By Allan Richardson
So Snowy 2.0 is going to be over budget? That puts it in the classification of ‘Project’. It’s time to put everything in perspective.
When drilling, or attempting to drill 27 kilometres of tunnels, it should come as no surprise that the geology is not necessarily homogenous (homogeneous if you talk proper) for the entire length of the tunnels. Although I imagine that the engineers were hoping for something more ground-breaking (sorry) than 150 metres of progress before Hades intervened with a sharp intake of sink hole. Can’t help bad analysis.
The laughable misrepresentation of the initial cost of the project of two billion Aussie dollars was never taken seriously by anyone, (including its proponents) when it was first announced, so there’s no point clutching your pearls after the event and crying foul.
If Snowy 2.0 approximates its anticipated cost of 12 billion dollars, it doesn’t even come close to the overrun of the initial budget of the construction for the Sydney Opera House, which recently celebrated its Golden Wedding. Congratulations! It delivered a bottom-line underestimation of just over 1,400%. So if Snowy Hydro 2.0 completes construction below, say, ’30 large’, it will be enthusiastically promoted by all those involved, the ringmaster of the media circus being the PM du jour, doggedly accompanied by the nodding NSW state leader of the same party. Despite the fact that (with luck) these leaders may not yet have even finished school at the time of writing, it will be lauded as a massive, well executed savings windfall.
I’d like to thank everyone involved, especially yada, yada, yada …
Remember that NSW disregarded the complex mathematical conundrum of ‘width of imported railway rolling stock’ relative to ‘tunnel width’, including allowances for ̶y̶o̶b̶b̶o̶s̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶c̶a̶n̶ ̶l̶e̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶u̶r̶t̶h̶e̶s̶t̶ sway. I personally know several thousand people who could manage such calculations, but clearly the laws of probability prevented anyone with such skills from participating in the decision-making process.
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Let’s not think for one minute that NSW is inexperienced in creating and bloviating on its many tunnelling clusterfucks. Credit where it’s due! Of course, Chris Minns is now totally responsible, since Morrison is unable to plead due to mental incapacity, and someone has to carry the can (of worms).
AUD 12,000,000,000 (only USD 7.67B) is a power of money. Despite SM 2.0 setbacks, including some unrealistically optimistic guesswork by professionals, the estimators were no doubt less concerned than usual about budgeting ‘inaccuracies’, with a Prosperity Gospelidiot PM egging them on at the time in support of future Photo-Ops.
The idea behind SH 2.0 is sound enough for the jottings on the back of a beer coaster one evening. We need to find everything we can to replace fossil fuel. Who knows; maybe thermodynamics may reappear as a useful contributor to the renewable energy market after Rewiring Australia hook’s ’em up, and my four handfuls of shares in ‘hot rocks’ may reach three figures! (in integers of cents).
We are setting aside 150 billion in tax cuts from people earning over 180k, an amount coincidentally including the base salary of even the most junior politicians. (Speaking of whom, where is Wyatt Roy nowadays?).
We’re also committing enough to the USMIC Virtual Nuclear Submarine Illusion (VNSI), or ‘allusion’ according to some wag, to more than supplement our gratuitous tax relieving, vote winning expenses to well over half a trillion bucks. You could get a few Snowys for that.
It’s time for a proportionate response to nature’s existential threats to civilisation, not to pacify shirt-fronting attempt by some jumped up warlord. Not to put too fine a point on it.
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