Political Futures: Prepare for the Onslaught from Professionalized Lobbyists

The AIM Network

8 months ago

By Denis Bright

Australia is quite vulnerable to political instability associated with future downturns in global trade and investment. Despite the current affordability crisis, market volatility is currently quite low in Australia largely because of our ties with dynamic Asian economies. Still, periods of market correction every 10-15 years challenge the policy skills of each generation of policy movers.

Even in times of low official unemployment levels, the latest polling from the Freshwater Group (AFR 15 April 2024) shows that Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 31 per cent after just two years in government.

This is a crucial loss of 1.8 per cent in Labor’s support base or 2 per cent after preferences. Only Peter Dutton’s flat preferred prime ministerial ratings are keeping Labor two-party preferred vote at 50 per cent within the usual margin of error in all responsible polling.

The key issues identified in the Freshwater Polling are cost-of-living (74 per cent), followed by affordable housing (41 per cent), health and social security (27 per cent) as well as economic management (26 per cent). Environmental management comes next on (19 per cent).

Voters are still playing a wait and see game with key voter priorities as shown by the large numbers of unresolved issues in these threads of public opinion.

Conservative lobbying groups have emerged to wedge public opinion in these indecisive times when interest in mainstream politics is not a popular past time. Voters have more narcissistic interests even in financially stressful times and tune-off against too much negative political rhetoric.

Mainstream political parties must stay ahead of these subversive framing and agenda setting games by offering policy solutions to the problems raised by minority groups to erode the remnants of Australia’s two-party system. The most important response is to promote policy solutions on those emotionally charged issues such as shortage of affordable housing, price increases for essential items, increased immigration and crime.

Introducing the Advance Conservative Lobbying Group

Advance uses its financial resources to assist in destroying the appeal of progressive spectrum of Australian politics.

The Guardian has covered the links between Advance and the Whitestone Strategic Group (Ariel Bagle and Sarah Basford Canales 1 March 2024). As a political player which espouses self-proclaimed mainstream values, Advance should be more open to public scrutiny relating to its sources of finance, local steering committees and national leadership coordinators.

A similar interpretation could be made of mainstream political parties in receipt of substantial amounts of public funding in proportion to the votes obtained at previous state or federal elections. Too much subterranean factional intrigue as well as excessive use of lobbyists and consultancy firms to keep political elites informed of community needs erode the primary votes of mainstream parties to add more fracturing to Australian politics.

Labor too needs to improve its current primary vote which was 32.6 per cent at the last successful national election to become less dependent on preference allocations from the Greens and progressive independents. Labor’s national primary vote in 2022 was 6 per cent lower than in 1996 when the LNP won by a landslide. It was 0.8 per cent below the landslide against Kevin Rudd in 2013.

Lobbying expenditure by Advance in 2022-23 was than campaign expenditure from GetUp!. This expenditure amounted to $7.8 million. These donations average eighteen dollars to raise $5.8 million from 19,288 donors in the last year to April 2024 (GetUp! web site). This campaign expenditure from GetUp! is crucial to the maintenance of a thriving democracy.

The AEC currently has limited control over less transparent third-party networks. These networks are required to submit returns of campaign expenditures but sanctions against offering misinformation to voters are less clear-cut. The AEC’s own media network did report action on complaints by two independent candidates at the 2022 Australian elections over signage authorized by Advance on trucks near pre-polling booths.

Yet another grey area relates to the harvesting of Postal Vote applications with individually addressed mail-outs to constituents particularly from the LNP.

Harvesting Of Postal Votes

Long before the arrival of Advance as a conservative lobbying group in 2018, dodgy strategies were used by the LNP at all levels of government to harvest postal votes in Queensland using Postal Vote Application Centres (PVAs). These are post office box addresses operated by the LNP to assist constituents to make use of the postal vote system. At the recent Brisbane City Council Elections, the PVA Centre was located at Post Office Box 938 in Spring Hill. Similar post-office box addresses paraded out at state and federal elections without sanctions from the AEC or state electoral commissions.

Having the various electoral commissions supplying the relevant form by mail-out to registered users of postal votes in the past is the best option to avoid coercive controls by well financed postal vote harvesting strategies.

Professor Emeritus John Wanna at Griffith University has criticized the use of PVA centres as a front for the LNP in the harvesting of postal votes (Enlighten Newsletter at Griffith University):

“This practice is not illegal under current legislation, but is it open and transparent? Does it observe the necessary proprieties of impartial electoral administration? Do electors know that their personal information is going to political parties before the form goes to the AEC?

This interference with the postal vote application process is nudging us down the Americanisation of electoral administration. The various systems of electoral administration used across the USA are fundamentally not impartial and operated by party political officials often for partisan advantage.

Voters should be worried about the transfer of their personal information to party headquarters without their consent. The new practice of re-routing the postal vote application process in Australia reflects an objectionable drift towards the Americanisation of our electoral process. It will tend to lessen the confidence Australians have in the impartiality of the electoral system, which is all important to our trust in democracy.”

The return of political autocracy has no place in potentially enlightened times through the spread of misinformation and dodgy harvesting of postal votes through PVA centres which are merely a front for a more right-wing LNP.

Gilbert & Sullivan lampooned the excesses of political intrigue in the HMS Pinafore musical long before the arrival of a more deceptive AI era in contemporary political manipulation. Queen Victoria’s empire was still in its ascendency. Neoliberalism offers new empires of power and influence with promotional avenues for aspiring leaders who still enjoy polishing the handles of big front doors to rewarding leadership paths with options of corporate board positions or new opportunities with lobbying and consultancy networks after retirement from politics.

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Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.