim and and did the same, voting for a Green candidate I knew nothing about and had never heard of before, (apparently no cash to splash around) but had no luck. A blue ribbon seat for the Liberals. I’ll keep trying! Thank goodness at least that ghastly Steve Dickson, ex One Notion, trying again with all the hide of a buffalo, bombed out.
Keith – been voting exaclty the same for decades. It’s the preference that matters. Guess the ALP is populated by slow learners (the political reps aren’t) or at least can’t understand the importance of intellectual coalitions even though any political party is so composed. Ironically, if power is within reach – a coalition with The Greens will be formed. Just look at the ACT for evidence. Been doing it for decades.
Calling them ‘loonies’ is simply counter-producative which will result in a loss of face in the longer term.
Yes matters not , you may rationalise about the loonies and no matter what it takes. no matter how long it takes, they will force themselves on labor.
The loony boobby did well for brandt in 2019.
Remember the boy’s pragmatism created diludbransimkims so albo should lie back and think of london because the green blackmail style that created juliar is alive and well..
As for the ACT the loonies there , like the nationals, win seats, come back when you can win enough votes to have people with which to coalesce?
Too many people say to me that their vote doesn’t matter. Keith, you have proved them wrong.
Off your meds again, wam?
The ALP is a shambles akin to the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War who, despite their numerical advantages, foreign volunteers and prior control of government, couldn’t stop bickering amongst themselves long enough to recognise that they were being dudded from within.
If you honestly believe that the Labor Party is significantly less evil than the L&NPs, then you are significantly misinformed.
Keith, good to see you back and still demonstrating a well honed logic.
So, Drake, you are saying that the policies the ALP took to the last two elections were no better than the LNP?
I have no idea what motivates voters. People talk about the “silent majority” or the failure of “booby” or bickering amongst Labor members. But I remember that the Coalition trailed in polling for three years before the 2019 election.
In Queensland in that election the LNP won 23 of 30 seats to give the Coalition the win. In the Queensland state election this year the LNP were smashed by the Labor government.
Blame “booby” if you like, but booby had been telling Queensland that coal had to go. Of course it put the wind up the mining adherents, but that is the direction of energy – away from fossil fuels. Someone had to tell the fossil fuels people again. They are in for a big surprise. Adani is not performing well with coal and is also involved in producing renewables. What do the coal people in Queensland tell theirchildren about climate change?
Clive Palmer showed up with his anti-Labor urine-coloured advertisements in the Murdoch press, trawling for preferences to assist the LNP people.
Bill Shorten had worked hard along with the Party to produce a comprehensive suite of policies, which he explained in numerous tours and meeting halls. Yet in the end he was told he did not explain it all well enough.
What won for the Coalition was the matter of coal in Queensland and the accusation that Shorten was increasing taxation by not promising the tax reductions which the Coalition was promising.
Now we have a government which has no coherent set of policies, least of all on energy.
So a bit more on Labor’s “bickering”. In this case, Joel Fitzgibbon’s joust with Labor. See Joel’s piece “Industry shows way on climate”, (The Australian, 20/11/2020).
Joel begins with what his friend Woody said about how politicians are letting the climate change debate [sic] dominate while people are more interested in jobs, etc. He goes on to say that greenhouse gas emissions are down because trucks and machinery are cleaner, solar panels are more numerous, electric cars are increasing in number…
“Wind and solar farms are popping up all over and the projects are big in scale…additional firming power is required to keep the system stable as our older coal-fired generators reach the end of their physical lives…coal generation now struggles to compete with renewable generation and the most recently constructed coal generators will be the last to be built…
“We need to ditch the partisanship and the climate wars perpetuated by both the political left and right.”
In the end, he says, “both Labor and the LNP will pay a price for this madness.”
Industry, says Fitzgibbon, is investing in the technology of the future.
Where that leaves Joel and coal and gas and the Labor Party is not clear. But he makes some salient points which make sense.
See also at this site, the AIMN, the post about gas: “The Odour of Rotten Eggs”.
John Boyd re your question posed:
Actually that’s a difficult question to answer in any simple manner. Political hard-heads would argue that because victory didn’t result, then by definition. they were the wrong policies to present – particularly when the recent contest was supposedly an unloseable election for the ALP. But at a deeper and more significant level was it the case that Shorten lost or Morrision won? I’m in the camp that believes Shorten lost. Know many life-long Labor voters who jumped ship for the first time. (And the worry is they rarely come back as the DLP experience showed.)
Am also of the view that it’s emotion (as opposed to rationality) that decides how people, particularly swinging voters, cast their ballot. Shorten promised, for example, to end dividend imputation if it meant cash returns. Initially, that policy announcement meant that the net was to be cast widely meaning all shareholders (including pensioners) would lose money. Even though modifications were made at a later time that horse had bolted. Morrison was able to use the emotion of fear to cause citizens to vote against Shorten and effectively for Morrison.
Shorten admitted it was a mistake and Albo’s promised not to take that policy to the next election. Both now think it was the wrong policy to take. Not wrong in some absolute sense but in an election win/loss sense.
” I’m in the camp that believes Shorten lost.”
I’m in the camp that thinks the combination of anti-ALP, pro-LNP media and Clive Palmer’s advertising blitz are why the LNP won.
It doesn’t matter how good your policies are, nor how well you explain those policies, if the MSM do not report on them accurately and fairly.
Matters…Basically I agree with you in the sense that we ( I am a member of the ALP) were blindsided by the misleading and blatantly dishonest campaign waged by the LNP. My point is that the overall objective of the policies was to boost the health of the economy, and to shift the distribution of benefits from our economic growth down the income scale, countering the pattern of the last twenty years.
leefe and John Boyd – campaign strategists should anticipate (well in advance) the lines of attack that will come. All political organisations should prepare for that. Crying after the event is simply excuse making.
Accept that the MSM will be agin’ you. It’s a given. No ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes‘. Like night follows day.
The time for significant change comes after winning – and must be preceded by after a supposed independent inquiry. Look what the LNP are doing with the anticipated (legal) rise in the superannuation guarantee. The LNP don’t want to increase the percentage so they are preparing the ground and if they are successful it’s the punters who will want a (promised) increase in wages rather than an increase from 9% in super. Should be Politics 101.
No wonder the Shadow Treasurer Chris Bain was moved. BTW, the ALP has played some low tricks in the past. So let’s not complain when the tables are turned. It’s the winners that are the grinners. Become a winner.
You have the main points to the dividend franking credit imputation scheme, which was, by the way, introduced by Paul Keating in 1987.
Politics is not an exact science, not for politicians or for voters. There is a lot of emotion there, especially where money is involved.
An article at the abc.net.au (30/1/2019), “Will Labor’s dividend imputation policy overwhelmingly affect the lowly paid?”
Stuart Robert, in an address to the Alliance for a Fairer Retirement System said the poorly paid would be affected. And he spoke only of the poorly paid. It is a complex matter, not easily explained, even for the Tax Office. But one element of the matter is the fact John Howard allowed for “excess” imputation to be paid as cash refunds.
Shorten explained part of the problem of refunds. When they were were first introduced they cost government $550m a year. In 2014-15 they cost $5.9bn.
Labor made a “pensioner guarantee” and some other changes – but the panic set in through strong opposition, of course.
Now, with regard to Mr Stuart Robert. Again at abc.net.au, 30/5/2020: “Robodebt removed humans from Human Services”.
“Government to pay over $700m for wrongly claimed ‘robodebts’.
It’s a tough world out there. Any little win is a bonus.
guest – have forgotten much more than I remember about dividend imputation but as I recall there’s only a few countries that still persist with the scheme. Seems to me that it should be abandoned completely because it distorts share markets within Australia, particularly with regard to capital raising. Yes I take advantage of dividend imputation in a number of ways. First, through investing in Vanguard High Yield fund which is designed for investors attracted to dividend imputation. Second, through my superannuation fund.
And yes Politics is an inexact science mainly because it deals with human behaviour. To some extent people have free will and are notoriously emotionally unstable. Being rational seems only like a part-time occupation. Advertising is all about the emotions and that includes political advertising, Buyer’s regret comes much later. Too much later.
Labor won the recent Queensland election (partly at least) because Dee Madigan evoked memories of Campbell Newman. Expect Morrison to again raise dividend imputation in the next election. All emotion. But it works. Anticipate that.
Anyone can be fooled into giving the loonies cash(where do you think porline got the idea of making volunteer candidates pay for their own campaign??) and use the preference system. On several occasions I have given my cash to volunteers game enough to put themselves forward including the green candidates..
Draken you think keith is right to point to his vote for the loonies as being a small victory thereby equating a 0.1% increase as equal to a 9+% for labor??
That is like the loonies saying 10% in 150 seats should be compared to getting the over 50% needed to win in half a dozen seats.
Rationalise boys but you are dreaming.
Boobby’s trip would not have worried the workers in townsville but a mob of loonies screaming no coal and confronting the LNP idiots, including the armed forces, just hours before the vote exacerbated the effect of palmer, murdoch and little billy enough to lose two labor seats. Labor lost two seats in nth west tassie anyone with reasons?? I thought billy did well in beaconsfield??
No idea is a good start guest. did you notice how easy fitzmonkey got on the morning shows??? Anything anti-labor and the autocue journos wet themselves
My objections is to the timing of the caravan which was to inflictmaximum damage to labor and boost the southern latte set. It had all the hallmarks of a sharp extremist pragmatic lawyer and it worked to the merry tune of an extra $3m for the loonies.
Nice one Keith, well done !! Ditto on voting technique albeit I am in staunch Lib/Nat territory.
Voting as you do, Keith, without any sign of victory here, in Mad Hatter territory.
“leefe and John Boyd – campaign strategists should anticipate (well in advance) the lines of attack that will come. All political organisations should prepare for that. ”
And how do you combat it? What possible strategy is there to deal with deliberate wide-spread media manipulation, when you don’t have the power to compel fairness and those who do have that power refuse to use it?
As for “crying after the event” and “excuse making”, pointing out reasons is neither crying nor making excuses. And it’s not as though none of us expected this or failed to see it coming; but knowing and preventing are two different things.
leefe – you ask – How do you combat it? First – a question in return? Are you, personally, affected or effected by this advertising or media onslaught? Yes or No? Because I’d like to think I’m not.
Second, Palmer spent somewhere in the order of $5 million in the recent Queensland election and won approximately 0.6% of the primary vote. Almost a rounding error in any count of significance and he won not a seat. Indeed there’s no evidence his spending had any positive effect anywhere and there’s the distinct possibility it had the opposite effect.
This is not to suggest that his spending hasn’t had influence in the past but successful (negative) media campaigns have to have an element of credibility. Something to work with. In the recent Queensland election campaign, Labor had the presence of Newman’s media comments to work with. And such is his odious residue, it was significant enough, particularly with the public servants, Morrison had something to work with also in the last campaign and he did. Both Shorten and Albo admit that now. Yet it was predictable and predicted but effectively ignored. Chris Bowen (not Bain as mistakenly referenced above) and the economic brains trust were driving the policy bus and they had their eyes on the prize long before the campaign started in earnest. That shouldn’t happen again. It’s not policy that wins elections but how it’s marketed. Just ask Morrison.
Longer term. It’s essential that each and every person develop a critical consciousness or a crap detector that is switched on 24/7. And the citizens exercise it constantly even on sites such as this. Indeed – especially on what might seem like sympathetic entities. So, in a very real sense, I applaud your objections.
Thank you, Matters Not.
I understand Palmer spent at least $53.6m on the federal election in 2019. Only $5m on the state election.
As well, I am disappointed to hear how cunning and perceptive the Coalition people are, and how hopelessly incompetent Labor is.
Meanwhile, I have already enrolled in an MBA course.