By Denis Bright
National elections in Germany and Australia in 2025 will test the global influence of the second Trump administration on domestic politics in more conservative Middle Powers. Both Germany and Australia in 2025 are Middle Powers in the context of these discussions as well as being firm loyalists in the wider military alliance.
Australia’s sovereign integrity was protected by its traditionally strong trading and investment ties with the countries of the Indo-Pacific Basin. However, even this positive area of Australian national sovereignty is a weakening force. DFAT data on foreign investment up to 2023 does show that investment from the US and Britain has a much higher profile in our economy including investment channeled through the Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Ireland and Malta. Such exotic investment hubs assist multinational companies in avoiding paying taxes in Australia and in their real host countries.
In comparison, the German economy has faced more significant problems in its post-COVID recovery.
Both Australia and Germany are also under pressure from US political leaders to increase defence spending to above 2 percent of GDP. This defence burden makes domestic economic management more difficult in both countries. These economic problems in Germany are evident in the lower rates of economic growth and income divides in Eastern German states which could benefit from higher levels of investment in infrastructure and community development to offset the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a growing political force which currently controls two states or landers.
Germany: United in Economic Challenges
The German state of Berlin and surrounding Brandenburg state have been affected by the national economic slowdown. Berlin state still has the third best performance of the German states in economic growth.
Cost-of-living politics has contributed to an upsurge in votes for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at German state elections. The AfD currently controls the coalition governments of two states in Eastern Germany in Mecklenburg and Thuringia.
Voters in both Australia and Germany have the right to bring changes to these political frameworks. Australia’s preferential voting system for the lower house of parliament avoids some of the lengthy negotiations after ambiguous election results in Germany. The SPD sometimes retains a minority role in Grand Coalitions stitched up to avoid partnerships with the AfD.
A Union Coalition between the emergent conservatives from the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) was a successful outcome with Angela Merkel as Chancellor (2005-21). In the Merkel-tradition, Australia’s own Anthony Albanese is also currently trying on a more independent cloak in relationships with China (ABC News 18 November 2024). Australia’s commitment to free trade agendas brought a favourable comment from China Daily (14 November 2024).
In current INSA polling from Germany, the Centre-left has no chance of forging a long-term majority coalition in 2025. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is a new addition to progressive politics in national polling. BSW’s political traction is slightly in decline on the latest polling.
Current INSA Polling in Germany Showing Percentage Changes in Support Levels
INSA Polling has quite speculatively been translated into possible seats in the German Lower House (Bundestag) after the forthcoming national elections:
The political leaders of Middle Powers in Germany and Australia need to address the going income and social divide in their own domestic constituencies. The SPD in Germany and Australian Labor have been more accommodating towards the US Global Alliance which brings a less than democratic influence into electoral and political decision-making in domestic politics because support for global strategic decisions is expected.
Statistica (2024) notes that the US still has 35,000 troops stationed in Germany. The Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation added that NATO announced the deployment of long-range US Nuclear Missiles in Germany from 2026.
Australia too has been the host for US Military Communication installations since the Cold War. AUSMIN issues annual leaders’ statements on annual negotiations about the strategic state of play after confidential meetings which bypass the need for open parliamentary debates on sensitive issues. Not commenting on operational and security matters are the usual responses from political leaders to media questions on these sensitive but fundamental political issues.
The AUKUS announcement on 16 September 2021 for the creation of an enhanced trilateral security protocol between the USA, Britain and Australia was the product of two years of secret negotiations between Prime Minister Morrison and his strategic ministers in Peter Dutton as Defence Minister and Marise Payne.
A strong activist base also scrutinizes domestic threats to national sovereignty in both countries. This resistance through direct action is a long way short of involvement in progressive national and state political administrations to work for change in policy directions. It is complemented by our still limited critical media reporting of the policy events that really matter through public broadcasting and that small range of independent outlets in a media web that is strongly under the influence of big corporate networks (Image: ICAN Germany).
The macro-themes of this article may not have a high profile in the mainstream corporate media but the role of Middle Powers in an increasing Imperial Order that is steered by these militarists and intelligence services is widely covered in international relations circles. Even the kindle editions of recent tomes on the role of Middle Powers are expensive. I noticed this reference which was published two years ago (Image: Amazon):
It encourages me to know that I am not alone in my concerns. Your comments are welcome through the Replies Button particularly if you have a viewpoint relating to Australia’s roles as a Middle Power in the global economy and its embedded strategic networks. All the Way With the USA as buzz words from late Harold Holt’s Government (1966-67) seem to have re-emerged with the Second Term of Donald Trump and strikes welcome cords of adulation from sections of the corporate media which are themselves under multinational control.
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